COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Hmmzis

Thierry12 wrote: »

Yes its true

No sterilising immunity

Nasal vaccines might give it in the future

What is actually the source of this assertion?

corcaigh07

Are anyone doing antibody tests? Surely, some countries must have a decent level of herd immunity by now (UK getting close to 1% of the population confirmed to have had it, how many more are undetected?)

jackboy

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What the fcuk? So basically, we're all getting this virus?

Yes, masks and social distancing will need to continue post vaccine.

Thierry12

Hmmzis wrote: »

What is actually the source of this assertion?

A source was posted earlier

I know you saw it, don't pretend you didn't

If you want to read a bit

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it%3famp

dominatinMC

jackboy wrote: »

Yes, masks and social distancing will need to continue post vaccine.

Masks - maybe. Social distancing - absolutely no chance.

jackboy

dominatinMC wrote: »

Masks - maybe. Social distancing - absolutely no chance.

If we don’t continue with some level of social distancing post vaccine the hospitals will still get over run.

Thierry12

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What the fcuk? So basically, we're all getting this virus?

Yes and no

Someone explained it earlier to me

We will get the infection, but not the disease.

As in you won't get badly sick, at worst a head cold

Supposedly its very hard to get sterilising immunity for mucous membranes, like nasal passage

Injections to the muscle are not great at protecting them, Nasal vaccine supposedly has the best chance of sterilising immunity, we will get those later on

is_that_so

Another BCG trial starting - in health workers.

The vaccine was designed to stop tuberculosis, but there is some evidence it can protect against other infections as well.

Around 1,000 people will take part in the trial at the University of Exeter.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54465733

Thierry12

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Are anyone doing antibody tests? Surely, some countries must have a decent level of herd immunity by now (UK getting close to 1% of the population confirmed to have had it, how many more are undetected?)

We've no accurate way of testing and we don't know long immunity lasts

It was talked about alot months ago but with T cell reactions, antibodies fading, no idea om immunity it all went quiet

HSE must know about immunity though :-)

I have a friend who got it in April and she's not tested in her nursing home, because she got it in April they took her off the list and doesn't get tested every 2 weeks like the rest

Insane to do that imo

Anyone know if that's common practice and why?

What do HSE know about immunity?

Away With The Fairies

jackboy wrote: »

Yes, masks and social distancing will need to continue post vaccine.

It's not the continuation of masks and social distancing I'm worried about. It's actually getting this virus.

Thierry12

is_that_so wrote: »

Another BCG trial starting - in health workers.



https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54465733

Interesting read but not peer reviewed

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/study-confirms-bcg-vaccine-efficacy/story-zj9Si5vLpKZAJOwDN6ZJJI.html

is_that_so

Thierry12 wrote: »

Interesting read but not peer reviewed

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/study-confirms-bcg-vaccine-efficacy/story-zj9Si5vLpKZAJOwDN6ZJJI.html

Most the these trials are still ongoing. It's a good line of investigation to pursue. The impression I get is that they are hoping to identify some benefit but are not looking to it as a major solution.

Thierry12

is_that_so wrote: »

Most the these trials are still ongoing. It's a good line of investigation to pursue. The impression I get is that they are hoping to identify some benefit but are not looking to it as a major solution.

Only reading through it but like Vitamin D, Zinc etc it makes sense.

dominatinMC

jackboy wrote: »

If we don’t continue with some level of social distancing post vaccine the hospitals will still get over run.

How so?

Hmmzis

Thierry12 wrote: »

A source was posted earlier

I know you saw it, don't pretend you didn't

If you want to read a bit

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it%3famp

You're speaking as if it's an established fact. While that article (among a slew of others) are talking about all sorts of possibilities and scenarios, not established facts. It's good to have a discussion about that before phase 3 readouts start happening, so that there is a clearer picture of what policies to apply and follow and what the most effective deployment strategies could be for each scenario. Taking one out of context and presenting it as the only possible outcome and an established fact is misleading at best.

While we all would wish for efficacy like that of the HPV vaccine and most of the candidates are aiming at that, if we get something that's only as good as the polio one it would bring back life to normalcy sooner than some 'experts' would like you to believe.

In that same context - infection != disease. Have a read about what the Human Virome is. If something does not cause disease it's a scientific curiosity, not a health emergency.

Beasty

Threads merged

jackboy

dominatinMC wrote: »

How so?

The vaccine will improve outcomes but not eliminate spread of the virus. Stopping social distancing may cause the virus to spread very fast, it’s very infectious. So stopping social distancing may counteract the effectiveness of the the vaccine, in regards to keeping the hospitals ability to handle the numbers.

Thierry12

Hmmzis wrote: »

You're speaking as if it's an established fact. While that article (among a slew of others) are talking about all sorts of possibilities and scenarios, not established facts. It's good to have a discussion about that before phase 3 readouts start happening, so that there is a clearer picture of what policies to apply and follow and what the most effective deployment strategies could be for each scenario. Taking one out of context and presenting it as the only possible outcome and an established fact is misleading at best.

While we all would wish for efficacy like that of the HPV vaccine and most of the candidates are aiming at that, if we get something that's only as good as the polio one it would bring back life to normalcy sooner than some 'experts' would like you to believe.

In that same context - infection != disease. Have a read about what the Human Virome is. If something does not cause disease it's a scientific curiosity, not a health emergency.

Find me a source that says Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer/ whatever vaccines we are getting in the EU give sterilising immunity through an injection for Covid19

Even find me a claim from the manufacturer that claims sterilising immunity

I'll shut up then

dominatinMC

jackboy wrote: »

The vaccine will improve outcomes but not eliminate spread of the virus. Stopping social distancing may cause the virus to spread very fast, it’s very infectious. So stopping social distancing may counteract the effectiveness of the the vaccine, in regards to keeping the hospitals ability to handle the numbers.

Somehow I don't think that's how it's going to play out. Sure, some social distancing might be required in the early stages when the vaccine is being distributed, but once the vulnerable are protected, I'd argue that governments, civilians, everybody will be eager to get back to normal. Social distancing is costing the government a fortune, costing people their livelihoods, and is not viable indefinitely.

Cordell

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

What does that even mean- “Putins seal of approval”?

Putin rubberstamped it with no proper testing.

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

You test it under the prescribed reg conditions in clinical trials.

Why? There's plenty of other vaccines going transparently through regulatory testing.

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

You say it’s not proven to be effective- is there data available to prove that?

No, but there is no data to prove it's safe and effective.

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

But we should be do in h those tests under license here in Europe and test he Russian vaccine. If it fails, then we know it’s not effective. But I don’t think we should be dismissing and borderline sniggering at it “ah sure it’s only the Russians I wouldn’t trust them” narrative

Again, why test their vaccine when there's already vaccines that are ahead of it in the testing process?

marno21

The early vaccines will not protect against viral infection from SARS-CoV-2, but they will protect against severe Covid-19 disease. If it becomes the case that the most severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 in vaccinated people is as severe as a standard cold, we will be back to normality just as we managed to live before March 2020 with all the other colds and flus. Eventually we may get better vaccines that protect against initial infection but the main priority in the short term is improving patient outcomes while we try to return to full normal life.

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic just like the other human coronaviruses and every other viral threat we regularly face. The genie is not going back in the bottle.

stephenjmcd

jackboy wrote: »

Yes, masks and social distancing will need to continue post vaccine.

Yeah thats gone as soon as a meaningful number have been vaccinated.

Once a vaccine prevents serious illness then the measure around it relax / dissapear

Dionaibh

Cordell wrote: »

Putin rubberstamped it with no proper testing.


Why? There's plenty of other vaccines going transparently through regulatory testing.


No, but there is no data to prove it's safe and effective.



Again, why test their vaccine when there's already vaccines that are ahead of it in the testing process?

But the reason it was approved was because all the work (testing, research, development) was done for vaccines for Ebola and MERS that they worked on. The vaccine is based on those vaccines. They just tweaked it a bit.

But they published data in the Lancet which showed it to be effective in the patients it was tested on.

The reason I'd feel more confident about the Russian vaccine is because they are using proven and safe technology, whereas some of the other vaccines are using experimental technology.

Dionaibh

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah thats gone as soon as a meaningful number have been vaccinated.

Once a vaccine prevents serious illness then the measure around it relax / dissapear

I hope you're right. A lot of people seem to be a bit too fond of the mask.

Thierry12

marno21 wrote: »

The early vaccines will not protect against viral infection from SARS-CoV-2, but they will protect against severe Covid-19 disease. If it becomes the case that the most severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 in vaccinated people is as severe as a standard cold, we will be back to normality just as we managed to live before March 2020 with all the other colds and flus. Eventually we may get better vaccines that protect against initial infection but the main priority in the short term is improving patient outcomes while we try to return to full normal life.

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic just like the other human coronaviruses and every other viral threat we regularly face. The genie is not going back in the bottle.

Yes sterilising immunity doesn't look possible from injectable vaccines, not sure I'd be as pessimistic as you though

Those who are injected more than likely will have nothing worse than a cold and may not be able to infect others easily

We will know soon enough after phase 3

Take your point about old and vulnerable

If the vaccines dont give sterilising immunity it might dodgy for 80+ and those with compromised immune systems to be out and about

irishgeo

marno21 wrote: »

The early vaccines will not protect against viral infection from SARS-CoV-2, but they will protect against severe Covid-19 disease. If it becomes the case that the most severe illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 in vaccinated people is as severe as a standard cold, we will be back to normality just as we managed to live before March 2020 with all the other colds and flus. Eventually we may get better vaccines that protect against initial infection but the main priority in the short term is improving patient outcomes while we try to return to full normal life.

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic just like the other human coronaviruses and every other viral threat we regularly face. The genie is not going back in the bottle.

SARS is a Corona virus and went back in its bottle.

jackboy

Thierry12 wrote: »

If the vaccines dont give sterilising immunity it might dodgy for 80+ and those with compromised immune systems to be out and about

This is it exactly. Everything we are doing is to keep the virus away from these people. If a vaccine can’t give strong protection to these people then social distancing will have to continue to protect them. This vaccine needs to protect those who’s health is already on a knife edge. This is a bar that few other vaccines have had to meet.

Panrich

Dionaibh wrote: »

I hope you're right. A lot of people seem to be a bit too fond of the mask.

We had over 1000 new cases logged yesterday. It’s a pity a few more weren’t fond of the mask.

Dionaibh

Panrich wrote: »

We had over 1000 new cases logged yesterday. It’s a pity a few more weren’t fond of the mask.

Masks haven't exactly been a success in Spain or in France. Cases are through the roof in both. Now I think cases are meaningless, but if we're going to base the effectiveness of masks on falling cases then they are quite clearly not working in Spain and France. They've done nothing to stop the rise in cases in the Philippines either.

marno21

irishgeo wrote: »

SARS is a Corona virus and went back in its bottle.

There wasn’t an estimated 700 million worldwide infections of SARS coronavirus within a year of its first discovery though.

Panrich

Dionaibh wrote: »

Masks haven't exactly been a success in Spain or in France. Cases are through the roof in both. Now I think cases are meaningless, but if we're going to base the effectiveness of masks on falling cases then they are quite clearly not working in Spain and France. They've done nothing to stop the rise in cases in the Philippines either.

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

Dionaibh

Panrich wrote: »

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

But in the Philippines people are extremely law abiding and deferential to authority. Everyone has been wearing them since early April. No one dares not wear a mask. They even have to wear a visor in addition to the mask on public transport. And they still have extremely high case numbers. I think they're clearly useless based on France, Spain, and the Philippines, but people have persuaded themselves that they're beneficial so they're not going anywhere.

Marhay70

Dionaibh wrote: »

Masks haven't exactly been a success in Spain or in France. Cases are through the roof in both. Now I think cases are meaningless, but if we're going to base the effectiveness of masks on falling cases then they are quite clearly not working in Spain and France. They've done nothing to stop the rise in cases in the Philippines either.

That doesn't mean they're not effective. it has never been claimed that masks are the solution rather that they are part of the solution. Probably the figures would be even worse without masks.
Common sense and education are big contributors to the fight, I witnessed a complete absence of both while stopped at the traffic lights at Cross Avenue/Mount Merrion Avenue last week. Three young girls 15/16 were standing, chatting, on the corner and passing a can of Coke or something similar around between them. Ironically all were wearing masks under their chins so obviously were compliant and observant of the precautions while inside the school but once outside, all that went out the window. God only knows how many people those three were in contact with on their way home.

Dionaibh

Marhay70 wrote: »

That doesn't mean they're not effective. it has never been claimed that masks are the solution rather that they are part of the solution. Probably the figures would be even worse without masks.
Common sense and education are big contributors to the fight, I witnessed a complete absence of both while stopped at the traffic lights at Cross Avenue/Mount Merrion Avenue last week. Three young girls 15/16 were standing, chatting, on the corner and passing a can of Coke or something similar around between them. Ironically all were wearing masks under their chins so obviously were compliant and observant of the precautions while inside the school but once outside, all that went out the window. God only knows how many people those three were in contact with on their way home.

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

irishgeo

Dionaibh wrote: »

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

Masks aren't vworn in people's houses which is where the majority of the cases are being picked up.

It's obvious the GAA celebrations and student parties have led to the huge increase in numbers.

hmmm

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

For those following the vaccines, is it true that a vaccine isn't going to give immunity?

We won't know what level of immunity is achievable until the completion of Phase 3 testing.

This is a good article on the types of potential immunity we are likely to see:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

Dionaibh

irishgeo wrote: »

Masks aren't vworn in people's houses which is where the majority of the cases are being picked up.

It's obvious the GAA celebrations and student parties have led to the huge increase in numbers.

But the test is so sensitive it picks up dead virus fragments. It's crazy.

So why are masks being worn everywhere in the countries I mentioned if the problem is people's homes?

Le Bruise

Why has the vaccines/treatments thread turned into a mask debate?

dexter647

I'm fairly sure there's a mask thread out there somewhere so can we please keep this thread for vaccines and treatments please:)

Ten of Swords

There has been enough mask talk in this thread, there was a mod note yesterday about this. Talk about masks here

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058111744

Thierry12

hmmm wrote: »

We won't know what level of immunity is achievable until the completion of Phase 3 testing.

This is a good article on the types of potential immunity we are likely to see:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

Good article

Sterilising immunity unlikely, out the question one expert said

Possible to infect others because of that non sterilising immunity ( primates early phases were infectious )

Not landing in hospital very likely, pretty much crisis over which we all want

Strangely some of those experts are even implying a herd immunity situation in the functional section

You'll never get as sick as you were the first time would be nice

Are any of these trials going to test immunity theory and deliberately infect trialists?

Suppose with Covid rampant now what's the point, they'll encounter it anyways.

Gael23

Panrich wrote: »

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

I think that’s largely because the Armageddon of dead bodies in makeshift morgues we were prepared for last time didn’t happen. Also people are seeing others make good recoveries off they do contract it

jackboy

Thierry12 wrote: »

Good article

Sterilising immunity unlikely, out the question one expert said

Possible to infect others because of that non sterilising immunity ( primates early phases were infectious )

Not landing in hospital very likely, pretty much crisis over which we all want

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

Thierry12

jackboy wrote: »

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

True

They refused Aids and immune compromised in many if these trials

We will know soon enough

Its all gone very quiet, not much amazing results/hype lately from Oxford etc

MerlinSouthDub

Thierry12 wrote: »

True

They refused Aids and immune compromised in many if these trials

We will know soon enough

Its all gone very quiet, not much amazing results/hype lately from Oxford etc

It's actually a good sign that results are taking longer to come. The more effective the vaccine is, the longer it will take to get results (all other things being equal)

charlie14

Dionaibh wrote: »

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

I`m not sure Sweden is a great comparison to the likes of Norway and Finland. Per Capita Sweden has had a multiple of 12 times the number of Covid-19 deaths of Norway and 9 times that of Finland.



But aside from that,Sweden had 562 new cases Wednesday, 855 Thursday and 919 Friday.
On 28th September the positive rate for test results in Stockholm, (the area where most of their hope of acquiring herd immunity was based with it being their epicenter of infections) was 4.1%.

Sconsey

jackboy wrote: »

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

Phase three trials include at risk groups.

jackboy

Sconsey wrote: »

Phase three trials include at risk groups.

Including the elderly and cancer patients etc?

Sconsey

jackboy wrote: »

Including the elderly and cancer patients etc?

Yes to elderly, don't know about cancer patients.

jackboy

Sconsey wrote: »

Yes to elderly, don't know about cancer patients.

Well the elderly part is most important. It needs to give significant protection to them or there will still be high levels of deaths.