Australian Response

Mellor

Peregrinus wrote: »

To be fair, Australia has characteristics in terms of remoteness and limited entry points to the country that Ireland doesn't have. Australia can close down its international border, and even its domestic borders, in ways that are simply impossible for Ireland (or for any European country). So while the Australian commitment to early and vigorous action may have lessons for us, the actual measures that work for Australia would produce the same result in Ireland.

Im not sure if that holds up.
Yes, Australia is remote globally speaking. But it’s a lot closer to China and has a lot more traffic with China than Ireland. Do initial cases in Australia spiked much earlier. So the rest of the world had much more notice than Ireland.

Excluding the border with NI, Ireland has the same entry points as Australia. And Ireland could close its international border with EU if it wished. The simple fact is they didn’t act.

People also mentioned the size of Australia. Sure it’s big. But most of it is uninhabited. Highly urbanised. The greater Sydney area is basically the entire population of Ireland squeezed into Cork and Kerry.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-open-coronavirus-second-charter-flight-records-positive-covid19-case/365e6652-6816-4be5-9c9b-85e94f6f6d20

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/16/family-fear-for-dying-australian-man-stranded-in-ireland-as-emirates-cancels-flights

JP Liz V1

https://twitter.com/IrishTimesSport/status/1350827354336026624

mandrake04

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IrishTimesSport/status/1350827354336026624

boo hoo, they play professional tennis for money... they cant complain too much.

The other option was no tournament and no $$. Surely they have agents and managers who read the T&C.

derfderf

They're expecting no return to International travel this year, but basically said "never say never".
I can't see why they wouldn't have green zones for places with high vaccine uptake, and low cases.

Red Silurian

derfderf wrote: »

They're expecting no return to International travel this year, but basically said "never say never".
I can't see why they wouldn't have green zones for places with high vaccine uptake, and low cases.

I would say they need 0 cases rather than 'low' cases to allow a green zone... I think you can already travel from NZ to most territories without isolating which is a smart move

mandrake04

derfderf wrote: »

They're expecting no return to International travel this year, but basically said "never say never".
I can't see why they wouldn't have green zones for places with high vaccine uptake, and low cases.

Well it’s a sick world out there.

They always been very conservative sure last March Morrison said that they likely to close hospitality for 6 months but they only closed for 10 weeks, even with countries with high vaccine uptake you still don’t know if those vaccines are going do the trick...you get a mutant variant and you could be back to square 1.

Australia is on a similar timeline to Ireland that most of vaccinations will be done by September, but takes a bit of time for the immunity to build up..so we are told.

https://www.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html

I think UK is a country they will be watching, they are well ahead on similar vaccines and will possibly try to reopen later in the year see how that goes.

I have a friend postponed his wedding last October to this October and is now unsure if his family in Ireland can make it, but to be fair they be at this stage I think they be just grateful to get out of the house never mind jaunt around the world to a wedding and the other thing is can they afford to come since most of them haven’t been working.

derfderf

colmtheperson wrote: »

I would say they need 0 cases rather than 'low' cases to allow a green zone... I think you can already travel from NZ to most territories without isolating which is a smart move

It's only one way though. I can kind of understand, there are too many small clusters popping up for NZ to be completely sure.

Either way, I can't travel until the two week quarantine on return is lifted. Imagine two weeks locked in a hotel room with a two year old?

Peregrinus

Mellor wrote: »

Im not sure if that holds up.
Yes, Australia is remote globally speaking. But it’s a lot closer to China and has a lot more traffic with China than Ireland. Do initial cases in Australia spiked much earlier. So the rest of the world had much more notice than Ireland.

Excluding the border with NI, Ireland has the same entry points as Australia. And Ireland could close its international border with EU if it wished. The simple fact is they didn’t act.

People also mentioned the size of Australia. Sure it’s big. But most of it is uninhabited. Highly urbanised. The greater Sydney area is basically the entire population of Ireland squeezed into Cork and Kerry.

Even in absolute numbers, Ireland has more international travel (= more passenger arrivals and departures) than Australia. Relative to population, it has several times more. Many Irish residents engage in international travel multiple times a years. And even all this ignores traffic accross the border with NI.

It is just not feasible for Ireland to operate Australia-style travel restriction. The land border with NI makes this impossible but, even without that, the social and economic impact of Australia-style restrictions on sea and air travel would be many, many times more onerous than it has been in Australia. And I'm not sure that there would be enough hotel beds in Ireland to operate the Australian quarantine system.

That's not to say that greater travel restrictions might not have a positive role to play in the Irish response to the pandemic. But Australian-style restrictions are not in practice feasible and, if we attempted to apply them, it's unlikely that they would yield Australian-style results.

We are differently-situated from Australia, and our pandemic response has to address our situation, not Australia's.

Mellor

Peregrinus wrote: »

Even in absolute numbers, Ireland has more international travel (= more passenger arrivals and departures) than Australia. Relative to population, it has several times more. Many Irish residents engage in international travel multiple times a years. And even all this ignores traffic accross the border with NI.

It is just not feasible for Ireland to operate Australia-style travel restriction. The land border with NI makes this impossible but, even without that, the social and economic impact of Australia-style restrictions on sea and air travel would be many, many times more onerous than it has been in Australia. And I'm not sure that there would be enough hotel beds in Ireland to operate the Australian quarantine system.

That's not to say that greater travel restrictions might not have a positive role to play in the Irish response to the pandemic. But Australian-style restrictions are not in practice feasible and, if we attempted to apply them, it's unlikely that they would yield Australian-style results.

We are differently-situated from Australia, and our pandemic response has to address our situation, not Australia's.

The fact we have higher turnout over at airports is not an excuse to implement no restrictions.
Even if the results would not have been as good as australia. That is not an excuse to do nothing.

They were still allowing people from overseas hotspots to swan in and out for months after it was painfully obviously that what idiotic.
Yes, Irish people go abroad more often. Pleasure trips should have been stopped sooner.

They didn't even bother with temperature checks.

Hotel quarantine would have actually helped a dying industry.

And that's just airports. There are many other measures that could be in place that would have helped. Instead of the ridiculous areas they've focused on.

Peregrinus

Mellor wrote: »

The fact we have higher turnout over at airports is not an excuse to implement no restrictions.
Even if the results would not have been as good as australia. That is not an excuse to do nothing.

They were still allowing people from overseas hotspots to swan in and out for months after it was painfully obviously that what idiotic.
Yes, Irish people go abroad more often. Pleasure trips should have been stopped sooner.

They didn't even bother with temperature checks.

Hotel quarantine would have actually helped a dying industry.

And that's just airports. There are many other measures that could be in place that would have helped. Instead of the ridiculous areas they've focused on.

Travel volume did drop hugely. Sure, it could have dropped more, and would have if a 2-week hotel quarantine had been imposed. But, my point is, that would have been much more onerous in terms of its social and economic effects in Ireland than it was in Australia, which makes it less sustainable.

And, it would have been less effective. With high rates of infection in the UK, and with the prevalence of the highly-infective strains there, and with the close social and economic conections with the UK (and the land border!) it strikes me as unlikely that the more rigorous travel controls that might have been feasible would have made a huge amount of difference.

Mellor

Peregrinus wrote: »

Travel volume did drop hugely. Sure, it could have dropped more, and would have if a 2-week hotel quarantine had been imposed.

The drop was largely due to self imposed reduction. Not due to government restriction.
I'm criticising the government, not the people.

And, it would have been less effective. With high rates of infection in the UK, and with the prevalence of the highly-infective strains there, and with the close social and economic conections with the UK (and the land border!) it strikes me as unlikely that the more rigorous travel controls that might have been feasible would have made a huge amount of difference.

NI infection rates are likely much more related to our own than those on the UK mainland.
And as I said, travel is one aspect. There's a whole list of inaction and bad decisions domestically.

Peregrinus

Mellor wrote: »

The drop was largely due to self imposed reduction. Not due to government restriction.
I'm criticising the government, not the people.


NI infection rates are likely much more related to our own than those on the UK mainland.
And as I said, travel is one aspect. There's a whole list of inaction and bad decisions domestically.

Sure. I don't think there's a huge difference between us. My point is a limited one; simply mirroring Australian travel restrictions (a) wouldn't be practicable in Ireland, and (b) even if it were attempted, wouldn't produce the same outcome as it produced in Australia. But that's not to say that we couldn't have had our own travel controls, tailored to our own situation, that could have had beneficial effects.

mandrake04

Peregrinus wrote: »

Even in absolute numbers, Ireland has more international travel (= more passenger arrivals and departures) than Australia. Relative to population, it has several times more. Many Irish residents engage in international travel multiple times a years. And even all this ignores traffic accross the border with NI.

It is just not feasible for Ireland to operate Australia-style travel restriction. The land border with NI makes this impossible but, even without that, the social and economic impact of Australia-style restrictions on sea and air travel would be many, many times more onerous than it has been in Australia. And I'm not sure that there would be enough hotel beds in Ireland to operate the Australian quarantine system.

That's not to say that greater travel restrictions might not have a positive role to play in the Irish response to the pandemic. But Australian-style restrictions are not in practice feasible and, if we attempted to apply them, it's unlikely that they would yield Australian-style results.

We are differently-situated from Australia, and our pandemic response has to address our situation, not Australia's.

not quite...International air movements Australia has 42.3m where Ireland has 38m.

But then as you say that ignores cross border, ferries in Ireland and international cruise and cargo ships in Australia.

derfderf

It wouldn't be as easy for Ireland to implement, but they could definitely have helped the situation in some ways.
I don't buy the land border reason though. If they can (attampt to) police the 5km limit people can travel from their home, they can police the border. Granted, they wouldn't catch everyone, but it would have been a deterrent.

vurstflavor

Australia has an advantage is they don't really have a winter so most people stay outdoors also sun will kill a lot of covid

Peregrinus

derfderf wrote: »

It wouldn't be as easy for Ireland to implement, but they could definitely have helped the situation in some ways.
I don't buy the land border reason though. If they can (attampt to) police the 5km limit people can travel from their home, they can police the border. Granted, they wouldn't catch everyone, but it would have been a deterrent.

Yeah, but remember in Ireland the 5km limit is being policed for weeks at a time; in Australia the travel restrictions have been in place continuously since March 2020 and now seem likely to endure until December 2021. I don't see that level of control being sustainable along the border for that length of time.

mandrake04

vurstflavor wrote: »

Australia has an advantage is they don't really have a winter so most people stay outdoors also sun will kill a lot of covid

Depends, Melbourne winter is shyte compared to Brisbane and Sydney. Tasmania is very wintery.

QLD actually done very well, 307 local cases and 9 deaths compared to NSW 2180 Local cases and 54 deaths.

WA had 99 Local cases, 9 deaths, ACT 29, 3 deaths SA 187 Local cases, 4 deaths, TAS 149 LC and 13 deaths. NT 4 cases.

Victoria/Melbourne the most European city took it literally and went full retard, 19,388 local cases and 820 deaths.


6387 cases in quarantine hotels

Mellor

vurstflavor wrote: »

Australia has an advantage is they don't really have a winter so most people stay outdoors also sun will kill a lot of covid

Going outside is the opposite of what people needed to be doing while infected.
The sun doesn't kill infections.

mandrake04 wrote: »

6387 cases in quarantine hotels

This is the important number.
Each one of them was a potential local transmission, and each of those was potentially another, and so on.

Peregrinus

vurstflavor wrote: »

Australia has an advantage is they don't really have a winter so most people stay outdoors also sun will kill a lot of covid

Mellor wrote: »

Going outside is the opposite of what people needed to be doing while infected.
The sun doesn't kill infections.

There is some evidence that meeting/socialising outdoors presents a lower risk of infection than doing so indoors, if only because social distancing is easier and ventilation is better. And the Australian climate (in most places) probably lends itself to this better than the Irish climate.

But, really, it's pretty marginal. I'm sceptical that this has much to do with Australia's relatively benign experience of the pandemic.

Mellor

Going to the beach is going to be a bit more covid safe than squeezing into a pub. But doesn’t come close to staying at home.

Also, summer activity’s include things like BBQs whic are probably a great way to spread viruses.

Gael23

Looking like 2022 before foreigners are let in

mandrake04

Gael23 wrote: »

Looking like 2022 before foreigners are let in

Loads of Kiwis are arriving everyday on a green flight no quarantine required.

They arrive on a red flight they have to Quarantine.

Tennis players, Matt Damon, Liam Neeson etc are all foreigners but are let in but have to Quarantine.

If you have a valid reason you can still get a visa and a permit, essential business, visiting sick relative etc.

It’s been fantastic to see how the Aussies have handled the situation.

One person tested positive in Perth and now a snap lockdown for 5 days.

No ****ing about whatsoever.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55877150

Both my girls are in Perth. One of them is looking to buy a house and I got a Snapchat of everyone being turned away from an open house they were going to view. I guess this was a spur of the moment lockdown?

Waiting for them to video call me after they’re back from a food shop.

Internet reception is crap. Anyone on FIFO (Fly In Fly Out) has been told to stay put for 5 days. So if they were due to leave work they stay at work, if they were due to fly to work, they stay at home.

Queue for shop was mental. Princess No1 complained about mask. They have had it so good I just laughed at their whinging

mandrake04

Same happened in Brisbane earlier this month, hotel worker got infected they did a snap lockdown for 3 days and managed to get on top of it.

It gives the track and trace people time to trace all his contacts for the last 2 weeks, better than burying the head in the sand....3 days is better than 3 months.

Yea Adelaide got enough contact Tracing done in our 3 day lockdown too. Put 2,000 people into isolation at the time. Far better to have quick over the top response rather than what's happening in Europe, USA, UK etc.

Peregrinus

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Both my girls are in Perth. One of them is looking to buy a house and I got a Snapchat of everyone being turned away from an open house they were going to view. I guess this was a spur of the moment lockdown?

The positive test result was received, reportedly, about midnight on Sat/Sun. The ABC story announcing the lockdown has a dateline of 11:43 am Sun. The lockdown took effect at 6 pm Sun.

So, less than 12 hours from positive test result to lockdown announcement, and 6 hours notice of lockdown.

I wouldn't say it was "spur of the moment", though. I'd say they had already wargamed this and they knew exactly what they would do in the event of a positive test.

Red Silurian

Peregrinus wrote: »

The positive test result was received, reportedly, about midnight on Sat/Sun. The ABC story announcing the lockdown has a dateline of 11:43 am Sun. The lockdown took effect at 6 pm Sun.

So, less than 12 hours from positive test result to lockdown announcement, and 6 hours notice of lockdown.

I wouldn't say it was "spur of the moment", though. I'd say they had already wargamed this and they knew exactly what they would do in the event of a positive test.

Compare that to the Irish response back when they moved the country to lv5 after 6 days of political talks following 1,205 cases were recorded on the 15th of October

Honestly I can't see this government surviving the next election