COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Supercell

Will allocation groups one and two be done simultaneously here?, would seem odd not to vaccinate the frontline healthcare workers first or at least alongside the elderly in homes as seems to be the way it's being done pretty much everywhere else?

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1338838730543652864?s=20

stephenjmcd

Some more information on moderna coming from FDA.

"Moderna vaccine also show that after just one dose, the shot appears to reduce the likelihood a person will become infected with the coronavirus by about 63 percent.

Still, it is expected that regulators will require two doses of the vaccine for maximum protection."

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1338838730543652864?s=19

ACitizenErased

The Brits are at it again - they don't know how many people have been vaccinated......
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1338753157476864000?s=20

Hmmzis

Some info from Moderna before their FDA meeting:

https://www.fda.gov/media/144453/download

Their single dose looks in the same ballpark as Pfizer/BNT's (figure 1) and to me it looks like no events in the vaccine group after day 80 from 1st dose.

The tidbit on asymptomatic infections is interesting:

"There were approximately 2/3 fewer swabs that were positive in the vaccine group as
compared to the placebo group at the pre-dose 2 timepoint, suggesting that some asymptomatic
infections start to be prevented after the first dose"

This in addition AZ/Oxford's findings in their UK trial bodes very well for outright sterilizing protection in a large cohort of vaccinees.

Irish Stones

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits are at it again - they don't know how many people have been vaccinated......
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1338753157476864000?s=20

Can't they count?
How is it possible they don't know how many people walked in those centres, how many syringes they have used, how many vials they have opened?

seamus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits are at it again - they don't know how many people have been vaccinated......

I bet they're tracking it in a £10m spreasheet again. And filling it horizontally instead of vertically.

odyssey06

Irish Stones wrote: »

Can't they count?
How is it possible they don't know how many people walked in those centres, how many syringes they have used, how many vials they have opened?

Could it be that different health authorities have this info, but it is not centrally collated in Whitehall?
Given that it is a two dose vaccine, becomes even more important to track it...

Water John

Irish Stones wrote: »

Can't they count?
How is it possible they don't know how many people walked in those centres, how many syringes they have used, how many vials they have opened?

Even if one got the number of boxes taken out of deep freeze. Can't remember the multiplier but think it was 975 doses. This would indicate how many will be vaccinated by Thursday or so.
They would forecasting the number.

tom1ie

Do we know if taking the vaccine and becoming immune stops you from transmitting to those who haven’t received the vaccine yet?

lbj666

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits are at it again - they don't know how many people have been vaccinated......
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1338753157476864000?s=20

Not shocked by this at all, its obvious they werent fully ready for rollout but got going for the camera's anyway.
Wouldnt be shocked if the Germans eventually pass them out even with a 3 week head start.

stephenjmcd

Latest estimates are once approved we will take delivery of first doses a week to 10 days later.

Personally I think EMA moving to 21st isn't going to change much, they'll still need to be shipped over Christmas. Might pull things forward a week or so but nothing major.

seamus

tom1ie wrote: »

Do we know if taking the vaccine and becoming immune stops you from transmitting to those who haven’t received the vaccine yet?

No, and we won't really be sure for months. We won't know for certain unless other kinds of trials are carried out.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Latest estimates are once approved we will take delivery of first doses a week to 10 days later.

Personally I think EMA moving to 21st isn't going to change much, they'll still need to be shipped over Christmas. Might pull things forward a week or so but nothing major.

I don't see why they don't start shipping whatever is ready now, as long as you have the freezers no reason not to have it in the country ready to go.

Russman

Hmmzis wrote: »

This in addition AZ/Oxford's findings in their UK trial bodes very well for outright sterilizing protection in a large cohort of vaccinees.

This could be the best news of all

tom1ie

seamus wrote: »

No, and we won't really be sure for months. We won't know for certain unless other kinds of trials are carried out.

Would it not make sense to see the status of this first before rolling out a vaccine?

CIARAN_BOYLE

tom1ie wrote: »

Would it not make sense to see the status of this first before rolling out a vaccine?

They decided that the prevention of symptomatic infection was sufficient so all the vaccines aimed their trials at that.

It protects the person being vaccinated. We dont know if the vaccine protects society.

Cork2021

Good article from the team at oxford

https://twitter.com/jennerinstitute/status/1338844710220120065?s=21

lbj666

tom1ie wrote: »

Would it not make sense to see the status of this first before rolling out a vaccine?

Theres no point holding off vaccinating the vulnerable to find out, protection from the disease is far more critical to them than them preventing transmission.

We will have a better idea in a few months, and a call can be made on the general population then.

By todays news from Moderna and Oxford studies, its likely the 3 on the table at the minute are going to make a very good dent into transmission.

ixoy

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

They decided that the prevention of symptomatic infection was sufficient so all the vaccines aimed their trials at that.

It protects the person being vaccinated. We dont know if the vaccine protects society.

Yep and that's going to be a key point that the HSE will need to get out there as to why, as the program gets underway, we'll still be looking at things like masks, social distancing as we have to assume - until proven otherwise - that everyone can still transmit.

brisan

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Latest estimates are once approved we will take delivery of first doses a week to 10 days later.

Personally I think EMA moving to 21st isn't going to change much, they'll still need to be shipped over Christmas. Might pull things forward a week or so but nothing major.

Surely they can have the vaccines in the country ready to rollout once approval is given
Or is that classed as forward planning

Van.Bosch

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Latest estimates are once approved we will take delivery of first doses a week to 10 days later.

Personally I think EMA moving to 21st isn't going to change much, they'll still need to be shipped over Christmas. Might pull things forward a week or so but nothing major.

True but it will be major for the people who get it a week earlier, it reduces their risk of death a week earlier (a week after the second shot).

I have no problem with the timelines to date but if we start seeing vaccines given in Germany, Greece, Finland etc and still no movement here then that’s the problem.

Hmmzis

seamus wrote: »

No, and we won't really be sure for months. We won't know for certain unless other kinds of trials are carried out.

Not sure about that, there is already decent enough indications that the current vaccines prevent infections outright. Both Oxford and Moderna have some ok-ish data on it already.

stephenjmcd

brisan wrote: »

Surely they can have the vaccines in the country ready to rollout once approval is given
Or is that classed as forward planning

It'll be the same across Europe. It doesn't roll out of the factories until approved.

Some countries in mainland Europe will probably get it a day or two before us purely because of transport.

stephenjmcd

Vaccine strategy and implementation plan published

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/bf337-covid-19-vaccination-strategy-and-implementation-plan/

Note this is a living document

seamus

brisan wrote: »

Surely they can have the vaccines in the country ready to rollout once approval is given
Or is that classed as forward planning

I expect there is considerable red tape around pre-stocking a vaccine in advance of approval.

If we're expecting a week between approval and distribution, is there really much to be gained in having it sitting in our warehouses anyway? It can be here in less than a day.

eigrod

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1338835896674766848?s=21

It's a pity Moderna's manufacturing capacity is a little limited. There's an argument at this point that any working vaccine should be licensed to anyone with the capacity to manufacture it, surely compensating the creator wouldn't be an issue.

marno21

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Vaccine strategy and implementation plan published

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/bf337-covid-19-vaccination-strategy-and-implementation-plan/

Note this is a living document

I feel a lot more optimistic reading this; it seems the Civil Service are tuned in here and know what has to be done unlike the disjointed blasé stuff we’ve been hearing from politicians and in the media recently.

schmoo2k

Irish Stones wrote: »

The statement from the health minister is from yesterday, he said "if a sufficient number of voluntary vaccinations isn't reached, we're thinking of making it mandatory"
This statement had been spoken out before, and then back tracked, and stated again. So, it is possible that they will do what they are saying.

The other statement a few days ago was that it should be mandatory for health workers.

Where is that quote from, I tried to google:

No results found for "if a sufficient number of voluntary vaccinations isn't reached, we're thinking of making it mandatory"

Bursanc

Seems like they're looking at the end of the first half of the year for mass vaccination (around June I suppose). Though this could be even sooner if vaccine supplies ramp up before then

tom1ie

ixoy wrote: »

Yep and that's going to be a key point that the HSE will need to get out there as to why, as the program gets underway, we'll still be looking at things like masks, social distancing as we have to assume - until proven otherwise - that everyone can still transmit.

tbh i think this is being lost on people.
The amount of people who have wrote things like, "when i get my vaccine i can throw away my mask" is quite alarming tbh.
People aren't understanding how this is supposed to work.

marno21

Bursanc wrote: »

Seems like they're looking at the end of the first half of the year for mass vaccination (around June I suppose). Though this could be even sooner if vaccine supplies ramp up before then

Indeed. They have to be cautious here about timelines given that the solid fact is we have 0 approved vaccine candidates at this time.

Realistically, if we enter March with Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, J&J and maybe Novavax we should be able to accelerate those timelines.

Irish Stones

EMA will decide December 21st, latest news.

Now, most countries were going to get ready for the roll out mid-January. Will the 4 weeks in the middle be wasted?

IrishStuff09

It seems there are considerations for vaccination certificates underway, based on that document. Can't see them not being a thing given that there will certainly be countries / situations where you will be required to provide proof of having had a vaccine.


Interesting to see what ends up being implemented.

"The solution must also potentially cater for the production of a vaccine certificate. The design of this certificate and the scope of how it will be delivered (e.g. physically, digitally or both) is currently being progressed with a number of stakeholders, including the EU. " (page 42 of National COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy)


Also included is a good table on Irish allocations of EU stock

Do you think we will have enough?

seamus

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

It seems there are considerations for vaccination certificates underway, based on that document. Can't see them not being a thing given that there will certainly be countries / situations where you will be required to provide proof of having had a vaccine.

Interesting to see what ends up being implemented.

"The solution must also potentially cater for the production of a vaccine certificate. The design of this certificate and the scope of how it will be delivered (e.g. physically, digitally or both) is currently being progressed with a number of stakeholders, including the EU. " (page 42 of National COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy)

Certainly an EU standard certificate seems like the most appropriate thing to do. Just a reference number that can be looked up by relevant bodies (immigration, health authorities) in any EU country, as well as the ability to generate a certificate or passport insert for travelling to other countries.

Irish Stones

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think we will have enough?

I guess all countries have optioned many more doses than they need, just in case something goes wrong. I think 3 times the necessary is the norm.

Irish Stones

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

It seems there are considerations for vaccination certificates underway, based on that document. Can't see them not being a thing given that there will certainly be countries / situations where you will be required to provide proof of having had a vaccine.

If it has to be, I hope it's a certificate that we don't have to carry with us. It must be a digital thing, on a server, where the authorities may access and read.
I don't even have the loyalty cards from supermarkets with me.

hmmm

marno21 wrote: »

I feel a lot more optimistic reading this; it seems the Civil Service are tuned in here and know what has to be done unlike the disjointed blasé stuff we’ve been hearing from politicians and in the media recently.

That IT project in the plan is a big project in my opinion, particularly with all the interlinks they are looking for. I know they are going to try and deliver it in modules, but you can only wish the best to who-ever is trying to deliver this. Particularly as most places are in the middle of code freezes, and you're not going to deliver much over the Christmas period.

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think we will have enough?

Sanofi slipping was a blow.

We have to hope (I think) that 2 out of 3 of the AZ, J&J, and CureVac will deliver on time to get mass vaccinations towards Summer.

I thought also the EU had a deal with Novavax?

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

I thought also the EU had a deal with Novavax?

Still in negotiations apparently.

Scuid Mhór

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

It seems there are considerations for vaccination certificates underway, based on that document. Can't see them not being a thing given that there will certainly be countries / situations where you will be required to provide proof of having had a vaccine.

Brilliant. Quite right. Never thought I'd welcome the advent of a new caste system but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Scuid Mhór

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Brilliant. Quite right. Never thought I'd welcome the advent of a new caste system but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Caste system?

schmoo2k

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Brilliant. Quite right. Never thought I'd welcome the advent of a new caste system but desperate times call for desperate measures.

I assume folks who tested positive will also get a cert?

Scuid Mhór

Deleted User wrote: »

Caste system?

The certificate isn't supposed to be congratulatory. I would guess it is to differentiate between those who have been vaccinated and those who haven't, and will find usage as a means of verification to travel through airports, go to gigs, attend nightclubs, go to sports, and so on. Until the virus is vanquished it makes the most sense to have a vaccination screening system for most events.

Scuid Mhór

schmoo2k wrote: »

I assume folks who tested positive will also get a cert?

Unlikely -- the jury is still out on how long one is immune from the virus for after infection, and there have been myriad studies showing that an individual can become reinfected after a few months since their recovery.

seamus

Hmmzis wrote: »

Not sure about that, there is already decent enough indications that the current vaccines prevent infections outright. Both Oxford and Moderna have some ok-ish data on it already.

Indeed. But we won't really have a good indication on its real world protective effects until we have a few hundred thousand people vaccinated for a couple of months.

That'll bring us from "probably" to "almost definitely".

To get from there to "absolutely certain" will likely require challenge trials. We may never bother with them.

ixoy

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Until the virus is vanquished it makes the most sense to have a vaccination screening system for most events.

Although the people most likely to go to many of these are amongst the last to be vaccinated.. That will cause pushback even though I understand your point.

Irish Stones

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Unlikely -- the jury is still out on how long one is immune from the virus for after infection, and there have been myriad studies showing that an individual can become reinfected after a few months since their recovery.

I know a person who got infected at the very beginning of the outbreak and in their recent serological test they are still "positive for the antibodies". This person is still also a plasma donor.