COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

TheCitizen

Irish Stones wrote: »

It's clear that some countries will have their entire population vaccinated within weeks, other will take months or years.
How will a normal behaviour, like travelling, be widely adopted across the continent? There will be countries that are still distributing the vaccine early 2022, when others have finished by this summer.
Will travel ban be still in place until all countries reach the same level of vaccination?

It's clear? Where are you getting this "it's clear" from?

Gael23

If the EMA say no or require further checks which slow it down there will be civil unrest across Europe

Irish Stones

El Sueño wrote: »

I assume there'll be no travel ban for those that have a vaccine certificate.

OK, but some countries might not be safe, and I don't think there will be a vaccine certificate.

Irish Stones

TheCitizen wrote: »

It's clear? Where are you getting this "it's clear" from?

From simple maths?
There are countries with a population of 50 to 80 millions people. At the rate of 150k-200k vaccines per day, to be repeated a month later, it takes months, over a year, for sure.

is_that_so

El Sueño wrote: »

I assume there'll be no travel ban for those that have a vaccine certificate.

The EU are not likely to support this. It's massively discriminatory, especially if vaccine rollouts take till the end of the next year. More and better testing is the way to go.

ceegee

Irish Stones wrote: »

It's clear that some countries will have their entire population vaccinated within weeks, other will take months or years.
How will a normal behaviour, like travelling, be widely adopted across the continent? There will be countries that are still distributing the vaccine early 2022, when others have finished by this summer.
Will travel ban be still in place until all countries reach the same level of vaccination?

What countries will have their entire population vaccinated within weeks?
I haven't seen any country claiming this.

ShineOn7

Micky 32 wrote: »

Aye, to think we had the experts on here with the “ There won’t be a vaccine” a few weeks back

I was one saying since April

"the vaccine is the biggest carrot on a stick the world has ever seen"

And

"Treatments will beat this long before a vaccine"

I'm going to type a sentence no regular poster on here has uttered in 8 months

Ready?








..........








.............




...................



I was wrong!



(And in this instance I'm delighted I am)

Beasty

Threads merged

CIARAN_BOYLE

Irish Stones wrote: »

From simple maths?
There are countries with a population of 50 to 80 millions people. At the rate of 150k-200k vaccines per day, to be repeated a month later, it takes months, over a year, for sure.

Italy will be vaccinating more people per day than Ireland for example. Both countries will be getting their vaccines through the EU purchase agreement on a per capita basis.

brisan

is_that_so wrote: »

There may be less of a problem of distribution than people imagine because of the limited initial supplies of vaccines. They will be going to individuals in very clearly defined environments which the HSE have a lot of control over.

The HSE will know who to give it to and in what order and priority and what group should get what vaccine ,that can be done by looking at better prepared countries lists of priorities and copying them
its the actual logistics of getting the vaccine and the people to administer it to be in close proximity to those receiving the vaccine that worries me
Surely by now GPs unions should have been contacted (they have not ),large sites should have been reserved for 6 months ,army contacted for logistics and manpower support
They messed up the contact tracing and testing at the start and this is a much bigger task
250K (for double dose ) a week will have to be vaccinated if a six month target is to be achieved

Sheep2020

Hurrache wrote: »

Any country in the EU can do what the UK done, the UK in fact done it under EU legislation.
It's not done by a vote from each county, they do it on behalf of all countries within the EU.

We should be doing similar, I imagine the Spanish and French won't wait around

Irish Stones

ceegee wrote: »

What countries will have their entire population vaccinated within weeks?
I haven't seen any country claiming this.

I thought I had understood that Ireland might have most of the population covered in a few months, for instance.
I might have misunderstood, though.
Anyway I think that smaller states, like Luxembourg with a population of 600k people, will be covered in a couple of weeks.

ShineOn7

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's impossible to say as it's only been tested on 44,000 people it's not until it's rolled out in the millions were going to have concrete data to make that assumption.
They were upfront about the deaths expected per year from the luas when it was being built, they have a figure on the estimates for compensation if it was to occur, I don't see why that can't be public knowledge seen as it's public money that's backing it up.

I'm starting to see you as a parody account at this stage

On one of the best days of this terrible year you're comparing a vaccine rollout to the risk of getting killed by the Luas


The mind boggles

is_that_so

brisan wrote: »

The HSE will know who to give it to and in what order and priority and what group should get what vaccine ,that can be done by looking at better prepared countries lists of priorities and copying them
its the actual logistics of getting the vaccine and the people to administer it to be in close proximity to those receiving the vaccine that worries me
Surely by now GPs unions should have been contacted (they have not ),large sites should have been reserved for 6 months ,army contacted for logistics and manpower support
They messed up the contact tracing and testing at the start and this is a much bigger task
250K (for double dose ) a week will have to be vaccinated if a six month target is to be achieved

They already have a regime of regular testing in healthcare and nursing homes so that should not prove to be a massive challenge. Outside of that I'm expecting them to roll it out to defined groups in order. The real issue will be when they get to the numbers of the general population.

TheCitizen

Irish Stones wrote: »

From simple maths?
There are countries with a population of 50 to 80 millions people. At the rate of 150k-200k vaccines per day, to be repeated a month later, it takes months, over a year, for sure.

An advantage in being a smaller country perhaps

funnydoggy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I was one saying since April

"the vaccine is the biggest carrot on a stick the world has ever seen"

And

"Treatments will beat this long before a vaccine"

I'm going to type a sentence no regular poster on here has uttered in 8 months

Ready?








..........








.............




...................



I was wrong!



(And in this instance I'm delighted I am)

I like you :cool:

ShineOn7

funnydoggy wrote: »

I like you :cool:

ASL?



It's been a very dry 8 months

TheCitizen

Sheep2020 wrote: »

We should be doing similar, I imagine the Spanish and French won't wait around

There's no one waiting around. You seem determined to find fault with this. Donnelly was on the radio there said it'd be only about a week in the difference and then it's down to how it's distributed.

is_that_so

Irish Stones wrote: »

I thought I had understood that Ireland might have most of the population covered in a few months, for instance.
I might have misunderstood, though.
Anyway I think that smaller states, like Luxembourg with a population of 600k people, will be covered in a couple of weeks.

It's proportional distribution and Luxembourg is 0.1% of the EU, Germany is 16.6% and we are 0.9% so in that. So out of every 1m doses Luxembourg would get 1,000 and we'd get 9,000 and the Germans about 160K.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics

Irish Stones

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italy will be vaccinating more people per day than Ireland for example. Both countries will be getting their vaccines through the EU purchase agreement on a per capita basis.

Let's take Italy, since you mentioned it.


The roll out will start end of January (about a month later than others), with a plan of giving the vaccine through 300 centres across the country. Each centre will be able to give up to 1,000 vaccines a day, but I'd say more likely 500 to 700 per day.
This is 150k-210k per day across the country.
Now, say that Feb 1st they will begin, by the end of the month they have served about 6 millions, the same people that in March will have to be given the second shot, so March will be copy-and-paste of February, no further vaccinations, no progress.

So, I think that in two months we have done 1/10 of the population.
In order to give the vaccine to at least 75% of the population it will take 14-16 months, and we're in May 2022 with about 25% of the population still to go.
And all of this if nothing goes wrong, which I strongly doubt.

lawrencesummers

There are very few or no voices in fact in the mainstream playing a devils advocate role about the vaccine.

I have some questions that I haven’t been able to answer anywhere, and until I do get them answered satisfactorily I won’t be taking any vaccine.

What % of population coverage is being sought for taking the vaccine?

Are children (outside of those with existing conditions) expected or advised to take this vaccine? (If so then what is the justification because the effects of Covid in children doesn’t justify it)


How long does the vaccine work for?


Can vaccines be mixed? If you get the Pfizer one this year can you get a different one next year if needs be?

Is a vaccine required for travel?

Is the vaccine proven to be safe for people with existing condition such as food allergies or other medial conditions?

Are manufacturing companies liable for any issues or has the talk of indemnity been guaranteed?

Irish Stones

is_that_so wrote: »

It's proportional distribution and Luxembourg is 0.1% of the EU, Germany is 16.6% and we are 0.9% so in that. So out of every 1m doses Luxembourg would get 1,000 and we'd get 9,000 and the Germans about 160K.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics

I've read that Italy have signed contracts for 202 million doses in 2021, which I wonder why, it's over three times the number of people in the country...
If others have done the same, there's no proportional distribution.

Cluedo Monopoly

Another positive of Brexit, the Brits will test the vaccine for us.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

If I was the EMA and getting political pressure I'd be more likely to delay than speed things up - in fact it'd be a great opportunity for them to put out a press release saying they are not going to listen to politicians. Getting it out a week earlier will be irrelevant in two months time when they are accused of rushing approval and skipping parts of their safety review.

BTW my understanding is any European country can choose to skip the EMA.

I'd agree with all that. I do think they should keep schtum though rather than criticise the haste of the UK. Reiterate their position about being thorough and focus on making sure every check will be done, highlight the quality of their own work. But stay out of what the UK have done.

It was within their rights and the MHRA and the UK have played a huge part in the EMA over the years. EU bodies are terrible at correcting the perception that they are overbearing and riddled with red tape and sometimes lack a bit of self awareness.

ceegee

Irish Stones wrote: »

I thought I had understood that Ireland might have most of the population covered in a few months, for instance.
I might have misunderstood, though.
Anyway I think that smaller states, like Luxembourg with a population of 600k people, will be covered in a couple of weeks.

Luxembourg will get the same amount of doses per person as every other EU country.

For every 10 vials that Ireland gets, Italy will get 100, Luxembourg will get 1. (Rough approximation of population)
It should balance out that everyone takes roughly the same time

Irish Stones

ceegee wrote: »

For every 10 vials that Ireland gets, Italy will get 100, Luxembourg will get 1.

As I wrote above, Italy has signed contracts for 202 millions vials.

ceegee

Irish Stones wrote: »

As I wrote above, Italy has signed contracts for 202 millions vials.

They haven't. They are part of the EU procurement

is_that_so

Irish Stones wrote: »

I've read that Italy have signed contracts for 202 million doses in 2021, which I wonder why, it's over three times the number of people in the country...
If others have done the same, there's no proportional distribution.

Well the EU now have deals for about 2bn vaccines so that's proportional.

EDIT

Joint action at EU level is the surest, quickest and most efficient way of achieving these objectives. ...


All Member States have endorsed the approach set out by the Vaccines Strategy and signed up to an agreement for its implementation.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_1662

CIARAN_BOYLE

Irish Stones wrote: »

I've read that Italy have signed contracts for 202 million doses in 2021, which I wonder why, it's over three times the number of people in the country...
If others have done the same, there's no proportional distribution.

202 million doses is italys share of the european order I believe.

As to why so many doses. It's really only 101 million doses because vaccines require 2 doses.

Also the eu bought from a number of suppliers in case one or more fail to get approval.

That 202 does might be 50 million pfizer, 50 million oxford, 50 million Moderna and 52 million other.

Hmmzis

Jansen/J&J have started rolling reviews with EMA and Health Canada for their single dose vaccine candidate:

https://www.janssen.com/emea/sites/www_janssen_com_emea/files/jj_announces_initiation_of_rolling_submission_for_its_single_dose_janssen_covid19_vaccine_candidate_with_the_ema.pdf

https://www.janssen.com/canada/sites/www_janssen_com_canada/files/johnson_and_johnson_announces_initiation_of_rolling_submission.pdf

Since this is the single dose trial they're submitting for the readout might come in quicker than for the front running trio.

Sconsey

lawrencesummers wrote: »

There are very few or no voices in fact in the mainstream playing a devils advocate role about the vaccine.

I have some questions that I haven’t been able to answer anywhere, and until I do get them answered satisfactorily I won’t be taking any vaccine.

What % of population coverage is being sought for taking the vaccine?

Are children (outside of those with existing conditions) expected or advised to take this vaccine? (If so then what is the justification because the effects of Covid in children doesn’t justify it)


How long does the vaccine work for?


Can vaccines be mixed? If you get the Pfizer one this year can you get a different one next year if needs be?

Is a vaccine required for travel?

Is the vaccine proven to be safe for people with existing condition such as food allergies or other medial conditions?

Are manufacturing companies liable for any issues or has the talk of indemnity been guaranteed?

Let me try to answer the some....
What % of population coverage is being sought for taking the vaccine?
- Dunno, the figure of 70% is the one that always comes up in terms of herd immunity. I'd say we will be aiming for at least 70%

Are children (outside of those with existing conditions) expected or advised to take this vaccine?
- As of now the answer is no, this will likely change in the next 12 months.

How long does the vaccine work for?
- We don't know, we can only monitor the volounteers from the pahse 1, 2, and 3 trials to determine this. I have a feeling it will vary a little from person to person. But that is no reason to avoid getting vaccinated.

Can vaccines be mixed? If you get the Pfizer one this year can you get a different one next year if needs be?
- Don't know, I remember reading something on this a while back but can't remember. It's a good question though. My gut feeling would say you can take different vaccines but there certainly has not been any testing of this scenario.

Is a vaccine required for travel?
- Today no. In the future this may change. Probably some states will require it but not all.

Is the vaccine proven to be safe for people with existing condition such as food allergies or other medial conditions?
- The early trials are used to detect allergic reactions, does not look like any have been detected. Medical conditions probably depend on if the condition comprimises a persons immunity system. If your immune system is healthy then the vaccine should be safe (I am not a doctor).

Are manufacturing companies liable for any issues or has the talk of indemnity been guaranteed?
- Dunno

stephenjmcd

Irish Stones wrote: »

I've read that Italy have signed contracts for 202 million doses in 2021, which I wonder why, it's over three times the number of people in the country...
If others have done the same, there's no proportional distribution.

The EU have more doses bought than population, each country signs into that. Hence Italy having more doses than population. Ireland also has more than population

Sheep2020

Irish Stones wrote: »

It's clear that some countries will have their entire population vaccinated within weeks, other will take months or years.
How will a normal behaviour, like travelling, be widely adopted across the continent? There will be countries that are still distributing the vaccine early 2022, when others have finished by this summer.
Will travel ban be still in place until all countries reach the same level of vaccination?

On that I'm curious what China's plans are? The source of the virus.

UK and EU countries are aiming for early/mid 2021/spring for whole population

Haven't heard much on China's plan, they've had the vaccine for a while now and have about 1 million out of it's 1,400 million population done

Anyone know the plan for China? When are the gonna have everyone done?

You'd think they'd show us how it's done.

Irish Stones

ceegee wrote: »

They haven't. They are part of the EU procurement

I'm afraid they (we) have
https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/12/01/arcuri-pronto-piano-vaccini-operativo-per-fine-gennaio-_5de86a96-0a3d-4933-9658-0bee9619c720.html

ShineOn7

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The EU have more doses bought than population, each country signs into that. Hence Italy having more doses than population. Ireland also has more than population

What is Ireland's breakdown of the different brands of it so far?

I'm hoping Pfizer get more out worldwide as it really looks to be the best to me

Irish Stones

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

202 million doses is italys share of the european order I believe.

As to why so many doses. It's really only 101 million doses because vaccines require 2 doses.

Yes, it requires two doses, that's why we are wondering what the remaining 40 millions are for...
Because we know our politicians, we can only think the worst, like something will fail and they do know it will, or that there's something that they are not telling us.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'm afraid they (we) have
https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/12/01/arcuri-pronto-piano-vaccini-operativo-per-fine-gennaio-_5de86a96-0a3d-4933-9658-0bee9619c720.html

I'm afraid my Italian is poor.

My google translate tells me that italy is getting 202 million which is their share of the eu purchase. Not their own government buying separately.

is_that_so

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'm afraid they (we) have
https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/12/01/arcuri-pronto-piano-vaccini-operativo-per-fine-gennaio-_5de86a96-0a3d-4933-9658-0bee9619c720.html

That just states they believe that many doses will be available, there's no reference to buying directly from the manufacturers.

stephenjmcd

Irish Stones wrote: »

I'm afraid they (we) have
https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/12/01/arcuri-pronto-piano-vaccini-operativo-per-fine-gennaio-_5de86a96-0a3d-4933-9658-0bee9619c720.html

They haven't. Thats Italy agreeing into the EU supply on a population basis.

Ireland is also signing off these deals as they happen. Its the same deal Ireland is in.

Nothing to do with the country buying their own stock

Gael23

Are we any closer to knowing if vaccines interrupt transmission or not.

Sheep2020

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What is Ireland's breakdown of the different brands of it so far?

I'm hoping Pfizer get more out worldwide as it really looks to be the best to me

How so?

No one got badly sick from Covid with Oxford one, someone got severly sick in Pfizer trial

stephenjmcd

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What is Ireland's breakdown of the different brands of it so far?

I'm hoping Pfizer get more out worldwide as it really looks to be the best to me

Saw it recently so will try and dig it up. Either way between all the deals agreed so far we've more than enough to cover the population.

Irish Stones

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I'm afraid my Italian is poor.

No problem, I'm here to help

My google translate tells me that italy is getting 202 million which is their share of the eu purchase. Not their own government buying separately.

Which is higher than what it was initially said, and much higher than our needs, I think.

stephenjmcd

Irish Stones wrote: »

No problem, I'm here to help



Which is higher than what it was initially said, and much higher than our needs, I think.

Again, the EU have more doses agreed by contract than population. Hence countries allocations are higher than their populations.

Its the EU deal, you get your proportion out of the total which for everyone will be higher given theres more doses bought than people in Europe.

ShineOn7

An excellent summary from the BBC. All of this is worth a read https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55145696

And the main diagram from it

Irish Stones

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The EU have more doses bought than population, each country signs into that. Hence Italy having more doses than population. Ireland also has more than population

Alright!
I was thinking they were doing tricks, you know, we're Italians after all

stephenjmcd

Irish Stones wrote: »

Alright!
I was thinking they were doing tricks, you know, we're Italians after all

From the EU supply then once countries have sufficient quantities the option is there to redirect further supply to less wealthy nations

brisan

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The EU have more doses bought than population, each country signs into that. Hence Italy having more doses than population. Ireland also has more than population

When could we be realistically expected to have 6 million of the double vaccines ?

is_that_so

Update on the likely EMA decision

"By Dec 29 at the latest but maybe before."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1202/1181870-coronavirus-vaccine-ireland/

If it's positive the EU Commission will sign off on it within days and we're off!

ShineOn7

is_that_so wrote: »

Update on the likely EMA decision

"By Dec 29 at the latest but maybe before."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1202/1181870-coronavirus-vaccine-ireland/

If it's positive the EU Commission will sign off on it within days and we're off!

Great stuff but try get your news from the Irish Times or elsewhere

By 6pm RTE will twist this into "Pfizer vaccine found to make all your limbs fall off and set you on fire"