The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Enzokk

theological wrote: »

I'd rather that the measures were in place quickly to deal with the virus rather than going through a long tender process when things are needed quickly.

Yeah, this attitude is why companies can get contracts in June for work done in March under new measures introduced in April. Because there isn't "time" to do it properly to ensure people connected to those in power gets to walk away with lots of money. The problem isn't the headline grabbing contracts worth hundreds of millions of pounds, but those of only £800k. People wouldn't look at it when other contracts worth much more is given as well, but it is those that seems like stealing from taxpayers expecting better.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

I think the red dots aren't insignificant, but they are not what you seem to be claiming they are. By pointing out what is factual about Blackburn for example, I'm not "downplaying" anything. I'm putting the data into perspective and explaining why it isn't as alarming as you are suggesting.

I've also explained why their colour scheme for the overlay on the map changed a few weeks ago. You can choose to do with what information what you will.

As i said, your kcl tracker has the current rate of daily new cases at over 2,100. That's nearly a 50% increase on the previous estimate. According to their quoted figures, areas like Blackburn, Blackpool, Pendle, Rotherham, Dudley among several others are as bad if not worse than Leicester a couple of weeks back pre lockdown. I'm not claiming or suggesting anything. I'm just looking at the figures from the website you keep relentlessly harping on about here. Nothing more.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As i said, your kcl tracker has the current rate of daily new cases at over 2,100. That's nearly a 50% increase on the previous estimate. According to their quoted figures, areas like Blackburn, Blackpool, Pendle, Rotherham, Dudley among several others are as bad if not worse than Leicester a couple of weeks back pre lockdown. I'm not claiming or suggesting anything. I'm just looking at the figures from the website you keep relentlessly harping on about here. Nothing more.

The red areas are not all worse than Leicester when it went into lockdown so this is incorrect. Blackburn with Darwen is however. If you're hitting over 2,000 per million you're probably on the verge of some form of localised measures. There are very few areas in this category. Most of the areas you list are not.

You seem to ignore the fact that 2,100 is a huge reduction from where we were in June overall.

At this stage I think I'm posting this more for the benefit of others however because you seem to be just looking for reasons to make it look like the UK is faring worse than it actually is.

Christy42

theological wrote: »

I think you'd still need to highlight the flaws in the data to demonstrate why it shouldn't be trusted. If you're not willing to provide reasons for this and instead insist on repeating the same claim there's not much you can add to the discussion other than you trust nobody for no reason.

The flaws are they lied before, have kept lying and have shown no remorse. Fool me 7 times shame on you, fool me 8 times shame on me.

Seriously, we know they muddled the numbers to hit previous testing targets and only hit them for a specific day to get a headline. Here they have track and trace with massive issues with gdpr
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53466471

So we know they haven't done due diligence before starting all of this or this wouldn't be an issue. That is a big hole so what other holes are there and what else did they miss? No due diligence, no trust.

They changed their story about 20 times during the app fiasco. There has been little transperency as to how the "scientific" advice they got was somehow different to that of the rest of the world and ended with them doing a massive uturn from their initial strategy of encouraging everyone to shake hands.

We have government officials talking about testing their eyesight by driving. If anyone ever tells you that then they are either too stupid to give accurate figures or more than willing to repeatedly lie about basic facts.

If I see someone willing to do proper preparations for track and trace, who hasn't repeatedly lied to me all over the place then yeah I'll trust their figures.

I thought that the UK was going to stop reporting deaths, but I see that the government's website still is (11 today). If the data is now spurious, surely better if no number is reported at all

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

The red areas are not all worse than Leicester when it went into lockdown so this is incorrect. Blackburn with Darwen is however. If you're hitting over 2,000 per million you're probably on the verge of some form of localised measures. There are very few areas in this category. Most of the areas you list are not.

You seem to ignore the fact that 2,100 is a huge reduction from where we were in June overall.

At this stage I think I'm posting this more for the benefit of others however because you seem to be just looking for reasons to make it look like the UK is faring worse than it actually is.

The number of daily cases is half what it was at the beginning of june and has shown increases the past two weeks. You can describe that as a "huge" reduction if you like, i would suggest it's not really good enough.

According to kcl figures at the time, Leicester wasnt even the worst hit area - both Wolverhampton and Dudley had worse figures. Blackburn is at 2,953pm, Blackpool at 1681. At the time they did not give figures per million, but Leicesters definitely did not correspond to those sorts of estimates.

Which is frankly moot anyway as lockdowns or containment measures are dictated by PHE data, not kcl.

Arghus

I was looking at worldometer there and according to its stats the UK has conducted roughly 199,000 tests per 1 million population, which puts it well up there in testing rates and numbers; nearly twice the rate of our own. It was reported for ages that the UK was a notoriously low test country - what changed?

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uk: The world's highest case fatality rate, perhaps there is a connection with the amount (or lack) of testing being done.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#the-case-fatality-rate

S.M.B.

Arghus wrote: »

I was looking at worldometer there and according to its stats the UK has conducted roughly 199,000 tests per 1 million population, which puts it well up there in testing rates and numbers; nearly twice the rate of our own. It was reported for ages that the UK was a notoriously low test country - what changed?

Tests that were put in the post but are yet to be or will never be processed are included in that figure. I also think it double counts them when they are actually processed. It also includes antibody and surveillance tests.

Using only the number of processed antigen tests halves that above figure.

Joe_ Public

Care home rings up and orders 40 tests and they send them 100. Home does the 40 tests, bins the rest = 100 tests done.

Patient gets tested, swab taken from nose and throat = 2 tests done. Etc, etc

All subterfuge just so they could post ridiculously large numbers and boast emptily about their world beating prowess. Nobody ever asked for a "world beating" system, they just wanted one that was efficient and trustworthy and they're still waiting.

theological

KCL figures are looking better than last week. There are 1,884 daily infections. The highest daily rate is in the North West and the North East. The UK average R number is looking to be 1.0 based on the data on the app also which isn't brilliant, but should at least mean that the number of new infections remains flat. I would be hoping that the R number goes below 1 next week because that means the decline would continue.

Overheal

British woman freaks out at other driver for not socially distancing between vehicles at a traffic stop

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/hvuf3j/social_distancing_on_a_whole_new_level/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1285957022727442433

Beasty

and so we move on to our second thread on this topic