COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

stephenjmcd

Le Bruise wrote: »

I believe the EU are trying to close deals with a further 4 vaccine suppliers (on top of the two you mention). Not sure how far along in the talks they are?

The J&J deal was done only in the last 10 days after initial agreement was reached end of August. Sanofi /GSK deal also concluded.

Initial agreement with Pfizer followed early in September so you'd imagine the final contract is almost there based on the J&J timeline from agreement to final deal singed. EU also in talks with Moderna according to reports.

Le Bruise

chrisbonnie wrote: »

At the risk of sounding like a baffoon.

Surely getting people to administer an injection must be the simplest part of the whole logistical process.

How many kids inject themselves for diabetes and don't get me started on junkies, and they certainly haven't got a steady hand.

As farcical as this sounds, you'd like to think they would have a drive through system much like the testing. You drive up, hop out, bish bash bosh.

Assume they mean training to administer en masse? Of course I can’t find where I read it now!!

You would hope drive through test centres, hospital car parks, pharmacies etc will all be used in the logistical roll out. My point was we’re hearing these things from the U.K., but not here! We’ll have to assume all these amazing plans are being put in behind the scenes....

Gael23

mandrake04 wrote: »

Yeah I did read that.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/pfizer-video-sparks-hope-covid19-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-december/news-story/83e8daef7e06b4799dbb1a6b1afed88e

Disappointing if true

Le Bruise

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The J&J deal was done only in the last 10 days after initial agreement was reached end of August. Sanofi /GSK deal also concluded.

Initial agreement with Pfizer followed early in September so you'd imagine the final contract is almost there based on the J&J timeline from agreement to final deal singed. EU also in talks with Moderna according to reports.

Brilliant. Was looking looking for a link but September was the last I could find. Didn’t know if there was updates since then.

Irish Stones

eastie17 wrote: »

Pfizers is due end of November, over 40K people in the test group.
Only issue with it is that it requires a cold chain supply chain and requires two shots. That makes it more difficult to distribute

How can a cold chain be a problem?
We all buy frozen food, that travels through a very cold chain, and not an issue has ever arisen.

mandrake04

chrisbonnie wrote: »

At the risk of sounding like a baffoon.

Surely getting people to administer an injection must be the simplest part of the whole logistical process.

How many kids inject themselves for diabetes and don't get me started on junkies, and they certainly haven't got a steady hand.

As farcical as this sounds, you'd like to think they would have a drive through system much like the testing. You drive up, hop out, bish bash bosh.

The problem with drive through is there is usually a 15 minute observation period for adverse reaction like anaphylactic shock, driving off into the sunset could be dangerous.

This was trialed with flu vaccine in Australia and required parking observation bays especially if people were alone in the car.

conor_mc

Indestructable wrote: »

I think this vaccine thread will need to be split like it is done on the weather forum for big events.

Technical information/news/data/facts in one thread.

Inane chat in another thread. I doubt if many people care about ill informed opinions on vaccinations, but if you feel the need to express yourself do so here.

It's only going to get worse as we progress towards approvals.

Like MT Cranium’s daily weather forecasts, I think hmmvis should have his own locked thread for proper scientific updates and his commentary.

“Well I won’t be taking any rushed vaccine” is becoming a bit repetitive and dull!

XsApollo

Irish Stones wrote: »

How can a cold chain be a problem?
We all buy frozen food, that travels through a very cold chain, and not an issue has ever arisen.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724

stephenjmcd

Le Bruise wrote: »

Brilliant. Was looking looking for a link but September was the last I could find. Didn’t know if there was updates since then.

Yeah I was having a look last night and there was silence on the J&J deal between agreement in principle and final contract signed.

The Pfizer deal is agreed in principle since September, no update on final contract signed but can't imagine based on J&J timeline that it'll take much longer given that EMA have the rolling review underway.

Government here is opted into the first 2 contracts the EU tied up with AstraZeneca & J&J so you'd imagine they'll just continue to opt into whatever deals the EU get.

Sky King

Gael23 wrote: »

Of the 100 million Pfizer vaccines available this year the UK claim they are getting 40 million. I doubt that’s true?

The only consolation is that it might sort out the basket case up north....

Irish Stones

XsApollo wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724

OK, but I don't think it's a big problem to make thousands -100°C freezers. We are able to reach the absolute zero in certain contexts.

Anyway I think that if something is so critical for its storage, then something is wrong with it.

Gael23

Sky King wrote: »

The only consolation is that it might sort out the basket case up north....

But then there’s only 60 million for the rest of the world. That’s before the US get any. Read somewhere else they want to buy the entire supply from AZ this year

mandrake04

Gael23 wrote: »

But then there’s only 60 million for the rest of the world. That’s before the US get any. Read somewhere else they want to buy the entire supply from AZ this year

Pfizer will be manufactured in USA at Kalamazoo, Andover and St Louis. It probably wont leave the US...at least in the near future.

The rest will probably be manufactured in Belgium.

Gael23

mandrake04 wrote: »

Pfizer will be manufactured in USA at Kalamazoo, Andover and St Louis. It probably wont leave the US...at least in the near future.

The rest will probably be manufactured in Belgium.

Didn’t know that. So it will take even longer for them to fill the EU order

stephenjmcd

mandrake04 wrote: »

Pfizer will be manufactured in USA at Kalamazoo, Andover and St Louis. It probably wont leave the US...at least in the near future.

The rest will probably be manufactured in Belgium.

The EU supply is to be manufactured out of Germany and Belgium as per Pfizer

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

Didn’t know that. So it will take even longer for them to fill the EU order

Separate manufacturering sites for US & EU

drunkmonkey

If the BCG vaccine is only in stage 3 trials with results not expected for a year how is it possible to have any other vaccine within a shorter timeframe seen as that one started in march.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/brazil-tests-tuberculosis-vaccine-against-covid-19/

Gael23

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Separate manufacturering sites for US & EU

Is the suggested 100 million this year between both sites or 100m each?

Sweet.Science

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If the BCG vaccine is only in stage 3 trials with results not expected for a year how is it possible to have any other vaccine within a shorter timeframe seen as that one started in march.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/brazil-tests-tuberculosis-vaccine-against-covid-19/

I would guess there isn't the resources for every single vaccine to be reviewed thoroughly . Some will take preference

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If the BCG vaccine is only in stage 3 trials with results not expected for a year how is it possible to have any other vaccine within a shorter timeframe seen as that one started in march.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/brazil-tests-tuberculosis-vaccine-against-covid-19/

That research is going on in multiple countries. India have been working on it too.

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

Is the suggested 100 million this year between both sites or 100m each?

All here, its 100m worldwide by end of 2020 with similar each month of which EU total is 200m rising to 300m.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-potentially-supply-eu-200-million-doses

The UK deal is 30m doses in total 2020 & 2021.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-agreement-united-kingdom-30

Le Bruise

stephenjmcd wrote: »

All here, its 100m worldwide by end of 2020 with similar each month of which EU total is 200m rising to 300m.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-potentially-supply-eu-200-million-doses

The UK deal is 30m doses in total 2020 & 2021.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-agreement-united-kingdom-30

That alone should see all EU vulnerable/frontline vaccinated in Q1-Q2 of 2021. 100 million per month is incredible output.....and that's just one vaccine.

FintanMcluskey

stephenjmcd wrote: »

All here, its 100m worldwide by end of 2020 with similar each month of which EU total is 200m rising to 300m.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-potentially-supply-eu-200-million-doses

The UK deal is 30m doses in total 2020 & 2021.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-agreement-united-kingdom-30

Why is this not more publicly know?

Why is this not the focus of Ireland’s roadmap for Covid?

astrofool

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If the BCG vaccine is only in stage 3 trials with results not expected for a year how is it possible to have any other vaccine within a shorter timeframe seen as that one started in march.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/brazil-tests-tuberculosis-vaccine-against-covid-19/

It's also looking for different results, they think BCG activates the immune system reducing the seriousness of the illness, rather than providing immunity to SARS-COV-2 specifically, so you're looking for improved outcomes, rather than elimination of a disease.

It's also a vaccine that's already available (most Irish people have had it, and results of a test may recommend a booster for many) and isn't being tested for safety, but efficacy. It's less of a priority than other vaccines in development, but may be useful for other disease outbreaks.

astrofool

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why is this not more publicly know?

Why is this not the focus of Ireland’s roadmap for Covid?

It will only become part of the roadmap when the results are known, and supply/distribution numbers have been then figured out.

We're in a dynamic situation, the only certainty is that in 3 months time the plan will be different, but we don't know what that plan will be today.

hmmm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why is this not more publicly know?

Why is this not the focus of Ireland’s roadmap for Covid?

I don't think anyone wants to stick their neck out and say the vaccines will work until the results are released. The tone has changed in the UK only this week - until now it's been "they hopefully will work" but in the past week it has become "get the logistics in place it's happening".

Le Bruise

hmmm wrote: »

I don't think anyone wants to stick their neck out and say the vaccines will work until the results are released. The tone has changed in the UK only this week - until now it's been "they hopefully will work" but in the past week it has become "get the logistics in place it's happening".

I would assume it's because Ireland aren't developing a vaccine and so aren't privy to what's really happening with the trials? Obviously some top brass in the UK have been given a behind the scenes look at the Oxford vaccine this week and have liked what they've seen!

Micky 32

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why is this not more publicly know?

Why is this not the focus of Ireland’s roadmap for Covid?

Maybe because it’s not misery or doom and gloom enough.

snotboogie

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why is this not more publicly know?

Why is this not the focus of Ireland’s roadmap for Covid?

Because the government and official Ireland have constantly been a few months behind whats happening internationally. The comments from Michael Martin about 2021 were terribly timed and don't match with the current best estimates for getting out of this. The message in April should have been clear that 2020 was almost certainly a write off, instead there was a tacit implication that things would go back to normal after the initial lockdown, despite there being no plan at all for how this would be facilitated. That was the time to prepare the public. Instead, when public morale is at an all time low, they declare 2021 a write off, despite the previous week being arguably the most positive for vaccine news since the virus took hold.

cgc5483

Le Bruise wrote: »

I would assume it's because Ireland aren't developing a vaccine and so aren't privy to what's really happening with the trials? Obviously some top brass in the UK have been given a behind the scenes look at the Oxford vaccine this week and have liked what they've seen!

It's a double blinded study. They can't have unblinded the data until the study completes meaning they have no idea who got the vaccine or who got placebo and simply can't know if its effective or not. They are obviously just gambling that the trial will meet its primary objective

Gael23

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

based on what exactly?

Gael23

ACitizenErased wrote: »

based on what exactly?

The timeline for delivery of vaccines. It will be well i to 2021 before a significant portion of the population are vaccinated

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

The timeline for delivery of vaccines. It will be well i to 2021 before a significant portion of the population are vaccinated

It doesnt really matter as long as the vulnerable are vaccinated

Sky King

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

VG31

Sky King wrote: »

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

Sky King

VG31 wrote: »

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

That would be great. Jaysis a week in the sun would be just

Hmmzis

This is an interesting little study using a killed bacteria that activates TLR2:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20214965v1.full.pdf+html

The one thing that does pop out there is that the controls had a higher fraction of males in it. Though the differences in the outcomes are still significant (controls had 30 confirmed infections with 4 moderate cases while the treatment group had 1 mild case).

More on what TLR2 does in regards to immune responses:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00079/full

If this isn't a "green jelly bean" effect it might not be the worst idea to give this to nursing home and hospital staff while waiting on vaccines to get through the trials.

sekond

mandrake04 wrote: »

The problem with drive through is there is usually a 15 minute observation period for adverse reaction like anaphylactic shock, driving off into the sunset could be dangerous.

This was trialed with flu vaccine in Australia and required parking observation bays especially if people were alone in the car.

Some of the vaccines that are usually given in schools around this time (i.e. HPV vaccine for 1st years) are being given in the public health centres.

My daughter had hers yesterday. Drove up, made ourselves known to staff waiting outside, waited in car until we were phoned. She went inside for vaccination, while I waited outside. She got the vaccine, waited for 15 minutes inside and then came back out. Fairly efficient, and there seemed to be a relatively steady stream of people in and out.

Not quite as fast as drive through, but seemed pretty well organised and might well be a model that works as a next-best-thing.

Tenzor07

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It doesnt really matter as long as the vulnerable are vaccinated

As you say if you only vaccinate the Vulnerable groups you still have to isolate them and/or keep minimal contacts, they can still catch the virus from those around them who won't get the first round of vaccinations..may not cause them to be at a high risk level of death but some still may require hospitalisation...

Plus you still have the vast majority of the population at risk of contracting the virus, and with a large portion of the over 50's with one or two underlying health conditions the cases and hospitalisations will still stay high for younger people..

Harry Palmr

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

he UK currently has among the highest national coverage of flu vaccine in the world, vaccinating around 75% of the over-65s against flu every year; most countries either do worse or have no vaccination programmes for older people. It is reasonable to expect that this level of coverage could be achieved for a Covid-19 vaccine in that age group in the UK.

Therefore, if the Covid-19 vaccine is 75% effective – meaning that 75% of those vaccinated become immune – then we would actually only protect 56% of that target population (75% of 75%). This would not be enough to stop the virus circulating. Almost half of our highest risk group would remain susceptible, and we won’t know who they are. Relaxing social distancing rules when facing those risks seems a bit like Russian roulette.

Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%). Just to make matters worse, regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency have said that they would accept a 50% lower level for efficacy for candidate Covid-19 vaccines. If that efficacy level is fulfilled, we have to multiply coverage by 50% efficacy, not 75%, and suddenly it all gets more concerning.

Le Bruise

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

The first line of that piece.......'For those holding on to hope of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine, the news this weekend that the first could be rolled out as early as “just after Christmas” will have likely lifted the spirits'........

We can't be having that, so here I am with an opinion piece to crush those spirits!!

charlie14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

So if he is correct on a vaccination that provides immunity then that would mean 56% of the vulnerable population are protected and over 1/3 of the rest of the population.
Sound a lot better than we have right now which is a big fat 0%
From that article it appears he is not highlighting a problem with a vaccine, Rather the numbers who might not avail of it.

AdamD

VG31 wrote: »

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

I think it would be a fairly strenous test of the public's patience to not have the country more open next summer..

polesheep

Sky King wrote: »

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

Once they begin vaccinating people normality will return like a rock going down a hill. There will be no point in trying to tell people that the vaccination of the vulnerable doesn't mean that it's safe for everyone to go back to normal. This may be the reason why the authorities here are reluctant to talk about a vaccine.

Gael23

polesheep wrote: »

Once they begin vaccinating people normality will return like a rock going down a hill. There will be no point in trying to tell people that the vaccination of the vulnerable doesn't mean that it's safe for everyone to go back to normal. This may be the reason why the authorities here are reluctant to talk about a vaccine.

This is a flavour of reality

plodder

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

Even if what he is saying is correct that couldn't be used as a justification to maintain strict controls any longer than otherwise necessary. If vulnerable people are offered the vaccine and they choose not to take it then that's their look out.

Sky King

Sky King wrote: »

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

Sconsey

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

It's an interesting read but there is one part I am having trouble going along with

Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%).

The flu vaccine is one thing, but a Covid vaccine would surely attract more than 50% of the at risk under 65's? I think this guy is painting a worst case scenario. I think way more than 50% of the at risk people will take up a Covid vaccine.

irishgeo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

The flu doesn't require people to stay in their houses. Life still goes on. I'd say the take up for the covid vaccine might be higher than the flu vaccine in the elderly population of it means the end of isolation.