The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Bobeagleburger

Are the UK doing much testing yet? Northern Ireland were doing 40 tests a day. Think we are doing 4000.

Can't trust their active cases numbers. The death rate will be the figure to watch in the UK to see where they're at.

bilston

I believe NI is doing 1,100 tests a day now.

paleoperson

Into the ignore list we go.

bilston

Breakdown of UK deaths

England - 521 (89.2%). 84.3% share of pop
Wales - 28 (4.8%). 4.7% share of pop
Scotland - 25 (4.3%). 8.2% share of pop
Northern Ireland - 10 (1.7%). 2.8% share of pop
Total - 584


Scotland and Northern Ireland faring better than England and Wales.

serfboard

Smegging hell wrote: »

'The death toll has risen from 475 to 578, health officials have confirmed'. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52056534

At 578, the UK are moving up the charts in the measure that I look at from this table, deaths per million (DPM).

The UK is currently at 9 DPM, still a good bit behind the country that has surprised me most, The Netherlands (25DPM). Probably a lagging factor of a week or more in the UK's case.

meeeeh

Netherlands went for herd immunity and fairly lac approach at the beginning.

4068ac1elhodqr

On the topic of this virus and ze royales, didn't one of them make a funny bantz about it years ago (not so funny now eh?).

In 1988, the Duke of Edinburgh joked about deadly viruses when speaking to Deutsche Press Agentur.
Prince Philip reportedly said:

“In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation.”

Loverly, just loverly.

Memnoch

So according to a user comment on the telegraph website, it seems that Ferguson has indicated they will have to revise the "excess" numbers downwards.

“Ferguson has already pointed out that numbers will have to  be adjusted down to count only EXCESS deaths which means eliminating those deaths which would likely have imminently occurred anyway from other causes, and also the sepsis cases where it is not CV specifically causing the death anymore than it is any other trivial infection which generates the gross immune over-reaction that is the effective cause of death in sepsis cases.“

This would be matched by what is noted in this telegraph article:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

They have now changed their reporting pattern. They are now going to be reporting at 2 PM the numbers from the previous day from 5 PM to 5 PM. This gives them approximately 20 hours to rework the “raw” numbers should they have chosen to do so. If they have changed their method of counting these then this would essentially be a complete fudge to hide the devastation that COVID-19 is going to wreck on that country.

So now it is not possible to be sure if we can trust the (mortality) numbers coming out of the UK as comparable to what is happening in Italy, Spain or France.

Today, they have reported 115 deaths as of 5 PM yesterday. If those numbers have been revised we can only imagine what the real number looks like as this could be up to three times higher than what is being reported by the UK Government.

They would seem to be saying that any elderly people who are dying as a result of this would have died anyway and so therefore should not be counted. This is the philosophy of the British elite.

Joe_ Public

Memnoch wrote: »

So according to a user comment on the telegraph website, it seems that Ferguson has indicated they will have to revise the "excess" numbers downwards.



This would be matched by what is noted in this telegraph article:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/

They have now changed their reporting pattern. They are now going to be reporting at 2 PM the numbers from the previous day from 5 PM to 5 PM. This gives them approximately 20 hours to rework the “raw” numbers should they have chosen to do so. If they have changed their method of counting these then this would essentially be a complete fudge to hide the devastation that COVID-19 is going to wreck on that country.

So now it is not possible to be sure if we can trust the (mortality) numbers coming out of the UK as comparable to what is happening in Italy, Spain or France.

Today, they have reported 115 deaths as of 5 PM yesterday. If those numbers have been revised we can only imagine what the real number looks like as this could be up to three times higher than what is being reported by the UK Government.

They would seem to be saying that any elderly people who are dying as a result of this would have died anyway and so therefore should not be counted. This is the philosophy of the British elite.

Article paywalled but get the gist of it. Ferguson just plucking that two-thirds figure from the air? Sounds like it and comes across as callous with it.

Dont see there that they will be manipulating the figures. I can't imagine they could think they'd get away with it. Tomorrows death figure should be a lot higher given the revised reporting timeline so will be interesting to see. If they try to spin it, as Ferguson seems to be hinting, i can see it going badly for them. Sounding like something trump would come out with there.

bob mcbob

bilston wrote: »

Breakdown of UK deaths

England - 521 (89.2%). 84.3% share of pop
Wales - 28 (4.8%). 4.7% share of pop
Scotland - 25 (4.3%). 8.2% share of pop
Northern Ireland - 10 (1.7%). 2.8% share of pop
Total - 584


Scotland and Northern Ireland faring better than England and Wales.

It is only going to get worse in England (London) if this report is anything to go by. A surge expected end of next week

NHS chiefs are concerned that the London Ambulance Service is already so stretched it will struggle to cope with the 100 extra patients a day it is expected to have to take to hospital.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/nhs-to-move-nurses-to-london-to-help-with-coronavirus-tsunami

Water John

London hospitals will reach capacity this weekend.

gmisk

My folks are a bit dismayed with the UK response (especially the NI one which is where they live).
They have also been really impressed with Tony Holohan and the HSE briefings.

My mum is a retired health visitor and still does clinics. The government up there seem to be a shambles, two days ago all visits to baby's etc were cancelled, now today they want them to re book them all in again....madness.

VinLieger

bob mcbob wrote: »

It is only going to get worse in England (London) if this report is anything to go by. A surge expected end of next week

NHS chiefs are concerned that the London Ambulance Service is already so stretched it will struggle to cope with the 100 extra patients a day it is expected to have to take to hospital.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/nhs-to-move-nurses-to-london-to-help-with-coronavirus-tsunami

I know a london ambo driver who has tested positive, they have been given a week off work and then are to return to duty..... things are fvcked there

Darc19

People thought China was hiding numbers, UK is taking the biscuit with blatant massaging of figures.

There are almost 5,000 requiring hospital care out of just over 11,000 cases.


That's multiple times the hospital admissions of other countries.

It suggests that the UK is now the epicenter of the virus in the world and will probably outpace Italy on deaths.

This will also mean a substantial number of irish people due to the population of irish over there.

Jayzee.

Rise of over 100 deaths so looks pretty bleak there for sure

They haven't done s lot of testing , that's why the numbers are off

CelticRambler

Darc19 wrote: »

It suggests that the UK is now the epicenter of the virus in the world and will probably outpace Italy on deaths.

Nope - that honour now belongs to the US. The number of deaths in New York alone will probably overtake the UK in the next few days, and the number of deaths in New Orleans is rapidly overtaking one EU country after another.

For all that I'm critical of the Johnson government's approach to this disease, I wouldn't get too het up about the "massaging of figures" - the figures you're seeing in France are "massaged" in a similar way, in that they only include people who've died in hospital. There's an acknowledged explosion of deaths in pensioners' care homes, but they're not being counted either ...

robinph

Darc19 wrote: »

People thought China was hiding numbers, UK is taking the biscuit with blatant massaging of figures.

There are almost 5,000 requiring hospital care out of just over 11,000 cases.


That's multiple times the hospital admissions of other countries.

It suggests that the UK is now the epicenter of the virus in the world and will probably outpace Italy on deaths.

This will also mean a substantial number of irish people due to the population of irish over there.

There is nothing being hidden in there, they have been open that those infected numbers are totally incorrect.

As for yesterday's 100 deaths and the day before having only 40, that was down to a change in the reporting times and the 40 only covering an 8 hour period on Wednesday.

The information to explain the weird numbers is out there if you cared to look.

splinter65

Darc19 wrote: »

People thought China was hiding numbers, UK is taking the biscuit with blatant massaging of figures.

There are almost 5,000 requiring hospital care out of just over 11,000 cases.


That's multiple times the hospital admissions of other countries.

It suggests that the UK is now the epicenter of the virus in the world and will probably outpace Italy on deaths.

This will also mean a substantial number of irish people due to the population of irish over there.

Totally wrong.

meeeeh

CelticRambler wrote: »

Nope - that honour now belongs to the US. The number of deaths in New York alone will probably overtake the UK in the next few days, and the number of deaths in New Orleans is rapidly overtaking one EU country after another.

For all that I'm critical of the Johnson government's approach to this disease, I wouldn't get too het up about the "massaging of figures" - the figures you're seeing in France are "massaged" in a similar way, in that they only include people who've died in hospital. There's an acknowledged explosion of deaths in pensioners' care homes, but they're not being counted either ...

I think Italians and UK count deaths similarly.

I don't think totals are that important, it's how countries can cope. Italy and Spain can't, I think UK can.

Peregrinus

meeeeh wrote: »

I think Italians and UK count deaths similarly.

I don't think totals are that important, it's how countries can cope. Italy and Spain can't, I think UK can.

Italy has a better-resourced health system than the UK - more ICU beds per head of the population, more doctors per head, more nurses per head. It's not clear to me why you would think that the UK can cope if Italy cannot.

robinph

Peregrinus wrote: »

Italy has a better-resourced health system than the UK - more ICU beds per head of the population, more doctors per head, more nurses per head. It's not clear to me why you would think that the UK can cope if Italy cannot.

Whilst London has the majority of UK cases, it is also far better resourced than just the north of Italy when that had a far bigger percentage of the Italian cases than London has of the UK's cases. The dispersal of cases around the country makes it far harder to try to stop before it gets out of hand, but it does relieve the pressure on one location and give a bit more time to get things in order.

meeeeh

Peregrinus wrote: »

Italy has a better-resourced health system than the UK - more ICU beds per head of the population, more doctors per head, more nurses per head. It's not clear to me why you would think that the UK can cope if Italy cannot.

What I meant is UK can at the moment. It can turn but most countries were better prepared than Italy on what was coming. Spain for what I suspect were political reasons allowed demonstrations of 100's of thousands of people. People in other countries saw what was going on and took things seriously. Living arrangements where families often live in the same house as grandparents don't help.

Melanchthon

robinph wrote: »

Whilst London has the majority of UK cases, it is also far better resourced than just the north of Italy when that had a far bigger percentage of the Italian cases than London has of the UK's cases. The dispersal of cases around the country makes it far harder to try to stop before it gets out of hand, but it does relieve the pressure on one location and give a bit more time to get things in order.

It also has a young population, still wouldn't want to live there

careless sherpa

robinph wrote: »

Whilst London has the majority of UK cases, it is also far better resourced than just the north of Italy when that had a far bigger percentage of the Italian cases than London has of the UK's cases. The dispersal of cases around the country makes it far harder to try to stop before it gets out of hand, but it does relieve the pressure on one location and give a bit more time to get things in order.

Surely the concentration of cases swamps the health service in that location

ambro25

careless sherpa wrote: »

Surely the concentration of cases swamps the health service in that location

It's a logical conclusion, and certainly validated e.g. in France, wherein both Alsace-Moselle and the Paris region, the worst-hit regions, are shipping cases out by plane & TGV to other regions' ICUs (and neighbouring countries, we've taken some here in Luxembourg), due to maxed-out capacity (including in recently set-up ad hoc field hospitals).

Penn

Now Boris has tested positive for Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200?s=20

Donald Trump

Penn wrote: »

Now Boris has tested positive for Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200?s=20

Will he make the Darwin awards for going around and making a point of still shaking people's hands? Between himself and that fella who was licking toilet seats and then caught it and was crying about it


Maybe he doesn't have it anyway. Might be a lie for sympathy.

timhenn

Is Boris just hiding?

Beasty

Looking forward to seeing the video conferences of him in his PJs from his sick-bed...

Donald Trump

timhenn wrote: »

Is Boris just hiding?

Quite possibly. Anyway, must have an amazing recovery for him to have been bad enough to be tested and then have recovered so quickly to get back to his salubrious lodgings.


https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1240776914693951496