COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

is_that_so

ixoy wrote: »

I'd be curious about some insight into the EMA's operations. How much is it studying the data by relevant trained staff vs bureaucracy. The fact they've moved a few dates suggests there's a bit of leeway somewhere (admittedly against intense political pressure).

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/about-us/who-we-are

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

So possibly two vaccines in January! EU has a deal for an initial 80m doses, with an option for up to a further 80m.

EU are a little behind a few countries for initial doses of Moderna. USA, Canada, Japan and Switzerland I think all got orders in first.

RugbyLad11

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Posted about it on here yesterday:


"The Taoiseach said today (yesterday) we’re going to have maybe 2 deliveries before year end, each of which are ~5000 doses. That’s about 10,000 doses give or take.

France announced today (yesterday) they expect 1.2 million doses by year end, the equivalent of us receiving 90,000 doses."

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1339285811947311106?s=20

Seems like we are getting shafted...

ACitizenErased

Given the rising cases I hope to god we go absolutely hell for leather on vaccinating from Dec 27th. Throw absolutely everything at it, go as fast as we possibly can. No time for piss assing about now.

jackboy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Given the rising cases I hope to god we go absolutely hell for leather on vaccinating from Dec 27th. Throw absolutely everything at it, go as fast as we possibly can. No time for piss assing about now.

How will we do this will a tiny number of doses?

ACitizenErased

jackboy wrote: »

How will we do this will a tiny number of doses?

Don't me sayin that to me, go with the flow :D

Van.Bosch

Do we know what production capacity is like for Pfizer? Like have they got the doses for Jan/Feb ready or are they manufactured as needed?

jackboy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Don't me sayin that to me, go with the flow :D

Ok, St Patrick’s day will be great, the streets will be flowing with vomit like the good old days. Go vaccine.

Away With The Fairies

I'm not an anti vaxxer but how does someone not worry about the vaccines? The news about allergies and it's been reported that some participants in the trials got bell's palsy (which I think they recovered from). Then with the Chinese vaccines and some people still got infected after taking the vaccine, what happens if it happens over here. The whole thing is still so new and really not sure about the whole thing. I'm glad I'm down on the list of priority and hopefully by the time my time comes around, there will be more news on the effects.

Away With The Fairies

jackboy wrote: »

Ok, St Patrick’s day will be great, the streets will be flowing with vomit like the good old days. Go vaccine.

Seriously, what kind of timeline are we looking at for vaccinating everyone?

ACitizenErased

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not an anti vaxxer but how does someone not worry about the vaccines? The news about allergies and it's been reported that some participants in the trials got bell's palsy (which I think they recovered from). Then with the Chinese vaccines and some people still got infected after taking the vaccine, what happens if it happens over here. The whole thing is still so new and really not sure about the whole thing. I'm glad I'm down on the list of priority and hopefully by the time my time comes around, there will be more news on the effects.

What allergies? People with allergies can barely take any vaccine, how is that different?

jackboy

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Seriously, what kind of timeline are we looking at for vaccinating everyone?

Six to nine months approximately we are being told.

Hmmzis

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Do we know what production capacity is like for Pfizer? Like have they got the doses for Jan/Feb ready or are they manufactured as needed?

They have said 1.3 billion doses in 2021. I think they are making them and filling them as fast as they can. I don't think they have Jan/Feb doses made yet. The moment approvals come in they start shipping what they have ready, with some provisions for expected near term approvals and other contractual intricacies.

funnydoggy

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not an anti vaxxer but how does someone not worry about the vaccines? The news about allergies and it's been reported that some participants in the trials got bell's palsy (which I think they recovered from). Then with the Chinese vaccines and some people still got infected after taking the vaccine, what happens if it happens over here. The whole thing is still so new and really not sure about the whole thing. I'm glad I'm down on the list of priority and hopefully by the time my time comes around, there will be more news on the effects.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/15/fact-check-bells-palsy-likely-unrelated-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/6532985002/


There are likely many people who have developed shingles, cancer, blindness, etc. since taking the vaccine but it boils down to the amount of people who have taken it, not the vaccine itself

Hmmzis

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not an anti vaxxer but how does someone not worry about the vaccines? The news about allergies and it's been reported that some participants in the trials got bell's palsy (which I think they recovered from). Then with the Chinese vaccines and some people still got infected after taking the vaccine, what happens if it happens over here. The whole thing is still so new and really not sure about the whole thing. I'm glad I'm down on the list of priority and hopefully by the time my time comes around, there will be more news on the effects.

The incidence rate of Bell's palsy was within background incidence rates and it's a condition that mostly resolves itself (in some cases steroids are prescribed). It's mostly suspected to be caused by herpes-like viruses, with diabetes and pregnancy as contributing factors.

The allergy incidence is quite low from the looks of it.The official UK numbers are 3 severe allergies in 140k vaccinations where two of the cases had a history of severe allergies, I don't know any details of the 3rd one. If we take the 3rd one as an unsolicited reaction then if we'd jab every last soul in our country we'd be expecting ~35 such unsolicited events. Some risk perspective will be required by all in the next 6 or so months by us all. In contrast, how many people have died just this week of Covid-19?

Doc07

ixoy wrote: »

I'd be curious about some insight into the EMA's operations. How much is it studying the data by relevant trained staff vs bureaucracy. The fact they've moved a few dates suggests there's a bit of leeway somewhere (admittedly against intense political pressure).

There may be plenty of bureaucracy at the European commission and parliament but EMA is based on scientific analysis and decision making. The dates can move because the companies are given timetables for submission of data and answers to the many Qs regulators ask. If the company can get the data or answers sooner(fair play to them), then in the setting of a pandemic and in the public interest, the regulators can bring the assessments and decisions forward, even if it means working over weekends, nights and holidays.

Away With The Fairies

Hmmzis wrote: »

The incidence rate of Bell's palsy was within background incidence rates and it's a condition that mostly resolves itself (in some cases steroids are prescribed). It's mostly suspected to be caused by herpes-like viruses, with diabetes and pregnancy as contributing factors.

The allergy incidence is quite low from the looks of it.The official UK numbers are 3 severe allergies in 140k vaccinations where two of the cases had a history of severe allergies, I don't know any details of the 3rd one. If we take the 3rd one as an unsolicited reaction then if we'd jab every last soul in our country we'd be expecting ~35 such unsolicited events. Some risk perspective will be required by all in the next 6 or so months by us all. In contrast, how many people have died just this week of Covid-19?

Thanks for your reply, you put my mind at ease. Hopefully we don't get much bad reactions when vaccinations start here.

FDA advisory board have voted to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine. Big step for the US, manufacturing is only in the US at the moment.

Pfizer today released a statement saying they have millions of doses in storage in the US with no instruction from the government as to where to send them... er, send them this way lads.

ACitizenErased

FDA has recommended the authorisation of Moderna vaccine. Expected to be approved tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1339693978489372673?s=20

Meanwhile, in Europe.... :pac:

antiskeptic

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Then with the Chinese vaccines and some people still got infected after taking the vaccine

To be expected perhaps. We are told things like "efficacy of 95%!!" and the like. Now the man in the street would suppose this to mean:

"If I take this 95% efficacy vaccine and if someone with Covid sneezes in my face, I've a 95% chance of not developing Covid"

But that's not the way it works. Nobody can tell you what your chances of catching Covid are with or without a vaccine.

Out of 40,000 people in the trial 20000 vaccinated/20000 placebo, something like 83 went on to develop Covid from the placebo group and 9 from the vaccinated group. Now I don't know much about statistics, but if you happened to have portions of either group residing in a high/low infectious area of the world, then that would skew your results, rendering them statistically insignificant.

For the "man in the street" understanding to be ascertained, you'd have to vaccinate/placebo ... and then sneeze in 40,000 faces and see what the infection rates were. But that'd be ethically difficult.


This guy explains it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRYZGWDp5Ag


I gather that, for "ethical reasons" the placebo group have since been vaccinated. There goes any chance of a long term study into side effects. As with mobile phone signals, the long term study is going to be us.

antiskeptic

Hmmzis wrote: »

Some risk perspective will be required by all in the next 6 or so months by us all. In contrast, how many people have died just this week of Covid-19?

Which raises the question.

Once the vaccination is rolled out and herd immunity is established, can we go back to people dying of old age again?

Doc07

antiskeptic wrote: »

I gather that, for "ethical reasons" the placebo group have since been vaccinated. There goes any chance of a long term study into side effects. As with mobile phone signals, the long term study is going to be us.

Most of the vaccine group and placebo group will be followed for 2years and hardly any of the placebo group havee since been vaccinated. Some may request or even be offered vaccine and leave the study but many thousand could continue so long term study is still very much a part of Moderna and the Pfizer vaccine.

hmmm

Now I don't know much about statistics, but if you happened to have portions of either group residing in a high/low infectious area of the world, then that would skew your results, rendering them statistically insignificant.

The placebo and vaccinated groups are picked from the same populations.

This guy explains it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRYZGWDp5Ag

That video is 7 minutes of telling us something that is obvious to anyone who isn't an idiot. Of course the figures being reported are the difference between the two groups (vaccinated and placebo group), it's not how likely you are to get Covid.

antiskeptic

hmmm wrote: »

The placebo and vaccinated groups are picked from the same populations.

That much I understand. Now, tossing a coin is picking from the same population .. to the point of being a perfectly neutral pick. Now, if you tossed a coin 40,000 times and you repeated that exercise 100 times, what would be the range in results obtained. You wouldn't get 20,000/20,000 x 100 times in any case.

Could the range exceed having 83-9 more heads than harps?

That video is 7 minutes of telling us something that is obvious to anyone who isn't an idiot. Of course the figures being reported are the difference between the two groups (vaccinated and placebo group), it's not how likely you are to get Covid.

He started out by telling us, him pro vaccine and with a Ph.D that his undersanding of efficacy was the man on the streets understanding. He's hardly an idiot.

It might help inform someone if they knew that there was no figure given for their chances of getting the vaccine. Or their chances of contributing to herd immunity.

Say the vaccine improved your chances by 10%. A person weighing risk could decide not to take the vaccine at 10% improvement in personal chances. But if it was 95% improvement then they'd figure it was worth a punt.

schmoo2k

antiskeptic wrote: »

To be expected perhaps. We are told things like "efficacy of 95%!!" and the like. Now the man in the street would suppose this to mean:

"If I take this 95% efficacy vaccine and if someone with Covid sneezes in my face, I've a 95% chance of not developing Covid"

But that's not the way it works. Nobody can tell you what your chances of catching Covid are with or without a vaccine.

Out of 40,000 people in the trial 20000 vaccinated/20000 placebo, something like 83 went on to develop Covid from the placebo group and 9 from the vaccinated group. Now I don't know much about statistics, but if you happened to have portions of either group residing in a high/low infectious area of the world, then that would skew your results, rendering them statistically insignificant.

For the "man in the street" understanding to be ascertained, you'd have to vaccinate/placebo ... and then sneeze in 40,000 faces and see what the infection rates were. But that'd be ethically difficult.


This guy explains it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRYZGWDp5Ag


I gather that, for "ethical reasons" the placebo group have since been vaccinated. There goes any chance of a long term study into side effects. As with mobile phone signals, the long term study is going to be us.

Vaccinating the placebo group helps long term study - what's the point in conducting long term study on a group of folks without the vaccine! (Having a placebo group initially serves a different purpose).

antiskeptic

antiskeptic wrote: »

To be expected perhaps. We are told things like "efficacy of 95%!!" and the like. Now the man in the street would suppose this to mean:

"If I take this 95% efficacy vaccine and if someone with Covid sneezes in my face, I've a 95% chance of not developing Covid"

But that's not the way it works. Nobody can tell you what your chances of catching Covid are with or without a vaccine.

Out of 40,000 people in the trial 20000 vaccinated/20000 placebo, something like 83 went on to develop Covid from the placebo group and 9 from the vaccinated group. Now I don't know much about statistics, but if you happened to have portions of either group residing in a high/low infectious area of the world, then that would skew your results, rendering them statistically insignificant.

For the "man in the street" understanding to be ascertained, you'd have to vaccinate/placebo ... and then sneeze in 40,000 faces and see what the infection rates were. But that'd be ethically difficult.


This guy explains it..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRYZGWDp5Ag


I gather that, for "ethical reasons" the placebo group have since been vaccinated. There goes any chance of a long term study into side effects. As with mobile phone signals, the long term study is going to be us.

You dont need a placebo group to study the long term effects, just the efficacy. The non vaccine group for safety is everyone who has never got the vaccine. If the rates of adverse effects in the group who got the vaccine are higher than background population effects, there is an issue to be assessed.

For example, for Pandemrix, the events of Narcolepsy were higher than background, but they were in fact lower than in those who were not vaccinated and got the Swine Flu. Turns out it was a protein common to the virus and the antigen used in the vaccine could both trigger the same auto-immune response that very rarely triggers narcolepsy

antiskeptic

antiskeptic wrote: »

That much I understand. Now, tossing a coin is picking from the same population .. to the point of being a perfectly neutral pick. Now, if you tossed a coin 40,000 times and you repeated that exercise 100 times, what would be the range in results obtained. You wouldn't get 20,000/20,000 x 100 times in any case.

Could the range exceed having 83-9 more heads than harps?




He started out by telling us, him pro vaccine and with a Ph.D that his undersanding of efficacy was the man on the streets understanding. He's hardly an idiot.

It might help inform someone if they knew that there was no figure given for their chances of getting the vaccine. Or their chances of contributing to herd immunity.

Say the vaccine improved your chances by 10%. A person weighing risk could decide not to take the vaccine at 10% improvement in personal chances. But if it was 95% improvement then they'd figure it was worth a punt.

In your example, the chance of 83 heads and 9 harps occurring in a fair toss is 1 in 5.7quadrillion.

This is kind of how efficacy is calculated. In a trial for example where 100 patients in a trial get covid , 5 of whom had the vaccine, the odds of this occurring by chance are about 1 in 10 to the power of 22.

What a 5 in 100 result tells you is that the proportion of cases in the vaccine population is that its 5%, with a 95% Confidence Interval that the true rate is between 1.6% and 11.3%.

nommm

https://t.co/bwOe6Vqsji
Johnson and Johnson expecting to apply for EUA in February. Fingers crossed for good results, would really speed up things.

Also this is a good article discussing potential outcomes of vaccination on herd immunity.
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/2020/12/17/covid-19-vaccines-and-herd-immunity/

Gael23

Are they suggesting 6 to 9 months for at risk groups or the entire population?