COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

brisan

marno21 wrote: »

I feel a lot more optimistic reading this; it seems the Civil Service are tuned in here and know what has to be done unlike the disjointed blasé stuff we’ve been hearing from politicians and in the media recently.

A key challenge with the enablement of the process
is that Ireland does not have a national vaccination
ICT system with the required level of functionality

I wonder when they realised this

Peregrinus

odyssey06 wrote: »

Can you expand on that?
If the vaccine doesn't protect against infection, only illness, how does it contribute to herd immunity?

I was replying to Tom, who was discussing a vaccine that protects against infection. I probably should have made that clear.

You're quite right that a vaccine which suppresses the disease but not the transmission of the virus does not create herd immunity. I doubt that this will turn out to be a simple binary, though; It's not likely to be the case that a vaccine either suppresses transmission completely or doesn't suppress it at all; rather that different viruses may be more or less effective at supressing transmission. In which case even after we have implemented a mass vaccination programme we may need to continue anti-infection measures and also to continue the development and testing of new viruses which may be more effective at prefventing transmission than the first ones to be developed and approved.

brisan

Irish Stones wrote: »

If it has to be, I hope it's a certificate that we don't have to carry with us. It must be a digital thing, on a server, where the authorities may access and read.
I don't even have the loyalty cards from supermarkets with me.

Maybe a cert on your phone that can be scanned like a QR code

brisan

hmmm wrote: »

That IT project in the plan is a big project in my opinion, particularly with all the interlinks they are looking for. I know they are going to try and deliver it in modules, but you can only wish the best to who-ever is trying to deliver this. Particularly as most places are in the middle of code freezes, and you're not going to deliver much over the Christmas period.

I wonder when they realized an IT structure was needed
Must have been fairly recently ................oh wait

brisan

schmoo2k wrote: »

I assume folks who tested positive will also get a cert?

Why would you get a Vaccination certificate if you did not get the vaccine ?
The clue is in the name

brisan

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

The certificate isn't supposed to be congratulatory. I would guess it is to differentiate between those who have been vaccinated and those who haven't, and will find usage as a means of verification to travel through airports, go to gigs, attend nightclubs, go to sports, and so on. Until the virus is vanquished it makes the most sense to have a vaccination screening system for most events.

But some people think this is infringing on their rights

brisan

schmoo2k wrote: »

It won't be needed for any voluntary settings like gigs, sports etc. Some countries may require it for entry and some "high risk" settings like ICU and retirement settings would be my guess.

Take a concert as an example:
1. If your vaccinated happy days.
2. You are not vaccinated but consider yourself a low risk so are happy to go to the gig happy days, but you may need to self isolate should you contract Covid (the same as if you caught it in the shops). Good news your now immune!

The point is that its your personal responsibility once the vaccine is available.
Note: Low risk groups very rarely need hospitalisation (by definition).

That's a very definite statement
Have you a link to back that up

is_that_so

brisan wrote: »

But some people think this is infringing on their rights

Receiving it is fine, being asked for it is that rights thing. Like a lot of ideas about this from travel bubbles to proof of vaccination it's all being thrown up into a bit of a vacuum until we see exactly where the vaccines leave us in about 9 months time.

brisan

brisan wrote: »

But some people think this is infringing on their rights

hmmm

brisan wrote: »

But some people think this is infringing on their rights

Who cares about their "rights", they don't care about anyone elses. Everyone for themselves as they would say.

schmoo2k

brisan wrote: »

Why would you get a Vaccination certificate if you did not get the vaccine ?
The clue is in the name

How about renaming it to a "I am immune" cert?

schmoo2k

brisan wrote: »

That's a very definite statement
Have you a link to back that up

Its 100% true today?

tom1ie

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, because due to herd immunity they should encounter far fewer people who have the virus, so their chance of becoming infected themselves will be smaller than it is now, not larger.

But we don't get to this point until a sufficient proportion of the population has been vaccinated to let herd immunity do its work. That's between 60% and 70%, I believe. Even with the most successful rollout of the vaccine, we won't get to that point for months and months, and other pandemic restrictions will need to be largely maintained and observed until them.

Exactly and that’s the issue.
The time it takes to get to herd immunity at 70%.
If vaccinated people can carry the virus and restrictions are lifted, there is a window where the virus can more easily infect those who aren’t vaccinated due to restrictions being lifted.
This is what I’m pointing out.
Restrictions MUST stay in place until herd immunity is reached to protect those that can’t take the vaccine.

brisan

rusty cole wrote: »

gas stuff really...do you think airlines, concerts, holiday resorts etc can exist at your back to life vaccinated prices?? anywhere?? they exist on low margins anyway based on high yield numbers and max turnaround, you think top comedians will play gigs again for the same price if say 30% don't want a vaccine and are denied entry?

lots will change, tell me once you book your holidays how will the airlines begin to claw the lost revenue back? there's too many moving parts to call the poster a waffler, that's not correct I don't think.

Exactly no one knows what will happen
One example
When covid hit and the lockdown happened people said house prices would drop or at best stay steady due to a lack of demand due to unemployment (me included )
What no one foresaw was a rise in demand and prices rising slightly .which happened
Why
people locked down with nothing to spend their money on ,no double mocha choc lattes with a shot of caramel on the way to work ,no 8 euro sandwiches at lunch ,no holidays no weekends away ,no fancy meals etc ,they all saved a lot of money in a short time and got a deposit up and went from renters to buyers fairly quick
We did not know what covid would bring and we do not know the after effects on the world
All we can do is guess

schmoo2k

tom1ie wrote: »

How do the odds decrease with the vaccine compared to without?
With the vaccine restrictions are lifted.
The virus doesn’t disappear it just means people aren’t infected.
It is still transmitted to people who can’t get the vaccine.
If anything people who can’t get the vaccine are more at risk as restrictions will be gone.

1. High risk folks who are unable to take the vaccine will have to be very careful until herd immunity is achieved.
2. Herd immunity will be achieved by a combination of vaccine AND natural immunity
3. As soon as high risk folks have taken the vaccine, restrictions will relax
4. There will likely be a surge in cases at that point (but not a surge on hospital admissions)
5. The surge in 4 will accelerate our path to herd immunity.

So in your scenario the inital surge is short term pain for long term gain. But for the rest of the population its happy days.

Note: The longer we keep restrictions the longer it will take to achieve herd immunity...

brisan

Micky 32 wrote: »

Jaysus even more waffle.

How do you know
Have you an alternative scenario on how things will go ?
Can you back it up
I have a rearranged holiday to the Canaries in July
Checked flights with Ryanair
Already 125 euro dearer than the same dates this year
No one knows ,even you

tom1ie

is_that_so wrote: »

The vast majority of your replacements are very low risk and the contingent nature of all of these elements makes a Lotto win this weekend seem almost guaranteed.
Might this even happen to one person in the whole country?

What? If restrictions are lifted they are not low risk.
If you can spread the virus after being vaccinated and you go into an unrestricted place with other people, guess what happens?

John O.Groats

schmoo2k wrote: »

How about renaming it to a "I am immune" cert?

You think that an "I am immune" certificate could be issued for someone who hasn`t received the vaccine? You have to be taking the piss right?

brisan

dominatinMC wrote: »

It appears to be the same few (thankfully so) posters on here insisting that life will not return to normal, and instead their holy grail of a "new normal" will prevail. Despite, the general consensus being that normality will resume once herd immunity is reached - hell, even Micheal Martin et al. have been releasing soundbites this week on a return to normality sometime in 2021. [B]Now some things may never be the same - we may see more hand sanitising, better cough etiquette, etc. And if these are the defining characteristics of a "new normal"[/B], then bring it on! However, indefinite social distancing will not be part of it. Once herd immunity has been reached, there will be no justification from the government, nor appetite from the general public, for this measure to continue.

You say things will be back to normal i.e the way they were before
Then you say the bit in bold starting with now some things may never be the same and mention a new normal
Do you not see the inconsistencies

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

1. High risk folks who are unable to take the vaccine will have to be very careful until herd immunity is achieved.
2. Herd immunity will be achieved by a combination of vaccine AND natural immunity
3. As soon as high risk folks have taken the vaccine, restrictions will relax
4. There will likely be a surge in cases at that point (but not a surge on hospital admissions)
5. The surge in 4 will accelerate our path to herd immunity.

So in your scenario the inital surge is short term pain for long term gain. But for the rest of the population its happy days.

Note: The longer we keep restrictions the longer it will take to achieve herd immunity...

I believe that was the UK route. They changed that fairly quick.

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

1. High risk folks who are unable to take the vaccine will have to be very careful until herd immunity is achieved.
2. Herd immunity will be achieved by a combination of vaccine AND natural immunity
3. As soon as high risk folks have taken the vaccine, restrictions will relax
4. There will likely be a surge in cases at that point (but not a surge on hospital admissions)
5. The surge in 4 will accelerate our path to herd immunity.

So in your scenario the inital surge is short term pain for long term gain. But for the rest of the population its happy days.

Note: The longer we keep restrictions the longer it will take to achieve herd immunity...

What about high risk folks who can’t take the vaccine?

AdamD

Needing a covid vaccine passport to attend gigs and sporting events in Ireland may be a bit pointless when the people most likely to actually attend those will be the last to be offered the vaccine. Covid may not even be a major issue by the time young people are offered it

Non-domestic stuff, maybe.

dominatinMC

brisan wrote: »

You say things will be back to normal i.e the way they were before
Then you say the bit in bold starting with now some things may never be the same and mention a new normal
Do you not see the inconsistencies

Let's not be pedantic ffs. I think most people accept that "normal" refers to no social distancing, isolating, cocooning, masks, and such extreme measures. No one will give a toss if we're still asked to sanitise hands and observe better cough etiquette.

dominatinMC

tom1ie wrote: »

Exactly and that’s the issue.
The time it takes to get to herd immunity at 70%.
If vaccinated people can carry the virus and restrictions are lifted, there is a window where the virus can more easily infect those who aren’t vaccinated due to restrictions being lifted.
This is what I’m pointing out.
Restrictions MUST stay in place until herd immunity is reached to protect those that can’t take the vaccine.

And I think most posters actually agree with this. However, others seem to be suggesting that social distancing will be here forever - which seems completely at odds with the whole point of a vaccination program to be honest.

schmoo2k

John O.Groats wrote: »

You think that an "I am immune" certificate could be issued for someone who hasn`t received the vaccine? You have to be taking the piss right?

Not taking the piss - Today in Ireland there are more than 23,364 people who are immune - no reason why they shouldn't have an "I am immune" cert.

tom1ie

dominatinMC wrote: »

Let's not be pedantic ffs. I think most people accept that "normal" refers to no social distancing, isolating, cocooning, masks, and such extreme measures. No one will give a toss if we're still asked to sanitise hands and observe better cough etiquette.

if these measures are lifted before we reach herd immunity, and then allow a short break for the virus to die off, then cases among the unvaccinated at risk group will rise.

Hmmzis

tom1ie wrote: »

What about high risk folks who can’t take the vaccine?

For them this virus will be one more entry in an already very long list of pathogens that can be dangerous to them. There really are not that many people who can't take any type of vaccines. Not all vaccines are the same.

BryanMartin21

tom1ie wrote: »

What about high risk folks who can’t take the vaccine?

It's not just covid they are worried about. We can't shut down society for the physically weak can we?

brisan

schmoo2k wrote: »

Its 100% true today?

Of course its true today
Nobody has one
You cannot ask somebody for something that does not exist at that point in time
What about in the future when the majority of people have one
Have you a definitive statement on that ,as it was the future we were talking about ie after the vaccination rollout
I have (nor can I possibly have ) no definitive statement on what may or may not happen in the future

tom1ie

dominatinMC wrote: »

And I think most posters actually agree with this. However, others seem to be suggesting that social distancing will be here forever - which seems completely at odds with the whole point of a vaccination program to be honest.

yeah absolutley.
we need the vaccine.
we also need SD+ masks right up until and (for example) 2 weeks after herd immunity is reached. Its the only way to kill this off.
However the messaging on this is brutal from the government.