The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

theological

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

3 months of lockdown and we're still at almost 200 deaths a day and four figure cases.

Wow.

Week on week it is dropping. Last Wednesday's figure was 245. Admittedly it is slow, but progress is being made and the world is becoming more normal week by week. The UK is very much through the worst of this and that's good news.

One other thing to note is that the 184 deaths are not the people who died today. They are the deaths that happened to be recorded today, some of which may even go back weeks. The figure for how many people actually died today is likely much lower.

robinph

Joe_ Public wrote: »

£900,000 to paint a plane. Money well spent for "promoting Britain" says Oliver Dowden.

I wonder how performance arts people will be feeling after that briefing, facing the threat of thousands and thousands of job losses and best culture minister can do is to say they'll be having "further discussions" to see what more they can do. While at the same time he brags about all the work they put in to get the premier league up and running again to improve morale and please all the foreign owners and players who make up the majority of personnel.

Just did a quick Google and seems that $100,000 is about the cost for painting a 777. That is a lot of extra money for someone to come up with a design that is basically going to be white and with a union flag on the tail.

lainey_d_123

theological wrote: »

Week on week it is dropping. Last Wednesday's figure was 245. Admittedly it is slow, but progress is being made and the world is becoming more normal week by week. The UK is very much through the worst of this and that's good news.

One other thing to note is that the 184 deaths are not the people who died today. They are the deaths that happened to be recorded today, some of which may even go back weeks. The figure for how many people actually died today is likely much lower.

Sure, but would you not still expect double figures by now? Has any other country continued to report such high figures so long after the first few cases?

dogbert27

theological wrote: »

Week on week it is dropping. Last Wednesday's figure was 245. Admittedly it is slow, but progress is being made and the world is becoming more normal week by week. The UK is very much through the worst of this and that's good news.

One other thing to note is that the 184 deaths are not the people who died today. They are the deaths that happened to be recorded today, some of which may even go back weeks. The figure for how many people actually died today is likely much lower.

I've tried my best but nope, can't find the small print that states this post has been sponsered by the UK Government! :pac:

theological

dogbert27 wrote: »

I've tried my best but nope, can't find the small print that states this post has been sponsered by the UK Government! :pac:

This is silly. I'm acknowledging that the decline is slow, but week on week there's significant progress.

I'm happy to criticise. For example, its pretty ludicrous that the government are now saying the contact tracing app won't be coming until winter. That's a huge cockup, and I'm happy to say that.

From the Politico London Playbook newsletter:

KICKED INTO THE LONG GRASS: The long-expected NHS COVID-19 contact-tracing app, which was promised for mid-May and deemed to be a crucial part of the government’s strategy to reduce the rate of infection, might be delayed to the winter, according to Health Minister James Bethell. Speaking to the House of Commons science and technology committee, he said: “We’re seeking to get something going before the winter but it isn’t the priority at the moment.” Earlier today, Downing Street said there is “no update” on when the app would be up and running.

What I'm not happy to do is to claim that the UK isn't making a lot of progress in respect to the death figures and the transmission figures when it has.

dogbert27

theological wrote: »

This is silly. I'm acknowledging that the decline is slow, but week on week there's significant progress.

I'm happy to criticise. For example, its pretty ludicrous that the government are now saying the contact tracing app won't be coming until winter. That's a huge cockup, and I'm happy to say that.

From the Politico London Playbook newsletter:


What I'm not happy to do is to claim that the UK isn't making a lot of progress in respect to the death figures and the transmission figures when it has.

The UK government has made a balls of this from the very beginning so much so that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland eventually started making their own decisions on what was best for their countries as they did not trust Boris Johnson's government.

Johnson's government allowed Cheltenham to go ahead, allowed 800 supporters of Atletico Madrid enter Liverpool for a CL game instead of forcing a postponement of the game.

In the height of the pandemic they were receiving flights from China and Italy with no health checks in place at the airports.

They hid behind every decision with "they were following the science" as if the British scientists knew better than the rest of Europe.

Boris Johnson was the only world leader to have contracted the coronavirus and been hospitalized because he carelessly said he would continue to shake peoples hands.

They eventually implemented strict lockdown rules on the population only for the government advisor to break them because he was "following his instinct" and apparently that was okay if you read the small print.
Boris Johnson's heavy support of this eventually broke the population who were adhering to the strict rules to say "fxxk it" and that's when control was lost.

To "regain" control and save face Boris Johnson then ignored the science they were supposed to be following and started opening up randomly with no thought or rationale.

While you see the positive in declining figures, this was natural from the duration of while people remained in the lockdown state.

With restrictions being lifted that seems too early and mass protests the current decline will be reversed and we will start seeing a rise again.

The question then will be will Boris Johnson resort to the original response of herd immunity as they can't afford the economy to take the second hit.

Peregrinus

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Sure, but would you not still expect double figures by now? Has any other country continued to report such high figures so long after the first few cases?

The US.

Peregrinus

theological wrote: »

. . . What I'm not happy to do is to claim that the UK isn't making a lot of progress in respect to the death figures and the transmission figures when it has.

It depends on what you mean by "a lot of progress".

Is the death rate much lower than it was at the height of the pandemic? Yes, it is.

But, has the UK acheived the kind of reduced death rates that other similarly-situated countries have acheived? No, it hasn't. Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands - all have seen faster declines in the death rate than the UK has.

As noted above, the US has performed worse than the UK in this regard. Of European countries, the only ones to have secured slower declines in the death rate than the UK are, I think, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine and Moldova. (And Russia, where the death rate is still climbing.)

So, yeah, the fall in death rates in the UK is certainly welcome. But it's also appropriate to ask why it's not happening faster. Is there anything the UK could do differently, to match the kind of improvements that they have secured in France, Germany, Italy and Spain?

daithi7

dogbert27 wrote: »

While you see the positive in declining figures, this was natural from the duration of while people remained in the lockdown state.

With restrictions being lifted that seems too early and mass protests the current decline will be reversed and we will start seeing a rise again.

The question then will be will Boris Johnson resort to the original response of herd immunity as they can't afford the economy to take the second hit.

Dogbert, will you please post on here when the death rate due to Covid rises above yesterday's daily death rate again (250 iirc)?

I very much hope & doubt this will ever occur. Why?

- because the trend is downwards thankfully

- we're out of season for flu

- the chances of a second spike are historically only 50 % or less

- the monitoring & managing mechanisms of this pandemic are improving.

'Sorry' to be so bullishly optimistic in the face of your dystopian tirade, but I felt it was necessary for some informed balance!!!


P.s. I am no fan of the UK government or Boris, both who have been proven pathetically weak in the face of this crisis (& Brexit)

Sheep_shear

serfboard wrote: »

Your level of apprehension of Covid is only informed by anecdotal evidence of those you know?

No, not only. The stats too. Why would that be surprising?

theological

The KCL COVID tracker estimates the number of daily cases to be 3612 a 26% reduction from last week.

It is interesting that the regions with the lowest daily infection per million people are now:
Scotland, the South West, Wales and the South East (excluding London).

Leroy42

While it is encouraging to see the number decline, one cannot forget that the UK government made a complete an utter omnishables of this.

Close to 60k dead at this stage, the worst hit in the EU, one of the worst in the world. They started with as many pluses as one could expect. Prior knowledge, a good scientific knowledge base, good health care, financial might to be able to respond, access to partners (EU and US in particular), a largely understanding and compliant public and a media on message.

And they manged to completely and royally screw it up. And lied throughout the process. And manipulated figures, and blamed others. And promised things they had no ability to deliver.

The general population should be calling for the resignation of each member of that cabinet. It is completely shameful how they clearly put politics in front of the country. When all this is over Johnson, Hancock and even the scientists involved should be regarded in the light of one of the biggest failures in British history.

Joe_ Public

It's just a shame really that when they set out to be "world beating" in all aspects of their crisis response, the one place the government should almost managed it is in the fatality statistics. Not sure if that's what the pm was referring to that time he bragged about their "apparent success."

Enzokk

Wasted time.

https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/1273592249755021314?s=20

If this is true, why didn't they see a problem from this when it was launched? It seems obvious that the problems with their centralised model would mean a move to the decentralised Apple/Google model.

I mean, forget the problems with data security, the power usage of the centralised version would put off most people if it drains your battery in any way you would notice, which this does by most accounts.

But can you believe they are painting the plane blue white and red!!!!

robinph

Enzokk wrote: »

But can you believe they are painting the plane blue white and red!!!!

I think there are technical reasons why most planes are mostly white, such as the paint being significantly lighter in weight and whilst not an issue for this plane as it's no Concorde, they can over heat if painted the wrong colour.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

Wasted time.

https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/1273592249755021314?s=20

If this is true, why didn't they see a problem from this when it was launched? It seems obvious that the problems with their centralised model would mean a move to the decentralised Apple/Google model.

I mean, forget the problems with data security, the power usage of the centralised version would put off most people if it drains your battery in any way you would notice, which this does by most accounts.

But can you believe they are painting the plane blue white and red!!!!

Of course I can believe it.

I don't know if it was for propagandising purposes or just that the government wanted to keep a close eye on its citizens beyond what was reasonable for the current pandemic.

When you look at the NHS's history in IT, why anyone would want a centralised governmental tracking app is something I will never understand.

ancapailldorcha

robinph wrote: »

I think there are technical reasons why most planes are mostly white, such as the paint being significantly lighter in weight and whilst not an issue for this plane as it's no Concorde, they can over heat if painted the wrong colour.

It's the blue passport fiasco all over again though. If there are technical reasons in favour of white paint, why wasn't that chosen to begin with?

Enzokk

robinph wrote: »

I think there are technical reasons why most planes are mostly white, such as the paint being significantly lighter in weight and whilst not an issue for this plane as it's no Concorde, they can over heat if painted the wrong colour.

It is a change though for this aircraft as they are usually painted grey I believe. Look at that, they have us talking about a £900K paint job instead of the app that will be changed. They are either geniuses or they screw up so much that the small screw ups create a permanent white noise to quieten the sounds of the big screw ups. I mean did you see the second most important (officially) person in government talking about the BLM movement today? I refuse to believe this is planned to take away focus from other stories, I will believe incompetent politicians will say and do stupid things which will be in the news all the time to cover for the big screw ups these same politicians are responsible for.

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know if it was for propagandising purposes or just that the government wanted to keep a close eye

Neither. They spent real money on the British app - who pocketed that money?

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Neither. They spent real money on the British app - who pocketed that money?

Look for companies with Dominic Cummings as a shareholder

Joe_ Public

Some swiss firm has the contract to deliver the app, but i would imagine their brief was to deliver it on the basis of no google or apple so seems like it was behind the 8 ball from the start. Germany too were building their own centralised app system but took the decision in april to coordinate with the google-apple model. The uk ploughed ahead - stubbornness, blind optimism, stupidity, outside the box thinking? Take your pick.

S.M.B.

S.M.B. wrote: »

I'm more concerned with the app being worthless in a few weeks for being excluded from iTunes than the privacy concerns. It's a shame there isn't a unified approach across the world rather than everybody trying to invent the wheel concurrently.

Posted that on the 4th May :mad:

S.M.B.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Some swiss firm has the contract to deliver the app, but i would imagine their brief was to deliver it on the basis of no google or apple so seems like it was behind the 8 ball from the start. Germany too were building their own centralised app system but took the decision in april to coordinate with the google-apple model. The uk ploughed ahead - stubbornness, blind optimism, stupidity, outside the box thinking? Take your pick.

I believe the dev team behind it is a company that I work(ed?) across the road from in central London. Would have burned through a lot of money in the past few months and now it's back to the drawing board.

Joe_ Public

S.M.B. wrote: »

I believe the dev team behind it is a company that I work(ed?) across the road from in central London. Would have burned through a lot of money in the past few months and now it's back to the drawing board.

Zuhkle (swiss) and Pivotal (US) were the principal contactors i think. Though may have been others, not sure if Cummings pals in Faculty had any app action or not.

Am no techie, so I'm vaguely getting that Zuhkles job, worth £2m, was to make the app compatible with the apple network but turns out that's not feasible, as yourself and many others said at the time the trials were starting.

Read in a paywalled FT article that the UK were folowing Australia which was also building a centralised app and taking encouragement in the Aussies repeated assertions that all was going swimmingly. Except, as we are now hearing, it wasn't and never was. Government's dont always reveal the truth about these things, as the uk gov itself should well know!

dogbert27

daithi7 wrote: »

Dogbert, will you please post on here when the death rate due to Covid rises above yesterday's daily death rate again (250 iirc)?

I very much hope & doubt this will ever occur. Why?

- because the trend is downwards thankfully

- we're out of season for flu

- the chances of a second spike are historically only 50 % or less

- the monitoring & managing mechanisms of this pandemic are improving.

'Sorry' to be so bullishly optimistic in the face of your dystopian tirade, but I felt it was necessary for some informed balance!!!


P.s. I am no fan of the UK government or Boris, both who have been proven pathetically weak in the face of this crisis (& Brexit)

My tirade as you call it was more to the fact of what you stated at the end.

The downward curve is not related to anything fantastic or "Britain is best" in the UK governments response to this. Boris Johnson should not be proud of how he and his government has dealt with this and should show humility for the numbers they have in comparison to the rest of Europe.

I was in Milan on Feb 16th, 4 days before the first case was recorded. It escalated quickly in the 2 weeks and spread to France and Italy.
The Irish government, in February quickly called of the rugby game in Rome.

As I said in my post, the UK government allowed the Cheltenham and CL matches go ahead.

Lockdown measures as taken by all countries showed the it was effective in reducing the spread of the disease.

The government delayed going in to lockdown and sped up coming out of lockdown mainly on political grounds more than on a decision on public health.

I really hope there isn't a second wave that will cause another lockdown in Europe. I was away from my wife and kids stuck in another country for 10 weeks. When I got home to them I had to be in quarantine for 2 weeks.

I'm now back to flying every week as the two countries I work and live in have opened up to each other.

It's down to how much people will still adhere to social distancing and washing hands.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Some swiss firm has the contract to deliver the app, but i would imagine their brief was to deliver it on the basis of no google or apple so seems like it was behind the 8 ball from the start. Germany too were building their own centralised app system but took the decision in april to coordinate with the google-apple model. The uk ploughed ahead - stubbornness, blind optimism, stupidity, outside the box thinking? Take your pick.

If I am hearing correctly it seems like no country has a working app. They have all fallen over for some reason, most notably date protection. Please correct me if I'm wrong. But I think it's probably unfair to single out the UK for having failed when everyone has struggled

Igotadose

Enzokk wrote: »

Wasted time.

https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/1273592249755021314?s=20

If this is true, why didn't they see a problem from this when it was launched? It seems obvious that the problems with their centralised model would mean a move to the decentralised Apple/Google model.

I mean, forget the problems with data security, the power usage of the centralised version would put off most people if it drains your battery in any way you would notice, which this does by most accounts.

But can you believe they are painting the plane blue white and red!!!!

Reading this followup on the Indo, it's pretty clear the app didn't work. The pathetic excuse from Baroness Dido (who ran the Cheltenham virus-spreading event, didn't she?) is classic obfuscation: "Our response to this virus has and will continue to be as part of an international effort."

That is, we couldn't do it, so we're now going to do what everyone else is doing. No blame apportioned, no accountability. Typical government-run program. One wonders whether Baroness Dido personally profited from the millions spent on this failed piece of software.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-test-trace-contact-app-nhs-google-apple-design-a9573226.html

theological

dogbert27 wrote: »

The government delayed going in to lockdown and sped up coming out of lockdown mainly on political grounds more than on a decision on public health.

There was no way that you were going to insist on people staying at home until now. The lockdown measures were never going to be anything other than temporary and rightfully so.

The UK now being at a point where 1) cases are declining, 2) deaths are declining, and 3) are a long way down below the peak were never going to argue for continuing the lockdown in that circumstance because it is destructive to people's well being and to the economy.

Slow, step by step relaxation with monitoring is definitely the right course of action.

Now that we've lent the government that time in lockdown, we expect them to be building up means to be able to manage the virus. The fact that they are backtracking on the app after this time is disgraceful.

S.M.B.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Zuhkle (swiss) and Pivotal (US) were the principal contactors i think. Though may have been others, not sure if Cummings pals in Faculty had any app action or not.

Pivotal have their European headquarters in London and I believe that NHSX have worked with them directly in the past. I assume they're doing the same on this as opposed to liaising with those based in the states. To further muddy the water Pivotal was acquired by VMWare late last year.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If I am hearing correctly it seems like no country has a working app. They have all fallen over for some reason, most notably date protection. Please correct me if I'm wrong. But I think it's probably unfair to single out the UK for having failed when everyone has struggled

The uk is being singled out because they, unlike almost every other country, insisted on going with the centralised app even when lots of dire warnings were being sounded about its prospects. So while Italy and Germany have launched their apps and others are in the process, we now hear from the uk that it will be some time in the winter before they will be ready. But hey, they tell us it's no big deal anyway, so nothing to worry about.