CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

amadangomor

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Interesting article from the Washington Post that has simulators that show how effective different strategies are at slowing the spread.

They seem to think the UK strategy won't work. Worth a look.

Blueshoe

Xertz wrote: »

No, I'm being perfectly serious. I've connections out there and I could just take a couple of years off and go.

It looks to me like Europe's going to be a complete mess and there's going to be a massive recession. So, why not.

I'll probably lose my job anyway.

China is now probably one of the safest now. They are furthest ahead .

Steven81

Xertz wrote: »

No, I'm being perfectly serious. I've connections out there and I could just take a couple of years off and go.

It looks to me like Europe's going to be a complete mess and there's going to be a massive recession. So, why not.

I'll probably lose my job anyway.

Get a bus/ train then go to the airport and then go on a plane. No fear of you catching it.

Humberto Salazar

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Maybe so but only after a severe lockdown after the first outbreak in Wuhan. No way does the same situation apply here.

They literally welded people's doors shut, disinfected the streets, severely curtailed movement. It was brutal. Many anecdotally, died in their own homes, they are finding out now. There have been some cases of re infection, and that is a huge worry. I would say they are still very cautious.

Irish_peppa

Centre of prague desserted 9am on Monday morning looks like something from that outbreak movie :eek:
https://www.earthcam.com/world/czechrepublic/prague/?cam=grandhotel_str

John Oiiver with a second look at COVID 19...

Xertz

Steven81 wrote: »

Get a bus/ train then go to the airport and then go on a plane. No fear of you catching it.

I'm probably going to get it anyway, if I don't already have it.

I haven't slept properly in days though so it could just be my brain melting at this stage.

Humberto Salazar

bmcc10 wrote: »

It is very surreal seeing what has unfolded past few days at home and globally.

Here in Japan it is life as normal crowded trains, crowded streets, crowded schools with hardly any measures or restrictions put in place surely the figures been released from here aren't accurate there is countries in lockdown with more cases daily it is all very worrying.

Looks like Japan sacrificing honesty and common good to get the Olympics to start on time. They should be cancelled.

silverharp

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

They literally welded people's doors shut, disinfected the streets, severely curtailed movement. It was brutal. Many anecdotally, died in their own homes, they are finding out now. There have been some cases of re infection, and that is a huge worry. I would say they are still very cautious.

the door welding was fake news in many cases, they were welding side doors in apartment buildings so that there was controlled access from a main entrance.

Lord Trollington

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Ireland sample size is too small to get an accurate representation of the situation here, but I included anyway. Despite Germany being the 3rd oldest country on the planet, they have the lowest CFR out of all of the countries that have over 1,000 cases. Unlike the last table where I arranged it by median age, this one is been arranged by CFR.

Country | Median Age |Cases | Deaths | Case Fatality Rate
Italy |45.5 | 24,747 | 1,809 | 7.30%
Iran |30.3 | 13,938 | 724 | 5.19%
China |37.4| 80,860 | 3,199 | 3.97%
World | 30.4 | 169,719 | 6,518 | 3.84%
Spain |42.7 | 7,845 | 292 | 3.72%
UK | 40.5 | 1,391 | 35 | 2.51%
France |41.4| 5,423 | 127 | 2.34%
USA| 38.1 | 3,782 | 69 | 1.82%
Netherlands | 42.6 | 1,135 | 20 | 1.76%
Ireland | 36.8 | 169 | 2 | 1.18%
South Korea | 41.8 | 8,236 | 75 | 0.91%
Switzerland | 42.4 | 2,217 | 14 | 0.63%
Sweden | 41.2 | 1,040 | 3 | 0.28%
Norway| 39.2 | 1,256 | 3 | 0.23%
Germany| 47.1 | 5,813 | 13 | 0.22%

When you say average age.. the average age of what exactly? Infected ?

Xertz

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Looks like Japan sacrificing honesty and common good to get the Olympics to start on time. They should be cancelled.

It's reminding me a little of their reaction to the Fukushima disaster - "What meltdown. Let's just stop talking about this!"

Tordelback

Blueshoe wrote: »

China is getting back to normal.

In China the Cheltenham crowd would have been welded into the RDS Simmonscourt hall and left there. It's not comparable.

Weird times. People leaving China in their droves. People talking about going to there to escape Europe.

I thought 2020 was going to be mad because of Brexit.. Who could have foreseen this.

2xj3hplqgsbkym

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

I just have to vent my frustration here for a sec.

My nine year old nephew has been waiting for heart surgery since this time last year. His surgery has been due to go ahead and has been cancelled on the day, on no less than eight occasions in the past twelve months. My 60 year old mother (who looks after my brother who has special needs), drives four hours to look after their other kids each time the surgery has been scheduled. The surgery is due to happen on Wed this week.

I just know that it's going to be cancelled and I've been begging my mother not to go up for fear one of them will give the virus to her. They're in a major, major hot-spot.

I offered to go in her place, but she's so stubborn and my sister is just completely demented from worry so it's a fraught situation. I'm going to put my foot down on Tuesday if it still hasn't been cancelled by then. I'll set fire to the feckin house if it comes to it. That would potentially result in less collateral damage.

Your sister must be distraught. However with a child who is unwell, she hopefully has been very careful lately. If your mother wants to go that is her choice. If the surgery went ahead and she wasn’t there for her daughter she would probably be distraught.

gozunda

Re closing borders. Looks like our overlords in Europe are doing just that.

Coronavirus: Germany to close borders with France, Austria and Switzerland to contain spread of Covid-19 and panic-buying

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-germany-update-news-borders-closed-panic-buying-stockpiling-a9403061.html

Unbelievable that we were told that no restrictions on travel to and from those countries where the majority of our cases originated from was possible in ths interest of EU 'open borders'

Time our politicians to grow a pair and look to restricting travel to and from the UK in response to their policy of allowing mass infection amongst their population and an inevitible impending public health crisis there

The last thing we need is a situation where we become overrun by those fleeing the UK.

a_squirrelman

A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

What?

lawrencesummers

sideswipe wrote: »

The winner of the Bath Half Marathon was Paul Pollock, an Irish Doctor and elite runner. You'd think he'd have more sense :mad:

(Northern) Irish.
The difference might be small for somethings but from a medical point of view it appears to be massive

Supercell

Even though infections are not going up in China officially , they still very much are fighting this. You still cannot buy any cold or cough medicine in the pharmacies, anyone thought to be sick at all is marched straight to the hospital and put in a ward with a bunch of other potentially/actually infected. We are all still a long way away from "normal" again.

a_squirrelman

a_squirrelman wrote: »

A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

What?

Probably insurance.

Blueshoe

Tordelback wrote: »

In China the Cheltenham crowd would have been welded into the RDS Simmonscourt hall and left there. It's not comparable.

Their economy took a whopping though. Down up to 25% in some sectors such as manufacturing. They have been lauded for releasing the figures. Normally they keep the info to themselves.

faceman

Los Angeles taking a pro active move and going on lockdown from Tuesday. More and more US cities are realising what needs to be done despite government advice.

CDC said mass gatherings of 50+ people should be cancelled for next 8 weeks

Wibbs

sideswipe wrote: »

The winner of the Bath Half Marathon was Paul Pollock, an Irish Doctor and elite runner. You'd think he'd have more sense :mad:

Changing his name by deed poll to Paul Pillock seems apt. Fcuking moron.

Xertz

a_squirrelman wrote: »

A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

What?

It's to do with insurance, costs, contracts and all sorts of things. Without an official order to close, they end up absorbing a lot of costs.

The government needs to actually make hard decisions on these things otherwise, a lot of companies will go to the wall trying to close voluntarily and it's not out of meanness.

You're talking about very small, often very vulnerable businesses.

Xertz

Blueshoe wrote: »

Their economy took a whopping though. Down up to 25% in some sectors such as manufacturing. They have been lauded for releasing the figures. Normally they keep the info to themselves.

Our theoretical GDP could well be fairly stable or even go up due to demands for certain pharma products, fiddling around with IP locations and so on, but the real economy here is very likely to be in big trouble.

Also we're doing fairly well with a lot of services sector and IT companies, finance, fintech etc etc and so on that can actually work around these disruptions. Big manufacturing economies are in a lot more trouble.

Germany for example could really take a big hit.

Less of a safety net as well for small business owners? Something about not getting the same unemployment benefits?

Xertz

Deleted User wrote: »

Less of a safety net as well for small business owners? Something about not getting the same unemployment benefits?

There's generally very little safety net if you own a business, although there are benefits to it too. However, in terms of social welfare entitlements you're usually in a situation where you'd be on means tested allowances rather than accrued benefits through PRSI. Although, that has improved a bit in the last budget.

I'd be worried about small businesses, micro businesses, one-man-band type operations and also a lot of people who are on extremely precarious contracts / work casually.

There are a lot of people out there who are business owners and work as freelancers and so on who are really not very well off at all.

They'll definitely need some kind of access to support for a while until they can get back to where they were or do something else.

Realistically though, we're looking at a global recession. There's no way around that.

SEPT 23 1989

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Probably insurance.

Insurance won't cover this

Some of the biggest companies in the world are not insured for this

pjohnson

Tordelback wrote: »

In China the Cheltenham crowd would have been welded into the RDS Simmonscourt hall and left there. It's not comparable.

We should be so lucky to do that

murphaph

Xertz wrote: »

Our theoretical GDP could well be fairly stable or even go up due to demands for certain pharma products and so on, but the real economy here is very likely to be in big trouble.

Also we're doing fairly well with a lot of services sector and IT companies, finance, fintech etc etc and so on that can actually work around these disruptions. Big manufacturing economies are in a lot more trouble.

Germany for example could really take a big hit.

Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?

Xertz

The only thing I could say that may be a positive on the economic side of it is that the whole world is in the same boat. The US, EU, UK, Japan, (the entire West) and also China and most of Asia are all in the same mess.

If it were just one or two countries, audacious mountain moving type fiscal approaches wouldn't happen. They will for this.

There's going to have to be some kind of massive global fiscal restart, and I would suspect they will just allow the Fed, the ECB and others to pull various stunts to 'create' money and alter the rules of the game.

I think we're really back at the post WWII Bretton Woods type scenario where the global economy's going to have to be rebuilt.

This thing is potentially as disruptive as world war, albeit without the horrors of an actual war. We'll still have our infrastructure and the enemy is a virus. So, nobody's invaded, attacked, maimed, carpet bombed or nuked anyone. Although there'll be a death toll.

ILoveYourVibes

Totally going to change the way we live tho.

Ohmeha

My DART station totally quiet this morning

Tordelback

Blueshoe wrote: »

Their economy took a whopping though. Down up to 25% in some sectors such as manufacturing. They have been lauded for releasing the figures. Normally they keep the info to themselves.

Indeed. But 25% is going to seem like a momentary flutter compared to what's going to happen here and in most of the EU in the coming months. The modern economy and financial world is such a delicate confidence trick that it can't absorb this unprecedented shock. States are really going to have to prove their worth working out alternatives to get us through.

drunkmonkey

a_squirrelman wrote: »

A man from the Restaurants Association on Radio 1 now saying "we want to close but the government need to tell us to close"

What?

That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.

Rob A. Bank

A good graphic on this page, showing the effects that intervention and it's timing have on the bell shaped curve of infection.
Keep scrolling down to see the interactive graphic and move the yellow line to change the timing

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html?action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=Opinion

An early aggressive intervention has an enormous effect.

(The figures are for America, but the lessons are broadly applicable to any country.)

Xertz

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.

There's also issues with things like business rates, and other things that could be paused for the duration of this and really need to be as there's no revenue to pay them from and there's no point in bankrupting small businesses that are viable and would bounce back.

Cork Boy 53

Xertz wrote: »

No, I'm being perfectly serious. I've connections out there and I could just take a couple of years off and go.

It looks to me like Europe's going to be a complete mess and there's going to be a massive recession. The US isn't going to be a hell of a lot better or could be even worse. So, why not?

I'll probably lose my job anyway.

I've been through the 2008 crash and barely got out the other side, so just looking at options.

IMO if you have that option then go for it. Things are going to be really bad in this part of the world for a long time to come.

sligeach

They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever, punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are still being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

• Indoor mass gatherings of 100 people or more should be cancelled. FAIL
  
  
• Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL
  
  
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL
  
  
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL
  
  
• Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

Where's the Government intervention for these failures?

limnam

murphaph wrote: »

Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?

The same people who bought them during the last bust.

Xertz

murphaph wrote: »

Who is going to buy IT services when everyone else has lost their jobs?

There'll still be demand for a lot of that stuff - even if it shrinks back it's not going away and a lot of those companies are here for major tax advantages too, and market access reasons, so it isn't really as precarious as life for small export businesses and so on.

Take for example, the social media companies - they're probably going to be seeing a major upswing in use, not a downturn.

All I'm saying is they're less exposed in the big IT companies and so on than they would be if they were making widgets for sale.

China now risks a huge problem in the sense that their domestic manufacturing economy has sunk by 25% and domestic demand is down. That's now going to be hit with a massive fall in global demand for manufactured goods.

I'm not saying Ireland's immune to this. However, we may not be as badly impacted as countries that are very much more dependent on nuts and bolts manufacturing of consumer goods.

New Home

Again, travelling for work is a NECESSITY, going for a few scoops IS NOT.

Having said that, viruses can't count, and public transport is a disgrace.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

sligeach wrote: »

They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

• Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL
  
  
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL
  
  
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL
  
  
• Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

Where's the Government intervention for these failures?

The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.

Sweet.Science

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's the problem a lot of business have business interuption insurance and aren't covered unless there orderd to close by the government or local authorities. I'm in the same boat. The louder the public scream for it to happen the better if they want a business to come back and work in.

Covered by who? Insurance policies have exclusions for stuff like this . Wont be covered . A lot of pubs/restaurants wont recover

stephenjmcd

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.

Once again there is no lockdown

Happy4all

sligeach wrote: »

They've closed the pubs because some people were irresponsible over the weekend, but whatever punish the masses for the sins of a few(not that it affects me, I'm off the drink). And yet here we are Monday morning and people are being crammed like sardines onto train carriages. From the HSE:

• Avoid close contact with people - keep a distance of 2 metres (6.5 feet) between you and others. FAIL
  
  
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze. FAIL
  
  
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. FAIL
  
  
• Avoid spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact. FAIL

Where's the Government intervention for these failures?[/quot


Forced to go to work. Hour and a half commute on bus. None of above possible. No government outrage.

kingshankly

Folks I’m a train driver I can tell ya there is very little cramming this morning very eerie

Blueshoe

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

The army lockdown is coming tomorrow if this thread last night is to be believed.

Too many movies being watched

1641

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably insurance.

There was an article in one of yesterday's papers to the effect that, after the 2009 flu pandemic, most insurance companies added a clause to specifically exclude global pandemics from corporate cover. It said that before WHO officially declared a pandemic last week companies might have an arguable, but difficult, argument for cover but this would have disappeared with the WHO declaration.

It really is something else when Vietnam on the other side of the world is stopping tourism from all of Europe and bringing everyone to a military camp to be tested and maybe put in quarantine because some people brought it here from England. While travel between say Ireland the Great Britain is still going on.

Asian countries are doing a hundred times as much to actually combat it when it's in the earlier stages. It seems things have to go crazy in Europe for something to happen.

twomonkeys

Lord Trollington wrote: »

When you say average age.. the average age of what exactly? Infected ?

It’s the average age of the population of the country.