COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

hmmm

I suspect political and scientific leaders worldwide are trying to walk a tightrope. They want to give people hope and tell them to hold on, and they also want people to be realistic. I think the UK scientific discussion is more useful than ours in many ways.

There's a high likelihood that we will know in a month or two that we have vaccines (probably multiple).
There's a high likelihood that they will be approved for use by high risk groups pretty quickly.
It's realistic to think it will take 6 months+ for enough vaccine to be made for everyone who wants one.
It's also realistic to think that regulators will want to see more data, so most people who are not in at-risk groups shouldn't expect a vaccine before the second half of next year and should behave accordingly.
It's also realistic to say that vaccines won't immediately solve everything, but things will gradually get better.

stephenjmcd

Santy2015 wrote: »

I just can’t see us adhering to these restrictions past December. It’s going on far too long now!! The vaccine is coming we all know it. He doesn’t want to acknowledge it, it seems. Nobody in government or media are giving vaccines much coverage. We need good news not the constant fear and negative narrative that we see daily in the media

I think part of what he's at is to look as pessimistic as possible to the regular citizen who is they haven't looked into vaccine research probably has no idea of the current state of play. Then in Q1 for example he's seen as getting Ireland a great deal with its share of the EU purchase when its absolutely nothing to do with him and how this now paves the way to slowly let up on restrictions.

The minute there's a whiff of vaccinations starting it becomes difficult to get buy in for restrictions, more difficult than it is now.

Now let's not kid ourselves nothing goes back to normal overnight, any unwinding is going to be gradual over a period of a few months.

ACitizenErased

To be fair, if Mehole comes out now saying 'oh ya vaccine soon' then compliance will drop substantially

Stheno

Santy2015 wrote: »

I just can’t see us adhering to these restrictions past December. It’s going on far too long now!! The vaccine is coming we all know it. He doesn’t want to acknowledge it, it seems. Nobody in government or media are giving vaccines much coverage. We need good news not the constant fear and negative narrative that we see daily in the media

I suspect the sudden appetite from the government to being in fines for being outside 5km and house parties are an indication that they realise they will not ever get us to a point of living with Covid and have no way of controlling it and now need to have punitive measures to do so

Gael23

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Martin in the Dail
"Even when a working vaccine has been developed successfully, its manufacture and distribution would take many months and Ireland would still be dealing with Covid-19", he said.

Someone might want to tell him that manufacturing has already been on going for months and that supply chains are already being set up & that Ireland will get its share of the EU advance purchase.

To me it stinks of there being no plan in place here for rollout or when vaccine rollout does begin in Q1 2021 he can come out and take credit. The man is actually clueless

How much of a share of the EU vaccine programme would come to Ireland?

Sweet.Science

Firemen got informed a vaccine will be distributed within the next couple of months

Hmmzis

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Firemen got informed a vaccine will be distributed within the next couple of months

Would you have a source for that? Ireland's powers to be have been eerily quiet about it.

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

How much of a share of the EU vaccine programme would come to Ireland?

Everyone is treated equally under the EU programme. Everyone receives it at the same time.

Marty Bird

EU agreed 300 million doses of Oxford so that’s 11 million per member but I doubt it will be divided like that.

Gael23

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Everyone is treated equally under the EU programme. Everyone receives it at the same time.

I understand that but is it going to be govern out based on population as a percentage of the EU in which case we get a tiny quantity?

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Martin in the Dail
"Even when a working vaccine has been developed successfully, its manufacture and distribution would take many months and Ireland would still be dealing with Covid-19", he said.

Someone might want to tell him that manufacturing has already been on going for months and that supply chains are already being set up & that Ireland will get its share of the EU advance purchase.

To me it stinks of there being no plan in place here for rollout or when vaccine rollout does begin in Q1 2021 he can come out and take credit. The man is actually clueless

Yes manufacturing has begun, but it will be a relatively small amount available straight after approval. The advance purchase agreements are there but there is little detail on the proposed timeline for when supply will be available. Part of the EU agreement is that countries will only purchase supply for their vulnerable population initially to ensure fair distribution. Some of the manufacturing capacity is still in the process of being built. None are being manufactured in Ireland at the moment so we are dependant on imports along what will be a delicate supply chain.

I don't like the Taoiseach's style in general but it is absolutely better to temper expectations rather than be completely bullish and overconfident. That's not being pessimistic, it's just injecting a bit of realism.

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

I understand that but is it going to be govern out based on population as a percentage of the EU in which case we get a tiny quantity?

We'll get what we ask for

Stheno

Gael23 wrote: »

I understand that but is it going to be govern out based on population as a percentage of the EU in which case we get a tiny quantity?

Well doesn't that make sense? If we are 2% of the EU population we get 2% of the available vaccines?

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

I understand that but is it going to be govern out based on population as a percentage of the EU in which case we get a tiny quantity?

Initially it will be a per capita allowance with provision made for the "vulnerable" population of a country. So for example Italy with a large section of their population aged 65 or over might get a slightly larger per capita allowance.

Gael23

Stheno wrote: »

Well doesn't that make sense? If we are 2% of the EU population we get 2% of the available vaccines?

Would it be done some way like that? I’ve no idea but it strikes me as a logical method

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

Well doesn't that make sense? If we are 2% of the EU population we get 2% of the available vaccines?

We're just over 1% of the population of the EU so of the initial 100m doses of the Pfizer vaccine we'd get a million doses so enough for 500,000. We have about 650,000 people over 65 and over 100,000 healthcare workers, but that would make a serious dent in getting a vaccine to those at most risk.

The biggest question is the how effective the vaccines are for older people.

JacksonHeightsOwn

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We're just over 1% of the population of the EU so of the initial 100m doses of the Pfizer vaccine we'd get a million doses so enough for 500,000. We have about 650,000 people over 65 and over 100,000 healthcare workers, but that would make a serious dent in getting a vaccine to those at most risk.

The biggest question is the how effective the vaccines are for older people.

I'd presume it's far better than nothing!

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

I suspect political and scientific leaders worldwide are trying to walk a tightrope. They want to give people hope and tell them to hold on, and they also want people to be realistic. I think the UK scientific discussion is more useful than ours in many ways.

There's a high likelihood that we will know in a month or two that we have vaccines (probably multiple).
There's a high likelihood that they will be approved for use by high risk groups pretty quickly.
It's realistic to think it will take 6 months+ for enough vaccine to be made for everyone who wants one.
It's also realistic to think that regulators will want to see more data, so most people who are not in at-risk groups shouldn't expect a vaccine before the second half of next year and should behave accordingly.
It's also realistic to say that vaccines won't immediately solve everything, but things will gradually get better.

Applying what you know about a vaccine, how far away is normal socialising, travel, full sports stadiums etc? I haven’t seen information on a vaccination programme for citizens

Just a guess, I’m only trying to suss out what the general opinion is

Le Bruise

Deleted User wrote: »

We're just over 1% of the population of the EU so of the initial 100m doses of the Pfizer vaccine we'd get a million doses so enough for 500,000. We have about 650,000 people over 65 and over 100,000 healthcare workers, but that would make a serious dent in getting a vaccine to those at most risk.

The biggest question is the how effective the vaccines are for older people.

That would just be for one of the vaccines though. The EU have deals with several suppliers.

smurfjed

Gael23 wrote: »

I’m not an anti vaxxer at all but I will only take a vaccine if life quickly returns to normal

what is your concept of “quickly”?

Le Bruise

Le Bruise wrote: »

That would just be for one of the vaccines though. The EU have deals with several suppliers.

Absolutely, and I think we'll need a few options. Once we start seeing phase 3 results we'll be better able to figure out what's what. It'll all depend on efficacy in the risk groups.

Gael23

smurfjed wrote: »

what is your concept of “quickly”?

Life back to pre March before summer 2021

Micky 32

xabi wrote: »

Seems like we have another widely read expert amongst us.

Either that or some don’t want to see life go back to normal due to their own agenda’s.

FintanMcluskey

Gael23 wrote: »

Life back to pre March before summer 2021

Sports stadiums full, travel and normal socialising?

Micky 32

Santy2015 wrote: »

I just can’t see us adhering to these restrictions past December. It’s going on far too long now!!

Yep people will go with it this time because of the carrot stick that is xmas. Come dull January/February when level 5 will be announced again people will be pissed off.

charlie14

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yep people will go with it this time because of the carrot stick that is xmas. Come dull January/February when level 5 will be announced again people will be pissed off.

Hopefully when level 5 is lifted people some will display a bit more cop on than they have shown to date. Had they shown that since the lockdown was lifted we would not be back where we are.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Sports stadiums full, travel and normal socialising?

You are doing a lot of asking people to gaze into crystal balls.

When does your crystal ball see that happening without a vaccine?
Never or has it just gone cloudy ?

tjdaly

charlie14 wrote: »

Hopefully when level 5 is lifted people some will display a bit more cop on than they have shown to date. Had they shown that since the lockdown was lifted we would not be back where we are.

Yep. Flipping skateborders around where I live. Flying about in their skate park the last six months. All touching the same railings, careering down the same slopes side by side, and huddled beneath the same tree when the rain comes in. A fair few making out and smoking god knows what too. Deplorable behaviour during a pandemic. Skate Kids.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

You are doing a lot of asking people to gaze into crystal balls.

When does your crystal ball see that happening without a vaccine?
Never or has it just gone cloudy ?

I was asking the question of someone who said life would be back to normal before next Summer, so someone has a crystal ball. I was trying to find out what the opinion was.

It’s just a curiosity I have to see what people are thinking, irrelevant I know.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I was asking the question of someone who said life would be back to normal before next Summer, so someone has a crystal ball. I was trying to find out what the opinion was.

It’s just a curiosity I have to see what people are thinking, irrelevant I know.

Really ?
So you believe the answer to getting out of this mess is by means of a vaccine ?

marno21

Vaccine, improved treatments, more rapid and cheaper testing are the 3 pillars of getting us out of this.

As has been said, Covid-19 will not be brought under control by a silver bullet but rather a thousand small bullets.

Gael23

Well lots of small bullets are often as effective as one big one

ILoveYourVibes

charlie14 wrote: »

Really ?
So you believe the answer to getting out of this mess is by means of a vaccine ?

The POLIO vaccine is 99% effective.

I was taking a course that had a class on immunology with an immunologist as lecturer.

He mentioned when his parents were young many children had polio. For most it left no affects for some devastating affects of lung paralysis or limb paralysis.

When was the last time you heard of a kid with polio in Ireland?

Every child gets the IPV vaccine in Ireland as part of the '6-in-1' vaccine (at 2, 4 and 6 months of age).


British doctor Edward Jenner was the FIRST to develop any kind of vaccine. It was for smallpox. Many felt he was a Dr Saw Bones.

The first method of immunization was VARIOLATION though.

Edward Jenner has been immunized to small pox through variolation when he was a child at school.

Variolation itself was practiced ...since antiquity ...in India Africa and China.

But it wasn't used too much in Europe.

God's will and all.

African slaves actually introduced variolation into America.

marno21

Gael23 wrote: »

Well lots of small bullets are often as effective as one big one

That's the point though - the lots of small bullets are all under development but some don't get as much attention, or any attention, as others. Soon as they hit the market we'll begin to see their effects.

By early 2021, we should start to see the effects of the first vaccines, treatments and rapid testing make a dent on its spread, and then as time goes on we can learn to actually live with it.

ILoveYourVibes

There are different types of vaccines.

Live, inactivated, Subunit, recombinant, polysaccharide,conjugate toxoid vaccines RNA vaccines ...vector vaccines (genetically modifed)

I have no idea what kind of vaccine the covid one will be. If we get one.

Live vaccines provide very strong immunity. But not everyone can take them. Vulnerable people might not be able to use them. But they CAN benefit from the herd immunity.

Subunit, recombinant, polysaccharide, and conjugate vaccines are newer but also give a very strong immune response AND most everyone can take them but you need boosters. Whereas most live vaccines give longer immunity.

Gael23

Someone said earlier there’s some news hoped for in November? I can’t find the post now

ILoveYourVibes

Gael23 wrote: »

Someone said earlier there’s some news hoped for in November? I can’t find the post now

I seriously doubt the veracity of this.

Vaccines take years to develop. And believe it or not ....this covid vaccine has not been as well funded as you might think.

Santy2015

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I seriously doubt the veracity of this.

Vaccines take years to develop. And believe it or not ....this covid vaccine has not been as well funded as you might think.

Full of shît!!

Sky King

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I seriously doubt the veracity of this. .

3 by year end, more in 2021 according to some (fairly reliable) sources

https://www.newstalk.com/news/vaccines-available-luke-oneill-1091344

ILoveYourVibes

Sky King wrote: »

3 by year end, more in 2021 according to some (fairly reliable) sources

https://www.newstalk.com/news/vaccines-available-luke-oneill-1091344

What type of vaccine is it?

The development of a vaccine normally takes 10 to 15 years. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the aim is to develop a vaccine within one year. The ACCESS project will help to prepare Europe for this undertaking. RIVM is contributing to the feasibility analysis of an EU structure for COVID-19 vaccine monitoring, in collaboration with Lareb.

Bear in mind ....if it doesn't work ...its a vaccine in name only and it changes nothing for people.

Producing the least effective vaccine in history FAST is not very appealing.

JimToken

Is anyone here currently working on an antidote?

I think I know something that might work

Fairy liquid , bleach and the flu vaccine shot

ILoveYourVibes

JimToken wrote: »

Is anyone here currently working on an antidote?

I think I know something that might work

Fairy liquid , bleach and the flu vaccine shot

Im three for three!;)

Good point though ...i would expect someone here to be working on one somewhere. If its as well funded as our world leaders would say.

JimToken

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Im three for three!;)

Good point though ...i would expect someone here to be working on one somewhere. If its as well funded as our world leaders would say.

I meant anyone on boards as a side hobby

ILoveYourVibes

JimToken wrote: »

I meant anyone on boards as a side hobby

You might actually get someone working in a real lab on it if you wait around!

Gael23

What’s the story with Johnson & Johnson, are they back in business?

ILoveYourVibes

anyway i got my flu shot ...will hopefully get the pneumonia vaccine soon ....they wouldn't let me take it on the same day

And whenever the first covid vaccine i get that too.

ILoveYourVibes

Gael23 wrote: »

What’s the story with Johnson & Johnson, are they back in business?

As far as I know as of yesterday STILL on pause. Not releasing details.
Putting this in the hands of such companies ..has its downfalls. They are being so cagey. What type of vaccine is it? 'A NEW VACCINE MAM' *said in a mickey mouse voice*.

They say they hope to restart it soon ..etc etc. They prob will restart after a while.

walshb

What are chances that Xmas week, including day and up to new year will see is at L4/5 restriction?

ILoveYourVibes

I hope we all win the vaccine lottery.

Hmmzis

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

As far as I know as of yesterday STILL on pause. Not releasing details.
Putting this in the hands of such companies ..has its downfalls. They are being so cagey. What type of vaccine is it? 'A NEW VACCINE MAM' *said in a mickey mouse voice*.

They say they hope to restart it soon ..etc etc. They prob will restart after a while.

Here is the full list:
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines (pdf download).