COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Russman

El Sueño wrote: »

Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay

All EU countries will get their allocations at the same time, that’s been agreed. If the UK are ahead, they’ll be ahead of the whole EU not just us.
If the tweet shown earlier in the thread is not a wind up, this is a country that wants to put a flag on the vaccine vials - I wouldn’t be paying much heed to what they’re doing tbh.

stephenjmcd

Hardyn wrote: »

I seen that Stephen Donnelly said on Newstalk that he does not expect vaccinations to start until early in the new year.

Pretty much every other country I've seen expects to begin before the end of the year. What's the delay?

They don't really.

EU are telling member states new year.

The UK are being the UK and doing their own thing, they don't need to wait for EMA approval.

Voltex

El Sueño wrote: »

Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay

Almost everything about the vaccine development, approval and efficacy has so far been off the charts good. The SCM part of the puzzle should be relatively easy.

Ive seen first hand how well organised and run the testing regime is, so I have full confidence that the distribution of the vaccines will go beyond all expectations.

Id expect L2/3 through to Easter...then L2 through to summer...and then transition to L1 for autumn and back to normal for next Christmas.

lbj666

is_that_so wrote: »

In the context of the dates of our plan being completed that's as early as it can be. There's also no guarantee that all of the ambitious plans in other countries will come to pass as planned or promised. The actual approval date of vaccines will determine when it starts. At most they'll be 3 weeks ahead of us.

Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time

titan18

lbj666 wrote: »

Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time

There's 4 weeks left in the year. The vaccine hasn't even been approved yet, so you need approval and then deliveries to happen in that period before we can even begin a vaccine rollout. To me, that seems extremely unlikely to happen in most EU countries

noserider

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

I’m still of the opinion that we will make an absolute balls of this vaccine roll out and will somehow end up being last in the table. The tip of the iceberg is just showing now, wait until people see mass vaccinations in the UK and elsewhere and we’re left listening to Stephen Donnelly tell us how it isn’t possible. It’s only just beginning

100%. They have managed to develop a vaccine in record time.
Mean while in Ireland we get a committee together to talk about how we will get it to people.
Could this shower not have finalised a blueprint for the roll out before now based on all the signs a vaccine was imminent?

is_that_so

El Sueño wrote: »

Why shouldn't we be in line with them?

3 weeks would be a ridiculous delay

Well, approval is looking like it may be mid-December anyway so some of those dates are going to look like broken promises.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They don't really.

EU are telling member states new year.

The UK are being the UK and doing their own thing, they don't need to wait for EMA approval.

I know what you mean. His approach just irked me a bit.

is_that_so

lbj666 wrote: »

Except this is costing the ecomony more by the week than the amount of money you could even possibly throw at a vacine programme in that same time

Some of which will be clawed back in taxes and which is being financed by EU supports and virtually zero cost money. The ship still needs to be cautiously steered to the calmer waters of vaccine availability.

AdamD

Voltex wrote: »

Almost everything about the vaccine development, approval and efficacy has so far been off the charts good. The SCM part of the puzzle should be relatively easy.

Ive seen first hand how well organised and run the testing regime is, so I have full confidence that the distribution of the vaccines will go beyond all expectations.

Id expect L2/3 through to Easter...then L2 through to summer...and then transition to L1 for autumn and back to normal for next Christmas.

Level 2 through all summer would be incredibly disappointing

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

Level 2 through all summer would be incredibly disappointing

I'd agree. A possible Level 4/5 in the New Year for 3 weeks, Level 3 then. By March there should be reasonable numbers vaccinated which should be Level 1/2. After that numbers will dictate whether there's a case for restrictions.

marno21

Level 1 by March. Level 0+ soon after with caveats to stop complete pandemonium unfolding and back to full normality then at which time Sam McConkey buys a new laptop to take up tweeting instead

Russman

marno21 wrote: »

Level 1 by March. Level 0+ soon after with caveats to stop complete pandemonium unfolding and back to full normality then at which time Sam McConkey buys a new laptop to take up tweeting instead

I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.

Micky 32

Russman wrote: »

I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.

My prediction ( only an opinion) fairly back to normal Q3 2021.

St.Spodo

My guess would be level 3 becomes level 2 in April, level 1 at the height of the summer into early autumn and level 0 next October.

More accessible and more accurate rapid testing will be needed to give music festivals a chance next summer.

Water John

I think we'll all be vaccinated by the end of May if not earlier. Immunity in early June. This will roll out very rapidly once it really starts. Don't mind the UK political nonsense.

braychelsea

Russman wrote: »

I doubt even the most positive would predict L1 by March tbh. That’s incredibly optimistic. It’ll depend on how quick they can lash out the vaccine(s). Nah, there’s no way, even doing 500k people per month we’d still be way short of where we’d need to be I think.

Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

Water John

braychelsea wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

I'd go with Level 3 out further. I'd always push to the end line, maybe May.

Stark

Hopefully the R number will drop with the vaccines. That should allow us to stay in a low level and continue to suppress the spread. With any luck, we might be able to stay in Level 1/2 and have levels reduce to the levels we saw this summer.

daheff

braychelsea wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

1m is only about 20% of the population....so realistically at that rate we're talking Sept/Oct to get to a 70% vaccination rate...being optimistic. Knowing the HSE they'll fck it up and it'll be Sep/Oct 2022 before we get to that level.


Hopefully he vaccination has a long term benefit, and not just 3-6 months.

Dickie10

i wonder how realistic is it to think we might have things like gigs or concerts this summer? I am really getting hard to believe wet pubs will be open properly by the summer let alone a gig with 100 plus people, or concerts/festivals of over 1000 people in June/July

Dickie10

I see Harry Styles concert in 3 Arena sold out for March 19th , cant see that being on. Stormzy sold out in April also 3arena

What Username Guidelines

Micky 32 wrote: »

My prediction ( only an opinion) fairly back to normal Q3 2021.

I’m thinking the same. Purely in the hope that I’m pleasantly surprised tbh.

Water John

I think outdoor events, small and large will be on during the summer.

Pasteur.

Will everyone be getting a digital certificate or how will proof work

I presume we'll have to log in and upload proof and there'll be a universal certificate of some sort issued

funnydoggy

We don't need here immunity really do we? Get the HCWs and the vulnerable vaccinated and start on the rest of the population then, but by then the hospitalisations/ICU admissions/death rate should just drop away to next to nothing.

Or I'm being too hopeful am I

Water John

funnydoggy wrote: »

We don't need here immunity really do we? Get the HCWs and the vulnerable vaccinated and start on the rest of the population then, but by then the hospitalisations/ICU admissions/death rate should just drop away to next to nothing.

Or I'm being too hopeful am I

If you look at it coldly, they'll use whatever means they can, carrot and stick, to get the numbers getting vaccinated up high. Call me cynical but needing proof of vaccination to get into events in 2021 is one weapon.

Gael23

Why do we need to vaccinate those who have little to no symptoms before we open up?

Stark

Gael23 wrote: »

Why do we need to vaccinate those who have little to no symptoms before we open up?

Wow, you really don't know how vaccines work, do you.

Gael23

Stark wrote: »

Wow, you really don't know how vaccines work, do you.

The regime we have at the moment so to prevent death and reduce severe illness leading to hospitalisation. So once the groups most at risk of serious illness and death are vaccinated that’s a huge part of the battle won. Yes everyone needs to get it but can they not get it in a functioning world

Russman

braychelsea wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly announced this morning he expects 1 million people to be vaccinated by March. I don't see any argument for not going to level 1 by then, as all the elderly and vulnerable population will be vaccinated.

There’s still a small percentage of “non vulnerable” ending up in ICU though. If we opened everything up, that could be a very big number relative to our capacity to manage it. If we take a million kids out of the 5 million population, that still leaves 4 million adults. I don’t think getting 1 million of them covered would quite get us there to L1. All speculation though.

Russman

Gael23 wrote: »

Why do we need to vaccinate those who have little to no symptoms before we open up?

There are still plenty in that age group who end up hospitalised. Even if it’s only 1% it’s potentially very big number for our health services.

JacksonHeightsOwn

Gael23 wrote: »

The regime we have at the moment so to prevent death and reduce severe illness leading to hospitalisation. So once the groups most at risk of serious illness and death are vaccinated that’s a huge part of the battle won. Yes everyone needs to get it but can they not get it in a functioning world

I find this attitude to vaccines perplexing, particularly because the vast majority of them are living a healthy lifestyle because of the vaccines their parents made them get as babies.

But somehow this logic seems lost in them.....

astrofool

Gael23 wrote: »

Why do we need to vaccinate those who have little to no symptoms before we open up?

This has been answered multiple times on the thread, while you have been around as well.

But to answer again, some people who are most at risk will not be able to get the vaccine either (immuno-suppressed). It also allows us to reduce and potentially eliminate the virus by getting the entire population vaccinated, reducing the need for further vaccinations in the future. A very quick read on vaccines will tell you this (maybe go anonymous so that suggestions are outside your usual recommendations).

Look forward to answering again when you ask in 7-10 days time.

What Username Guidelines

Gael23 wrote: »

The regime we have at the moment so to prevent death and reduce severe illness leading to hospitalisation. So once the groups most at risk of serious illness and death are vaccinated that’s a huge part of the battle won. Yes everyone needs to get it but can they not get it in a functioning world

For some of those at risk, they may be unable to take the vaccine as it may be intolerable to them, it’s why those who can get the vaccine should get it. It’s where the phrase herd immunity comes in, a high percentage of the herd vaccinated protects the unvaccinated. It sounds like this vaccine is effective in older age groups, unlike the flu vaccine which isn’t as effective with age. If everyone just gave up getting a flu vaccine because they “never get flu” there would be more circulating therefore putting vulnerable at risk.

My daughter is missing a few vaccines so we rely on others to be vaccinated to protect her. I understand why there may be trepidation in this vaccine due to the perceived speed of development and misinformation, but if you are planning on getting it, know you’re helping others be safe as well as yourself.

Gael23

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

For some of those at risk, they may be unable to take the vaccine as it may be intolerable to them, it’s why those who can get the vaccine should get it. It’s where the phrase herd immunity comes in, a high percentage of the herd vaccinated protects the unvaccinated. It sounds like this vaccine is effective in older age groups, unlike the flu vaccine which isn’t as effective with age. If everyone just gave up getting a flu vaccine because they “never get flu” there would be more circulating therefore putting vulnerable at risk.

My daughter is missing a few vaccines so we rely on others to be vaccinated to protect her. I understand why there may be trepidation in this vaccine due to the perceived speed of development and misinformation, but if you are planning on getting it, know you’re helping others be safe as well as yourself.

I’ll be getting it if it means being able to live my life again but it appears that’s not going to be the case.Im aware it’s nit going to be the day the first vaccine is administered but there needs to be a path out

On the issue of immune compromised individuals, i know all cases are different but in terms of people with autoimmune conditions these vaccines are safe once they aren’t live

Irish Stones

Hardyn wrote: »

Pretty much every other country I've seen expects to begin before the end of the year. What's the delay?

I don't know the schedules of other countries in the detail, but Italy will start at the end of January.

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

I would say foreigners and illegals ( like in the USA etc) will get access to the vaccines because this is about curbing the spread of the virus.

I would even say that illegals might get the vaccine before legal citizens.
Just it happens with the swab tests. A citizen of my country is given an appointment to get access to the test, usually in a week. Illegals that arrive of boats get the swab test right away.

pjohnson

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I find this attitude to vaccines perplexing, particularly because the vast majority of them are living a healthy lifestyle because of the vaccines their parents made them get as babies.

But somehow this logic seems lost in them.....

Andrew Wakefield and his MMR vaccine causes autism shíte. The anti-vax "movement" is tragic and takes advantage of those who lack logic and education.

Gael23

Is the report from the taskforce on December 11 going to be made public?

Micky 32

Don’t you just feel so reassured when you hear Donnelly use words like “ potentially “ early next year for vaccine roll out.”

Apparently the task force are meeting for the second time today.

Mitch Connor

Gael23 wrote: »

Is the report from the taskforce on December 11 going to be made public?

according to the independent MM will present the plan to the country on December 11

AdamD

Seems a bit mental that we're targeting to hear about our plan for the first time on the same day other countries are looking to begin their rollout

funnydoggy

For a government that loves greyhound racing, they're very late out of the gate.

Dickie10

why do so many of us on here just have a horrible gut feeling that our government will drag its feet ion this. ? Is there any reason we should not have all these vaccines in the country right now in cold storage ready to vaccinate 24 hrs after the greeen light is given. All nurseing home patients should be done by december 31 , all others over 65 by Mid feb. this should be a 14 hr a day , 7 a day a week thing , maybe 3- 4 days off during xmas max . No reason people in nurseing homes shouldnt be vacinated all through xmas. What exactly will we need to wait for ? if this was done we would be at level 1 on April 1st and get a full blown easter. it should be no 1 priority to be at level 1 by easter , would be a massive boost to the economy with sports events ,staycations etc. absolutly no reason why we shouldnt

CIARAN_BOYLE

AdamD wrote: »

Seems a bit mental that we're targeting to hear about our plan for the first time on the same day other countries are looking to begin their rollout

Seems a bit mental that other countries have a distribution date in mind before the vaccines are approved.

Russman

Dickie10 wrote: »

why do so many of us on here just have a horrible gut feeling that our government will drag its feet ion this. ? Is there any reason we should not have all these vaccines in the country right now in cold storage ready to vaccinate 24 hrs after the greeen light is given. All nurseing home patients should be done by december 31 , all others over 65 by Mid feb. this should be a 14 hr a day , 7 a day a week thing , maybe 3- 4 days off during xmas max . No reason people in nurseing homes shouldnt be vacinated all through xmas. What exactly will we need to wait for ? if this was done we would be at level 1 on April 1st and get a full blown easter. it should be no 1 priority to be at level 1 by easter , would be a massive boost to the economy with sports events ,staycations etc. absolutly no reason why we shouldnt

Maybe we do ? Who knows. I remember a radio interview with the boss of Open Orphan a couple of weeks ago and he said they were very involved and that the Pfizer vaccine was in the country already. Now, I suppose he could have meant that there's 10 vials of it in a lab somewhere, so he's not lying, but maybe there are stocks of it ready to go.

Irish Stones

Dickie10 wrote: »

Is there any reason we should not have all these vaccines in the country right now in cold storage ready to vaccinate 24 hrs after the greeen light is given. All nurseing home patients should be done by december 31 , all others over 65 by Mid feb.

This depends on the capacity of the distribution system. If the staff is low in numbers, it might take weeks, not days.
In Italy, the government said they will be able to vaccinate 300k people a day when in full regime, through 300 vaccination centres.
In my opinion is a very poor achievement.

Micky 32

Dickie10 wrote: »

why do so many of us on here just have a horrible gut feeling that our government will drag its feet ion this. ? Is there any reason we should not have all these vaccines in the country right now in cold storage ready to vaccinate 24 hrs after the greeen light is given. All nurseing home patients should be done by december 31 , all others over 65 by Mid feb. this should be a 14 hr a day , 7 a day a week thing , maybe 3- 4 days off during xmas max . No reason people in nurseing homes shouldnt be vacinated all through xmas. What exactly will we need to wait for ? if this was done we would be at level 1 on April 1st and get a full blown easter. it should be no 1 priority to be at level 1 by easter , would be a massive boost to the economy with sports events ,staycations etc. absolutly no reason why we shouldnt

It could be possible we could have a supply in this country ready to go once approved. It maybe just kept quiet so people don’t get too excited and then drop their guard because the vaccine is out there.

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Why do we need to vaccinate those who have little to no symptoms before we open up?

If we get to 70%+ immunity via vaccinations then the virus has a very limited pool to infect. Many people get the flu' jab each year and may really be at risk because people have told them they are. If Donnelly is right in his claim about March and we assume kids don't really need to be on the vaccination lists that could be nearly 50% of the population done by then. 25% alone nearly covers all the at risk people.