The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

J Mysterio

Beasty wrote: »

Threads merged

Which?

Strazdas

double jobbing wrote: »

Compliance was hardly rock solid here. Never seen as many little howiyas loitering about in groups as this year.

We were lucky that the leftie protests here happened in the death phases for one thing. The virus is still on fire in the UK and the riots can't have helped it.

Do you mean teenagers? They were never going to be an issue in spreading Covid-19. If you read all the settings for community transmission in Ireland, I don't think we heard even once of a group of teenagers in a park or on the street being the source of an outbreak.

double jobbing

Strazdas wrote: »

Do you mean teenagers? They were never going to be an issue in spreading Covid-19. If you read all the settings for community transmission in Ireland, I don't think we heard even once of a group of teenagers in a park or on the street being the source of an outbreak.

Why? Like children they are seldom to never susceptible to infection?

theological

double jobbing wrote: »

The UK is only sightly behind us in the re opening timeline, and the recent protests and a spate of raves last night across the North seem to show the public has effectively given up the lockdown.

It's interesting to compare them vs us.

Today they have confirmed 1514 new cases in a population of 68 million.

They have 14 times the population of the Republic of Ireland and we have confirmed 8 cases, or less than 0.5% of the UK. And those 1514 cases would largely exclude N.I, whose cases have per capita not been wildly out of kilter with outs.

A similar per capita number for us to the UK mainland would be 104 daily cases. We barely hit that this week never mind daily.

We last hit these numbers in early to mid May, before a single lockdown measure was lifted bar the increase from 2km to 5km.

Is the virus there to stay in the UK for the foreseeable? Is it time the government put some clarity out there? Banning Irish citizens, never mind tourists, from coming back from there?

You do realise that a minority of people are going to raves like this. I find it a bit odd when people say, there was a rave in Manchester and then extrapolate this to be true of the entire country.

It is obvious that there is still some way to go in the UK. It is worth pointing out that 1514 is the cases that were reported on a given day, not the daily tally of cases.

A helpful graph for seeing this is the daily number of lab confirmed cases in England by date on the Public Health England tracker which classifies the number of daily cases based on the specimen date. It is under 500 every day and has been for a good week now.

In the coming weeks I'm expecting that to drop even further. Deaths will more than likely be in the 10s across the UK by the end of June if the current trend continues.

Peregrinus

theological wrote: »

. . . In the coming weeks I'm expecting that to drop even further. Deaths will more than likely be in the 10s across the UK by the end of June if the current trend continues.

Eveything you say is true, but the current trend is the product of the containment measure that have been in force for the past six weeks or so, plus the readiness of people to observe/comply with them. If there is any change in either of these factors then we should not expect the current trend to continue. Since there will be changes in one, and possibly both, of this factors we should spend less time thinking about what would happen were the current trend to continue, and more time thinking about how to monitor and rapidly identify the effect of the changes on the future trend.

theological

Peregrinus wrote: »

Eveything you say is true, but the current trend is the product of the containment measure that have been in force for the past six weeks or so, plus the readiness of people to observe/comply with them. If there is any change in either of these factors then we should not expect the current trend to continue. Since there will be changes in one, and possibly both, of this factors we should spend less time thinking about what would happen were the current trend to continue, and more time thinking about how to monitor and rapidly identify the effect of the changes on the future trend.

Sure, but we have had 2 rounds of relaxation so far without an increase in infections.

May 11th (meeting people outdoors) and June 1st (meeting people in gardens, and schools reopening limited year groups) seem to have had little impact. I guess this is the reason they have provided 2 - 3 week gaps between relaxations so that they can monitor the impact of the previous before determining it is wise to move onto the next.

Peregrinus

theological wrote: »

Sure, but we have had 2 rounds of relaxation so far without an increase in infections.

May 11th (meeting people outdoors) and June 1st (meeting people in gardens, and schools reopening limited year groups) seem to have had little impact. I guess this is the reason they have provided 2 - 3 week gaps between relaxations so that they can monitor the impact of the previous before determining it is wise to move onto the next.

Sure, but it doesn't follow tha the next relaxations will have the same result. Each relaxation is an independent event.

And the UK really does need to be cautious. While the situation has been improving steadily, it hasn't been improving as fast as might be wished. Other countries that have been badly hit - Italy, France, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands - have, once they turned the corner, secured markedly more rapid improvements than the UK has. Of countries that were badly affected but have "turned the corner" I think only the US and Iran have enjoyed slower declines in death rates than the UK. What this suggests is that, for whatever reason, the UK's recover is more fragile than recoveries in similar countries.

This is not to blame the UK, since we aren't saying why the UK's recovery has this characteristic - just to urge extreme caution and a high degree of vigilance.

lainey_d_123

Just back from the pharmacy.

Two young female British Asian pharmacists on duty - not a mask between them. Tried to take a photo as proof, since some people who don't even live here seem to think they know better than I do who is wearing masks, but they saw me and told me not to. One other person in the pharmacy, white British guy in his 60s - also no mask.

On the busy crowded street I went down to get there, I saw 3 other people in masks the entire way. People heading into coffee shops and food shops without a care in the world, bunching together looking at fresh produce and whatnot.

What is it with the British and the arrogance of refusing to do what everyone else sees as common sense and basic decency? They whinge about how long the lockdown is going on and then refuse to do even the bare minimum to try to stop the spread of the virus. Absolutely mindblowing.

petes

But aren't face masks only mandatory on public transport in the UK?

ancapailldorcha

petes wrote: »

But aren't face masks only mandatory on public transport in the UK?

TfL have mandated them from today, yes.

Enzokk

This government is a joke.

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1271768171385696258?s=20

But allowing Cheltenham and Liverpool against Atletico Madrid was okay because mass gatherings didn't provide any risk. Make it up as you go along.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

TfL have mandated them from today, yes.

Not just TfL. The rule applies on all public transport in England and there will be fines for non-compliance.

I think Grant Shapps said the first few days will be lighter touch with temporary masks being handed out to those who don't have them.

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Just back from the pharmacy.

Two young female British Asian pharmacists on duty - not a mask between them. Tried to take a photo as proof, since some people who don't even live here seem to think they know better than I do who is wearing masks, but they saw me and told me not to. One other person in the pharmacy, white British guy in his 60s - also no mask.

On the busy crowded street I went down to get there, I saw 3 other people in masks the entire way. People heading into coffee shops and food shops without a care in the world, bunching together looking at fresh produce and whatnot.

What is it with the British and the arrogance of refusing to do what everyone else sees as common sense and basic decency? They whinge about how long the lockdown is going on and then refuse to do even the bare minimum to try to stop the spread of the virus. Absolutely mindblowing.

Anecdotal examples, extrapolated principle.

Indoors is also different to outdoors. I agree that they should be definitely mandated in shops, but there's not really a strong argument for insisting that people wear them outdoors.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

But allowing Cheltenham and Liverpool against Atletico Madrid was okay because mass gatherings didn't provide any risk. Make it up as you go along.

It's not a joke, it's a double standard. An unaccountable, unelected advisor can drive hundreds of miles and it's fine. Sporting events can proceed and it's fine but people march in solidarity with BLM and that's somehow outrageous.

Rigor Mortis

Enzokk wrote: »

This government is a joke.

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1271768171385696258?s=20

But allowing Cheltenham and Liverpool against Atletico Madrid was okay because mass gatherings didn't provide any risk. Make it up as you go along.

No fan of the UK Government, but every government in Europe is learning as it is going along.

Cheltenham etc was stupid but that doesnt mean that lessons cant be learned.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not a joke, it's a double standard. An unaccountable, unelected advisor can drive hundreds of milesand it's fine. Sporting events can proceed and it's fine but people march in solidarity with BLM and that's somehow outrageous.

It's worth pointing out also that there was no distance restriction anywhere in the legislation even in the first version of it. Driving between two places is perfectly safe. You're in a tin can that is your car. It was always permitted.

The legislation and the guidance focussed more on the reasons why you are outside and who you should be gathering with. That would have been my issue with what you describe in that scenario.

Both situations you describe were completely unacceptable. Cummings for risking the lives of family members, and the protesters for gathering in the middle of a public health crisis.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

You do realise that a minority of people are going to raves like this. I find it a bit odd when people say, there was a rave in Manchester and then extrapolate this to be true of the entire country.

It is obvious that there is still some way to go in the UK. It is worth pointing out that 1514 is the cases that were reported on a given day, not the daily tally of cases.

A helpful graph for seeing this is the daily number of lab confirmed cases in England by date on the Public Health England tracker which classifies the number of daily cases based on the specimen date. It is under 500 every day and has been for a good week now.

In the coming weeks I'm expecting that to drop even further. Deaths will more than likely be in the 10s across the UK by the end of June if the current trend continues.

Also worth pointing out that the PHE graphs only deal with hospital/Pillar 1 testing so it gives no indication of what is happening in the community. Have they eradicated community spread? Doubt it somehow. And those figures, along with other measures, while significantly lower than peak have been quite stubbornly uniform, occasionally showing slight rises, over the past week or so. R rate is precariously balanced as well so while I'm not trying to dismiss your level of optimism, which I understand on a human level, the risks are there for all to see.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Also worth pointing out that the PHE graphs only deal with hospital/Pillar 1 testing so it gives no indication of what is happening in the community. Have they eradicated community spread? Doubt it somehow. And those figures, along with other measures, while significantly lower than peak have been quite stubbornly uniform, occasionally showing slight rises, over the past week or so. R rate is precariously balanced as well so while I'm not trying to dismiss your level of optimism, which I understand on a human level, the risks are there for all to see.

Not true, the testing figures include all testing even from commercial suppliers.

Also - there haven't been "rises", both on the Public Health England figures, or the KCL Zoe tracker figures. The 7 day rolling average is the key figure to follow.

Where I would agree with you is that the decline is slow, but the fact that the R has held whilst measures are being eased is good news. Progress is still being made.

lainey_d_123

petes wrote: »

But aren't face masks only mandatory on public transport in the UK?

Yes, which is ridiculous. How is the risk any smaller in a supermarket, small food shop or pharmacy than a train carriage? Either masks help to stop the spread and we should wear them in all enclosed spaces, or they don't. These arbitrary rules are pathetic. I have to wear a mask on the tube to go to work in a supermarket but once I'm at the supermarket, I can stand there without one, talking at and breathing on hundreds of people a day?

Riiiiight.

Enzokk

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

No fan of the UK Government, but every government in Europe is learning as it is going along.

Cheltenham etc was stupid but that doesnt mean that lessons cant be learned.

And yet other countries were planning to play behind closed doors before this went ahead. They were learning as it was happening as well, just seemed quicker to learn from the same situation.

timetogo1

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Yes, which is ridiculous. How is the risk any smaller in a supermarket, small food shop or pharmacy than a train carriage? Either masks help to stop the spread and we should wear them in all enclosed spaces, or they don't. These arbitrary rules are pathetic. I have to wear a mask on the tube to go to work in a supermarket but once I'm at the supermarket, I can stand there without one, talking at and breathing on hundreds of people a day?

Riiiiight.

Yes it is ridiculous. It should be one simple rule for all scenarios. Most people have cop on but there are plenty that don't so we have to legislate for the lowest common denominator.

For me, I can choose when to go to the supermarket and can mostly avoid people. If I have to use public transport for work, I've no choice and have little opportunity to avoid the people that cram on.

As well as that as you mention small food shops or pharmacy the numbers going into those is severely restricted so keeping the 2m distance is easy enough, I've found. On a bus, train its not so easy when you're entering / exiting.

Rigor Mortis

Enzokk wrote: »

And yet other countries were planning to play behind closed doors before this went ahead. They were learning as it was happening as well, just seemed quicker to learn from the same situation.

Im not arguing that. I think the uk have handled badly. I am taking issue with the posters point that because cheltenham went ahead that there should not now be warnings about mass gatherings.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Not true, the testing figures include all testing even from commercial suppliers.

Also - there haven't been "rises", both on the Public Health England figures, or the KCL Zoe tracker figures. The 7 day rolling average is the key figure to follow.

Where I would agree with you is that the decline is slow, but the fact that the R has held whilst measures are being eased is good news. Progress is still being made.

Have you looked at the latest phe weekly surveillance report which gives combined P1 and P2 figures? If you want to believe that there are less than 400 cases daily across england thats up to you.

Problem here is you can just cherrypick whatever data you want, bump up or ignore trends as you see fit. It is what the government does, after all - dont hear much about alert levels nowadays for example. I could show a rising trend, albeit slight, in hospital admissions and an increasing r rate. Doesnt mean everything is going to go belly up again, just would lead me to more caution than optimism.

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1271075468930887681?s=20

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have you looked at the latest phe weekly surveillance report which gives combined P1 and P2 figures? If you want to believe that there are less than 400 cases daily across england thats up to you.

Problem here is you can just cherrypick whatever data you want, bump up or ignore trends as you see fit. It is what the government does, after all - dont hear much about alert levels nowadays for example. I could show a rising trend, albeit slight, in hospital admissions and an increasing r rate. Doesnt mean everything is going to go belly up again, just would lead me to more caution than optimism.

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1271075468930887681?s=20

I wasn't talking about the surveillance report. I was talking about the graph with the cases by specimen date on the PHE dashboard.

If you're just looking for a gotcha moment, I'm not really interested in discussing with you. If you're interested in talking about something coherently please respond to what I said rather than what I didn't say.

The PHE testing isn't a full picture. I agree. But no country has a "full picture" from its reporting data. What the PHE data does show is that as testing has increased, the number of recorded cases have decreased. We can still see that the trend is downward.

If you want probably more accurate data, I'd recommend using the KCL Zoe COVID tracker data. Which by the way, is also declining.

The R rate isn't increasing nationally. If you take the top ranges on some of the studies you could say that it is regionally, but only if you choose the most pessimistic scenario rather than concluding based on all of the data. This is probably why the SAGE figure is the best to go with.

lainey_d_123

timetogo1 wrote: »

Yes it is ridiculous. It should be one simple rule for all scenarios. Most people have cop on but there are plenty that don't so we have to legislate for the lowest common denominator.

For me, I can choose when to go to the supermarket and can mostly avoid people. If I have to use public transport for work, I've no choice and have little opportunity to avoid the people that cram on.

As well as that as you mention small food shops or pharmacy the numbers going into those is severely restricted so keeping the 2m distance is easy enough, I've found. On a bus, train its not so easy when you're entering / exiting.

Do they though? I don't know which group round here is worse, the white working class British who believe everything the government says, the middle class yuppie British who think the rules don't apply to them, or the groups of slack jawed Pakistani and Bangladeshi men standing around in groups of 15 like absolute bellends, making comments to passing women, playing horrible music and just generally being a nuisance. People who are sound and behaving considerately are significantly in the minority in this sh1thole part of east London.

I can't fcuking get out of here fast enough.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

I wasn't talking about the surveillance report. I was talking about the graph with the cases by specimen date on the PHE dashboard.

If you're just looking for a gotcha moment, I'm not really interested in discussing with you. If you're interested in talking about something coherently please respond to what I said rather than what I didn't say.

The PHE testing isn't a full picture. I agree. But no country has a "full picture" from its reporting data. What the PHE data does show is that as testing has increased, the number of recorded cases have decreased. We can still see that the trend is downward.

If you want probably more accurate data, I'd recommend using the KCL Zoe COVID tracker data. Which by the way, is also declining.

The R rate isn't increasing nationally. If you take the top ranges on some of the studies you could say that it is regionally, but only if you choose the most pessimistic scenario rather than concluding based on all of the data. This is probably why the SAGE figure is the best to go with.

No need to be so tetchy. I know the graph you were referring to and it's not the full picture. The weekly report gives the total breakdown per week (by date of specimen taken) of both P1 and P2 so it is a significantly higher number. Which is why i linked it. That is all.

The kings college data tells us daily infections are in 5k region so if you like that, I'd say let's go with them. Ons broadly in line too.

The r rate across the UK is estimated at between 0.7 and 0.9. Not all that long ago the estimated figure was between 0.5 and 0.9.

Unless they were or are lying or simply mistaken about it, it has increased.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

No need to be so tetchy. I know the graph you were referring to and it's not the full picture. The weekly report gives the total breakdown per week (by date of specimen taken) of both P1 and P2 so it is a significantly higher number. Which is why i linked it. That is all.

The kings college data tells us daily infections are in 5k region so if you like that, I'd say let's go with them. Ons broadly in line too.

The r rate across the UK is estimated at between 0.7 and 0.9. Not all that long ago the estimated figure was between 0.5 and 0.9.

Unless they were or are lying or simply mistaken about it, it has increased.

I'm only tetchy when you change the goalposts from what I'm discussing. The PHE data does provide a useful snapshot, and it does show the trend declining.

The KCL data also shows that there was a 47% decline in estimated daily cases in a week.

So the figures are all moving in the right direction. Even if the R number held at what it is, that would be a good result because a number below 1 means that cases are declining and we can evidence that in the data.

What it does mean is that the decline is quite slow, and naturally it'd be desirable for that to be lower. The easing that we've seen so far hasn't had a detrimental impact however. I'm pretty confident that the measures that are in place now won't either.

Despite what lainey_d_123 suggests anecdotally, the data suggests that most Britons are observing the guidelines and perhaps aren't as stupid as he suggests they are.

hmmm

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Yes, which is ridiculous. How is the risk any smaller in a supermarket, small food shop or pharmacy than a train carriage? Either masks help to stop the spread and we should wear them in all enclosed spaces, or they don't. These arbitrary rules are pathetic. I have to wear a mask on the tube to go to work in a supermarket but once I'm at the supermarket, I can stand there without one, talking at and breathing on hundreds of people a day?

The risk isn't the same - a supermarket you are generally not in extended close contact with strangers for an equally extended period of time. If you go into a supermarket and start touching everything, and hugging everyone, and having long chats with strangers then yeah that's probably riskier, but that's not how most people act.

The best thing we can probably say about the UK response is that the population are just about managing to make up for a grossly incompetent government through their individual actions, and they have paid a terrible price for that incompetence.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

I'm only tetchy when you change the goalposts from what I'm discussing. The PHE data does provide a useful snapshot, and it does show the trend declining.

The KCL data also shows that there was a 47% decline in estimated daily cases in a week.

So the figures are all moving in the right direction. Even if the R number held at what it is, that would be a good result because a number below 1 means that cases are declining and we can evidence that in the data.

What it does mean is that the decline is quite slow, and naturally it'd be desirable for that to be lower. The easing that we've seen so far hasn't had a detrimental impact however. I'm pretty confident that the measures that are in place now won't either.

Despite what lainey_d_123 suggests anecdotally, the data suggests that most Britons are observing the guidelines and perhaps aren't as stupid as he suggests they are.

Changing the goalposts?! I pointed to a graph that is detailing the same data only to a fuller degree. Nobody is saying it doesnt show a declining trend. Just that, yes, it is declining more slowly than is desirable and there are indicators suggesting a risk of the decline reversing. Fair play to you for your sense of optimism, i sincerely hope it isnt misplaced.

Btw testing is a joke. We have no idea of how many they test anymore. Story in observer yesterday that they were posting twice as many kits out to care homes as ordered, just to bump up the numbers.

Also, only 20% of those traced were actually contacted by Hancock and Didos "army" of tracers. And the new app? Doesnt work in tower blocks apparently.

And they're thinking of going to 1m and relax further restrictions? I would be a bit nervous if this affected me tbh.

lainey_d_123

hmmm wrote: »

The risk isn't the same - a supermarket you are generally not in extended close contact with strangers for an equally extended period of time. If you go into a supermarket and start touching everything, and hugging everyone, and having long chats with strangers then yeah that's probably riskier, but that's not how most people act.

The best thing we can probably say about the UK response is that the population are just about managing to make up for a grossly incompetent government through their individual actions, and they have paid a terrible price for that incompetence.

You are, though. You can easily be 15-20 minutes waiting to pay, with people standing up your arse and nobody wearing a mask. When I got the train into work, I was only on it 10-15 minutes.

I think masks should be compulsory in all indoor spaces, as they are in most of the continent. Why even take the risk? If someone coughs or sneezes near you in a shop, you're at enormous risk compared to if both of you are wearing masks. Why would you not want as much protection as possible? They're uncomfortable and annoying to wear but I'd rather that than get Covid.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Changing the goalposts?! I pointed to a graph that is detailing the same data only to a fuller degree. Nobody is saying it doesnt show a declining trend. Just that, yes, it is declining more slowly than is desirable and there are indicators suggesting a risk of the decline reversing. Fair play to you for your sense of optimism, i sincerely hope it isnt misplaced.

Btw testing is a joke. We have no idea of how many they test anymore. Story in observer yesterday that they were posting twice as many kits out to care homes as ordered, just to bump up the numbers.

Also, only 20% of those traced were actually contacted by Hancock and Didos "army" of tracers. And the new app? Doesnt work in tower blocks apparently.

And they're thinking of going to 1m and relax further restrictions? I would be a bit nervous if this affected me tbh.

It isn't to a fuller degree though the graph based on daily lab confirmed specimens is based on all tests.

My optimism is based on concrete and observable data points. There's still a long way to go, but this scaremongering (bolded) is just unhelpful.

I don't know where you get the 20% figure from. The BBC seem to suggest that two thirds provided contacts and 85% were reached. For the first week of the scheme I would say it is a good effort. It needs to improve and no doubt it will.

It is better than doing nothing, if considerable amounts of people are contacted and heed the advice those are thousands of potentially infectious people taken off the street.