Australian Response

monkeybutter

colmtheperson wrote: »

Compare that to the Irish response back when they moved the country to lv5 after 6 days of political talks following 1,205 cases were recorded on the 15th of October

Honestly I can't see this government surviving the next election

when is this next election exactly


you currently have the 2 parties who have been elected through the entire history of the state in collation


they are happy out

Red Silurian

monkeybutter wrote: »

when is this next election exactly


you currently have the 2 parties who have been elected through the entire history of the state in collation


they are happy out

It will be February 2025 at the latest...

A long time, I know but I'll bet COVID will dominate the mid-terms

derfderf

colmtheperson wrote: »

Compare that to the Irish response back when they moved the country to lv5 after 6 days of political talks following 1,205 cases were recorded on the 15th of October

Honestly I can't see this government surviving the next election

Up until Winter Ireland didn't seem to be doing too bad in comparison. The Irish have a bit more of a rebel spirit in them compared to Australians though.
Even officials. The gardai might let you off with a warning on occasion, but I've never heard of that with Australin police. You break a rule, you're getting fined. There's no grey area here.

Peregrinus

derfderf wrote: »

Up until Winter Ireland didn't seem to be doing too bad in comparison. The Irish have a bit more of a rebel spirit in them compared to Australians though.
Even officials. The gardai might let you off with a warning on occasion, but I've never heard of that with Australin police. You break a rule, you're getting fined. There's no grey area here.

Australians have this national self-image as a country of larrikins, filled with the spirit of the bushranger, forever cocking a snook at authority.

But, in truth, compared to Ireland the place is a police state.

derfderf

Peregrinus wrote: »

Australians have this national self-image as a country of larrikins, filled with the spirit of the bushranger, forever cocking a snook at authority.

But, in truth, compared to Ireland the place is a police state.

I would guess out in the bush it's a bit different, but you're not far wrong on the cities. There is a lot more personal responsibility too. Most people on public transport in Sydney were wearing masks when it wasn't mandatory, although that had started to tail off until the Christmas outbreak.

It is definitely easier to get people to toe the line when they see positive results though. Pubs here were closed for around four months in all last year. How long have they been closed in Ireland? If you had a few months of normality you could use that to sell the next lockdown to people, but lockdowns in Ireland seem to drop case numbers without ever really reaching the point where people can go about their business as normal.

No cases found for last 2 days but that’s the least of the worries for people living in the Perth suburbs.

Extensive bush fire right now which doesn’t look like it’s abating. My girls in the blue zone which means they’re not in imminent danger but it’s the direction the wind is taking so they have to watch out for embers starting smaller fires.

Peregrinus

derfderf wrote: »

I would guess out in the bush it's a bit different, but you're not far wrong on the cities . . .

But that's practically everybody. Australia is one of the most urbanised societies in the world.

derfderf wrote: »

There is a lot more personal responsibility too. Most people on public transport in Sydney were wearing masks when it wasn't mandatory, although that had started to tail off until the Christmas outbreak.

It is definitely easier to get people to toe the line when they see positive results though. Pubs here were closed for around four months in all last year. How long have they been closed in Ireland? If you had a few months of normality you could use that to sell the next lockdown to people, but lockdowns in Ireland seem to drop case numbers without ever really reaching the point where people can go about their business as normal.

The problem is that, so long as infection rates in the UK are high (and they have been consistently high) no amount of lockdown in Ireland is going to get infection rates down to the levels that enable relative normality in Ireland — unless the government is prepared to close (and I mean close) the borders.

And, compared to Australia, Ireland is such an open country to the UK (inc NI) both socially and economically, that that would be (a) politically very difficult, if not actually impossible, and (b) massively more costly to the economy than the Australian border closure has been.

Which is kind of the point I came into the thread a while ago to make. Ireland is not Australia. There are useful lessons to be learned from the Australian experience, but Ireland can't simply mirror what Australia does and, if it did, it wouldn't have the outcomes that Australia has had.

derfderf

Peregrinus wrote: »

And, compared to Australia, Ireland is such an open country to the UK (inc NI) both socially and economically, that that would be (a) politically very difficult, if not actually impossible, and (b) massively more costly to the economy than the Australian border closure has been.

I agree with the rest of your post, but not this. It is more difficult, definitely, but hard decisions have to be made. The border wouldn't be closed to cargo, just people. I don't see how banning travel from the UK for a certain amount of time is more costly than completely locking down Ireland for the same amount of time.

Politically, somebody has to take a hit. The EU is supposed to be a free travel area, there were border closures. The were state border closures in Australia too. The North is difficult to police, but "closing" that border would stop most people that would normally travel. Obviously the type of people that scream at retail workers for asking them to wear a mask wouldn't comply, but you would hope that would be a small minority.

Bsharp

The difference is our cargo involves people. Australia doesn't have roll-on roll-off trucks coming from the UK and the continent. We have a few thousand trucks, each with a driver, coming in and out on a daily basis.

We need an agreed EU wide plan for Logistics if we're to follow the Australian approach. I can't imagine a truck driver, or haulage company, will risk coming here and getting quarantined for two weeks if they test positive on arrival. Then there's the issue of the truck, its goods and no replacement driver.

The alternative is to ban the trucks and see how long businesses last before we run out of stock, which obviously isn't palatable. That said, if we only allow freight movements then we've a better chance of keeping numbers low and businesses open.

httpete

Bsharp wrote: »

The difference is our cargo involves people. Australia doesn't have roll-on roll-off trucks coming from the UK and the continent. We have a few thousand trucks, each with a driver, coming in and out on a daily basis.

We need an agreed EU wide plan for Logistics if we're to follow the Australian approach. I can't imagine a truck driver, or haulage company, will risk coming here and getting quarantined for two weeks if they test positive on arrival. Then there's the issue of the truck, its goods and no replacement driver.

The alternative is to ban the trucks and see how long businesses last before we run out of stock, which obviously isn't palatable. That said, if we only allow freight movements then we've a better chance of keeping numbers low and businesses open.

This is the most ridiculous argument and I see it being made repeatedly. As if this was some problem without a solution. There are lots of solutions, the most simple and obvious one straight off the top of my head is to just switch the container onto a different truck once the incoming truck arrives in Ireland. Then send that incoming truck back, possibly with a different container of goods to make things more efficient. We don't need to wait 2 months for and 'EU wide plan for Logistics' for simple obvious measures. No wonder the EU and Ireland have made such a mess of things with that type of reasoning. Taiwan/NZ/Oz/South Korea/Singapore/etc just ACT, and act fast, they don't f*ck about with nonsense like long-drawn out reports or committees when it comes to making blatantly obvious measures to reduce risk.

Jesus christ I'm sick of hearing about why we can't do, this, that and the other to reduce the risk of importing the virus (especially new variants) when there are blatantly obvious solutions. Like with the North, you don't need to man very border crossing with Gardai, you can just block 95% of roads with heavy duty concrete bollards and man the remaining 5% with Gardai who can check that people passing through are on essential business. Even if it doesn't fully stop border crossing it will cut it to absolutely minuscule levels. Just like switching containers onto different trucks will cut risks from truck drivers importing the virus to minuscule levels. There are 100000s of people out of work, I'm sure we can find some to drive a few trucks.

puzl

httpete wrote: »

Even if it doesn't fully stop border crossing it will cut it to absolutely minuscule levels.

I agree with you on this. Tired of people saying "You're really excellent idea is not perfect and therefore won't help." Of course it will help. The race is on between vaccinations and the spread of new variants and *anything* we can do to dampen them will help. We used to call it flattening to curve to protect the health system. It seems like there's zero-covid or bust mentality now.

What you propose is very workable. Block off most roads except manned major arteries.

Bsharp

httpete wrote: »

This is the most ridiculous argument and I see it being made repeatedly. As if this was some problem without a solution. There are lots of solutions, the most simple and obvious one straight off the top of my head is to just switch the container onto a different truck once the incoming truck arrives in Ireland. Then send that incoming truck back, possibly with a different container of goods to make things more efficient. We don't need to wait 2 months for and 'EU wide plan for Logistics' for simple obvious measures. No wonder the EU and Ireland have made such a mess of things with that type of reasoning. Taiwan/NZ/Oz/South Korea/Singapore/etc just ACT, and act fast, they don't f*ck about with nonsense like long-drawn out reports or committees when it comes to making blatantly obvious measures to reduce risk.

Jesus christ I'm sick of hearing about why we can't do, this, that and the other to reduce the risk of importing the virus (especially new variants) when there are blatantly obvious solutions. Like with the North, you don't need to man very border crossing with Gardai, you can just block 95% of roads with heavy duty concrete bollards and man the remaining 5% with Gardai who can check that people passing through are on essential business. Even if it doesn't fully stop border crossing it will cut it to absolutely minuscule levels. Just like switching containers onto different trucks will cut risks from truck drivers importing the virus to minuscule levels. There are 100000s of people out of work, I'm sure we can find some to drive a few trucks.

So where are we getting double the amount of trucks to pull the trailers?

httpete

Bsharp wrote: »

So where are we getting double the amount of trucks to pull the trailers?

"Volume of trucks arriving in Ireland is 50% lower than expected due to Covid restrictions and Brexit"

https://www.thejournal.ie/volume-of-trucks-arriving-in-ireland-lower-than-expected-5328346-Jan2021/

And if we need more buy them..the cost of buying more trucks if it came to it would be a drop in the ocean compared to how much money has been and is being lost due to lockdowns.

derfderf

Some good points being made. I think the point I was trying to make is if cases spike because Ireland tried opening up pubs etc, and this leads to another lockdown, it's easier for the public to swallow that than to be locked at home, but the cases are steady/increasing because of people arriving from the North.
Obviously we can't completely stop people, there'd be no drugs in Ireland if the borders were completely secure, but most people will not come if there are obstacles in the way.

Chivito550

Melbourne back into a 5 day lockdown.

Always remember that the threat of a lockdown at a moments notice is not normality, no matter what our media here say. Australia may have things better than us right now, but nothing about this is normal.

People who had weddings planned for tomorrow have had the rug pulled from beneath them 1 day out. This is not "normality". You can't plan anything with confidence.

poppers

Chivito550 wrote: »

Melbourne back into a 5 day lockdown.

Always remember that the threat of a lockdown at a moments notice is not normality, no matter what our media here say. Australia may have things better than us right now, but nothing about this is normal.

People who had weddings planned for tomorrow have had the rug pulled from beneath them 1 day out. This is not "normality". You can't plan anything with confidence.

Apparently they had to send the fans home from the tennis before Dojovick match was over as they would have been in breach of the restrictions otherwise.

stargazer 68

Tweet from Adam Hills re Melbourne about all the restaurants etc having to close on one of their busiest weekends of the year. Cancel bookings and possibly dump all the stock they have ordered in.

is_that_so

stargazer 68 wrote: »

Tweet from Adam Hills re Melbourne about all the restaurants etc having to close on one of their busiest weekends of the year. Cancel bookings and possibly dump all the stock they have ordered in.

It's just a reminder that there is no one perfect approach to COVID.

httpete

Chivito550 wrote: »

Melbourne back into a 5 day lockdown.

Always remember that the threat of a lockdown at a moments notice is not normality, no matter what our media here say. Australia may have things better than us right now, but nothing about this is normal.

People who had weddings planned for tomorrow have had the rug pulled from beneath them 1 day out. This is not "normality". You can't plan anything with confidence.

They still have it infinitely better than us who are going to be locked down for at least 6 months this time round, only a month after emerging from the October-November lockdown.

If we are looking at several years before the end of this pandemic I would much rather spend it in a country that locks down 2 or 3 times a year for a week or whatever when necessary and is FULLY OPEN outside those periods, than in a country that is in level 5 down for 8-10 months of the year and even when it is not in level 5 it is not fully open.

httpete

If the vaccines don't get the job done, and it is by no means guaranteed that they will get the job done, people who are against zero Covid really need to start thinking how they would prefer to spend the next 3-7 years: locked down or at the very least heavily restricted for very significant portions of the year, or fully open with very strong controls on incoming travel, namely mandatory hotel quarantine. Now that we are restricted from flying out of the country anyway I am really failing to see what we are losing out on by going for a full zero Covid and opening up the country 100% internally. At the moment we have all the drawbacks of a zero Covid (no outgoing travel, that's really about the only drawback), with no of the benefits.

Chivito550

httpete wrote: »

They still have it infinitely better than us who are going to be locked down for at least 6 months this time round, only a month after emerging from the October-November lockdown.

If we are looking at several years before the end of this pandemic I would much rather spend it in a country that locks down 2 or 3 times a year for a week or whatever when necessary and is FULLY OPEN outside those periods, than in a country that is in level 5 down for 8-10 months of the year and even when it is not in level 5 it is not fully open.

Swings and Roundabouts. They are in their summer right now. Melbourne suffered a miserable 112 day lockdown last winter. Something similar could very well happen again next winter. I'm not overly envious.

I used to live there, and some Aussie friends were envious of us back in August!

httpete

Chivito550 wrote: »

Swings and Roundabouts. They are in their summer right now. Melbourne suffered a miserable 112 day lockdown last winter. Something similar could very well happen again next winter. I'm not overly envious.

I used to live there, and some Aussie friends were envious of us back in August!

They were in their second wave at that point, look at their graph: https://www.google.com/search?q=melbourne+coronavirus&oq=melbourne+coron&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433j69i57j0l4j46i175i199j0i457.2183j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Since then Australia has it controlled with mandatory hotel quarantine while we are facing a 6 month lockdown less than a month after coming out of the Oct-Nov lockdown.

So it is not swings and roundabouts, they have, and have had since September, a much higher quality life than us since they have the virus suppressed like NZ, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. They will continue to have a high quality of life with occasional short lockdowns if necessary, while we continue being locked up.

Are you honestly telling me life in Ireland vs life in Oz is 'swings and roundabouts' for the period Sept 2020 to June 2021 (and potentially even longer by the way the government here are talking)?

Chivito550

httpete wrote: »

They were in their second wave at that point, look at their graph: https://www.google.com/search?q=melbourne+coronavirus&oq=melbourne+coron&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433j69i57j0l4j46i175i199j0i457.2183j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Since then Australia has it controlled with mandatory hotel quarantine while we are facing a 6 month lockdown less than a month after coming out of the Oct-Nov lockdown.

So it is not swings and roundabouts, they have, and have had since September, a much higher quality life than us since they have the virus suppressed like NZ, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. They will continue to have a high quality of life with occasional short lockdowns if necessary, while we continue being locked up.

Are you honestly telling me life in Ireland vs life in Oz is 'swings and roundabouts' for the period Sept 2020 to June 2021 (and potentially even longer by the way the government here are talking)?

Nah, definitely not saying its better here.

I'm also focusing on Victoria, and Melbourne in particular tbh. The rest of Australia has had it very handy.

But it has been anything but in Melbourne. And it was late October when they came out of one of the strictest lockdowns on earth.

Let's see how it pans out for them this winter.

mandrake04

In fairness Melbourne being the most “European” type city in Australia took it literally and went the embarrassingly European approach which is kinda retarded.

Victoria but mostly Melbourne had 19400 community cases and the other 80% of the population only had about 3000



I think they will recover soon enough, they learnt a lot from the last outbreak and fighting this virus is a learning progression. Other countries still have to learn their own lessons in time, then the penny will drop.

I think people who think that 1st generation of vaccines is going beat this virus is delusional, it’s going take a hybrid of vaccinations, travel restrictions and local restrictions until 2nd and 3rd generation vaccines render it an endemic disease like the flu.

derfderf

Chivito550 wrote: »

Nah, definitely not saying its better here.

I'm also focusing on Victoria, and Melbourne in particular tbh. The rest of Australia has had it very handy.

But it has been anything but in Melbourne. And it was late October when they came out of one of the strictest lockdowns on earth.

Let's see how it pans out for them this winter.

I've read the toughest lockdown on earth thing a few times. How is is tougher than what's happening in Ireland at the moment? Outdoor masks is the only thing extra i can think of, but that's not much of a burden.

mandrake04

derfderf wrote: »

I've read the toughest lockdown on earth thing a few times. How is is tougher than what's happening in Ireland at the moment? Outdoor masks is the only thing extra i can think of, but that's not much of a burden.

More or less exactly same as L5 in Ireland, only differences I think aside from masks is in Victoria you are allowed to visit your partner that may be more than 5km away. There’s no restriction on distance in that respect.

is_that_so

One of the things you'd wonder about is how Australia and NZ will respond in a post-pandemic environment. Imagine at some future point most people are vaccinated, there are very few cases around the world and the majority of countries are 100 days+ without a case. A case or two emerge here and we'll test, contact trace, isolate, treat etc. with no effect whatsoever on normal life. What would the zero-COVID countries do in that instance? Will they once again lock down whole cities and borders?

httpete

is_that_so wrote: »

One of the things you'd wonder about is how Australia and NZ will respond in a post-pandemic environment. Imagine at some future point most people are vaccinated, there are very few cases around the world and the majority of countries are 100 days+ without a case. A case or two emerge here and we'll test, contact trace, isolate, treat etc. with no effect whatsoever on normal life. What would the zero-COVID countries do in that instance? Will they once again lock down whole cities and borders?

Yes that's probably what will happen because we all know Taiwan/NZ/Oz/Signapore/Vietnam/South Korea/etc are too thick to vaccinate their populations.

httpete

News articles like these are probably fake news:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/12/new-zealand-covid-vaccines-to-arrive-one-month-early-border-staff-to-be-inoculated-next-week
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202102090023

doublejobbing 2

Chivito550 wrote: »

Melbourne back into a 5 day lockdown.

Always remember that the threat of a lockdown at a moments notice is not normality, no matter what our media here say. Australia may have things better than us right now, but nothing about this is normal.

People who had weddings planned for tomorrow have had the rug pulled from beneath them 1 day out. This is not "normality". You can't plan anything with confidence.

is_that_so wrote: »

It's just a reminder that there is no one perfect approach to COVID.

Imagine thinking that living with the inconvenience that every once in a while your society may be put in hibernation for a fortnight is in any way comparable to living in a country that by Easter will have been in some form of lockdown for over a year (and of that time, what, 7 or 8 months of it having been hard lockdown?)

People who see anything wrong with how NZ and Australia handled this can only be from a FF/ FG diehard family, online party activists. Anybody who argues we could not have done this last year is beyond deluded. Indeed I think part of the reason the government has been so slow to introduce the steps they are bringing in now is that they will be ashamed when the clampdown on travel sees our cases go through the floor and proves that the steps should have been taken in April 2020, or, at the very latest, July when we had 9 odd cases a day.