COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Van.Bosch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Good post. I agree with timeline.

Yeah - seems believable but I think travel next summer will be fairly normal if cases start dropping as people get vaccinated.

eigrod

donegal_man wrote: »

Was talking to my GP this morning and he is quite cautiously optimistic about the vaccine role out. He reckons realistically we are looking at six months for the population to be vaccinated followed by a four to six month period of slowly easing restrictions and public being wary of whether it has been effective or not so be this time next year before we see a return to what he called relative normality.

I think the easing of restrictions will happen in parallel with the vaccination programme, ie as elderly, vulnerable & front line are vaccinated, things will then be eased and monitored. I think 5-6 months.

ACitizenErased

EMA has set a date of Dec 29th at the latest for a Pfizer decision

CIARAN_BOYLE

ACitizenErased wrote: »

EMA has set a date of Dec 29th at the latest for a Pfizer decision

And 12 January for the Moderna decision.

CIARAN_BOYLE

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

And 12 January for the Moderna decision.

Probably why they have been saying vaccination will start in January in ireland.I wonder when Oxford will be approved. Realistically that's what the ordinary joe soap could get. The others seem hard to roll out quickly.

ACitizenErased

Find it strange that the EMA is taking longer than the FDA despite the EMA starting 'rolling reviews'

Irish Stones

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Because I've read about the 1920s. We'll be back to normal next year.

In the 1920's they were back to normal even without medicine, vaccines, technology and with lack of information and education.
This is part of what Mike Yeadon said in that video, he said no pandemic has ever been ended with a vaccine.

marno21

Given that manufacturing is the challenge here that's not a major issue. We would have been vaccinating a tiny amount in December anyway so while this is ongoing manufacturing can be scaled up.

Now that we have firm dates for the latest at which these can be approved, the Irish Government and the DoH are on notice. They had want to be getting their skates on.

donegal_man

donegal_man wrote: »

Was talking to my GP this morning and he is quite cautiously optimistic about the vaccine role out. He reckons realistically we are looking at six months for the population to be vaccinated followed by a four to six month period of slowly easing restrictions and public being wary of whether it has been effective or not so be this time next year before we see a return to what he called relative normality.

That is pretty much the timeline I am prepared for, but I think that restrictions by the summer will really only be around crowded indoor venues like nightclubs. Pubs and venues will probably remain seating only for a good while. And maybe capacity limits in outdoor stadiums, whether for sport or music. I don't see restrictions in areas other than those specific ones lasting beyond June.

The mask requirement will probably linger for a while, but I imagine that adherence will fall away quite substantially

So for the many people who are less interested in those activities it will all be over

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find it strange that the EMA is taking longer than the FDA despite the EMA starting 'rolling reviews'

At least manufacturing is ongoing at the same speed regardless, if approval came through tomorrow you'd only have the doses that are already done, if it comes in 4 weeks time you have that plus what has been done in the meantime.

I must admit though I was a little disappointed to see batches going from Europe to the USA, had been selfishly hoping a bit of vaccine nationalism would be in play and whatever was made in Europe would be used in Europe.

Cork2021

I suppose the 11th of December vaccine plan was in line with the EMA not having a decision until the end of the month.

Moderna signed off for 875,000 doses

https://twitter.com/maryeregan/status/1333753291155632130?s=21

brisan

Water John wrote: »

Vaccine roll out plan for Ireland to be announced next week.

No point in rolling out a plan if the logistics and the efficiency needed to do so is not there

hmmm

Cork2021 wrote: »

I suppose the 11th of December vaccine plan was in line with the EMA not having a decision until the end of the month.

Moderna signed off for 875,000 doses

What's nearly more important I think at this stage is how quickly they will arrive. We've ordered 2 million Pfizer doses, so that's 1.4 million people. That seems to be very similar to the figure we are told is the total "vulnerable" population

Intuitively I assume that the impact from the first 10% of vaccinations in crowded locations like hospitals & nursing homes with lots of vulnerable people will have a much bigger impact on reducing spread and mortality than the final 10% to get vaccinated. Even the first injection should provide a small bit of extra protection. I'm hopeful that things start to get better faster than we might expect in late Spring as vaccination numbers grow.

brisan

Micky 32 wrote: »

.

I’m sure they’ll be on proposing restrictions for other issues when Covid is gone no doubt.

Well if Tony gets his way alcohol will be the next virus to crush

CruelSummer

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I guess the journalists should stop asking questions about the vaccines then?

If McConkey is asked about a vaccine his response will be that he hasnt been shown data and cant make conclusions.

Why would you say that? What a peculiar response. McConkey stated last night it would be very ‘helpful’ for the data to be published. He was implying that access wasn’t being given to it. I’m not a supporter of McConkey and just asked about his comments here re data and where it was being shared.
Why is the vaccine argument so supercharged? We should all ask questions especially as all should be done to avoid a Pandemrix type of fall out. I’ve stated before I’m not anti vaccine, I’ve had plenty in my life including yellow fever. But the desire for some to rush out the vaccine and rely solely on it to deal with Covid is my main concern.

ceegee

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find it strange that the EMA is taking longer than the FDA despite the EMA starting 'rolling reviews'

I'd imagine having to approve the SPC and PIL in 20 odd different languages slows things down slightly. A lot more scope for minor issues that need to be amended.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find it strange that the EMA is taking longer than the FDA despite the EMA starting 'rolling reviews'

Europe often take longer than FDA for approvals

Cork2021

So adding up all the probable approved vaccines, how many doses will we get in January?

timsey tiger

hmmm wrote: »

What's nearly more important I think at this stage is how quickly they will arrive. We've ordered 2 million Pfizer doses, so that's 1.4 million people. That seems to be very similar to the figure we are told is the total "vulnerable" population

Intuitively I assume that the impact from the first 10% of vaccinations in crowded locations like hospitals & nursing homes with lots of vulnerable people will have a much bigger impact on reducing spread and mortality than the final 10% to get vaccinated. Even the first injection should provide a small bit of extra protection. I'm hopeful that things start to get better faster than we might expect in late Spring as vaccination numbers grow.

If we coud knock out the spread in the health sector in January, that would really take the edge off.

brisan

Pasteur. wrote: »

And do what

Logistics ,that's what they are good at and a proper chain of command
All the things the HSE have proved themselves to be incapable of
The army will be able to get it where it needs to be when it needs to be there

ixoy

CruelSummer wrote: »

But the desire for some to rush out the vaccine and rely solely on it to deal with Covid is my main concern.

But it's not really rushed. All phases so far have been done in the standard fashion and of course that's the role of the EMA here, to confirm that and ensure there's no short cuts taken. The 10 year stuff that we keep seeing elsewhere is false equivalency.

That's the point that needs to be hammered home though - not just on boards, but to a wider public and that's up to the government to inform or maybe even have it an EU level. There aren't shortcuts here taken at a safety level and really, vaccines are the sole way to get out of this mess right now.

brisan

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I base it on common sense. I think the British are silly for publishing their plans when they haven't got any clue

Cheap sound bites thrown out here by you. What do you base the idea that they could have protected nursing homes and hospitals significantly better?

Do you think nursing homes could have told their staff to move out of their homes and into a hotel where they wouldn't be allowed leave except for work? Do you think nursing homes could have banned 100% of visits including compassionate visits in end of life cases?

That's what protecting nursing homes mean.

There are more people in our hospitals with covid who went into hospital without covid than those that went into hospital with covid
Covid free hospitals ,daily tests for all HCW and nursing home residents, its not rocket science

AdamD

I hope the report on the 11th is public and contains some figures, even if they are provisional.

E.G. we expect to recieve X amount of each vaccine in each month of 2021 and we expect to vaccinate X amount of people in each month

Realistic to expect that or no?

iguana

eigrod wrote: »

I think the easing of restrictions will happen in parallel with the vaccination programme, ie as elderly, vulnerable & front line are vaccinated, things will then be eased and monitored. I think 5-6 months.

Restrictions eased back very significantly in July with no vaccines at all. In spring 2021 as infection and hospitalisation figures go down, possibly after a second winter lockdown in January/February and vaccine roll out starts, restrictions will be eased. But hopefully, as more people are vaccinated, there will be no tightening of restrictions again after each loosening. So I suspect we'll have a much closer to normal life by Easter, with it getting more and more normal in stages every few weeks after that.

ixoy

AdamD wrote: »

I hope the report on the 11th is public and contains some figures, even if they are provisional.

E.G. we expect to recieve X amount of each vaccine in each month of 2021 and we expect to vaccinate X amount of people in each month

Realistic to expect that or no?

I'd hope to see that too but I've a feeling they won't commit to any such targets either out of fear they won't get the shipments then or covering their collective asses in case they bungle it.
Certainly, it's something they should aim for or at least explain why they can't set such goals. Those goals are important for getting public buy in and showing us there's an end in sight - even RTE used the phrase "glimmer of hope" which, for them, is the most positive thing they've said all year around this...

CIARAN_BOYLE

CruelSummer wrote: »

Why would you say that? What a peculiar response. McConkey stated last night it would be very ‘helpful’ for the data to be published. He was implying that access wasn’t being given to it.

McConkey is a scientist. He is well regarded internationally about the topic of vaccines.

If they want to know about vaccines he will be brought on.

However he is a scientist and wont make guesses.

As such he cant really add much to the conversation about vaccines. Everyone knows the way an interview with Mcconkey will go. It's happened a few times already.

Is the vaccine good?

I need data on that. They haven't published any. It would be nice if they did.

Will the vaccine get us back to normal?

Well we need a lot of people vaccinated to get herd immunity. That will take a long time. We still dont have data on how well the vaccine works. It wont be a silver bullet in January or February.

Micky 32

ixoy wrote: »

But it's not really rushed. All phases so far have been done in the standard fashion and of course that's the role of the EMA here, to confirm that and ensure there's no short cuts taken. The 10 year stuff that we keep seeing elsewhere is false equivalency.

That's the point that needs to be hammered home though - not just on boards, but to a wider public and that's up to the government to inform or maybe even have it an EU level. There aren't shortcuts here taken at a safety level and really, vaccines are the sole way to get out of this mess right now.

Because of my work i deal with the public a lot. I’m getting a lot of this “ but it’s rushed and not safe” if i bring up a discussion about the upcoming vaccine. To be honest it’s a bit worrying how misinformed people are about the vaccine. As i said earlier i hope the vaccines prevent people from being contagious aswell as preventing illness because at least people who want normality back will just take the vaccine and the ones who don’t let them stay locked up as far as I’m concerned.

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

I suppose the 11th of December vaccine plan was in line with the EMA not having a decision until the end of the month.

Moderna signed off for 875,000 doses

https://twitter.com/maryeregan/status/1333753291155632130?s=21

Its funny how yesterday the perceived wisdom on here was excoriating our officials for delaying while everyone else was progressing, but it now appears our plan is aligned to the European timelines

Gael23

Is Moderna 2 shots?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Gael23 wrote: »

Is Moderna 2 shots?

Yes.

ShowMeTheCash

I have tuned out of this thread for a few weeks...


Has there been any plan mentioned yet in terms of the roll out?

Gael23

eigrod wrote: »

I think the easing of restrictions will happen in parallel with the vaccination programme, ie as elderly, vulnerable & front line are vaccinated, things will then be eased and monitored. I think 5-6 months.

Would agree with this with rational leadership but not with NPHETin charge

What Username Guidelines

Deleted User wrote: »

Its funny how yesterday the perceived wisdom on here was excoriating our officials for delaying while everyone else was progressing, but it now appears our plan is aligned to the European timelines

We need to try to remember we've been in this for 9 months, in another 9 months we know we'll very likely be in a much better position. At the beginning we had no idea how long it would go on at all, how it would go, etc. I'm sure people are ready for it to be over, but a few weeks delay here and there should be measured in the context of the whole thing. We're close

Gael23

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

We need to try to remember we've been in this for 9 months, in another 9 months we know we'll very likely be in a much better position. At the beginning we had no idea how long it would go on at all, how it would go, etc. I'm sure people are ready for it to be over, but a few weeks delay here and there should be measured in the context of the whole thing. We're close

I don’t want to keep living like this for as long as NPHET will force us to

ixoy

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

We still dont have data on how well the vaccine works. It wont be a silver bullet in January or February.

No it won't be but the overwhelming narrative from somewhere like RTE is that there'll likely never be a silver bullet, that there's no end in sight, etc. There's a fair chance this will be the silver bullet for Christmas 2021, or even Summer 2021, but you'd never get that impression from our state broadcaster.

ShowMeTheCash

ixoy wrote: »

No it won't be but the overwhelming narrative from somewhere like RTE is that there'll likely never be a silver bullet, that there's no end in sight, etc. There's a fair chance this will be the silver bullet for Christmas 2021, or even Summer 2021, but you'd never get that impression from our state broadcaster.

I was thinking the same. Spring - Summer we should see the same down turn in numbers like we do with seasonal flu, I hope some kind of normality may return and we have a window for the roll out spring - summer which effectively means we do not need to go into lockdown come Oct 2021.


It is going to be a long winter!

funnydoggy

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

It is going to be a long winter!

It's the last push really. This is all so depressing as f*ck, but we got this

Gael23

funnydoggy wrote: »

It's the last push really. This is all so depressing as f*ck, but we got this

It would help to see a plan for rollout along with removal of restrictions. Nit just a wait and see and make it up as we go along approach.

Russman

I think summer '21 is a reasonable expectation for something approaching semi normality. I also think most people accept that.
What I'd hate to see happen or fear might happen, is that we find out Ireland is getting, say, 500k doses of vaccine per month, but we only have the capacity to distribute 100k per month. That would really p1$$ people off I think.

funnydoggy

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

... summer which effectively means we do not need to go into lockdown come Oct 2021.


It is going to be a long winter!

Adding to this - if we did go into lockdown come October 2021, it would be seen as one of the biggest failures in the history of the state, IMO. It's political suicide. They want it out, and out quickly

marno21

If other countries, especially counties run by leaders that a large proportion of the public in Ireland perceive as imbeciles, such as the US and the UK, get this done and return to normal before us there will be unrest in this country.

Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP. It’s costing the country a small fortune and it’s demoralising the country rapidly.

The last lockdown just in PUP payments cost half the projected cost of the Dublin MetroLink, for one 6 week lockdown!! And that’s just PUP, let alone all the other costs involved.

funnydoggy

marno21 wrote: »

If other countries, especially counties run by leaders that a large proportion of the public in Ireland perceive as imbeciles, such as the US and the UK, get this done and return to normal before us there will be unrest in this country.

Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP. It’s costing the country a small fortune and it’s demoralising the country rapidly.

The last lockdown just in PUP payments cost half the projected cost of the Dublin MetroLink, for one 6 week lockdown!! And that’s just PUP, let alone all the other costs involved.

Great point. I don't claim to know the logistics of things but surely they can flake these vaccines around like nobody's business sooner rather than later when other countries are doing it?

Sky King

Russman wrote: »

I think summer '21 is a reasonable expectation for something approaching semi normality. I also think most people accept that.
What I'd hate to see happen or fear might happen, is that we find out Ireland is getting, say, 500k doses of vaccine per month, but we only have the capacity to distribute 100k per month. That would really p1$$ people off I think.

I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

I can't wait to see the plan!

VonLuck

While the speed at getting a vaccine is incredible, it's still a bit demoralising to know that we could be looking at some level of restrictions for another year. I know it's likely that they will be scaled back greatly, but I don't foresee pubs or concerts being back to normal until this time next year.

I wonder if venues will start adopting the approach of having to prove that you're vaccinated in order to return to normal? I believe Ticketmaster were in the news about it recently. Regardless, the general population which are not in the vulnerable category or frontline workers are unlikely to be vaccinated until the latter part of next year.

funnydoggy

Sky King wrote: »

I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

I can't wait to see the plan!

Private companies could help.


Boots have the infrastructure and capacity to roll out Moderna shots for example.


I wonder will the HSE reach out.

Russman

Sky King wrote: »

I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

I can't wait to see the plan!

Absolutely.
Maybe I'm too optimistic or hopeful, it'll probably be autumn rather than summer, but if we can dish out the vaccine at the same rate as we can test, it would be super. What is it, about 12,000 tests per day we can do ? That number of vaccinations would put a big dent in it after a couple of months.

I do think that, given the borrowing we're doing for the lockdown supports (which I've no issue with as long as Europe stays on the same page), an extra billion to really throw the kitchen sink at vaccinations, would be well spent.

I think the optics are also important, if we're seen to be doing as good a job as we can, the public will buy in and accept its not going to be an overnight thing. If we're perceived as dragging our heels, patience will wear thin.

Sky King

As someone else said above, the population would be rightly fcuked off if the likes of France and Germany were sailing ahead with their rollout, and we were muddling around trying to get the job done.

Politically, there's a lot to be gained from doing this right, so I'd say its in their interests up in Kildare street to make this work.

Van.Bosch

Sky King wrote: »

As someone else said above, the population would be rightly fcuked off if the likes of France and Germany were sailing ahead with their rollout, and we were muddling around trying to get the job done.

Politically, there's a lot to be gained from doing this right, so I'd say its in their interests up in Kildare street to make this work.

Economically too.

Gael23

funnydoggy wrote: »

Private companies could help.


Boots have the infrastructure and capacity to roll out Moderna shots for example.


I wonder will the HSE reach out.

They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine

Pasteur.

Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around