COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Irish Stones

Kate Bingham, chair of the UK government’s Vaccine Taskforce, warns that the first generation of vaccine, if ever available, might be not perfect, and we should not rely our strategy on the vaccine alone.

https://scroll.in/latest/976980/coronavirus-first-generation-of-vaccines-is-likely-to-be-imperfect-says-uk-official

timsey tiger

Irish Stones wrote: »

Do you think we will have to produce sort of a "vaccine passport" in order to travel with fewer or no limitations?
Something like the rabies passport for pets across Europe?

I don't think that anything like this will ever arise. This is the EU not North Korea.

Irish Stones

timsey tiger wrote: »

I don't think that anything like this will ever arise. This is the EU not North Korea.

I agree with you, but what if one wants to travel outside EU? Could they ask you a proof of vaccination in order to get access to their country and avoid isolation?

johnire

I do agree with you but I really do think that the original poster has a very good point. I definitely think that travel insurance policies are going to exclude Covid 19 as standard and if you want cover for it it'll be an extra. Perhaps not in the E.U. but in other countries it's very possible that they won't allow a person into the country who hasn't been vaccinated.

timsey tiger wrote: »

I don't think that anything like this will ever arise. This is the EU not North Korea.

7aubzxk43m2sni

I think what might happen would be the introduction of a non mandatory 'vaccine passport'.

If you choose to get one after being vaccinated, then you produce it when arriving at an airport, and you don't have to quarantine/get tested.

If you choose not to use one, you have to get tested upon arrival and quarantine until the test results are back

holdyerhorses

Karina Fancy Thumbnail wrote: »

I think what might happen would be the introduction of a non mandatory 'vaccine passport'.

If you choose to get one after being vaccinated, then you produce it when arriving at an airport, and you don't have to quarantine/get tested.

If you choose not to use one, you have to get tested upon arrival and quarantine until the test results are back

If the goal for those imposing a vaccine passport was to prevent the passing of the virus that leads to covid19, then I would argue they are ignorant of the science, given they're non sterilising. At this point youd have to assume that a vaccine passport would be implemented as a political measure rather than a medical or scientific one.

And those that are vaccinated would still need to quarantine and be tested under the suggestion in that last paragraph.

hmmm

Karina Fancy Thumbnail wrote: »

I think what might happen would be the introduction of a non mandatory 'vaccine passport'.

If you choose to get one after being vaccinated, then you produce it when arriving at an airport, and you don't have to quarantine/get tested.

If you choose not to use one, you have to get tested upon arrival and quarantine until the test results are back

A Yellow fever vaccine passport is required for some countries. I expect Covid will be no different - why would you take the risk of allowing unvaccinated people into your country?

I doubt quarantine will be an option for travel once a vaccination is available. No vaccination = no travel.

Airlines are already experimenting with rapid testing.
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/927334455/can-pre-flight-covid-19-testing-get-travelers-back-on-planes

hmmm

Good article on vaccine supplies expected in 2021, and which countries have pre-purchased which vaccines:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3107262/production-covid-19-vaccine-could-top-16-billion-doses-delivery

"Of the 12 billion projected or planned doses the Yellow House tallied in September for production by the end of next year, only a third to a half might actually materialise, they forecast after taking into account historical failure rates in vaccine development for clinical trials, as well as possible setbacks when boosting production."

holdyerhorses

hmmm wrote: »

A Yellow fever vaccine passport is required for some countries. I expect Covid will be no different - why would you take the risk of allowing unvaccinated people into your country?

I doubt quarantine will be an option for travel once a vaccination is available. No vaccination = no travel.

Airlines are already experimenting with rapid testing.

But it's a pointless endeavour, the vaccine candidates put limits on the disease, not the spread of the virus.

A country, concerned about risk, would be better served convincing its citizens to take any of the candidates should they be successful.

is_that_so

Karina Fancy Thumbnail wrote: »

I think what might happen would be the introduction of a non mandatory 'vaccine passport'.

If you choose to get one after being vaccinated, then you produce it when arriving at an airport, and you don't have to quarantine/get tested.

If you choose not to use one, you have to get tested upon arrival and quarantine until the test results are back

More likely to see the implementation of quick testing technology instead, backed by PCR and possibly quarantine than this type of potential diplomatic incident stuff.

holdyerhorses

is_that_so wrote: »

More likely to see the implementation of quick testing technology instead, backed by PCR and possibly quarantine than this type of potential diplomatic incident stuff.

And also, tourism, are countries reliant on tourism for exports, likely to impose restrictions, to prevent travellers needing public health resources in their home country, I would doubt it.

Yellow fever vaccines are generally recommended for travellers from places with high transmission rates, enough vaccination in a destination and home country would negate any vaccine passport need extremely quickly. Complete red herring I think.

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Good article on vaccine supplies expected in 2021, and which countries have pre-purchased which vaccines:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3107262/production-covid-19-vaccine-could-top-16-billion-doses-delivery

"Of the 12 billion projected or planned doses the Yellow House tallied in September for production by the end of next year, only a third to a half might actually materialise, they forecast after taking into account historical failure rates in vaccine development for clinical trials, as well as possible setbacks when boosting production."

Those are some serious amounts, even with some failing, it would still bode well for the pandemic to be under control some time next year in most parts of the world.

JacksonHeightsOwn

Irish Stones wrote: »

Kate Bingham, chair of the UK government’s Vaccine Taskforce, warns that the first generation of vaccine, if ever available, might be not perfect, and we should not rely our strategy on the vaccine alone.

https://scroll.in/latest/976980/coronavirus-first-generation-of-vaccines-is-likely-to-be-imperfect-says-uk-official

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

holdyerhorses

chrisbonnie wrote: »

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

It was a bit naive and ignorant of governments to have that as their primary strategy from the get-go, as well.

hmmm

holdyerhorses wrote: »

But it's a pointless endeavour, the vaccine candidates put limits on the disease, not the spread of the virus.

Again, not proven and until phase 3 results are released we won't know the extent of protection.

holdyerhorses

hmmm wrote: »

Again, not proven and until phase 3 results are released we won't know the extent of protection.

What's not proven? Any efficacy? Of course. But their primary goal is to reduce disease, not transmission. And if so, then an even more pointless endeavour endeavour saying things like "no vaccination = no travel"

JacksonHeightsOwn

holdyerhorses wrote: »

It was a bit naive and ignorant of governments to have that as their primary strategy from the get-go, as well.

Totally, id like to think if these vaccines don't work, and we can't mass test like they do in China, then the country would take the zero covid approach, but I can't see them doing it. Unfortunately

holdyerhorses

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Totally, id like to think if these vaccines don't work, and we can't mass test like they do in China, then the country would take the zero covid approach, but I can't see them doing it. Unfortunately

The ship has sailed. Vaccinations, treatments, healthcare capacity, being "comfortable" with the extra morbitity/mortality and were back to normal.

hmmm

holdyerhorses wrote: »

What's not proven? Any efficacy? Of course. But their primary goal is to reduce disease, not transmission. And if so, then an even more pointless endeavour endeavour saying things like "no vaccination = no travel"

We'll have to just wait and see what the results of testing are.

It's pretty obvious that we are going to see testing before flights at some point next year, and countries will make their own decisions as to whether they want to let unvaccinated people in. Some of the poorer tourism-dependent countries might decide it's worth the risk, but I doubt anywhere wealthy is going to welcome them and risk starting new outbreaks in their own country.

holdyerhorses

hmmm wrote: »

We'll have to just wait and see what the results of testing are.

It's pretty obvious that we are going to see testing before flights at some point next year, and countries will make their own decisions as to whether they want to let unvaccinated people in. Some of the poorer tourism-dependent countries might decide it's worth the risk, but I doubt anywhere wealthy is going to welcome them and risk starting new outbreaks in their own country.

If a wealthy country has enough people vaccinated, and the vaccine is a preventer of disease, then it doesn't need to worry about outbreaks, they wont happen.

snotboogie

chrisbonnie wrote: »

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

Huge parts of Asia tbf. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea are all going for a form of zero covid. Basically every country in Asia Pac who can afford to do it, aside from Japan, are.

hmmm

holdyerhorses wrote: »

If a wealthy country has enough people vaccinated, and the vaccine is a preventer of disease, then it doesn't need to worry about outbreaks, they wont happen.

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

holdyerhorses

hmmm wrote: »

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

Agreed on the agreeing to disagree. The throwing the doors open, I think is a mischaracterisation, I'm sure they'll weigh it up and communicate the tradeoffs

Thierry12

hmmm wrote: »

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

If you vaccinate the people that get sick

The 50+ age group

Does it matter if unvaccinated come into the country?

They are not going to kill people as the young don't die from this.

This will be an adult only vaccine for a long time imo

hmmm

Eli Lilly to supply 300,000 doses of its antibody treatment to the US for $300 million. Not cheap!
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-agreement-us-government-supply-300000-vials

"Lilly anticipates manufacturing up to one million doses of bamlanivimab 700 mg by the end of 2020 – with 100,000 doses ready to ship within days of authorization – for use around the world. The supply of Lilly's antibody therapy is expected to increase substantially beginning in Q1 2021, as additional manufacturing resources come online throughout the year."

Thierry12

hmmm wrote: »

Eli Lilly to supply 300,000 doses of its antibody treatment to the US for $300 million. Not cheap!
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-agreement-us-government-supply-300000-vials

"Lilly anticipates manufacturing up to one million doses of bamlanivimab 700 mg by the end of 2020 – with 100,000 doses ready to ship within days of authorization – for use around the world. The supply of Lilly's antibody therapy is expected to increase substantially beginning in Q1 2021, as additional manufacturing resources come online throughout the year."

Doesn't even work?

No use to hospitalised they said

Have to take it onset

timsey tiger

Thierry12 wrote: »

Doesn't even work?

No use to hospitalised they said

Have to take it onset

I guess they are wasting their shareholders money so. Serves them right for investing in big pharma, wha?

hmmm

Thierry12 wrote: »

Have to take it onset

It made sense that it wouldn't provide much benefit at the point where patients were very sick, I get the impression it was a disappointing result but not a surprise.

There's a separate trial for earlier administration where it would be very surprising if it didn't have an effect. Trump got his Regeneron cocktail very early.

jackboy

timsey tiger wrote: »

I guess they are wasting their shareholders money so. Serves them right for investing in big pharma, wha?

Just because it doesn’t work does not mean that they will not sell it. The US government may have already agreed to buy it. Same applies to some of the vaccines in development. The companies will not be paying for those if things do not work out.

hmmm

So much misinformation to be tackled.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1321514907536338944

timsey tiger

jackboy wrote: »

Just because it doesn’t work does not mean that they will not sell it. The US government may have already agreed to buy it. Same applies to some of the vaccines in development. The companies will not be paying for those if things do not work out.

They won't make much of a profit on one batch, you said it yourself.

MerlinSouthDub

hmmm wrote: »

So much misinformation to be tackled.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1321514907536338944

The daily telegraph had this story as its main front page headline yesterday. Extraordinary stuff. I know the telegraph has become a bit of rag, but I assumed (wrongly) that some basic journalistic standards were still applied. The decline in reliable news sources is, I feel, one of the great problems of our time.

Gael23

What is considered good efficacy for a vaccine?

hmmm

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates-that-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-significantly-reduced-virus-levels-and-need-for-further-medical-attention-301162255.html

"There was a 1.08 log greater reduction with REGN-COV2 treatment by day 5, which corresponds to REGN-COV2 patients having, on average, a greater than 10-fold reduction in viral load, compared to placebo."

"Treatment with REGN-COV2 reduced COVID-19 related medical visits by 72% in patients with one or more risk factor (including being over 50 years of age; body mass index greater than 30; cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease; or immunocompromised status) (combined dose groups; nominal p = 0.0065)."

ShineOn7

hmmm wrote: »

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

Why is supply limited?

It's working very well. They should be moving mountains to increase production

hmmm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why is supply limited?

It's working very well. They should be moving mountains to increase production

Failure of leadership. Regeneron aren't a charity, Governments needed to pay for this capability.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1321562769603338241

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates-that-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-significantly-reduced-virus-levels-and-need-for-further-medical-attention-301162255.html

"There was a 1.08 log greater reduction with REGN-COV2 treatment by day 5, which corresponds to REGN-COV2 patients having, on average, a greater than 10-fold reduction in viral load, compared to placebo."

"Treatment with REGN-COV2 reduced COVID-19 related medical visits by 72% in patients with one or more risk factor (including being over 50 years of age; body mass index greater than 30; cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease; or immunocompromised status) (combined dose groups; nominal p = 0.0065)."

They would be of incredible utility in nursing homes and any long term care facility. The moment any one resident or carer tests positive, all residents get a shot of this.
The other use would be in cancer patients undergoing active treatment.
With enough doses Covid ward personell could be protected before vaccines arrive.

Real shame the doses are what they are.

hmmm

Hmmzis wrote: »

They would be of incredible utility in nursing homes and any long term care facility. The moment any one resident or carer tests positive, all residents get a shot of this.
The other use would be in cancer patients undergoing active treatment.
With enough doses Covid ward personell could be protected before vaccines arrive.

Real shame the doses are what they are.

Any idea how durable the antibodies you'd receive would be? i.e. if you get a shot of this how long could you be expected to produce a robust immune response.

Roche are apparently responsible for manufacturing it in Europe.

Voltex

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea how durable the antibodies you'd receive would be? i.e. if you get a shot of this how long could you be expected to produce a robust immune response.

Roche are apparently responsible for manufacturing it in Europe.

Half-life is roughly 1 month.

cgc5483

That's a press release from the company and whilst numbers like 72% and 57%sound great when you look at the real data the placebo group only had 6.5% medical visits versus 2.8% in treatment. Definition of a medical visit is quite wide ranging as well. Shows some promise but again probably only very early stage disease works best.

holdyerhorses

Thierry12 wrote: »

If you vaccinate the people that get sick

The 50+ age group

Does it matter if unvaccinated come into the country?

They are not going to kill people as the young don't die from this.

This will be an adult only vaccine for a long time imo

This is the key point with current candidates. None of then will be sterilising. Their goal is to prevent the disease/illness. If that goal is met, then you can take any talk of mandatory vaccinations, passports etc off the table, their desire is then purely political, as once a person is vaccinated, they will become less of a burden on healthcare capacity.

If one of the current most likely candidates is successfull, it, plus treatments, and no mandates or passports, and we will be back to pre 2020 normality very quickly.

tobefrank321

hmmm wrote: »

So much misinformation to be tackled.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1321514907536338944

Its obvious immunity is reasonably long lasting, on average at least a year, otherwise China and Italy in particular would have seen substantial reinfections by now, in the thousands or tens of thousands. This fact is oddly ignored by those who say you can be reinfected within months. While theoretically possible, the odds are millions to one.

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea how durable the antibodies you'd receive would be? i.e. if you get a shot of this how long could you be expected to produce a robust immune response.

Roche are apparently responsible for manufacturing it in Europe.

As Voltex said, about a month, two tops. To go longer the Fc interacting tail needs to be choped off (AZ are in phase 3 of their version of that). They're passive antibodies, so the patients own immune response would not get involved, or at least not much (the nose would still be a trouble area as not much IgG can get there from plasma).

BorneTobyWilde

If Biden gets in a vaccine would take years, Trump for his faults get things done fast. More tests than anyone, more ventilators ect.

Biden would never have got those ventilators built from scratch,

theguzman

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden gets in a vaccine would take years, Trump for his faults get things done fast. More tests than anyone, more ventilators ect.

Biden would never have got those ventilators built from scratch,

Biden is not cut out for this anymore, why didn't he run 4 years ago instead the Dems left Hillary go as if it was her turn, same with Biden as if it was his turn. Once Trump leaves office in January 2025 I can see Ted Cruz getting elected for the GOP.

tobefrank321

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden gets in a vaccine would take years, Trump for his faults get things done fast. More tests than anyone, more ventilators ect.

Biden would never have got those ventilators built from scratch,

Luckily most Americans disagree with your opinion.

polesheep

Thierry12 wrote: »

If you vaccinate the people that get sick

The 50+ age group

Does it matter if unvaccinated come into the country?

They are not going to kill people as the young don't die from this.

This will be an adult only vaccine for a long time imo

Jebus, it's getting younger by the day.

polesheep

theguzman wrote: »

Biden is not cut out for this anymore, why didn't he run 4 years ago instead the Dems left Hillary go as if it was her turn, same with Biden as if it was his turn. Once Trump leaves office in January 2025 I can see Ted Cruz getting elected for the GOP.

Trump is finished. Biden looks as though he might not see out the four years of his term.

Thierry12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its obvious immunity is reasonably long lasting, on average at least a year, otherwise China and Italy in particular would have seen substantial reinfections by now, in the thousands or tens of thousands. This fact is oddly ignored by those who say you can be reinfected within months. While theoretically possible, the odds are millions to one.

Wouldn't be so sure

China has no Covid for a long time and Italy had it almost eradicated in the summer, ****ed now though, chances of being reinfected weren't high.

An interesting expirement was done by an eastern european scientist on that reinfection theory

He got infected with Covid in Feb/March, got pretty sick but didn't need hospital treatment

He then deliberately tried to catch Covid again to check immunity timespan, going into Covid patient wards monthly

He checked his antibody level monthly in April, May, June, July etc, after 4 months it fell pretty quickly he noted

He got reinfected in August I believe and spent 6 days in hospital, his reinfection was much worse and happened when antibody level was almost non existent

His conclusion was immunity doesn't last long if exposed to the virus frequently and vaccinating every 6 months will have massive issues

Thierry12

holdyerhorses wrote: »

This is the key point with current candidates. None of then will be sterilising. Their goal is to prevent the disease/illness. If that goal is met, then you can take any talk of mandatory vaccinations, passports etc off the table, their desire is then purely political, as once a person is vaccinated, they will become less of a burden on healthcare capacity.

If one of the current most likely candidates is successfull, it, plus treatments, and no mandates or passports, and we will be back to pre 2020 normality very quickly.

Exactly

1st gen vaccines make you asymptomatic

Good news like your implying is people that are asymptomatic in general anyway like children/young healthy adults won't need the vaccine

Vaccinate older adults and your game