COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Gael23

Push wave 1 out to Q1 2021 and I don’t think it’s that far fetched

funnydoggy

Gael23 wrote: »

Push wave 1 out to Q1 2021 and I don’t think it’s that far fetched

What's lovely is that we're talking about it and it's so close

ACitizenErased

funnydoggy wrote: »

What's lovely is that we're talking about it and it's so close

It's actually quite exciting

funnydoggy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's actually quite exciting

Pints for all!

Edit: But being serious, it's the return to normality on the horizon that excites me most. Socialisation (in or out of a pub), going to see shows / films, less having to be super aware of your movements, businesses recovering, etc. etc

Gael23

funnydoggy wrote: »

What's lovely is that we're talking about it and it's so close

I would add a caveat that I imagine supply will be quite limited to begin with and there will be far from enough vaccines for everyone that wants one

funnydoggy

Gael23 wrote: »

I would add a caveat that I imagine supply will be quite limited to begin with and there will be far from enough vaccines for everyone that wants one

You're just saying that so you don't have to invite us to your birthday party for pints hahahaha

But yeah, of course. Once it gets rolled out even to a small few though it'll be an exciting road to recovery!

Hmmzis

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/oxford-astra-covid-vaccine-review-said-to-start-in-europe

Looks like the EU are starting the ball rolling!

Here is the official statement from EMA:

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-starts-first-rolling-review-covid-19-vaccine-eu

To me it sounds much like the reviews that FDA is doing for promising treatments and vaccines. Going through the data the moment it's available. That's good stuff, doesn't compromise the review integrity but compresses the timeline by a good chunk.

seamie78

Is it a sign that promising results are expected shortly, its interesting that this only seems to be applied to one particular candidate

Call me Al

I think it gives hope, and right now its needed.

But once there is an end in sight people's focus will change, impatience frustration that we are having to wait, and then of course the hysterics of those anti-vaxxers advocating for natural immunity.
I can see the headlines already.

JTMan

The FT reports on the latest on the Moderna vaccine here (paywall).

- November 25 at the earliest for the submission to the regulators for emergency use (healthcare workers etc)
- FDA previously said turnaround for emergency authorisation is about 1 month. So Moderna might get emergency authorisation by Christmas day.
- Full approval to distribute the drug to all sections of the population not expected until next spring.
- Pfizer seem to be moving the quickest and still hope to have “an answer” on their vaccine by the end of October.

D.Q

Call me Al wrote: »

I think it gives hope, and right now its needed.

But once there is an end in sight people's focus will change, impatience frustration that we are having to wait, and then of course the hysterics of those anti-vaxxers advocating for natural immunity.
I can see the headlines already.

I'm just glad that this is coming out now and there is still a sizable portion of the public that hasn't been radicalised by anti vax, 5G, facebook/instagram bull****.

It's an absolute scourge that seems to be spreading.

5/10 years down the line and I'd say you'd have a harder job convincing people to take the vaccine en masse.

Diarmuid

Call me Al wrote: »

I think it gives hope, and right now its needed.

But once there is an end in sight people's focus will change, impatience frustration that we are having to wait, and then of course the hysterics of those anti-vaxxers advocating for natural immunity.
I can see the headlines already.

Speaking of headlines https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54371559

Even an effective coronavirus vaccine will not return life to normal in spring, a group of leading scientists has warned.

Hope is good but it should be connected to reality. Personally I would be surprised if I was able to get a vaccine before Q4 next year

noserider

What about those who have had COVID and recovered, do they need a vaccine if and when available?

iguana

noserider wrote: »

What about those who have had COVID and recovered, do they need a vaccine if and when available?

At this point it seems very likely that reinfection within months of infection is possible. I almost certainly had Covid in March (which I’m not yet fully recovered from) and I’d take the vaccine tomorrow if it was available. Even if future infections would be assymptomatic for me, I don’t want to risk passing it on to someone else.

plodder

Afaik, the people most likely to catch it a second time are those who were asymptomatic the first time around and didn't develop much of an antibody response. The worse you had it, the greater the antibody response from what I heard.

funnydoggy

There's the T-Cell immunity too that may be more widespread than what's thought. I don't know much about it though!

Hmmzis

noserider wrote: »

What about those who have had COVID and recovered, do they need a vaccine if and when available?

Most likely yes, the wild type infection doesn't seem to induce a strong enough response in many people that lasts, especially in asymptomatic and very mild cases. So far the vaccine trials that have included recovered people have shown that the vaccine can significantly boost the immune response (>4x).

Hmmzis

funnydoggy wrote: »

There's the T-Cell immunity too that may be more widespread than what's thought. I don't know much about it though!

They help, a lot, can save your life even, but mostly would lower the severity and shedding period of any subsequent infections (protective/partial immunity). To completely avoid reinfection a neutralizing antibody response is required (sterilizing immunity).

Gael23

Diarmuid wrote: »

Speaking of headlines https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54371559



Hope is good but it should be connected to reality. Personally I would be surprised if I was able to get a vaccine before Q4 next year

Good look to NEPHET trying to enforce restrictions for a minute after the ammouncement that a vaccine has been licenced

marno21

Gael23 wrote: »

Good look to NEPHET trying to enforce restrictions for a minute after the ammouncement that a vaccine has been licenced

There won't be 2 billion doses available upon approval though. That's one stumbling block that most people may not have copped onto yet.

As soon as the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, pressure on hospitals will drop and also ICUs/deaths/severe disease. Then it'll become much easier to open up society while we wait for further vaccination to eradicate the virus.

ACitizenErased

Derek Lowe's latest article on the J+J Phase I/II studies. I actually think he's the best around, he simplifies a lot of things into layman's terms. Really good read.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/01/jj-vaccine-data

Micky 32

Diarmuid wrote: »

Speaking of headlines https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54371559



Hope is good but it should be connected to reality. Personally I would be surprised if I was able to get a vaccine before Q4 next year

Even if it does take a year ( not long in the grand scheme of things) i'll take it at this stage because at least it's some sort of end in sight and then we can give the fingers to a certain cohort of misery merchants

tobefrank321

JTMan wrote: »

The FT reports on the latest on the Moderna vaccine here (paywall).

- November 25 at the earliest for the submission to the regulators for emergency use (healthcare workers etc)
- FDA previously said turnaround for emergency authorisation is about 1 month. So Moderna might get emergency authorisation by Christmas day.
- Full approval to distribute the drug to all sections of the population not expected until next spring.
- Pfizer seem to be moving the quickest and still hope to have “an answer” on their vaccine by the end of October.

Don't really understand why it will take the fda a month to approve. Is it not possible for them to be kept up to date and investigate concurrently with phase 3 and then approve it.

Diarmuid

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Don't really understand why it will take the fda a month to approve. Is it not possible for them to be kept up to date and investigate concurrently with phase 3 and then approve it.

It takes time to do due diligence. You are giving a medicine to potentially billions of people *who are not sick*. Even rare lethal side effects (say 1 in 100,000) could result in 10 of thousands of deaths, of people who were healthy. All regulatory agencies have a massive job to do here.

dominatinMC

Looks like the wheels are in motion across the pond

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-54375643

Gael23

dominatinMC wrote: »

Looks like the wheels are in motion across the pond

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-54375643

Will that apply to the EU or just England?

Le Bruise

Gael23 wrote: »

Will that apply to the EU or just England?

Assume EU is currently working on something similar for its members? Incredible that these types of stories are beginning to come out/be leaked. Really promising.

iguana

dominatinMC wrote: »

Looks like the wheels are in motion across the pond

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-54375643

So Triumph is almost certainly OxfordAZ. Is 'Ambush' Moderna or does PfizerBT also need to be stored at cold temperatures?

Edit; Google answered that for me!
"The vaccine reportedly needs to be held in storage at -94° Fahrenheit, and will last for only 24 hours at refrigerated temps between 35.6° and 46.4°"

dominatinMC

Gael23 wrote: »

Will that apply to the EU or just England?

I assume just England given that they have left the EU. But I'd also assume that the EU are working on similar arrangements

Smiles35

As in the title. When are we getting the vaccination for this?

TheValeyard

Thursday, around noon.

I normally have lunch at noon. Can someone let them know I'll be a bit late? Thanks.

funnydoggy

2021 most likely.

Lovely thread here - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062347

Smiles35

TheValeyard wrote: »

Thursday, around noon.

That's great thanks. I was wondering.

is_that_so

Study on how colds might help protect you from COVID-19 and how long COVID-19 immunity might last.

A new study provides evidence that the seasonal colds you've had in the past could protect you from COVID-19. The study also suggests that immunity to COVID-19 is likely to last a long time -- maybe even a lifetime.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200929123510.htm

hmmm

iguana wrote: »

So Triumph is almost certainly OxfordAZ. Is 'Ambush' Moderna or does PfizerBT also need to be stored at cold temperatures?

Edit; Google answered that for me!
"The vaccine reportedly needs to be held in storage at -94° Fahrenheit, and will last for only 24 hours at refrigerated temps between 35.6° and 46.4°"

From the perspective of planning, it doesn't make a difference whether Ambush is Moderna or Pfizer I suppose. Both will have similar storage requirements.

Pfizer looks like it will win the race though assuming nothing trips them up.

We're distributing 2 million Flu vaccines in Ireland over the next month and there should be little fuss. Sounds like we are in a good place for this - and we are unlikely to get millions of Covid vaccine doses in one month.

Gael23

The most efficient way would be for the HSE to set up clinics. GPS will be overwhelmed otherwise

expectationlost

iguana wrote: »

At this point it seems very likely that reinfection within months of infection is possible. I almost certainly had Covid in March (which I’m not yet fully recovered from) and I’d take the vaccine tomorrow if it was available. Even if future infections would be assymptomatic for me, I don’t want to risk passing it on to someone else.

does a vaccine prevent you passing it on to someone else?

hmmm

expectationlost wrote: »

does a vaccine prevent you passing it on to someone else?

Based on the limited trial data we have so far, it may be the case that the first generation vaccines will give protection from serious disease but you can still get the virus and infect other people. We'll know more when the Phase 3 trials are over.

This is one of the reasons why we are told that even with the vaccine, we will be asked to keep up some of the social distancing, mask wearing etc. for some time.

Hmmzis

Might be of interest to those who follow testing procedures and correlates of infectiousness:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1491/5912603

Testing on the E gene they were not able to culture anything at all above a Ct>35, regardless of time post symptom onset.

Gael23

hmmm wrote: »

Based on the limited trial data we have so far, it may be the case that the first generation vaccines will give protection from serious disease but you can still get the virus and infect other people. We'll know more when the Phase 3 trials are over.

This is one of the reasons why we are told that even with the vaccine, we will be asked to keep up some of the social distancing, mask wearing etc. for some time.

So there won’t be large gatherings or offices reopening anytime in the foreseeable future?

funnydoggy

Gael23 wrote: »

So there won’t be large gatherings or offices reopening anytime in the foreseeable future?

I'd imagine it would be advised alright.

Marhay70

Gael23 wrote: »

So there won’t be large gatherings or offices reopening anytime in the foreseeable future?

Really it's enough in my view that the universal death sentence is removed at the first hurdle. I know we would all love a one shot covers all solution but I don't mind carrying on with social distancing, hand washing, face masks etc. just for the peace of mind that that would bring.
My son and daughter are coming to visit today for the first time in months and though I know that both they and ourselves will follow the guidelines to the letter, there is always the nagging doubt that we might have missed something.

timsey tiger

hmmm wrote: »

Based on the limited trial data we have so far, it may be the case that the first generation vaccines will give protection from serious disease but you can still get the virus and infect other people. We'll know more when the Phase 3 trials are over.

This is one of the reasons why we are told that even with the vaccine, we will be asked to keep up some of the social distancing, mask wearing etc. for some time.

This might give the anti-vaxers food for thought.

Gael23

I thought the whole idea of a vaccine was to prevent transmission

JDD

I imagine the whole idea of a vaccine is to prevent the adverse complications, including death, from the infection? As a secondary bonus prevention of transmission would be preferable?

I don't really mean this, but I nearly hope the first generation vaccines do still make you somewhat infectious. That would stop all the "oh I'll just let everyone else take the vaccine and rely on the herd immunity to get by" bollix that anti-vaxxers rely on.

Gael23

JDD wrote: »

I imagine the whole idea of a vaccine is to prevent the adverse complications, including death, from the infection? As a secondary bonus prevention of transmission would be preferable?

I don't really mean this, but I nearly hope the first generation vaccines do still make you somewhat infectious. That would stop all the "oh I'll just let everyone else take the vaccine and rely on the herd immunity to get by" bollix that anti-vaxxers rely on.

Won’t get the world moving again if that’s the aim

Hmmzis

Gael23 wrote: »

I thought the whole idea of a vaccine was to prevent transmission

The primary outcome for any vaccine effort is to prevent disease, preventing transmission is and has been a secondary outcome.

That said, the polio vaccines do not provide sterilizing protection, yet humans have managed to bring it to near extinction.

With most of the vaccine candidates we have NHP data for, we can see that the viral loads (where they are detected) persist for a shorter time and at lower levels. That means the effective transmission window would also be reduced, effectively slowing down spread. You might want to opine that ChAdOx1 didn't have reduced nose viral loads. True, the nose was not protected, the other respiratory organs though were protected, quite noticeably. That reduces the overall viral burden and would decrease the total number of virions one is able to shed and for a shorter period of time. It would also most likely change how much infectious aerosols one is able to produce. All that adds up to reduce the effective reproduction rate of the virus (Rt).

dominatinMC

hmmm wrote: »

Based on the limited trial data we have so far, it may be the case that the first generation vaccines will give protection from serious disease but you can still get the virus and infect other people. We'll know more when the Phase 3 trials are over.

This is one of the reasons why we are told that even with the vaccine, we will be asked to keep up some of the social distancing, mask wearing etc. for some time.

Can't see that happening. City centres are decimated, sporting events, live music, etc. - all gone. Tourism industry on it's knees. Once the vaccine is here and is readily available, the general public, lobby groups, even the government themselves will be looking to get things up-and-running again. Hand washing and cough etiquette will, and should, remain - they are basic hygiene requirements. Maybe some mask wearing will persist as a legacy from this, but I don't see social distancing (particularly on the scale we have currently) existing. In many demographics (students, etc.) it's never even existed! :pac:

Beasty

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