COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

AdamD

ixoy wrote: »

Although the people most likely to go to many of these are amongst the last to be vaccinated.. That will cause pushback even though I understand your point.

Yeah this is why we're highly unlikely to see any form of domestic 'passport' system. The highly mobile people are the ones at the very bottom of the list for getting the vaccine.

schmoo2k

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The certificate isn't supposed to be congratulatory. I would guess it is to differentiate between those who have been vaccinated and those who haven't, and will find usage as a means of verification to travel through airports, go to gigs, attend nightclubs, go to sports, and so on. Until the virus is vanquished it makes the most sense to have a vaccination screening system for most events.

It won't be needed for any voluntary settings like gigs, sports etc. Some countries may require it for entry and some "high risk" settings like ICU and retirement settings would be my guess.

Take a concert as an example:
1. If your vaccinated happy days.
2. You are not vaccinated but consider yourself a low risk so are happy to go to the gig happy days, but you may need to self isolate should you contract Covid (the same as if you caught it in the shops). Good news your now immune!

The point is that its your personal responsibility once the vaccine is available.
Note: Low risk groups very rarely need hospitalisation (by definition).

Scuid Mhór

Irish Stones wrote: »

I know a person who got infected at the very beginning of the outbreak and in their recent serological test they are still "positive for the antibodies". This person is still also a plasma donor.

Knowing one person doesn't mean anything. You need a much larger sample than that before you can make a call like that.

Scuid Mhór

schmoo2k wrote: »

It won't be needed for any voluntary settings like gigs, sports etc. Some countries may require it for entry and some "high risk" settings like ICU and retirement settings would be my guess.

Take a concert as an example:
1. If your vaccinated happy days.
2. You are not vaccinated but consider yourself a low risk so are happy to go to the gig happy days, but you may need to self isolate should you contract Covid (the same as if you caught it in the shops). Good news your now immune!

The point is that its your personal responsibility once the vaccine is available.
Note: Low risk groups very rarely need hospitalisation (by definition).

Maybe you are right. We will see anyway. Certainly both you and ioxy have made pragmatic points I didn't think of so thanks for that.

schmoo2k

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Unlikely -- the jury is still out on how long one is immune from the virus for after infection, and there have been myriad studies showing that an individual can become reinfected after a few months since their recovery.

1. There is more evidence on how long the natural immunity lasts than there is for the vaccines.
2. The number of reinfections is tiny, even less than Chicken Pox reinfections and we consider that a "get once" disease.

Scuid Mhór

schmoo2k wrote: »

1. There is more evidence on how long the natural immunity lasts than there is for the vaccines.
2. The number of reinfections is tiny, even less than Chicken Pox reinfections and we consider that a "get once" disease.

1. That's a misnomer -- the vaccines have been designed to last as long as they can. Most epidemiologists and virologists seem to be more convicted in the vaccines providing longer protection than natural antibodies arising from prior infection.

2. Based on very limited longitudinal data -- the virus has only been around for a year at most and there hasn't been much opportunity to study its reinfection rates, especially amongst asymptomatic people who may not even have realised they had it the first time. Comparing it to chicken pox is a bit of a misnomer also because we have had a very, very long time to acquire the relevant data on that. There's no way we can say anything definitively right now hence I would assume those who have been infected will still be required to get vaccinated in an ideal world.

seamus

hmmm wrote: »

Particularly as most places are in the middle of code freezes, and you're not going to deliver much over the Christmas period.

Code freezes are only for old-school companies who plan on shutting down over Xmas.

With enough cash incentive there's no reason a dedicated dev team can't work on it all the way through.

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

It won't be needed for any voluntary settings like gigs, sports etc. Some countries may require it for entry and some "high risk" settings like ICU and retirement settings would be my guess.

Take a concert as an example:
1. If your vaccinated happy days.
2. You are not vaccinated but consider yourself a low risk so are happy to go to the gig happy days, but you may need to self isolate should you contract Covid (the same as if you caught it in the shops). Good news your now immune!

The point is that its your personal responsibility once the vaccine is available.
Note: Low risk groups very rarely need hospitalisation (by definition).

with the above example:
you are vaccinated.
you catch covid at the gig
covid has no effect as you are immune from the vaccine but you carry the virus
you return to work in a hospital where you are dealing with people who have low immune systems and cant take the vaccine.

whats the plan for this?

Scuid Mhór

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The certificate isn't supposed to be congratulatory. I would guess it is to differentiate between those who have been vaccinated and those who haven't, and will find usage as a means of verification to travel through airports, go to gigs, attend nightclubs, go to sports, and so on. Until the virus is vanquished it makes the most sense to have a vaccination screening system for most events.

Is nothing new

Irish Stones

schmoo2k wrote: »

2. You are not vaccinated but consider yourself a low risk so are happy to go to the gig happy days, but you may need to self isolate should you contract Covid (the same as if you caught it in the shops). Good news your now immune!

This is what I always believed, but it seems most people do not agree.

Irish Stones

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Knowing one person doesn't mean anything. You need a much larger sample than that before you can make a call like that.

There are lots of people like that, as far as I know, but I only personally know this one.

schmoo2k

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

1. That's a misnomer -- the vaccines have been designed to last as long as they can. Most epidemiologists and virologists seem to be more convicted in the vaccines providing longer protection than natural antibodies arising from prior infection.

2. Based on very limited longitudinal data -- the virus has only been around for a year at most and there hasn't been much opportunity to study its reinfection rates, especially amongst asymptomatic people who may not even have realised they had it the first time. Comparing it to chicken pox is a bit of a misnomer also because we have had a very, very long time to acquire the relevant data on that. There's no way we can say anything definitively right now hence I would assume those who have been infected will still be required to get vaccinated in an ideal world.

1 - I may be wrong but the non mRNA vaccines are based on infecting folks with a "dead" virus to prime the immune system? Your immune system gets primed exactly the same way with the "live" virus (but obviously more dangerous). Also the antibody protection will be shorter lived than the T-Cell immunity, which they are still studying. Misnomer is a bit harsh.

2 - You are correct that there is no way to say anything definitively right now, but we do have 8 to 10 months of re-infection data and the numbers are very low. Even Pfizzer points out that their vaccine may only be good for 1 year, they don't definitively know yet either. But its a good thing that those numbers are low and long may it last!

schmoo2k

seamus wrote: »

Code freezes are only for old-school companies who plan on shutting down over Xmas.

With enough cash incentive there's no reason a dedicated dev team can't work on it all the way through.

No they are for old school customers who insist you don't change your code as they want xmas off! (its a great time for coders, get to do mad things for a while).

Irish Stones

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

1. That's a misnomer -- the vaccines have been designed to last as long as they can. Most epidemiologists and virologists seem to be more convicted in the vaccines providing longer protection than natural antibodies arising from prior infection.

Several viral diseases leave you a natural immunity as long as that give you by the vaccine. So, we don't know if this virus/vaccine is different.

There's no way we can say anything definitively right now hence I would assume those who have been infected will still be required to get vaccinated in an ideal world.

I read an interview where it was stated that those who got the disease won't need the vaccine, at least in the first year(s).

is_that_so

Can't see it mentioned on the thread but Moderna on the cusp of approval in US.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55320467

Hmmzis

schmoo2k wrote: »

1 - I may be wrong but the non mRNA vaccines are based on infecting folks with a "dead" virus to prime the immune system? Your immune system gets primed exactly the same way with the "live" virus (but obviously more dangerous). Also the antibody protection will be shorter lived than the T-Cell immunity, which they are still studying. Misnomer is a bit harsh.

Not quite correct.
The 'dead' virus vaccines are called inactivated whole virus vaccines. They use the whole virion deactivated in formaline and/or beta-propiolactone, that hopefully messes up the proteins only so much as to make it inert but still similar enough to the wild type to be valid as a template for your immune system to learn from. These vaccines do not infect your cells, they physically cannot do that, that's the whole point of inactivation. In order for your immune system to react to this 'dead' virus an adjuvant gets added (alum, ASO3, etc.). It's effectively a protein based vaccine using whole virus particles. These vaccines cannot induce killer cell responses (CD8+), they induce T helper cells though and hopefully the type 1 ones.

Viral vectors, mRNA and live attenuated vaccines do 'infect' your cells. Viral vectors (mostly) and mRNA just do not replicate in them, while live attenuated do replicate to some extent. This induces both T helper cells and killer cells.

All approaches induce antibody production and hopefully germinal centers as well to properly mature the B cells so that they can become long lived plasma cells giving you a constant background of antibodies.

The wild type virus infects your cells proper, replicates a LOT and does a real mess with the inner workings of your cells in the process, inhibiting lots of interferon signaling pathways, suppressing MHC-I etc. This whole messing around with the innate cellular signaling is what's causing the disease and the observed suppressed germinal center activity.

ShineOn7

What time is the official announcement by the "government" regarding the rollout?

All I'm seeing is a soft drop on the Irish Times site with some of the presumed details so far

Is there a Presser about it today?

schmoo2k

Hmmzis wrote: »

Not quite correct.
The 'dead' virus vaccines are called inactivated whole virus vaccines. They use the whole virion deactivated in formaline and/or beta-propiolactone, that hopefully messes up the proteins only so much as to make it inert but still similar enough to the wild type to be valid as a template for your immune system to learn from. These vaccines do not infect your cells, they physically cannot do that, that's the whole point of inactivation. In order for your immune system to react to this 'dead' virus an adjuvant gets added (alum, ASO3, etc.). It's effectively a protein based vaccine using whole virus particles. These vaccines cannot induce killer cell responses (CD8+), they induce T helper cells though and hopefully the type 1 ones.

Viral vectors, mRNA and live attenuated vaccines do 'infect' your cells. Viral vectors (mostly) and mRNA just do not replicate in them, while live attenuated do replicate to some extent. This induces both T helper cells and killer cells.

All approaches induce antibody production and hopefully germinal centers as well to properly mature the B cells so that they can become long lived plasma cells giving you a constant background of antibodies.

The wild type virus infects your cells proper, replicates a LOT and does a real mess with the inner workings of your cells in the process, inhibiting lots of interferon signaling pathways, suppressing MHC-I etc. This whole messing around with the innate cellular signaling is what's causing the disease and the observed suppressed germinal center activity.

Does that mean for the asymptomatic folks the "live" virus should trigger the same immune response as the inactivated one?

ceegee

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What time is the official announcement by the "government" regarding the rollout?

All I'm seeing is a soft drop on the Irish Times site with some of the presumed details so far

Is there a Presser about it today?

Announced a few hours ago. Details are on gov.ie

Hmmzis

schmoo2k wrote: »

Does that mean for the asymptomatic folks the "live" virus should trigger the same immune response as the inactivated one?

Different. Since you're mentioning asymptomatic I'm assuming you're talking about the real deal virus not an attenuated vaccine version.

With the real deal it's a bit of a lottery how good a response you'll get. Even asymptomatic convalescents have wildly varying serological and T cell readings (between excellent and barely anything at all). It all depends on how well your immune system managed to deal with the signaling interruptions.

With a vaccine (of any kind) it's more predictable and vastly safer.

I hope I got the gist of your questions right here.

stephenjmcd

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What time is the official announcement by the "government" regarding the rollout?

All I'm seeing is a soft drop on the Irish Times site with some of the presumed details so far

Is there a Presser about it today?

There was one earlier today

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Can't see it mentioned on the thread but Moderna on the cusp of approval in US.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55320467

I think they got approved. One difference to the Pfizer vaccine is the gap between doses is 4 weeks rather than 3 weeks, and after 6 weeks of first dose you have a strong immune response.

Looks like the Germans have brought huge pressure on the EMA to approve Pfizer for emergency use.

is_that_so

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think they got approved. One difference to the Pfizer vaccine is the gap between doses is 4 weeks rather than 3 weeks, and after 6 weeks of first dose you have a strong immune response.

Looks like the Germans have brought huge pressure on the EMA to approve Pfizer for emergency use.

The EMA have said all along a decision by Dec 29 at the latest but they were hopeful it might be earlier. That all it is. It'll still tie into the EU January start.

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

with the above example:
you are vaccinated.
you catch covid at the gig
covid has no effect as you are immune from the vaccine but you carry the virus
you return to work in a hospital where you are dealing with people who have low immune systems and cant take the vaccine.


whats the plan for this?

Anyone else see this as a potential issue?

Micky 32

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's already been saying in the last few days he expects the country fully open by mid summer

tom1ie wrote: »

Anyone else see this as a potential issue?

It won’t be as big of an issue than if we were put in permanent lockdown and restrictions that you’re promoting to keep indefinately.

The government’s aim is to get back to normal and hopefully by mid summer and rightly so.

Deeper Blue

tom1ie wrote: »

Anyone else see this as a potential issue?

I'd imagine those (hopefully rare) scenarios are something people are going to have to accept.

Dickie10

tom1ie wrote: »

with the above example:
you are vaccinated.
you catch covid at the gig
covid has no effect as you are immune from the vaccine but you carry the virus
you return to work in a hospital where you are dealing with people who have low immune systems and cant take the vaccine.

whats the plan for this?

i would imagine in that case the sick person gets covid and may well die of it, that happens daily in hospitals. very sick people get an infection and that kills them. people die in hospitals its what happens

Van.Bosch

tom1ie wrote: »

with the above example:
you are vaccinated.
you catch covid at the gig
covid has no effect as you are immune from the vaccine but you carry the virus
you return to work in a hospital where you are dealing with people who have low immune systems and cant take the vaccine.

whats the plan for this?

Let’s say there was never any Covid.

You go to the gig, get a bad flu, go to the hospital and give it to a patient.

It’s unfortunate but Covid won’t be the first disease that can be dangerous.

tom1ie

Micky 32 wrote: »

It won’t be as big of an issue than if we were put in permanent lockdown and restrictions that you’re promoting to keep indefinately.

The government’s aim is to get back to normal and hopefully by mid summer and rightly so.

Who is promoting to keep indefinitely? Me?

tom1ie

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd imagine those (hopefully rare) scenarios are something people are going to have to accept.[/quote


I wonder how rare it would actually be though?

tom1ie

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Let’s say there was never any Covid.

You go to the gig, get a bad flu, go to the hospital and give it to a patient.

It’s unfortunate but Covid won’t be the first disease that can be dangerous.

Indeed except for covid is a hell of a lot worse than flu.

tom1ie

My point on all this is while the vaccine is being rolled out the government need to inform the public that restrictions and masks need to kept in place until a short period of time after everyone that can get the vaccine gets the vaccine.
That way we can be sure we have covid pretty much beat.

Van.Bosch

tom1ie wrote: »

Indeed except for covid is a hell of a lot worse than flu.

Yes - agreed, I didn’t mean to come across as one of those “Covid is just fly” people.

tom1ie

My point being the government need to tell people that restrictions and mask wearing etc must stay in place until a short period of time after everyone that can/ will get a vaccine has got a vaccine. That way you can be sure we have pretty much got the virus beat.

schmoo2k

tom1ie wrote: »

with the above example:
you are vaccinated.
you catch covid at the gig
covid has no effect as you are immune from the vaccine but you carry the virus
you return to work in a hospital where you are dealing with people who have low immune systems and cant take the vaccine.

whats the plan for this?

Same thing as if you caught it at the shops I would imagine?

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

Same thing as if you caught it at the shops I would imagine?

Yeah agreed so.......what’s the plan?

ACitizenErased

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah agreed so.......what’s the plan?

Which vaccine are you referring to? Moderna, Pfizer and AZ have been shown to significantly reduce asymptomatic infection. Your scenario is quite unlikely.

tom1ie

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Which vaccine are you referring to? Moderna, Pfizer and AZ have been shown to significantly reduce asymptomatic infection. Your scenario is quite unlikely.

Any of the vaccines.
Ok well this is news to me and anyone I’ve asked so far.
I thought they didn’t know that you couldn’t spread it once you take the vaccine?
My scenario is not unlikely. What if you have a family member with a low immune system under 16?

schmoo2k

tom1ie wrote: »

Any of the vaccines.
Ok well this is news to me and anyone I’ve asked so far.
I thought they didn’t know that you couldn’t spread it once you take the vaccine?
My scenario is not unlikely. What if you have a family member with a low immune system under 16?

They should have thought twice before attending the gig then? In your scenario they could have caught it from the vaccinated person beside them...

ACitizenErased

tom1ie wrote: »

Any of the vaccines.
Ok well this is news to me and anyone I’ve asked so far.
I thought they didn’t know that you couldn’t spread it once you take the vaccine?
My scenario is not unlikely. What if you have a family member with a low immune system under 16?

It is unlikely if a person is vaccinated.
Just from today:
Moderna Inc said data from the late stage trial of its COVID-19 vaccine suggests that it could prevent some asymptomatic infections as soon as the first dose of the shot is given.
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-moderna-asymptomatic/moderna-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-may-prevent-asymptomatic-infection-idUSFWN2IV07D

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

They should have thought twice before attending the gig then? In your scenario they could have caught it from the vaccinated person beside them...

No my point is:
I get the vaccine.
I go to gig.
I get covid but have no effects.
I go home to family member under 16 who has low immune system.
Replace gig with shop/plane/workplace etc etc.

Deeper Blue

tom1ie wrote: »

Any of the vaccines.
Ok well this is news to me and anyone I’ve asked so far.
I thought they didn’t know that you couldn’t spread it once you take the vaccine?
My scenario is not unlikely. What if you have a family member with a low immune system under 16?

As harsh as it sounds, governments aren't going to keep restrictions in place to protect a small minority. Once the vaccines come in those scenarios become unlikely, but obviously not impossible

tom1ie

El Sueño wrote: »

As harsh as it sounds, governments aren't going to keep restrictions in place to protect a small minority. Once the vaccines come in those scenarios become unlikely, but obviously not impossible

But it’s not a small minority.
Kids under 16 can’t get the vaccine. That’s 25% of the population.
How many of them have CF, low immune systems, don’t know they have an issue?
That’s not including people over 16 who have these conditions.
It is very important restrictions are kept in place while and shortly after the vaccine is given out, otherwise all we’ve done is created a **** load of immune carriers who can unknowingly infect the vulnerable who aren’t allowed the vaccine.

Deeper Blue

tom1ie wrote: »

But it’s not a small minority.
Kids under 16 can’t get the vaccine. That’s 25% of the population.
How many of them have CF, low immune systems, don’t know they have an issue?
That’s not including people over 16 who have these conditions.
It is very important restrictions are kept in place while and shortly after the vaccine is given out, otherwise all we’ve done is created a **** load of immune carriers who can unknowingly infect the vulnerable who aren’t allowed the vaccine.

I'd imagine the percentage of kids that would be susceptible to severe covid is extremely low.

I agree restrictions will have to be kept in some form until the vaccine is widely distributed, then I assume they'll be phased out completely

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

It won’t be as big of an issue than if we were put in permanent lockdown and restrictions that you’re promoting to keep indefinately.

Say that people take the vaccine, say that the protection from this vaccine has an unknown duration, 6 months, a year, who knows? Nobody knows.
Because nobody knows, the protection might end any moment, so any moment could be the moment when one is vulnerable to the virus again.
How can we say goodbye to some restriction and PPE's when any of us, at any given moment, could be exposed to and catch the virus again?

The government’s aim is to get back to normal and hopefully by mid summer and rightly so.

I wonder how people can speak of normal when it won't be normal. It will be a different life from what we are living now, but it won't be what we used to know, so, in my opinion, it can't be called normal, it will be just a new kind of life.

Water John

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd imagine the percentage of kids that would be susceptible to severe covid is extremely low.

I agree restrictions will have to be kept in some form until the vaccine is widely distributed, then I assume they'll be phased out completely

Listening to a Czech journalist today. She mentioned how her child had developed heart problems earlier in the year. It was traced to asymptomatic Covid infection. She was now returning to her doctor for a check up and to find out if she will be allowed run again after 6 months.
We really have little idea of its damage.

I presume under 16s and pregnant women will be vaccinated once trials have been conducted. The nasal vaccine being developed in Ireland looks like being particularly suited to young people.

Deeper Blue

Maybe I'm in the minority but I think the outlook is positive from April onwards. The pandemic has only been going on for 9 months and we've gotten so far already in terms of vaccines etc, I really don't see how people think at this stage that we'll never return to normal. That makes very little sense to me.

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

Say that people take the vaccine, say that the protection from this vaccine has an unknown duration, 6 months, a year, who knows? Nobody knows.
Because nobody knows, the protection might end any moment, so any moment could be the moment when one is vulnerable to the virus again.
How can we say goodbye to some restriction and PPE's when any of us, at any given moment, could be exposed to and catch the virus again?




I wonder how people can speak of normal when it won't be normal. It will be a different life from what we are living now, but it won't be what we used to know, so, in my opinion, it can't be called normal, it will be just a new kind of life.

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

ACitizenErased

Irish Stones wrote: »

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

How is that not normal? What part of normal is not normal?