Is anyone considering a one way ticket out of Ireland?

un5byh7sqpd2x0

Ronaldinho wrote: »

It was a balmy 18 degrees a few weeks back.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/hottest-day-on-record-in-antarctica-as-temperature-hits-18-degrees-1.4165652

The OP wants to go soon, not a few weeks ago. It's -63 now - https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica/vostok-station

The chan chan man

Can I ask you a personal question OP?

Are you mental?

Westernyelp

I think OP has headed of lads.

Cupatae

Westernyelp wrote: »

I think OP has headed of lads.

to where tho...

Corca Baiscinn

scamalert wrote: »

serious question are canaries off limit now id rather chance being in +20c and climbing then enjoying the ever lasting global freezing in ireland. as seems there will be f all to do for good next month or so.

Afraid so, heard reporter from Teneriffe saying on radio today that the Spanish Government want EVERYONE to leave who is not native. They want to get to grips with this and then start all over again. so, the flights will only be one way for the next while

embraer170

China is probably one of the few safe places to travel that. For that, you need to get a Chinese visa (is that even possible now?) and prepare for 14 days quarantine at your expense on arrival.

embraer170

embraer170 wrote: »

China is probably one of the few safe places to travel that. For that, you need to get a Chinese visa (is that even possible now?) and prepare for 14 days quarantine at your expense on arrival.

I'm pretty sure new visa's are not being issued. Their offices have been shut down and gone automated, although they have put in a service for someone like myself who might need their visa renewed. There's a two month automatic renewal when the expiry comes due. (Mine being in July).

mrcheez

Apparently Tanzania doesn't have it yet.

So perhaps building a fort on top of Kilimanjaro might be the last refuge?


EDIT... whoops spoke too soon: https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1516607/coronavirus-tanzania-somalia-eafrica-starts-closures

Raconteuse

TravelTiger wrote: »

I was waiting for a righteousness reply like this, just not so soon!

- I've no symptoms. Yes I'm aware I don't need to have them to have it
- It's still early days for Ireland yet
- if the country I'm going to thought Irish visitors were a threat then they'd have added them to their current "Nope. No chance" list of banned countries. They haven't.

Not yet anyway.

I feel the window is closing for anyone who wants to escape this country in that regard though.

It's not a "righteousness" reply just because you don't like it. It's correct - tough. It's not just about you not having symptoms - it's about you picking them up from others.

But actually I don't think you're serious.

Dodge

Great thread.

Wonder why the OP is still single...

jmreire

TravelTiger wrote: »

I'm very tempted to get a one way ticket out of the country at the moment. To a place with no closed borders yet and who have been doing an amazing job of containment. I also have a friend in the same area there for chats.

I do NOT trust that our health system can handle this. I'll be surprised if they can deal with 20% of it.

I can feel tension brewing in my family over difference of opinion over how serious this is. About 80% of them can't see what this has the potential to do.

I'm single. No kids and no mortgage and my gut feeling on how this is going to play out in Irelsnd is not good at all. Like; really not good. Perhaps it's only a matter of time till either Ireland completely shuts up shop and/or the other country does the same and I'm trapped.
Have you considered doing the same? Leaving the country?

Question is to where???? Because this virus will go global,,,,so you may run, but you can't hide ( except maybe China? )

BetterWay

OP is clearly talking about Australia. Hasn't it free healthcare for the Irish? For it's size it also hasn't been hit hard by this. It has only 25 million people if memory serves and you can fit Europe one and a half times inside it.


If I hadn't got kids I'd be gone too tbh. Europe is riddled with this.

cj maxx

I have a place in Belize. I might go there for awhile

Shefwedfan

Is the OP gone yet? Hopefully

s7ryf3925pivug

No cases in North Korea. Probably gone there.

I’d imagine if anyone was leaving, they’d be busy making arrangements and not making a thread on boards.

Monokne

The OP in this made my day.

He's going to outrun the coronavirus by going to a magical land that won't be affected and is so secret he can't even tell a couple hundred boardsies for fear we may come and infect him.

I hope he never has to come back and join us all in the real world.

Monokne

BetterWay wrote: »

OP is clearly talking about Australia. Hasn't it free healthcare for the Irish? For it's size it also hasn't been hit hard by this. It has only 25 million people if memory serves and you can fit Europe one and a half times inside it.


If I hadn't got kids I'd be gone too tbh. Europe is riddled with this.

Right, but it's going to go everywhere eventually so unless you plan on inter-railing the entire planet in perpetuity until it catches you, what is the end game?

Dunno why anyone has to leave Ireland... just head into the countryside of Kerry or Connemara. Rent a place out there and in many areas, your closest neighbor will likely need a car to visit you.

Xertz

One of the issues with this is that during recessions and times of crisis here we have historically had places to bolt to - the US, Canada, the UK, continental Europe and right now all of those are in similar circumstances and the recession is very likely to be symmetric and global.

The countries that have it under wraps like New Zealand is just extremely far away from everything. Ireland, despite being an island is deeply connected, an hour and a bit away from most of Western Europe and mega hubs like London, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan etc and also closer to the US Northeast than some parts of the US and flights were plentiful and cheap.

The likes of NZ will not be open or welcoming to European visitors for some time to come. Nor will Australia and neither have ever had open doors for residency - there’s a complex visa process, as there is the other way around too btw.

As for China? Would you really want to live there long term and do you believe their stats? I would tend to read them with a large degree of suspicion. You’re not exactly talking about a country known for transparency - a lot of things never officially happened there ...

Basically I think we’re just going to have to ride this one out and I would hope that Ireland is quite capable of doing so. We have one of the saner governments and political systems. A lot of the employment drivers here are also like to do relatively ok - IT sector companies do used on cloud infrastructure that’s hugely in demand, pharma / biophama and so on and if they keep ticking over, the domestic focused economy may be able to pick up relatively quickly and we have a stable currency so you’re unlikely to see massive inflation.

Overall it’s going to be a hair raising few years no maybe where you are and this time around Ireland could be one of the places that does relatively ok.

It remains to be seen but, so far, I wouldn’t be rushing to boom a plane ticket. A lot will depend on how things on out in the 12 - 24 months ahead.

There are big risks but they’re similar everywhere. I would be iffy about jumping out of the frying pan and into some other frying pan, if not the fire. A lot of things are far too soon to call and the whole situation is without any precedent in a modern economy.

I've thanked Xertz's post.

The only annoyance for me is those Irish personalities on current affairs Radio who are under the impression because of their own supposed "eminance" / "authority" / "professional standing"

that

they can criticise the heck out of for example "the governments slow reaction to the crisis".


The same "angry men" and "angry women" can go ....
What annoys me is that they are in well paid employment or self employment. I just really wish now that one of them would blow a circuit in such an "outrage"

They seem more conspicuous here in Ireland than anywhere else like UK USA Europe rest of world.

Xertz

Xertz wrote: »

As for China? Would you really want to live there long term and do you believe their stats? I would tend to read them with a large degree of suspicion. You’re not exactly talking about a country known for transparency - a lot of things never officially happened there ...

I do live there long term, and I have no problem with their lack of transparency. I'll likely be returning there within roughly a months time. Many of my expat friends have already returned and haven't gotten sick or reported any serious problems.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

I do live there long term, and I have no problem with their lack of transparency. I'll likely be returning there within roughly a months time. Many of my expat friends have already returned and haven't gotten sick or reported any serious problems.

You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?

corks finest

ShineOn7 wrote: »

You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?

The Chinese government is responsible for all these death's irrespective of ppl not social distancing,it's started there ,they're bloody pariahs

Monokne

corks finest wrote: »

The Chinese government is responsible for all these death's irrespective of ppl not social distancing,it's started there ,they're bloody pariahs

WOW :eek:

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?

Nope. Not in the slightest. I've always known that the CCP lies... that's been the case for decades. Do you have a problem with living in Ireland when SF and FF lie?

The simple truth is that most people get on with their lives, and the behavior of the government is of little concern until it directly affects their lifestyles.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

Nope. Not in the slightest. I've always known that the CCP lies... that's been the case for decades. Do you have a problem with living in Ireland when SF and FF lie?

I'd probably chance my arm with a country jointly led by Hitler and Stalin before the CCP

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'd probably chance my arm with a country jointly led by Hitler and Stalin before the CCP

I wouldn't. There are some really bizarre notions of what life is like in China, and the risks therein.

I've lived there 11 years. Never been arrested. Never had any serious problems with the police. I don't know of any foreigner with serious problems except for those engaging in criminal activities (which are also illegal in their own countries), and in each case, except for one, they were deported rather than held in Chinese prisons. The one exception was a rape/murder case.

I wouldn't want to be Chinese and live in China... but that's more to do with options for education, social mobility, etc. than any real fear of the government. You can stay off the official radar pretty easily if you put a little bit of thought into it... and yes, that's what Chinese friends/colleagues have told me.

ShineOn7

Xertz wrote: »

It remains to be seen but, so far, I wouldn’t be rushing to boom a plane ticket. A lot will depend on how things on out in the 12 - 24 months ahead.

Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

Spanish Eyes

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

Sorry but our own country relies to a large extent on tourism also.

But we will survive hopefully. I have no truck with other country's tourism issues right now. They reap what they sow.

Before Covid there was a lot of talk about the glut of tourists in places like Barcelona, Venice, and so on.

Cruise ships mostly.

eddie73

There is nowhere to run.

We have to suck this up. I believe that we will but the changes in the aftermath of this episode are going to be most disruptive.

BENDYBINN

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

Spain had introduced a tourist tax of 4-5euro a night payable at the hotel on arrival.....we have too many tourists they said..

The phrase be careful what you ask for comes to mind..

ednwireland

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Sorry but our own country relies to a large extent on tourism also.

But we will survive hopefully. I have no truck with other country's tourism issues right now. They reap what they sow.

Before Covid there was a lot of talk about the glut of tourists in places like Barcelona, Venice, and so on.

Cruise ships mostly.

irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

spains is 11.7%

yes i was suprised irelands was that low

Cupatae

ednwireland wrote: »

irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

spains is 11.7%

yes i was suprised irelands was that low

The hotels were only gettin back on there feet, id say this will bury quite a few of em.

ShineOn7

Cupatae wrote: »

The hotels were only gettin back on there feet, id say this will bury quite a few of em.

Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position

Not just Dublin unfortunately.

Cupatae

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position

Life exists outside of dublin aswell you know.

Cupatae

Cupatae wrote: »

Life exists outside of dublin aswell you know.

But Dublin is the main focus point for tourism... and it is bloody expensive. Not simply the hotels but overall, it's far more expensive to stay there a few days than it should be.

Risteard81

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

Bali's not a country. It's an Indonesian island.

ShineOn7

Risteard81 wrote: »

Bali's not a country. It's an Indonesian island.

If you insist on getting pedantic, it's an Indonesian province

MadYaker

Might go back France for a while if things start to open up quicker there.

Xertz

I’d be slow to go to urban France until I see where this goes in terms of potential social unrest. There’s going to be a lot of socioeconomic impact and there may be a long phase of signifiant restrictions. They had far more profound impacts in terms of death tolls and strain on health services than we’ve had.

France was already having major urban violent protests before this kicked off and some of the conspiracy theories whirling around online en français are likely to create absolute tinder box as the lid is lifted.

The U.K. wouldn’t be high on my list of places to visit for a good few more months either until I see them both get things under control and see how things play out socioeconomically there. The political leadership is just unprecedentedly toxic.

Ireland’s likely to reopen things relatively sanely by the looks of things. It’s more likely to be in line with some of the Northern European countries, but I think we are letting the likes of Denmark and a few others make the first moves and monitoring carefully to avoid any misstep.

Xertz

ednwireland wrote: »

irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

spains is 11.7%

yes i was suprised irelands was that low

Yeah, we tend to imagine we’ve a lot more dependency on tourism than we actually do. The reality is we are one of the lesser tourism dependent countries in the EU and OECD. Significantly less than the U.K. (around 11% of GDP), US or Germany for example.

It’ll be big issue for southern Spain for while, but I also suspect EU tourists will want to travel to the EU for quite a long time. It will have the market to itself without competition from cheaper destinations like Turkey, parts of North Africa and places with weak healthcare systems.

Also far flung destinations aren’t going to be cheap or attractive to fly to for a long while.

So I could see a slump then a boom in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and so on.

Social distancing requirements could well set aviation back 30 years in terms of ticket prices.

My guess is you’re going to be paying €500+ for a flight to the Costa del Sol for the next while. Until airlines can get volumes and economies of scale back.

So basically you’d be looking at flying being more like 1980s pricing relative to income.

Ireland well see strong domestic tourism for several years too until people become more adventurous and planes start flying at cheap rates again.

I could also see the car ferry to France and the gîtes and so on becoming a big thing again too. It’s much easier for ferries to socially distance as they’ve loads of space on board and it’s much easier to travel by car.

ILoveYourVibes

To where? Everywhere is the same or worse.

ShineOn7

Xertz wrote: »

My guess is you’re going to be paying €500+ for a flight to the Costa del Sol for the next while. Until airlines can get volumes and economies of scale back.

The greatest threat that the aviation industry has ever seen and they've zero money coning in now, yet you think the likes of Ryanair will charge 500 euros for Ireland to Spain?

Xertz

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The greatest threat that the aviation industry has ever seen and they've zero money coning in now, yet you think the likes of Ryanair will charge 500 euros for Ireland to Spain?

They will if they are the only game in town and they’ve very few seats available because of social distancing.

Why would you think Ryanair would cut fares?

Many of their competitors will be out of business in the months ahead by the looks of it and there’ll be few flights for quite some time to come.

Ryanair’s current model is high volume and low margin. If they can’t do that, they’ve a huge cash pile and could, until business is back to normal, really hike the fares.

I think you’re looking at 1 to 2 years where travel is going to be very expensive as the competition and volume isn’t going to be coming back sooner than that.

If you can’t load the planes to capacity, low price high volume model doesn’t work. So you’ll have to go with high price low volume.

You’re potentially looking at travel more like the 1980s

The only thing I would say they’d different is you’ll have large fleets of brand new aircraft going cheap to anyone who can make them operate at a profit.

The sense I get though is this won’t be resolving itself until 2021/22.

The prospect of a vaccine is still not that close and if it follows previous pandemics, this could be only the first wave.

s1ippy

Xertz wrote: »

They will if they are the only game in town and they’ve very few seats available because of social distancing.

Why would you think Ryanair would cut fares?

Many of their competitors will be out of business in the months ahead by the looks of it and there’ll be few flights for quite some time to come.

Ryanair’s current model is high volume and low margin. If they can’t do that, they’ve a huge cash pile and could, until business is back to normal, really hike the fares.

I think you’re looking at 1 to 2 years where travel is going to be very expensive as the competition and volume isn’t going to be coming back sooner than that.

If you can’t load the planes to capacity, low price high volume model doesn’t work. So you’ll have to go with high price low volume.

You’re potentially looking at travel more like the 1980s

The only thing I would say they’d different is you’ll have large fleets of brand new aircraft going cheap to anyone who can make them operate at a profit.

The sense I get though is this won’t be resolving itself until 2021/22.

The prospect of a vaccine is still not that close and if it follows previous pandemics, this could be only the first wave.

Michael O'Leary did an interview sruth Sky yesterday where he said in July and August they would be having a massive sale on budget flights and accommodation.

He also attacked the other airlines who were looking for bailouts and called out Richard Branson by name. I think he wants to fight him.

He's absolutely deluded if he thinks there will be any chance of people being able to travel then. I suspect he realises they won't but just wants to get people thinking about it so that they would do it at the first opportunity.

Harvard scientists reckon 2022.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-social-distancing-how-long/

Risteard81

ShineOn7 wrote: »

If you insist on getting pedantic, it's an Indonesian province

And island actually.

Xertz

O’Leary is a master of getting the brand highlighted by being controversial and that will get headlines.

The reality of it is quite different if they’re required to implement social distancing and if destinations can’t really deal with mass tourism in the same way as we’ve been used to for years.

It’s going to be weird for a few years, but not forever.

I don’t really see how he’s going to be able to do what he’s proposing in that interview. The issue isn’t lack of demand due to high prices. It’s lack of demand due to technical barriers making it impossible to load planes to maximum capacity. The reason the planes won’t fill isn’t going to be about ticket price. It’s about potential restrictions for health reasons.

You’re also looking at a scenario with potentially serious dips in demand due to what could turn into unprecedented global recession/depression and that will cause a slump in leisure travel regardless.

If airlines have to say reduce capacity by 50% - 75% to make social distancing possible, the low fares model might mean charging less than BA or Air France, but it’s really going to be setting that pricing bar way way higher than it is today.

My guess is Ryanair could even end up morphing into what resembles more of a mainstream, fuller service airline, possibly even picking up slots in more major airports than far flung places, as they’ve the cash and flexibility to survive this in a way most won’t.

Except that at some stage people will have to accept that they're going to get covid... the majority of the workforce will return to work, and face the risks that come with covid... and with those risks, will come the need to unwind.

I don't see travel suffering as much as many people seem to expect. Look at China. The moment that restrictions were lifted, their tourist spots were flooded by tourists. There's a great number of people who know that the risk will continue to be there for over a year, and are willing to take their chances. That includes taking flights.

This social distancing is an initial reaction for the majority... the minority (the old/vulnerable) will need to continue doing it, but the majority will be heading back to normality after a month or two. More deaths but there's not enough debt options for countries to remain as they currently are.