COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

ixoy

marno21 wrote: »

Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP.

No logical excuse but then you remember you're dealing with the HSE. They'll probably want a manager recruited for every second person administering the vaccine and stall until some overwrought multi-tiered org chart is in place.

is_that_so

VonLuck wrote: »

While the speed at getting a vaccine is incredible, it's still a bit demoralising to know that we could be looking at some level of restrictions for another year. I know it's likely that they will be scaled back greatly, but I don't foresee pubs or concerts being back to normal until this time next year.

I wonder if venues will start adopting the approach of having to prove that you're vaccinated in order to return to normal? I believe Ticketmaster were in the news about it recently. Regardless, the general population which are not in the vulnerable category or frontline workers are unlikely to be vaccinated until the latter part of next year.

It shouldn't be most of the year, till March anyway, and as for venues, not sure that would be legal that would be here as it's up to them to ensure it's safe for everyone.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine

And they should get it. What’s a few euro to Boots in the context of all spent so far

is_that_so

Pasteur. wrote: »

Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around

Vaccines have got us out of TB, whooping cough deaths, polio and smallpox so what's your plan? Few human viruses just go away. Vietnam have a strict quarantine protocol so not normal.

Marhay70

brisan wrote: »

There are more people in our hospitals with covid who went into hospital without covid than those that went into hospital with covid
Covid free hospitals ,daily tests for all HCW and nursing home residents, its not rocket science

.

Listening to Pat Kenny this morning they were interviewing people in the queue to get into Penneys in Blanchardstown, one of those interviewed said she was a health care assistant in St James. She was making all the right noises about shopping early to avoid crowds. face masks, social distancing etc but I couldn't help thinking I wouldn't be very happy if I had a vulnerable relative under her care.

AdamD

Marhay70 wrote: »

.

Listening to Pat Kenny this morning they were interviewing people in the queue to get into Penneys in Blanchardstown, one of those interviewed said she was a health care assistant in St James. She was making all the right noises about shopping early to avoid crowds. face masks, social distancing etc but I couldn't help thinking I wouldn't be very happy if I had a vulnerable relative under her care.

Find this a bit amusing, so you expect your health care workers to take the brunt of being on the frontline, at the most danger of catching the virus, but then to also shutdown all social activity outside of this?

hmmm

Pasteur. wrote: »

Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around

Hopefully we won't be caught out so badly next time. I think we've had 3 new coronavirus in the past 20 years, we'll surely get another - and next time could be the one with the 40% death rate.

I still think the West will be more inclined to invest in science based solutions rather than public health as it's just easier to do this where you have an emphasis on individual rights.

No doubt there's going to be spare manufacturing capacity to get a new mRNA vaccine out the door very fast the next time we need it. Also I expect lots of investment in testing. The military in the US in particular will put a lot of resources into this, they've had aircraft carriers out of action because of this and the entire chain of command at risk when Trump got infected.

lbj666

Pasteur. wrote: »

Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around

Vietnam is still a communist state when it wants to be

Marhay70

AdamD wrote: »

Find this a bit amusing, so you expect your health care workers to take the brunt of being on the frontline, at the most danger of catching the virus, but then to also shutdown all social activity outside of this?

No, but I expect them to show responsibility. The advice all along to avoid covid has been to stay away from crowded places and as we saw after the last lockdown was lifted, Penneys is not the place to do that. There are lots of places to get knickers and pyjamas, (her shopping list) including online.

VonLuck

is_that_so wrote: »

It shouldn't be most of the year, till March anyway, and as for venues, not sure that would be legal that would be here as it's up to them to ensure it's safe for everyone.

What makes you think that? From what I've heard in the news so far they're only expecting a million people to be vaccinated by the end of the summer. That's not enough to eliminate social distancing or other restrictions.

is_that_so

VonLuck wrote: »

What makes you think that? From what I've heard in the news so far they're only expecting a million people to be vaccinated by the end of the summer. That's not enough to eliminate social distancing or other restrictions.

Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.

marno21

is_that_so wrote: »

Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.

If we have 1 million of the most vulnerable vaccinated this becomes a completely different kettle of fish. The hospitalisation rate will be well under 1% and by March we will hopefully be able deploy the Oxford vaccine which won’t have the scarcity issue.

I hope they are getting ready for a mass vaccination of less at risk groups at the end of Q1, early Q2 with Oxford and maybe J&J which will have bigger supply. We’ll have this killed by the middle/end of Q2 then.

is_that_so

marno21 wrote: »

If we have 1 million of the most vulnerable vaccinated this becomes a completely different kettle of fish. The hospitalisation rate will be well under 1% and by March we will hopefully be able deploy the Oxford vaccine which won’t have the scarcity issue.

I hope they are getting ready for a mass vaccination of less at risk groups at the end of Q1, early Q2 with Oxford and maybe J&J which will have bigger supply. We’ll have this killed by the middle/end of Q2 then.

With 3 vaccines imminent, all of this is possible. I agree on the high risk categories, it should make a big difference.

VonLuck

is_that_so wrote: »

Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.

Did he say that recently? I only heard about 1 million by the end of summer a couple of days ago. Might have been updated since.

is_that_so

VonLuck wrote: »

Did he say that recently? I only heard about 1 million by the end of summer a couple of days ago. Might have been updated since.

Yeah, he was on radio over the weekend. I'd like to hope he's right in his claim but it'll probably all depend on the speed of rollout and supplies.

is_that_so

Piece on how the US plan to roll it out. Apart from the obvious, all a bit vague!

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will issue guidance on Tuesday to states, which will then choose which residents get jabs first. The panel is expected to prioritise the elderly and healthcare workers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55149138

Meanwhile, it seems the French are also looking at early in the New Year.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1201/1181698-france-covid-vacination/

gw80

Gael23 wrote: »

They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine

And don't forget, BAM will want another couple of hundred million euros,

St.Spodo

There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.

braychelsea

St.Spodo wrote: »

There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.

I'd imagine the majority of deaths under that age group are from the vulnerable population as well. Both these groups together are around 1 million people and account for 98+% of the deaths, meaning by March we could pretty much extinguish the death rate.

brisan

463 people vaccinated every 15 mins ,12 hrs a day for 6 months would vaccinate
4 million people
If it needs 2 doses then that’s 926 doses every 15 mins
So 1000 medically trained people or 2000 to allow for shift working
It can be done if the will is there but I doubt the HSE has the ability

Russman

St.Spodo wrote: »

There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.

It’s also the hospitalisations though, maybe even more so than the deaths in a way. If a lot of hospitalisations are coming from the younger, less vulnerable, population, we still need a lot of them vaccinated to avert too much pressure on the health system.

brisan

brisan wrote: »

463 people vaccinated every 15 mins ,12 hrs a day for 6 months would vaccinate
4 million people
If it needs 2 doses then that’s 926 doses every 15 mins
So 1000 medically trained people or 2000 to allow for shift working
It can be done if the will is there but I doubt the HSE has the ability

For Pfizer and Moderna, it might need special centres/teams to get it done. Astra Zeneca can be done via pharmacies and GPs, like the flu jab.

polesheep

Russman wrote: »

It’s also the hospitalisations though, maybe even more so than the deaths in a way. If a lot of hospitalisations are coming from the younger, less vulnerable, population, we still need a lot of them vaccinated to avert too much pressure on the health system.

With vaccines coming this is as good as over. By Spring the vulnerable will have been vaccinated and that includes those who currently end up in hospital. I and most people I know have had enough now. Once the vaccines start to roll out anyone promoting restrictions or even anything Covid will get short shrift.

Gael23

Have they set a bar of 70% uptake to lift restrictions?

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Have they set a bar of 70% uptake to lift restrictions?

No

jackofalltrades

St.Spodo wrote: »

There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.

There's no point in having mass vaccinations if a large amount of people catch the virus before they are vaccinated.
That's what's going to happen if you have a substantial easing of restrictions.
You'll also be putting the more vulnerable groups at risk because we won't have reached herd immunity.

I'm all for getting back to normal, but too many people have the attitude of once we get the over-65s done, then that's it job done.
But that really isn't the case.

ShineOn7

I'll try this again as, generally speaking, there's some clever people in this thread (compared to other threads in this subforum):


Let's say I'm vaccinated by April (hopefully with the Pfizer one), what then?

How long till it "kicks in"?

How safe am I to then travel and generally socialize/date more versus now?

Loads of variants at play I know. But these are the things we will weigh up



Anyone?

Cheers

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'll try this again as, generally speaking, there's some clever people in this thread (compared to other threads in this subforum):


Let's say I'm vaccinated by April (hopefully with the Pfizer one), what then?

How long till it "kicks in"?

How safe am I to then travel and generally socialize/date more versus now?

Loads of variants at play I know. But these are the things we will weigh up



Anyone?

Cheers

Even with the full/full AZ/Oxford one you should be grand at 14 days after your 2nd dose. Just stay away from nursing homes if infection prevalence is high in the community.

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

Even with the full/full AZ/Oxford one you'll be grand at 14 days after your 2nd dose. Just stay away from nursing homes if infection prevalence is high in the community.

Glad it was one of the two main contributors to this thread who replied (the other being Hmmm)



Thanks

St.Spodo

jackofalltrades wrote: »

There's no point in having mass vaccinations if a large amount of people catch the virus before they are vaccinated.
That's what's going to happen if you have a substantial easing of restrictions.
You'll also be putting the more vulnerable groups at risk because we won't have reached herd immunity.

I'm all for getting back to normal, but too many people have the attitude of once we get the over-65s done, then that's it job done.
But that really isn't the case.

By substantial easing of restrictions, I mean, perhaps, a baseline of level 3 restrictions and level 2 in certain areas. I certainly don't want to see the virus run rampant through the less vulnerable among us either.

Deeper Blue

Can't remember who it was but I was listening to an analyst the other day and she said the following.

Hypothetically speaking if all vulnerable people had been immune to covid in March, would there have even been a need for a lockdown or significant restrictions? Probably not. This will be the scenario in 4-6 months time.

Thought it was a decent way of looking at things.

jackofalltrades

St.Spodo wrote: »

By substantial easing of restrictions, I mean, perhaps, a baseline of level 3 restrictions and level 2 in certain areas. I certainly don't want to see the virus run rampant through the less vulnerable among us either.

Oh, ok.
I'd agree with you on getting back to Level 2/3 if the numbers stayed down.
I thought you were suggesting getting rid of masks or social distancing.

polesheep

El Sueño wrote: »

Can't remember who it was but I was listening to an analyst the other day and she said the following.

Hypothetically speaking if all vulnerable people had been immune to covid in March, would there have even been a need for a lockdown or significant restrictions? Probably not. This will be the scenario in 4-6 months time.

Thought it was a decent way of looking at things.

Spot on.

Sheep2020

Hmmzis wrote: »

Even with the full/full AZ/Oxford one you'll be grand at 14 days after your 2nd dose. Just stay away from nursing homes if infection prevalence is high in the community.

How can you know this with such certainty?

How can any of the vaccine producers know this?

None of the trialists were followed around or monitored so closely for you to be so specific

By the way, why are you giving medical advice?

Charter I read a few days ago said no medical advice

Your not a doctor

Sheep2020

El Sueño wrote: »

Can't remember who it was but I was listening to an analyst the other day and she said the following.

Hypothetically speaking if all vulnerable people had been immune to covid in March, would there have even been a need for a lockdown or significant restrictions? Probably not. This will be the scenario in 4-6 months time.

Thought it was a decent way of looking at things.

It's true alright, we probably wouldn't have

What about the 10% that the vaccine won't work for?

Whats the plan for them?

Sheep2020

Sheep2020 wrote: »

It's true alright, we probably wouldn't have

What about the 10% that the vaccine won't work for?

Whats the plan for them?

Their chances of catching Covid will be low and they have a tiny chance of dying anyways.

They’ll likely remain unaware that the vaccine didn’t work for them.

Not sure if it has been mentioned already but Johnson & Johnson have submitted their vaccine for rolling review with the various regulatory authorities.

timsey tiger

Sheep2020 wrote: »

How can you know this with such certainty?

How can any of the vaccine producers know this?

None of the trialists were followed around or monitored so closely for you to be so specific

By the way, why are you giving medical advice?

Charter I read a few days ago said no medical advice

Your not a doctor

How do you know this, considering that AZ said that they did?

"Participants will be followed for two years after their second vaccination. They will be asked to provide blood and nasopharyngeal samples at their initial visit and will be asked to provide blood samples periodically for the duration of the trial. Scientists will examine the blood samples in the laboratory to measure and characterize immune responses."

Sheep2020

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Their chances of catching Covid will be low and they have a tiny chance of dying anyways.

They’ll likely remain unaware that the vaccine didn’t work for them.

The vulnerable nursing home residents?

Thought CFR for them was high, like 10-20%

Sheep2020

timsey tiger wrote: »

How do you know this, considering that AZ said that they did?

What did AZ, Pfizer, Moderna say?

timsey tiger

Sheep2020 wrote: »

What did AZ, Pfizer, Moderna say?

Do your own googling and stop spreading misinformation lying.

Guardian reporting UK regulator to license Pfizer BioNTech within days.

Hmmzis

Sheep2020 wrote: »

How can you know this with such certainty?

How can any of the vaccine producers know this?

None of the trialists were followed around or monitored so closely for you to be so specific

By the way, why are you giving medical advice?

Charter I read a few days ago said no medical advice

Your not a doctor

Modified the wording there to be compliant with site rules, thanks for pointing that out.

The results so far have been good to spectacular from the vaccine trials. The trials have been conducted to all the regulations and standards and then some (nobody asked Oxford to do weekly nasal swabs, they did it anyway). No serious adverse events have been noted against any of the vaccines.
Contrary to what you're saying, trial participants are monitored very closely (the trial diaries are very detailed).

Will Oxford be approved in Europe 2020?

Pasteur.

Hmmzis wrote: »

Even with the full/full AZ/Oxford one you should be grand at 14 days after your 2nd dose. Just stay away from nursing homes if infection prevalence is high in the community.

Is there any purpose to wearing a mask after this time

Sheep2020

timsey tiger wrote: »

Do your own googling and stop spreading misinformation lying.

You shouldn't reply to stuff you dont understand

I was replying to hmmsis post about immunity from initial dose to 2nd dose

Where he said to a poster you'll be grand 14 days after 2nd dose

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Will Oxford be approved in Europe 2020?

It meets the efficacy requirement, so in theory it's just a matter of the safety data holding up. Confused by the dosing though. I think a little common sense might need to be applied and for them to allow the half dose full dose regimen to be the go to.

Gael23

jackofalltrades wrote: »

There's no point in having mass vaccinations if a large amount of people catch the virus before they are vaccinated.
That's what's going to happen if you have a substantial easing of restrictions.
You'll also be putting the more vulnerable groups at risk because we won't have reached herd immunity.

I'm all for getting back to normal, but too many people have the attitude of once we get the over-65s done, then that's it job done.
But that really isn't the case.

So why has to happen before we can start living again then?

Hmmzis

Deleted User wrote: »

Will Oxford be approved in Europe 2020?

They need to finish the trial befor they can apply for the EU version of a EUA. I think they were hoping to get the required number of infections around mid December.

Sheep2020

Hmmzis wrote: »

Modified the wording there to be compliant with site rules, thanks for pointing that out.

The results so far have been good to spectacular from the vaccine trials. The trials have been conducted to all the regulations and standards and then some (nobody asked Oxford to do weekly nasal swabs, they did it anyway). No serious adverse eventa have been noted against any of the vaccines.
Contrary to what you're saying, trial participants are monitored very closely (the trial diaries are very detailed).

I didn't mean to cause offence, good you changed the wording, it was stange to see it asserted.

I've read most of that as well, all very positive, your kind of going on a tangent though, not answering the question of initial dose to 2nd dose immunity

How do they know sterilising immunity from day 1 to day 40?, 1st dose, 2nd dose, 14 day post

They never deliberately infected anyone

Do they know trialists came in contact with the virus from.day 1 to.40?