COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

They should have thought twice before attending the gig then? In your scenario they could have caught it from the vaccinated person beside them...

No my point is:
I get the vaccine.
I go to gig.
I get covid but have no effects.
I go home to family member under 16 who has low immune system.
Replace gig with shop/plane/workplace etc etc.

Deeper Blue

tom1ie wrote: »

Any of the vaccines.
Ok well this is news to me and anyone I’ve asked so far.
I thought they didn’t know that you couldn’t spread it once you take the vaccine?
My scenario is not unlikely. What if you have a family member with a low immune system under 16?

As harsh as it sounds, governments aren't going to keep restrictions in place to protect a small minority. Once the vaccines come in those scenarios become unlikely, but obviously not impossible

tom1ie

El Sueño wrote: »

As harsh as it sounds, governments aren't going to keep restrictions in place to protect a small minority. Once the vaccines come in those scenarios become unlikely, but obviously not impossible

But it’s not a small minority.
Kids under 16 can’t get the vaccine. That’s 25% of the population.
How many of them have CF, low immune systems, don’t know they have an issue?
That’s not including people over 16 who have these conditions.
It is very important restrictions are kept in place while and shortly after the vaccine is given out, otherwise all we’ve done is created a **** load of immune carriers who can unknowingly infect the vulnerable who aren’t allowed the vaccine.

Deeper Blue

tom1ie wrote: »

But it’s not a small minority.
Kids under 16 can’t get the vaccine. That’s 25% of the population.
How many of them have CF, low immune systems, don’t know they have an issue?
That’s not including people over 16 who have these conditions.
It is very important restrictions are kept in place while and shortly after the vaccine is given out, otherwise all we’ve done is created a **** load of immune carriers who can unknowingly infect the vulnerable who aren’t allowed the vaccine.

I'd imagine the percentage of kids that would be susceptible to severe covid is extremely low.

I agree restrictions will have to be kept in some form until the vaccine is widely distributed, then I assume they'll be phased out completely

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

It won’t be as big of an issue than if we were put in permanent lockdown and restrictions that you’re promoting to keep indefinately.

Say that people take the vaccine, say that the protection from this vaccine has an unknown duration, 6 months, a year, who knows? Nobody knows.
Because nobody knows, the protection might end any moment, so any moment could be the moment when one is vulnerable to the virus again.
How can we say goodbye to some restriction and PPE's when any of us, at any given moment, could be exposed to and catch the virus again?

The government’s aim is to get back to normal and hopefully by mid summer and rightly so.

I wonder how people can speak of normal when it won't be normal. It will be a different life from what we are living now, but it won't be what we used to know, so, in my opinion, it can't be called normal, it will be just a new kind of life.

Water John

El Sueño wrote: »

I'd imagine the percentage of kids that would be susceptible to severe covid is extremely low.

I agree restrictions will have to be kept in some form until the vaccine is widely distributed, then I assume they'll be phased out completely

Listening to a Czech journalist today. She mentioned how her child had developed heart problems earlier in the year. It was traced to asymptomatic Covid infection. She was now returning to her doctor for a check up and to find out if she will be allowed run again after 6 months.
We really have little idea of its damage.

I presume under 16s and pregnant women will be vaccinated once trials have been conducted. The nasal vaccine being developed in Ireland looks like being particularly suited to young people.

Deeper Blue

Maybe I'm in the minority but I think the outlook is positive from April onwards. The pandemic has only been going on for 9 months and we've gotten so far already in terms of vaccines etc, I really don't see how people think at this stage that we'll never return to normal. That makes very little sense to me.

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

Say that people take the vaccine, say that the protection from this vaccine has an unknown duration, 6 months, a year, who knows? Nobody knows.
Because nobody knows, the protection might end any moment, so any moment could be the moment when one is vulnerable to the virus again.
How can we say goodbye to some restriction and PPE's when any of us, at any given moment, could be exposed to and catch the virus again?




I wonder how people can speak of normal when it won't be normal. It will be a different life from what we are living now, but it won't be what we used to know, so, in my opinion, it can't be called normal, it will be just a new kind of life.

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

Irish Stones

Micky 32 wrote: »

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

ACitizenErased

Irish Stones wrote: »

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

How is that not normal? What part of normal is not normal?

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

Luckily for the most part my day to day life has been pretty normal thanks to the nature of my work. The 2km and 5km limit didn’t apply to me so i get around ( 1000km a week). Also my partner lives in another county but because she lives alone she’s in my “support bubble” so i can travel to her or visa versa.

The things i can’t do is go to the pub but to be honest i haven’t missed it. Maybe go for an hour or so and listen to a band on a Saturday night but that was it. Most things i miss is travelling to the USA a few times a year to visit family or the spur of the moment of driving on to the ferry to Wales for the weekend for a Sunday drive through the Welsh mountains. If the vaccines get back my ability to visit my family etc ( i’m confident it will) for me that is as back to normal as it was before.

dominatinMC

Irish Stones wrote: »

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

Anyway, I was reading an article about the roll out of the vaccine in my country, as presented by the head of the emergency team, and from the thousands comments I have read so far, it seems that only a small part of the young population will voluntarily go and take the vaccine.
I doubt that the uptake of these vaccines will reach the minimum threshold required for the herd immunity. At least over here.

Forgive my cynicism, but where is the "new normal" in what you describe?! Sounds like the status quo to me

Deeper Blue

Irish Stones wrote: »

To me "normal" means that life is the same as before, and actually it won't be, ever again. We'll be able to travel, attend events, see people, shake hands, go to dinner with twenty friends, but it won't be "normal".

What about it won't be normal and can you please provide a source for this claim? Thanks.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

gas stuff really...do you think airlines, concerts, holiday resorts etc can exist at your back to life vaccinated prices?? anywhere?? they exist on low margins anyway based on high yield numbers and max turnaround, you think top comedians will play gigs again for the same price if say 30% don't want a vaccine and are denied entry?

lots will change, tell me once you book your holidays how will the airlines begin to claw the lost revenue back? there's too many moving parts to call the poster a waffler, that's not correct I don't think.

Micky 32

rusty cole wrote: »

gas stuff really...do you think airlines, concerts, holiday resorts etc can exist at your back to life vaccinated prices?? anywhere?? they exist on low margins anyway based on high yield numbers and max turnaround, you think top comedians will play gigs again for the same price if say 30% don't want a vaccine and are denied entry?

lots will change, tell me once you book your holidays how will the airlines begin to claw the lost revenue back? there's too many moving parts to call the poster a waffler, that's not correct I don't think.

Jaysus even more waffle.

Deeper Blue

rusty cole wrote: »

gas stuff really...do you think airlines, concerts, holiday resorts etc can exist at your back to life vaccinated prices?? anywhere?? they exist on low margins anyway based on high yield numbers and max turnaround, you think top comedians will play gigs again for the same price if say 30% don't want a vaccine and are denied entry?

lots will change, tell me once you book your holidays how will the airlines begin to claw the lost revenue back? there's too many moving parts to call the poster a waffler, that's not correct I don't think.

What are "back to life vaccinated prices" and how have you come to the conclusion that they'll be as high as you claim?

dominatinMC

It appears to be the same few (thankfully so) posters on here insisting that life will not return to normal, and instead their holy grail of a "new normal" will prevail. Despite, the general consensus being that normality will resume once herd immunity is reached - hell, even Micheal Martin et al. have been releasing soundbites this week on a return to normality sometime in 2021. Now some things may never be the same - we may see more hand sanitising, better cough etiquette, etc. And if these are the defining characteristics of a "new normal", then bring it on! However, indefinite social distancing will not be part of it. Once herd immunity has been reached, there will be no justification from the government, nor appetite from the general public, for this measure to continue.

polesheep

tom1ie wrote: »

No my point is:
I get the vaccine.
I go to gig.
I get covid but have no effects.
I go home to family member under 16 who has low immune system.
Replace gig with shop/plane/workplace etc etc.

Replace Covid-19 with any other transmissible illness. Immune suppressed people have always had to be careful.

utyh2ikcq9z76b

dominatinMC wrote: »

It appears to be the same few (thankfully so) posters on here insisting that life will not return to normal, and instead their holy grail of a "new normal" will prevail. Despite, the general consensus being that normality will resume once herd immunity is reached - hell, even Micheal Martin et al. have been releasing soundbites this week on a return to normality sometime in 2021. Now some things may never be the same - we may see more hand sanitising, better cough etiquette, etc. And if these are the defining characteristics of a "new normal", then bring it on! However, indefinite social distancing will not be part of it. Once herd immunity has been reached, there will be no justification from the government, nor appetite from the general public, for this measure to continue.

We have 7 years to solve climate change, develop new energy solutions to save the future of humanity. Not gonna happen. It's crisis to crisis from here on out

Micky 32

Kaydence Acidic Marsupial wrote: »

We have 7 years to solve climate change, develop new energy solutions to save the future of humanity. Not gonna happen. It's crisis to crisis from here on out

Jaysus the climate change shyte forum is that way —->>

schmoo2k

tom1ie wrote: »

No my point is:
I get the vaccine.
I go to gig.
I get covid but have no effects.
I go home to family member under 16 who has low immune system.
Replace gig with shop/plane/workplace etc etc.

Even if everyone at the gig was vaccinated you have the same issue? Like previous poster said, families with immune compromised members need to take extra precautions.

But at least the odds of transmitting it start to decrease with the vaccine compared to without and the availability of hospital services won't be an issue.

Sky King

Vaccine availability forecast from Barclays Bank.

Not volumes, just a prediction on what will be approved. Its 7 by mid 2021.

tom1ie

Micky 32 wrote: »

More waffle. I can tell you this. When the population get vaccinated i’ll be living normal again, especially travelling to family full stop.

This is the problem.
Restrictions have to stay in place for a short period of time AFTER everyone who can get a vaccine gets a vaccine.
Otherwise people who can’t get could be in trouble.

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

Even if everyone at the gig was vaccinated you have the same issue? Like previous poster said, families with immune compromised members need to take extra precautions.

But at least the odds of transmitting it start to decrease with the vaccine compared to without and the availability of hospital services won't be an issue.

How do the odds decrease with the vaccine compared to without?
With the vaccine restrictions are lifted.
The virus doesn’t disappear it just means people aren’t infected.
It is still transmitted to people who can’t get the vaccine.
If anything people who can’t get the vaccine are more at risk as restrictions will be gone.

odyssey06

tom1ie wrote: »

This is the problem.
Restrictions have to stay in place for a short period of time AFTER everyone who can get a vaccine gets a vaccine.
Otherwise people who can’t get could be in trouble.

If the vaccine protects against infection and illness, then the vaccinated are blockers to transmission. That should translate to lower cases overall.

If the vaccine protects against illness only, then the vaccinated are potentially silent spreaders. That should translate to higher cases overall, and I would be surprised if public health authorities wouldn't factor that into the lifting of restrictions etc until full rollout cycle has been completed.
I think this is behind the messaging from authorities that the restrictions still needed up to some point in 2021 even with the vaccines.

tom1ie

polesheep wrote: »

Replace Covid-19 with any other transmissible illness. Immune suppressed people have always had to be careful.

No. Because covid 19 is much worse. As is the general consensus at this stage.

Peregrinus

tom1ie wrote: »

How do the odds decrease with the vaccine compared to without?
With the vaccine restrictions are lifted.
The virus doesn’t disappear it just means people aren’t infected.
It is still transmitted to people who can’t get the vaccine.
If anything people who can’t get the vaccine are more at risk as restrictions will be gone.

No, because due to herd immunity they should encounter far fewer people who have the virus, so their chance of becoming infected themselves will be smaller than it is now, not larger.

But we don't get to this point until a sufficient proportion of the population has been vaccinated to let herd immunity do its work. That's between 60% and 70%, I believe. Even with the most successful rollout of the vaccine, we won't get to that point for months and months, and other pandemic restrictions will need to be largely maintained and observed until them.

tom1ie

odyssey06 wrote: »

If the vaccine protects against infection and illness, then the vaccinated are blockers to transmission. That should translate to lower cases overall.

If the vaccine protects against illness only, then the vaccinated are potentially silent spreaders. That should translate to higher cases overall, and I would be surprised if public health authorities wouldn't factor that into the lifting of restrictions etc until full rollout cycle has been completed.
I think this is behind the messaging from authorities that the restrictions still needed up to some point in 2021 even with the vaccines.

Yeah but as seems to be the general consensus people are thinking they are going to burn their masks when they get the vaccine.
So if the vaccine don’t stop spread we will see higher overall cases among the vulnerable when restrictions are lifted.
Sure even ministers are talking about things going back to normal as soon as vaccines are being rolled out instead of the narrative that is even more important to adhere to restrictions when you have received the vaccine for a short period of time to allow the virus to die off due to lack of hosts.
Of course all of this is a mute point if it’s proven that viral spread does not occur when you are vaccinated which could be the case.
We just don’t know at the moment, which we really should before a roll out IMO.

odyssey06

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, because due to herd immunity they should encounter far fewer people who have the virus, so their chance of becoming infected themselves will be smaller than it is now, not larger.

But we don't get to this point until a sufficient proportion of the population has been vaccinated to let herd immunity do its work. That's between 60% and 70%, I believe. Even with the most successful rollout of the vaccine, we won't get to that point for months and months, and other pandemic restrictions will need to be largely maintained and observed until them.

Can you expand on that?
If the vaccine doesn't protect against infection, only illness, how does it contribute to herd immunity?

is_that_so

tom1ie wrote: »

No my point is:
I get the vaccine.
I go to gig.
I get covid but have no effects.
I go home to family member under 16 who has low immune system.
Replace gig with shop/plane/workplace etc etc.

The vast majority of your replacements are very low risk and the contingent nature of all of these elements makes a Lotto win this weekend seem almost guaranteed.
Might this even happen to one person in the whole country?