The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Peregrinus

kalych wrote: »

The right number to call to be able to relay to Quokula the news of his potential untimely demise should he not get tested and begin treatment soon. ��

They don't know it until they actually try to call him, which of course only happens if (a) someone who has tested positive reports having visited the cafe at a time when they were likely infectious, and (b) the cafe register for the time of that visit is in consequence inspected by health department officials, and (c) they find Quokula's name on it.

At that point, they ring the number that Quokula has left. Only then will they discover if it is, in fact, the number of a person who visited the cafe at the time in question.

It follows that they will never know whether the vast, vast majority of numbers in these registers are right numbers. And this isn't a problem because, for the vast, vast majority of people, they don't need a right number. There is no need to ring them, so no need to have a right number for them.

If, when they ring the number Quokula has left, it turns out to be not a right number, then Quokula will not learn that he has been exposed, and will be unable to consider whether to get a test in the light of that knowledge or to consider whether to advise his family and social circle of the situation. This level of ignorance is, presumably, something Quokula aspires to; why else leave a wrong number?

But, while this may harm the interests of Quokula and of his family and social circle, it won't affect the effectiveness of contact-tracing for others who visited the cafe.

The system will work to a useful degree if a material proportion of people would prefer to know if they are exposed to CV19 infection. Those people will leave a right number.

Professor Moriarty

The Telegraph's cartoonist, Matt, this morning captures the contract tracing farce beautifully. Two barmen are reading a customer register. One says to the other: "If Mickey Mouse catches coronavirus we'll have to tell Lord Lucan, Adolf Hitler and Marilyn Monroe."

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1275104633908846593

S.M.B.

Looks like there are plenty within the hospitality industry who are not used to handling PII and are looking for a lot more in terms of clarification and guidance in the upcoming days. Others feel it's absurd that it doesn't apply to all other industries where social distancing cannot be guaranteed (eg retail etc).

I don't have too much issue with the idea in principle, but it needs to be implemented correctly for it to make up for the reduction in lockdown restrictions that come with it.

The government need to do more than just throwing out these solutions a few days before measures are introduced without providing further details. Similar thing happened with the return to schools.

theological

Seriously encouraging announcement, but I think there's going to be a fair bit of reluctance on some points. Not just restaurants and pubs. I go to a pretty large church with a few hundred in the congregation, admittedly I'm pretty reluctant to go back physically until the virus has waned further. I suspect our church will probably have plans they will announce in the coming days, but I doubt it will be 100% of us back. Great news on marriages admittedly from a slightly selfish perspective.

This announcement more than any of the others has me thinking that people need to tread very very very carefully going forward though.

Cal4567

To take from The Spice Girls

When 2 Become 1

bob mcbob

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Telegraph's cartoonist, Matt, this morning captures the contract tracing farce beautifully. Two barmen are reading a customer register. One says to the other: "If Mickey Mouse catches coronavirus we'll have to tell Lord Lucan, Adolf Hitler and Marilyn Monroe."

Ok so here's a scenario - I go out on Saturday night and visit 4 pubs in 4 hours and I do the right thing and give my details. Two days later I test positive for Covid. Does that mean everyone who visited these pubs on Saturday night must self-isolate?

Joe_ Public

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok so here's a scenario - I go out on Saturday night and visit 4 pubs in 4 hours and I do the right thing and give my details. Two days later I test positive for Covid. Does that mean everyone who visited these pubs on Saturday night must self-isolate?

I would think it means everybody who was in those pubs at the same time as you would be asked to self isolate. Including any staff that served your table. Or at a minimum they would all be contacted and risk assessed and advised to seek a test and/or isolate. Isn't that the whole point of contact tracing in the first place?

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I would think it means everybody who was in those pubs at the same time as you would be asked to self isolate. Including any staff that served your table. Or at a minimum they would all be contacted and risk assessed and advised to seek a test and/or isolate. Isn't that the whole point of contact tracing in the first place?

To be fair going to 4 pubs on the trot when we're still being asked to be careful would be pretty foolish.

S.M.B.

I would hope it allows you access to a test as it's a massive ask for people to isolate for two weeks because they happened to be in a pub with someone who tested positive at a later date.

A few months ago you had care workers displaying symptoms and still going to work as they are on zero hour contracts and needed the money so I'd imagine an app notification will only do so much.

Dave0301

theological wrote: »

To be fair going to 4 pubs on the trot when we're still being asked to be careful would be pretty foolish.

Which some people will still do unfortunately, although hopefully it will be a small minority.

theological

Dave0301 wrote: »

Which some people will still do unfortunately, although hopefully it will be a small minority.

I think obviously it will be a small minority. Every time people have posted a picture from Twitter or whatever else on this thread, or discussing stupid raves in Manchester as if they were indicative of most people in Britain, we knew it obviously wasn't.

Yes, there will be some stupid people, and yes there will be some infections because of stupid people, but extrapolating these incidents into a general norm was always incorrect.

Also, apparently today's daily briefing will be the last according to the BBC. From their livestream:

We have just had it confirmed that the UK government will give its daily briefing at 17:00 BST (16:00 GMT), led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Earlier today, the government confirmed it would be the last of the daily conferences, which have taken place - and been televised on BBC One - since mid-March.

Mr Johnson will be joined by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance – the same line-up as the first press briefing on coronavirus.

bob mcbob

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I would think it means everybody who was in those pubs at the same time as you would be asked to self isolate. Including any staff that served your table. Or at a minimum they would all be contacted and risk assessed and advised to seek a test and/or isolate. Isn't that the whole point of contact tracing in the first place?

Yes but I have also drunk from glasses and breathed on the table. Covid lives on hard surfaces so the risk is also there for people who come in after I have left.

This is going to be really difficult for the pub managers.

7 day rolling average deaths down further to 130ish. Hopefully down to double digits by next week given no sign of a spike in infections

Joe_ Public

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes but I have also drunk from glasses and breathed on the table. Covid lives on hard surfaces so the risk is also there for people who come in after I have left.

This is going to be really difficult for the pub managers.

Yeah dont disagree. I guess you can only minimise risk by thoroughly cleaning all areas and equipment after people have used them. But i agree with smb above, the key is in tracing as many people as possible who might be at risk and to assess them and get tested if necessary. Not necessarily quarantined. There was an outbreak Seoul last month, started in the clubbing area, and they traced and tested 50,000 people after it and managed to contain it within a couple of weeks. That's the kind of scale they deal in.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah dont disagree. I guess you can only minimise risk by thoroughly cleaning all areas and equipment after people have used them. But i agree with smb above, the key is in tracing as many people as possible who might be at risk and to assess them and get tested if necessary. Not necessarily quarantined. There was an outbreak Seoul last month, started in the clubbing area, and they traced and tested 50,000 people after it and managed to contain it within a couple of weeks. That's the kind of scale they deal in.

South Korea are unfortunately going through a second wave at this stage according to the authorities there.

Also testing and isolating is complicated. In the early stage of an infection the test can still come up as negative during the incubation period. So isolation definitely would need to happen. A test probably should only be done a few days after the isolation begins to ensure that someone doesn't test out as negative only to be positive a few days later.

A Dub in Glasgo

Johnson and co snuck in another 109 deaths as a historical adjustment

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1275446551389732871

Igotadose

Is Nigel Farage required to self isolate for 2 weeks once he returns from Tulsa? What's the rules now in the UK? He's coming from a Covid hotspot.

A Dub in Glasgo

Igotadose wrote: »

Is Nigel Farage required to self isolate for 2 weeks once he returns from Tulsa? What's the rules now in the UK? He's coming from a Covid hotspot.

Yes, he needs to fill in the form and state where he will be staying for 2 weeks.

Hopefully, the media just happen to be nearby when he inevitably breaks it

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yes, he needs to fill in the form and state where he will be staying for 2 weeks.

Hopefully, the media just happen to be nearby when he inevitably breaks it

Under the UK quarantine rules aren’t you still allowed out to go to the shop and exercise once a day? A bit like the rules at the start of lockdown. I might be mistaken though....

lainey_d_123

Why not just wait a few more weeks to open pubs? Distancing is going to go out of the window when people are drunk. Cases are going down, albeit slowly...why risk throwing it all away for the sake of a few weeks?

theological

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Why not just wait a few more weeks to open pubs? Distancing is going to go out of the window when people are drunk. Cases are going down, albeit slowly...why risk throwing it all away for the sake of a few weeks?

Every time there has been a relaxation there has been a suggestion on this thread that there's going to be a huge spike. Every time there's been a suggestion that people won't follow the restrictions and every time this prediction has been proven false. Most people are observing the rules.

We've had 3 separate relaxations of the measures at this stage and the decline has continued.

I won't touch the pub with a barge pole and I'm perfectly happy to drink at home, as are many others, but the economy needs to get back going at some stage. People depend on this industry for their livelihoods.

theological

theological wrote: »

Every time there has been a relaxation there has been a suggestion on this thread that there's going to be a huge spike. Every time there's been a suggestion that people won't follow the restrictions and every time this prediction has been proven false. Most people are observing the rules.

We've had 3 separate relaxations of the measures at this stage and the decline has continued.

I won't touch the pub with a barge pole and I'm perfectly happy to drink at home, as are many others, but the economy needs to get back going at some stage. People depend on this industry for their livelihoods.

Plus the black lives matter protests and the raves, that some would believe that half the British population attended

lainey_d_123

theological wrote: »

Every time there has been a relaxation there has been a suggestion on this thread that there's going to be a huge spike. Every time there's been a suggestion that people won't follow the restrictions and every time this prediction has been proven false. Most people are observing the rules.

We've had 3 separate relaxations of the measures at this stage and the decline has continued.

I won't touch the pub with a barge pole and I'm perfectly happy to drink at home, as are many others, but the economy needs to get back going at some stage. People depend on this industry for their livelihoods.

There also hasn't been as big of a drop as you would have expected, though. The daily deaths are still VERY high. Most other countries haven't reopened while deaths (and cases) were at this level.

Don't get me wrong - I'm absolutely sick to death of this bloody lockdown. I know we can't stay locked away forever. It just feels so risky...people are acting like it's all over, and it isn't.

theological

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

There also hasn't been as big of a drop as you would have expected, though. The daily deaths are still VERY high. Most other countries haven't reopened while deaths (and cases) were at this level.

Don't get me wrong - I'm absolutely sick to death of this bloody lockdown. I know we can't stay locked away forever. It just feels so risky...people are acting like it's all over, and it isn't.

To be fair, you've pointed to a lot of anecdotal stories and then extrapolated them to conclude that the whole population of Britain just won't follow anything.

Then we find that the data points show that they have been amazingly compliant. That's what has caused the numbers of cases and deaths to fall. Is there some way to go?

Sure, but a huge amount of progress has been made. Every single time the measures have been eased the infections have been declining.

That would make the case for the next careful slow steps for easing to be done. There has to be some point where individuals begin to determine their own risk appetite within the boundaries of the guidance.

I've said what mine are. No pub, no restaurants, slow to return to church, meeting only a very very select few people outside and my fiancee. Within the boundaries of the guidance it should be for others to decide what theirs is.

You have to also be mindful some people depend on the hospitality industry for their job, to be able to provide for their families. That's not a light consideration.

S.M.B.

Was disappointing to hear that the advisors expect the virus to still be fairly prevalent in April of next year (or that's what I thought I heard). Would prefer if the goal was the stamp it out entirely while ensuring new outbreaks can be acted upon quickly as opposed to being content to live with the virus as long as the numbers don't look too bad.

robinph

S.M.B. wrote: »

Was disappointing to hear that the advisors expect the virus to still be fairly prevalent in April of next year (or that's what I thought I heard). Would prefer if the goal was the stamp it out entirely while ensuring new outbreaks can be acted upon quickly as opposed to being content to live with the virus as long as the numbers don't look too bad.

The only way anywhere will be virus free next April without a vaccine is if New Zealand keeps up with it's complete lockdown to the outside world. I don't think they will keep it up though and will relax their 2 week quarantine and have to accept some cases getting through the net.

The rest of the planet is much more connected to each other than NZ and will just get on with things and accept the consequences.

Whatsisname

S.M.B. wrote: »

Was disappointing to hear that the advisors expect the virus to still be fairly prevalent in April of next year (or that's what I thought I heard). Would prefer if the goal was the stamp it out entirely while ensuring new outbreaks can be acted upon quickly as opposed to being content to live with the virus as long as the numbers don't look too bad.

It’ll never just be “stamped out”. Viruses don’t just disappear. We have to learn to live with it until either herd immunity is reached or a vaccine is made. The black plague still exists 600 years later.

gmisk

I see Matt Hancock has admitted they spent 12 million pounds on their own app...which was then ditched in favour of the one offered from apple and Google...as well as 108 million pounds on call centres for tracing where people say they have nothing to do....what a total disaster how is he still in a job?!?

S.M.B.

It's possible I've misinterpreted their thoughts on where they see us in 10 months just as my wish that the "goal was to stamp it out entirely" could be construed as some fanciful idea that covid-19 will be a distant memory in April 2021.

I just got the sense that Chris Whitty was pretty satisfied with the current numbers and that their ambitions were to not see a dramatic increase in the coming weeks and later in the year.

Again I could be just reading too much into some small phrases here and there but I'd be more comfortable if the ambition was to suppress the virus even further, even if the goal of outright elimination is futile. Not necessarily through lockdown and quarantine but through a very aggressive track and trace strategy.

A BBC tweet just popped up on my feed and here are the bits that stood out earlier. .

“I would be surprised and delighted if we weren’t in this current situation through the winter, into next spring”
and he expects a “significant amount of coronavirus circulating at least until that time” and we should plan as such.