COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

brisan

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Today starts the biggest medical trial in world history.

In what will be billed as a political success story in photocalls by politicians all over there is little to no consideration given to the possible (Yes possible, hopefully there are none) issues from this Vaccine.

It’s remarkable that less than 12 months on from the ‘official’ discovery of the virus on these shores scientists have discovered, and pharmaceutical companies have produced in huge quantities the vaccine. Hats off to you.

While many are happy to cling to the headlines from the manufacturers of 90+ effectiveness there are large gaps in the data regarding testing.

The regulators have approved this (correctly) under emergency status or outside of their typical process because no safety data exists outside of a maximin of 6 months from use.

We don’t know a number of things about this vaccine, and the information on these things will only come out during the next while as they have not been covered in the trials

Is it safe for pregnant women, or those trying to get pregnant?
Is it safe for children?
Is there any other medicine that it cannot be taken with?
Do any existing medical conditions mean it cannot be taken?
How long does the vaccine provide immunity for.

It has not been tested on pregnant women or children
Very few vaccines will be tested on pregnant women initially for obvious reasons

brisan

hmmm wrote: »

Some US news. Long story short, Pfizer didn't accept money as part of "Operation Warp Speed" to avoid any hint of political interference (wise move).

The US as a consequence only bought 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine (for 50 million people).

Pfizer pops up with 95% effectiveness and the US panics and tries to buy more. Pfizer tell them that they can't have more until June/July 2021 as they have agreeements signed with other countries. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/

Trump as a consequence is planning on signing an executive order that would force US companies to prioritise vaccinating Americans before other countries. There's a lot of speculation as to how far this will go - is it just a fig leaf, or would he actually try and seize supplies.

Pfizer quite wisely set up vaccine manufacturing in Belgium as well as the US - but what happens if they are told this vaccine has to be flown back to the US, breaking the contracts it has with other countries? I'd be quite happy myself for the Belgians to park their tanks (if they have tanks) on the runway to seize this supply on behalf of the EU.

The Americans have form for this with regards to PPE in China if my memory serves me right

brisan

Indestructable wrote: »

Does anybody know how the UK are tracking who has received the vaccine? Is it linked to their PPS equivalent or a register or something else? Will they call back the patient on the 21st day for the 2nd jab? Did a bit of googling but couldn't find much.

That logistical challenge is where I fear the HSE may fall short.

Momentous day and can't help feeling a bit jealous looking across the border but we will get there shortly.

That has been my worry all along
They have admitted that their IT systems are not fit for purpose (different regions have different systems that cannot communicate with each other ) and are currently being upgraded
The HSE hopefully do not see this as a long term project and run it as such
I was glad to see the Army being involved
They might bring a proper chain of command ,on the spot decision making and logistical support .plus no 9-5 mentality

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

Some US news. Long story short, Pfizer didn't accept money as part of "Operation Warp Speed" to avoid any hint of political interference (wise move).

The US as a consequence only bought 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine (for 50 million people).

Pfizer pops up with 95% effectiveness and the US panics and tries to buy more. Pfizer tell them that they can't have more until June/July 2021 as they have agreements signed with other countries. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/

Trump as a consequence is planning on signing an executive order that would force US companies to prioritise vaccinating Americans before other countries. There's a lot of speculation as to how far this will go - is it just a fig leaf, or would he actually try and seize supplies.

Pfizer quite wisely set up vaccine manufacturing in Belgium as well as the US - but what happens if they are told this vaccine has to be flown back to the US, breaking the contracts it has with other countries? I'd be quite happy myself for the Belgians to park their tanks (if they have tanks) on the runway to seize this supply on behalf of the EU.

The good news in that WAPO article is the possible January trial reporting dates from both J&J and AstraZeneca.

Speaking of the latter -

The Oxford AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has efficacy of 90% in a small group who got a half-dose first, but only 62% in the majority, full trial data newly published in the Lancet has confirmed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-has-70-efficacy-full-trial-data-shows

Sky King

Not much talk about the Moderna vaccine lately, though my understanding was that it was to be approved around the same time as the Pfeizer one?

AZ can't be too far behind either - january?

brisan

Russman wrote: »

I can see every cnut and his mother trying to get into the 6th category - "Key Workers (to be further refined)"

I wish they'd give an estimate for the time they think it will take each group to be vaccinated though. I know there's still no vaccine approved and supply is hard to predict just now, but I'd love to know how long they think each category might take or how many people might be in each category. 15 categories - does that mean 15 months ? 12 months ? 6 months ?

Still, great to think there's some sort of an end in sight, even if its still some time away.

Germany France and Austria I think ,have all said they hope to have the vast majority of those over 18 who wish to be vaccinated ,vaccinated before the end of June
I would hope we would follow the same timelines
There is nothing stopping us doing it except the supply of vaccines
Money ,manpower and the ability to achieve this should not be a problem
The will to do so by NPHET and the HSE may be an issue
The present Government will fall or remain on the success or failure of this rollout

brisan

schmoo2k wrote: »

brisan wrote: »

I don't understand this comment?

Surely you jest
Bill and Melinda Gates views on the the worlds ever increasing population and how to solve the perceived problems are well documented
They have even set up charitable foundations to further their ideals

namloc1980

What's with the bizarrely worded and leading poll question at the top?

brisan

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah it's the least logical aspect of this, "key workers" could be huge numbers too.

I assume the HSE were involved so

Kerry25x

namloc1980 wrote: »

What's with the bizarrely worded and leading poll question at the top?

This thread was started back in March when a vaccine was still a long way off.

brisan

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

If it takes 15 months to rollout it will be a new Government announcing the end of the rollout

is_that_so

VonLuck wrote: »

Does anyone know when/if full details of the rollout will be announced? I'm thinking a programme of time periods for vaccinating the various groups followed by stepping down of levels.

Just plucking figures out of the air, but could be something like:

February 2021 - 150,000 vaccinated - elimination of Levels 4 & 5.

April 2021 - 750,000 vaccinated - elimination of Level 3.

June 2021 - 1,500,000 vaccinated - elimination of Level 2.

etc.

Would be nice to know what they're working towards.

Donnelly has claimed we'll have 1m vaccinated by March, so based on that, a final date for September would not be too far off. As for levels, beyond some new hybrid Level 5 in January, Level 3 would seem to be the aim. I'd be surprised to see Level 2 beyond April and vaccination rates should see relative normality next summer.

namloc1980

Kerry25x wrote: »

This thread was started back in March when a vaccine was still a long way off.

It mentions a rushed September vaccine on the question so not sure about that.

brisan

Gael23 wrote: »

Hopefully a private market opens up because I’m not waiting that long. I’m being told to isolate but that low on the priority list

How long do they expect to take for each category?

I doubt very much a legal private market will open up for at least 2-3 years ,and rightfully so

namloc1980

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

Different numbers of people fall into the different groups. So doubt it'll be on a month by month basis.

ElTel

Martina1991 wrote: »

The pilot program of using antigen testing in Liverpool had very poor results. These antigen tests will miss a large proportion of cases.


https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1335646455894257667?s=20

The testee is taking their own sample and not wearing gloves whilst a HCW (presumably) observes!
Isn't there a nasal sample taken as well?
Did the testing program rely on a single test?

is_that_so

namloc1980 wrote: »

It mentions a rushed September vaccine on the question so not sure about that.

There was talk, mostly in the UK, of a September vaccine.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

Ours shows a recognition of the question of initially limited vaccine supplies. More categories means more management of that. The UK are "game changing" again and want to do it quickly.

Except that we haven't detailed approximate numbers in each group so we have no idea how far initial supply will go. UK have detailed approx numbers in each of their groups (for example they know their total pfizer supply alone would be enough to get down to all over 60s, health workers and anyone over 18 with a medical condition that makes them high risk).

brisan

is_that_so wrote: »

El Pais article , in English and with graphics, making the case for the use of antigen tests.




https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-12-08/isolate-fast-and-curtail-infection-how-antigen-tests-are-changing-the-face-of-the-pandemic.html

Tony says no and his worrymeter is rising

titan18

brisan wrote: »

Germany France and Austria I think ,have all said they hope to have the vast majority of those over 18 who wish to be vaccinated ,vaccinated before the end of June
I would hope we would follow the same timelines
There is nothing stopping us doing it except the supply of vaccines
Money ,manpower and the ability to achieve this should not be a problem
The will to do so by NPHET and the HSE may be an issue
The present Government will fall or remain on the success or failure of this rollout

Did you wake up not living in Ireland today? Odds are we'll fcuk up somewhere

is_that_so

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

Well the first 2 groups will be done very fast, within a couple of weeks at most, and category 3 will also be looking for the shot from the off. As category 4 are also in healthcare arena they'll also be done quickly. That's probably your first month and we'll have to wait and see the distribution plan on Friday to see the rest of it. At most it should be 9 months.

brisan

Deleted User wrote: »

Category 6 key workers specifically calls out "Providing services essential to the vaccination programme". 10 inclusde "orkers in the food supply system, public and commercial transport and other vital services".

In my view people in category 10 will be broadly similar to those groups permitted to travel for work in Lockdown 1

We make chocolate and were allowed to work during lockdown 1
Age ranges from 18 -63 with some or none medical conditions
We cant all be included in key workers

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Except that we haven't detailed approximate numbers in each group so we have no idea how far initial supply will go. UK have detailed approx numbers in each of their groups (for example they know their total pfizer supply alone would be enough to get down to all over 60s, health workers and anyone over 18 with a medical condition that makes them high risk).

Most of our categories are not that big until you get to the large demographic definitions and that's in the census or available from the CSO. The UK numbers really depend on the Oxford vaccine. If that's delayed their numbers are pie in the sky.

brisan

marno21 wrote: »

I'd be confident that AstraZeneca, Novavax and J&J will be on the table by the end of Q1 2021 at the absolute latest. Should that be the case, with a large swathe of the vulnerable vaccinated and there being a glut of vaccine by then, especially useful if J&J is a single dose vaccine for logistical reasons, it should be game, set & match by Q2 2021.

There will be speed bumps and set backs along the way, but the progress of the vaccination effort to date has been breathtaking. Most experts would have dismissed the timeline I've provided above as the stuff of fairytales just a few months ago.

Other European countries have this timeframe
No reason if the rollout is done in a professional and logistical manner

hmmm

The UK is going to trial one shot of the Oxford vaccine, and one of the mRNA vaccines (and whatever you are having yourself).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/covid-mixed-vaccine-trial-likely-to-begin-in-uk-next-month

"The concept is known as a heterologous prime-boost. “It means mix and matching vaccines,” said Bingham. “So you do a prime with one vaccine and then the second – whether it’s 28 days or two months or whatever the agreed periods would be – would be with a different vaccine.”"

namloc1980

hmmm wrote: »

The UK is going to trial one shot of the Oxford vaccine, and one of the mRNA vaccines (and whatever you are having yourself).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/covid-mixed-vaccine-trial-likely-to-begin-in-uk-next-month

"The concept is known as a heterologous prime-boost. “It means mix and matching vaccines,” said Bingham. “So you do a prime with one vaccine and then the second – whether it’s 28 days or two months or whatever the agreed periods would be – would be with a different vaccine.”"

Not sure I've ever heard of mixed vaccines. Odd approach.

Hmmzis

Hmmzis wrote: »

Someone posted this in the Reddit thread on the FDA briefing documents (about the Pfizer/BNT vaccine):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eot7UV5W8AIas8N?format=png&name=900x900

That is one impressive vaccine, the infection curve gets crushed after about 10-14 after the 1st dose

I noticed too that 70% of participants were overweight or obese. One of the early concerns was that the vaccine might be less effective in the those groups. That seems to be put to rest.

Sconsey

is_that_so wrote: »

Donnelly has claimed we'll have 1m vaccinated by March, so based on that, a final date for September would not be too far off. As for levels, beyond some new hybrid Level 5 in January, Level 3 would seem to be the aim. I'd be surprised to see Level 2 beyond April and vaccination rates should see relative normality next summer.

My rough calculations...

637,000 over 65 years of age (2016 census)
47,000 frontline at risk HCW (CSO HCW at risk of Covid)
163,000 other HCW? based of a figure of 210,000 total from HSA in 2006
? key workers...let's say 50,000

Gives us 897,000. Lets say a million after a big fudge of key workers

So if Stephen Donnelly is correct (a huge 'if'), the at-risk under 65's can expect to start getting vaccinated sometime in April. Still a good few more months of isolation for a lot of people.

is_that_so

Sconsey wrote: »

My rough calculations...

637,000 over 65 years of age (2016 census)
47,000 frontline at risk HCW (CSO HCW at risk of Covid)
163,000 other HCW? based of a figure of 210,000 total from HSA in 2006
? key workers...let's say 50,000

Gives us 897,000. Lets say a million after a big fudge of key workers

So if Stephen Donnelly is correct (a huge 'if'), the at-risk under 65's can expect to start getting vaccinated sometime in April. Still a good few more months of isolation for a lot of people.

As things stand that's what it could look like, but we will potentially have Oxford and maybe J&J available by then. That would boost supplies in a big way. January is going to be as you were and I don't think we'll see that many changes until March and beyond anyway.

Micky 32

Good auld RTE :

“”Does the vaccine mean a return to normal life?””

“”Since there is no evidence that the immunisation prevents transmission of the virus - and no vaccine is 100% effective - scientists are calling for continued vigilance, including mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing.””

"As with all vaccines, it may work really great in certain patient subsets, but not as well in others ... Does that mean you are free to hop on a plane or have 30 people over at your house? Probably not," said Dr Michelle Barron, senior medical director for infection prevention at Colorado's UC Health.“”

I’m done.....

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Oxford/Astra Zeneca data is out.
https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620326611.pdf

Based on editor review they've done some more analysis on the low dose/standard dose regime (including making sure the age groups were aligned vs placebo), and the 90% still stands. Two standard doses about 60%.

This is going to take a while to chew through, but overall it looks fine. The confidence intervals are huge though. The LD/SD group had a statistically significant reduction in asymptomatic infections with a point estimate just below 60%, this is excellent news and puts the "won't reduce spread" argument to the dustbin. Since the mRNA vaccines also work from within the cell, I would think they might be seeing similar or better results in this regard. The recent study on correlates of protection showed that CD8+ cells are good and important against SARS-cov-2.

leahyl

Micky 32 wrote: »

Good auld RTE :

“”Does the vaccine mean a return to normal life?””

“”Since there is no evidence that the immunisation prevents transmission of the virus - and no vaccine is 100% effective - scientists are calling for continued vigilance, including mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing.””

"As with all vaccines, it may work really great in certain patient subsets, but not as well in others ... Does that mean you are free to hop on a plane or have 30 people over at your house? Probably not," said Dr Michelle Barron, senior medical director for infection prevention at Colorado's UC Health.“”

I’m done.....

I’m just sick of all this - what is the actual point of any vaccine then if we still have to wear masks and social distance?

Hmmzis

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not sure I've ever heard of mixed vaccines. Odd approach.

It's been done before with live attenuated and inactivated vaccines against polio with excellent results. Other research has been done on HIV with various mixes of vaccine types, there is a point to be made for intra-cellular vaccines priming and protein vaccines boosting. The intra-cellular one gives your immune system all the tools necessary, including adapted killer cells (CD8+) while protein + adjuvant is second to none at making your body producing immense amounts of antibodies (google for "heterologous prime boost vaccination").

namloc1980

Micky 32 wrote: »

Good auld RTE :

“”Does the vaccine mean a return to normal life?””

“”Since there is no evidence that the immunisation prevents transmission of the virus - and no vaccine is 100% effective - scientists are calling for continued vigilance, including mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing.””

"As with all vaccines, it may work really great in certain patient subsets, but not as well in others ... Does that mean you are free to hop on a plane or have 30 people over at your house? Probably not," said Dr Michelle Barron, senior medical director for infection prevention at Colorado's UC Health.“”

I’m done.....

If there's wide take up of vaccine, people will lose the plot if they still have to wear masks and have to live under restrictions long term.

is_that_so

Micky 32 wrote: »

Good auld RTE :

“”Does the vaccine mean a return to normal life?””

“”Since there is no evidence that the immunisation prevents transmission of the virus - and no vaccine is 100% effective - scientists are calling for continued vigilance, including mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing.””

"As with all vaccines, it may work really great in certain patient subsets, but not as well in others ... Does that mean you are free to hop on a plane or have 30 people over at your house? Probably not," said Dr Michelle Barron, senior medical director for infection prevention at Colorado's UC Health.“”

I’m done.....

You left out the last, almost hopeful line

She said vaccination campaigns are unlikely to reach "a critical mass" until next spring or early summer.

Micky 32

is_that_so wrote: »

You left out the last, almost hopeful line

But the first paragraph , because vaccines aren’t “ 100 %” we’d have to carry on with social distancing etc etc.

brisan

titan18 wrote: »

Did you wake up not living in Ireland today? Odds are we'll fcuk up somewhere

Oh I fully agree we will Fcuk up somewhere
What I am saying there should be no reason to
From day 1 we knew the only way out of this was a vaccine
Yet it was only in late NOV that a committee was set up to set up a rollout plan
its like someone woke up one day and realized
Oh Fcuk we actually have to plan this sh1t
FFG will rise or fall on the success or failure of this vaccine
This is one of the most critical things we as a state have done since our foundation
From a social ,economic and health perspective nothing has come close
Their should be full transparency and full accountability and anyone who messes up should be sacked immediately

is_that_so

Micky 32 wrote: »

But the first paragraph , because vaccines aren’t “ 100 %” we’d have to carry on with social distancing etc etc.

Yep, but she's American and it's not like they've dealt very well with this so it's a warning of sorts! TBH I've come to realise that the opinions of some doctors need to be avoided completely as their views of life would have us all living in bubbles for the rest of our lives.

Martina1991

ElTel wrote: »

The testee is taking their own sample and not wearing gloves whilst a HCW (presumably) observes!
Isn't there a nasal sample taken as well?
Did the testing program rely on a single test?

I believe it was one swab, first in the throat and then up the nose. I dont know if they were all self swabbed.
There was parallel testing with PCR along with the antigen test.

dominatinMC

Micky 32 wrote: »

Good auld RTE :

“”Does the vaccine mean a return to normal life?””

“”Since there is no evidence that the immunisation prevents transmission of the virus - and no vaccine is 100% effective - scientists are calling for continued vigilance, including mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing.””

"As with all vaccines, it may work really great in certain patient subsets, but not as well in others ... Does that mean you are free to hop on a plane or have 30 people over at your house? Probably not," said Dr Michelle Barron, senior medical director for infection prevention at Colorado's UC Health.“”

I’m done.....

I think quotes such as these have been addressed previously, and it was generally acknowledged that the restrictions being referred to by these experts will remain whilst the vaccines are being rolled out. Once herd immunity is reached, restrictions should be lifted and normality will resume. But that will take time.

Storm 10

Should the vaccine comments be in the vaccine section and not here

Marhay70

There'll be more people ending up in mental institutions if they keep asking unanswerable questions and expecting to get a straight answer.
As the inimitable Donald Rumsfeld used to put it, when it comes to these vaccines;
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. Can't put it any plainer than that.

Deeper Blue

Even if there's no sterilizing immunity from any of the vaccines, if the vulnerable are vaccinated they won't get sick

Therefore they won't end up in hospital and die

If there's nobody in hospital or dying from covid, why the feck would we need any restrictions?

If there had been hardly any deaths in March would there have been a lockdown? Not a fecking chance.

firemansam4

I've been critical of some of RTE's negative reporting in the past but we have to be realistic that unfortunately masks and social distancing are probably still going to be with us for a long time, maybe we'll past next summer.

I would hope going by our vaccine rollout plans that by the time the summer is here we could be down to level 1 or 2 type restrictions. I think many of us would be happy enough with that if it eventually leads to us getting rid of all restrictions at some point after that.

snotboogie

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've been critical of some of RTE's negative reporting in the past but we have to be realistic that unfortunately masks and social distancing are probably still going to be with us for a long time, maybe we'll past next summer.

I would hope going by our vaccine rollout plans that by the time the summer is here we could be down to level 1 or 2 type restrictions. I think many of us would be happy enough with that if it eventually leads to us getting rid of all restrictions at some point after that.

I'd agree but the article doesn't clearly spell that out. It instead insinuates that social distancing is going to be with us in the medium to long term in spite of a successful vaccine. RTE are horrendous for this vague negative reporting. I was listening to Tomas Ryan on The Stand podcast recently and he gives a very pessimistic outlook of November 2021 before we can do away with social distancing but he gives clear reasons why he thinks this and gives tangible short term predictions. In other words he makes an actual argument, which is something that can be engaged with. RTE seem obsessed with vague insinuations of long terms restrictions with extremely weak arguments that don't in any way explain their core rationale.

timsey tiger

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've been critical of some of RTE's negative reporting in the past but we have to be realistic that unfortunately masks and social distancing are probably still going to be with us for a long time, maybe we'll past next summer.

I would hope going by our vaccine rollout plans that by the time the summer is here we could be down to level 1 or 2 type restrictions. I think many of us would be happy enough with that if it eventually leads to us getting rid of all restrictions at some point after that.

I'd say up until about next summer at the latest with the risk level really dropping off and by September, we'll be back to normal. W

boggerman1

snotboogie wrote: »

I'd agree but the article doesn't clearly spell that out. It instead insinuates that social distancing is going to be with us in the medium to long term in spite of a successful vaccine. RTE are horrendous for this vague negative reporting. I was listening to Tomas Ryan on The Stand podcast recently and he gives a very pessimistic outlook of November 2021 before we can do away with social distancing but he gives clear reasons why he thinks this and gives tangible short term predictions. In other words he makes an actual argument, which is something that can be engaged with. RTE seem obsessed with vague insinuations of long terms restrictions with extremely weak arguments that don't in any way explain their core rationale.

Tomas Ryan has predicted absolute nonsense and is in the same league as Samuel mcdonkey for the constant poor mouth stick

Ted_YNWA

Leave the modding to the mods, report any suspect/trolling posts & don't engage.

Posts deleted.

donegal_man

A year seems to be about the general timescale for anything like a return to normal among medical people. I think it'll take a while before people are comfortable going into any situation where they're too close together.

Goldengirl

El Sueño wrote: »

Even if there's no sterilizing immunity from any of the vaccines, if the vulnerable are vaccinated they won't get sick

Therefore they won't end up in hospital and die

If there's nobody in hospital or dying from covid, why the feck would we need any restrictions?

If there had been hardly any deaths in March would there have been a lockdown? Not a fecking chance.

Because not every vulnerable person will be able to take the vaccine , young and old , immunocompromised, pregnant and breastfeeding women , younger children and teenagers who have not been cleared to have the vaccine yet .
Not to mention the percentage of people that the vaccine just doesn't work for .
Be quite a lot of people liable to contract Covid there if restrictions like social distancing , avoiding large gatherings and mask wearing , abandoned .
Good news is the more vaccines approved probably the quicker the roll out, and the more people who get vaccinated and the closer to herd immunity we get the less likely restrictions will be needed.
Its not a question of vaccinate the old and vulnerable and they will be fine so we can stop restrictions.
It needs buy in from greater than 70% first .