CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Some more research on numbers needed and as there is no cause of death given is open to pure speculation but did you know...

That on March 6th 2019 some 81 people had death notices on rip.ie and on March 6th. 2020 there were 101, a 25% increase. Is it possible that we had more deaths from CoVid19 in early March that just weren't recognised as such.

Maybe someone else can pick a random date between Jan 1st and March 13th and compare year on year

March 6 2019 was a Wednesday; March 6 2020 was a Friday. We'd need to find out whether there's any kind of weekly variation cycle in the posting of death notices and allow for that. We'd also need to look at what is the usual variation in numbers of notices posted from day to day. It's quite possible that a large part of a 25% difference could simply be accounted for by normal random differences. And you'd also need to allow for the fact that one of these winters might have been harsher than the other - the death rate is quite seasonal, and varies with the severity of the season.

In short, just picking a couple of days and comparing them is probably not going to tell you anything very useful, one way or another. A day-by-day or week-by-week comparison for the whole season, if it showed similar death rates up to a particular point, and thereafter an otherwise unexplained rising deaths trend in 2020.

Mr.Crinklewood

NO UPDATE IN 23 MINUTES!!!

Am I alone????

James 007

yes:eek: My name is COVID-19

Mr.Crinklewood

James 007 wrote: »

yes:eek: My name is COVID-19

Hello..

Nice to meet you...

Ahh balls!

Cyclonius

TravelTiger wrote: »

There will definitely be reverse placebo effects in our heads in coming weeks

I'd say you're very right on that one. Been thinking I had a headache myself at times.

The technical term is the nocebo effect, while mass psychogenic illness would also be related. On a larger scale, both would be tied into various events thoughout history, such as the dancing plagues in the middle ages (a real thing!). Couple of more interesting articles here and here. It's a fascinatig topic.

Frank Bullitt

Sounds like Trudeau has a big announcement here in Canada tomorrow.

My office told us all work from home for this week, but now all the stores for the company are shutting for 2 weeks.

The panic buying will kick up a gear now.

fits

So my panic buying supplies arrive today. Mattress and bedding so we can set up an isolation room in our office if needed. And a pulse oximeter. Myself and my husband can’t be sick at same time. Our twins are 3 - one has special needs - and no one else could mind them.

silverharp

https://twitter.com/notcapnamerica/status/1239001071735001089

lawrencesummers

whisky_galore wrote: »

An economist commenting on a health issue. I'd be as well to have a word with my car mechanic to see what his take on C19 is.

Fair point, businesses closing, travel restricted and tens of thousands out of work temporarily, mass cancellations would hardly have an effect on the economy....

lawrencesummers

Syncpolice wrote: »

Dunno is he worth a listen tbh

Prob just waffle to make him seem relevant

He gives a good run down on what’s happening with Oil, something that is very interrelated time the global issue Covid Is causing.

otnomart

murpho999 wrote: »

You do realise that the virus was probably here al ready before the likes of Italy happened.

Yes.
This post shows this very well.
"Looking at the sequences from Ireland, the one from Cork is actually the same as the very earliest ones from Wuhan."
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112826792&postcount=973

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/BrantlyWx/status/1239382230117634051

Lashes28

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If this was a war I would pick up a gun, but the worst part is the sense of being powerless.

And all you can do is sit around and watch the shît hit the fan in slow motion. It's surreal

Bowlardo

Does anyone know where we have an updated world went site with a map something like the have here
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

Gynoid

otnomart wrote: »

Yes.
This post shows this very well.
"Looking at the sequences from Ireland, the one from Cork is actually the same as the very earliest ones from Wuhan."
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112826792&postcount=973

Wow. I missed that post. Very interesting.

old_aussie

Italy records 368 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours as hospitals pushed to the brink

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/italy-records-368-coronavirus-deaths-in-24-hours-as-hospitals-pushed-to-the-brink

This may only be the tip of the iceberg for Europe

Xertz

I've some kind of cold now, so I'm going to have to self-isolate as I don't know what it is, but it seems very much like a cold.

Just put a groceries order through online and I'm assuming that will arrive in 7 days, should have enough food to keep going until then, so that's pretty much me locked in the house now for 13 more days.

drunkmonkey

otnomart wrote: »

Yes.
This post shows this very well.
"Looking at the sequences from Ireland, the one from Cork is actually the same as the very earliest ones from Wuhan."
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112826792&postcount=973

Christ I hope that's not true as I had read a while ago the Italian version isn't as deadly but the Wuhan one is wicked.

OneEightSeven

Ireland sample size is too small to get an accurate representation of the situation here, but I included anyway. Despite Germany being the 3rd oldest country on the planet, they have the lowest CFR out of all of the countries that have over 1,000 cases. Unlike the last table where I arranged it by median age, this one is been arranged by CFR.

Country | Median Age |Cases | Deaths | Case Fatality Rate
Italy |45.5 | 24,747 | 1,809 | 7.30%
Iran |30.3 | 13,938 | 724 | 5.19%
China |37.4| 80,860 | 3,199 | 3.97%
World | 30.4 | 169,719 | 6,518 | 3.84%
Spain |42.7 | 7,845 | 292 | 3.72%
UK | 40.5 | 1,391 | 35 | 2.51%
France |41.4| 5,423 | 127 | 2.34%
USA| 38.1 | 3,782 | 69 | 1.82%
Netherlands | 42.6 | 1,135 | 20 | 1.76%
Ireland | 36.8 | 169 | 2 | 1.18%
South Korea | 41.8 | 8,236 | 75 | 0.91%
Switzerland | 42.4 | 2,217 | 14 | 0.63%
Sweden | 41.2 | 1,040 | 3 | 0.28%
Norway| 39.2 | 1,256 | 3 | 0.23%
Germany| 47.1 | 5,813 | 13 | 0.22%

Blueshoe

Supposedly the army are being deployed.

Checking toilet paper quotas and checkpoints checking tax discs.

The army lol

silverharp

this is a cool story

https://twitter.com/ExponentialMed/status/1239409976617000960

Peregrinus

Xertz wrote: »

I've some kind of cold now, so I'm going to have to self-isolate as I don't know what it is, but it seems very much like a cold.

Just put a groceries order through online and I'm assuming that will arrive in 7 days, should have enough food to keep going until then, so that's pretty much me locked in the house now for 13 more days.

Not that I would discourage you from taking any precautions you can take, but Covid-19 symptoms look a lot more like the flu than like a cold.

nullzero

Blueshoe wrote: »

Supposedly the army are being deployed.

Checking toilet paper quotas and checkpoints checking tax discs.

The army lol

"When did you last wipe your arse"?

Oafley Jones

otnomart wrote: »

Yes.
This post shows this very well.
"Looking at the sequences from Ireland, the one from Cork is actually the same as the very earliest ones from Wuhan."
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112826792&postcount=973

A load of people I work with were sick from an extremely strong flu here at the start of the year here (Cork). Two in work thought they were going to die. I wonder about it now. If it was connected.

Xertz

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not that I would discourage you from taking any precautions you can take, but Covid-19 symptoms look a lot more like the flu than like a cold.

What I'm hearing is they can be rather asymptomatic / cold like if you either are in early stages of it or, luckily, don't develop anything too serious, but that it's still HIGHLY infectious.

So, I think I'm going to take precautions rather than wipe out some random person.

This is like a tickley somewhat dry cough and blocked nose, sore ear and a few other things.

I’m wondering what the end game here is? I understand the partial lockdown is to give the hospitals a fighting chance of dealing with this. But how long can we stay locked down? The government are implying the end of March but we all know it could be much longer. And what then?

I feel we’re kind of living in hope at the moment. Hope of a vaccine or that the illness will mutate into a more mild strain.

I think that we’re just gonna have to take the hit eventually.

Darc19

Oafley Jones wrote: »

A load of people I work with were sick from an extremely strong flu here at the start of the year here (Cork). Two in work thought they were going to die. I wonder about it now. If it was connected.

NO

lawrencesummers

One of the biggest things that could come out of this is the capacity the country has for testing.

Blueshoe

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’m wondering what the end game here is? I understand the partial lockdown is to give the hospitals a fighting chance of dealing with this. But how long can we stay locked down? The government are implying the end of March but we all know it could be much longer. And what then?

I feel we’re kind of living in hope at the moment. Hope of a vaccine or that the illness will mutate into a more mild strain.

I think that we’re just gonna have to take the hit eventually.

China is getting back to normal.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m wondering what the end game here is? I understand the partial lockdown is to give the hospitals a fighting chance of dealing with this. But how long can we stay locked down? The government are implying the end of March but we all know it could be much longer. And what then?

I feel we’re kind of living in hope at the moment. Hope of a vaccine or that the illness will mutate into a more mild strain.

I think that we’re just gonna have to take the hit eventually.

The basic plan is to spread out the hit, so that the chance of the health service being overwhelmed by demand is reduced. Or failing that, so the the degree to which the health service is overwhelmed by demand is diminished.

Retarding infection in the hope that, when people do become infected, more of them will get a milder strain is also something that would be hoped for, but it's less of a factor.

A vaccine has no relevance to the current outbreak. Even on the most optimistic assumptions, by the time a vaccine is developed, tested, produced and administered, the current wave of infections will have passed through the population, no matter how much we manage to retard it. Which is not to say that in the long term a vaccine might not be important and beneficial. But it's not a response to the present emergency.

Darc19

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’m wondering what the end game here is? I understand the partial lockdown is to give the hospitals a fighting chance of dealing with this. But how long can we stay locked down? The government are implying the end of March but we all know it could be much longer. And what then?

I feel we’re kind of living in hope at the moment. Hope of a vaccine or that the illness will mutate into a more mild strain.

I think that we’re just gonna have to take the hit eventually.

As people recover they become immune. So the trick is to get more and more carriers to recover and to social seperation to slow down the spread.

With a vaccine probably 6-9 months away from being available (they hope to start testing one within weeks), this is the best way forward.

Remember, for the vast majority, it's a two week mild virus. Not even as bad as flu.

The big problem is people with some respiratory issues, especially elderly, find it difficult to survive it and it is very contagious at close contact.

Antares35

Whats the deal with those mercy flights from Spain? Are those passengers not going to be at risk if they all flock to the airport at the same time? Especially in the case of elderly people who likely will not get an ICU bed if things get bad here. Would these people be better staying put? Genuine question.

pc7

Also if we can slow it it allows time for treatments to be tested and found (sooner than vaccine). There have been a number of drugs showing good signs. Not looking back for source but been mentioned a few times in previous threads, think Remdesivir is one.

kenmc

Blueshoe wrote: »

China is getting back to normal.

Is it really though? Or is that what we're being told? I'd love to believe it's true, but I'm sceptical. I'd be surprised if it can be so virulent yet suddenly stop and people can go back to work without a resurgence

Carbon125

Bowlardo wrote: »

Does anyone know where we have an updated world went site with a map something like the have here
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

Yes:

https://ncov2019.live/

Cork Boy 53

Blueshoe wrote: »

China is getting back to normal.

Maybe so but only after a severe lockdown after the first outbreak in Wuhan. No way does the same situation apply here.

Rob A. Bank

UK yesterday.

Castleford UK … score Castleford Tigers 28 : St Helens 14, attendance approx 8,000



Bath, UK :- Half marathon… 6.200 participants + many spectators



All these potential ‘Typhoid Marys’ will spread out all around the UK to add to the Crufts, football, concert and Cheltenham potentially infected crowds. And let’s not mention the Northern Ireland ‘Typhoid Marys’ crossing the border !

Seems like the totally irresponsible UK Tory Government strategy of ‘Herd Immunity’ by letting 60% of the British population, or 45 Million people be infected, was still ongoing yesterday.

:-(

Xertz

Is there a significant possibility we may have to quarantine the island from Britain?

Seems a lot of NI businesses and events are closing voluntarily anyway and seem to be following the more conservative approach.

DOCARCH

Blueshoe wrote: »

China is getting back to normal.

It's a big country! They still have tens of millions on total lockdown (probably until mid-April at least).

Blueshoe

kenmc wrote: »

Is it really though? Or is that what we're being told? I'd love to believe it's true, but I'm sceptical. I'd be surprised if it can be so virulent yet suddenly stop and people can go back to work without a resurgence

Yes it is. 30 of the 31 provinces are slowly getting back to normal. That famous hospital that was thrown up is now empty.

China had 22 new cases yesterday. They have won. Some people will be disappointed

Xertz

Where's the safest place in the world to be right now? Here's not looking or feeling like it nor is anywhere else in the EU or the US or Canada.

I'm almost wondering would we be better off ensuring we don't have it, testing quarantining and going to some part of China that's got it fully under control and just teaching English or something for a few years...

Darc19

GOOD NEWS

USA company is starting vaccine trials on humans today.

Australian company currently testing on animals

Another company is expecting to start in 3 weeks

Whilst it normally takes a further 12 months to be approved, you can take it that approval will be a lot quicker.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-us-cdc-trump-cure-seattle-covid-19-latest-a9403671.html

whiskeyman

Lashes28 wrote: »

And all you can do is sit around and watch the shît hit the fan in slow motion. It's surreal

You can practice good hygiene.
You can ensure you keep social distancing.
You can ensure you don't make unnecessary journeys.
You can try to ensure your friends and family do the same.

All the above is way harder than you think.
If it were easy, we wouldn't need government measures to help us.

Without us changing how we live, think and act, we won't beat this virus.

We all CAN make a difference!

sideswipe

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

UK yesterday.

Castleford UK … score Castleford Tigers 28 : St Helens 14, attendance approx 8,000



Bath, UK :- Half marathon… 6.200 participants + many spectators



All these potential ‘Typhoid Marys’ will spread out all around the UK to add to the Crufts, football, concert and Cheltenham potentially infected crowds. And let’s not mention the Northern Ireland ‘Typhoid Marys’ crossing the border !

Seems like the totally irresponsible UK Tory Government strategy of ‘Herd Immunity’ by letting 60% of the British population, or 45 Million people be infected, was still ongoing yesterday.

:-(

The winner of the Bath Half Marathon was Paul Pollock, an Irish Doctor and elite runner. You'd think he'd have more sense :mad:

ILoveYourVibes

Darc19 wrote: »

Whilst it normally takes a further 12 months to be approved, you can take it that approval will be a lot quicker.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-us-cdc-trump-cure-seattle-covid-19-latest-a9403671.html

A bit worrying its going through so fast. I understand but still

drunkmonkey

Darc19 wrote: »

As people recover they become immune. So the trick is to get more and more carriers to recover and to social seperation to slow down the spread.

Where has anyone shown to have built up an immunity to this? I haven't seen any evidence for this or seen it noted and I've been following this from the very start.

GooglePlus

Darc19 wrote: »

GOOD NEWS

USA company is starting vaccine trials on humans today.

Australian company currently testing on animals

Another company is expecting to start in 3 weeks

Whilst it normally takes a further 12 months to be approved, you can take it that approval will be a lot quicker.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-us-cdc-trump-cure-seattle-covid-19-latest-a9403671.html

Approval comes after its deemed safe, so I'd rather corners weren't cut.

I'd take my chances with the virus over a vaccine that messes me up down the road.

Xertz

Xertz wrote: »

Where's the safest place in the world to be right now? Here's not looking or feeling like it nor is anywhere else in the EU or the US or Canada.

I'm almost wondering would we be better off ensuring we don't have it, testing quarantining and going to some part of China that's got it fully under control and just teaching English or something for a few years...

Please tell me you're not being serious. Take some time off this thread if you are..

bmcc10

It is very surreal seeing what has unfolded past few days at home and globally.

Here in Japan it is life as normal crowded trains, crowded streets, crowded schools with hardly any measures or restrictions put in place surely the figures been released from here aren't accurate there is countries in lockdown with more cases daily it is all very worrying.

Xertz

Deleted User wrote: »

Please tell me you're not being serious. Take some time off this thread if you are..

No, I'm being perfectly serious. I've connections out there and I could just take a couple of years off and go.

It looks to me like Europe's going to be a complete mess and there's going to be a massive recession. The US isn't going to be a hell of a lot better or could be even worse. So, why not?

I'll probably lose my job anyway.

I've been through the 2008 crash and barely got out the other side, so just looking at options.