CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

It's certainly an 'out there' theory. The Oxford guys are claiming the UK shouldn't even be under lockdown as Covid has been widespread in the country for months (!)

If these Oxford guys genuinely think half of Britain has already contracted this virus then a simply antibody test on a small sample study of a few dozen random citizens would back up their bold claims

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group at Oxford University believe coronavirus has been circulating in the UK since at least mid-January.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Little suggestion for anyone posting links to premium content - use http://archive.ph/ so we can all read it

GT89

The EUs silence on this absolutely startling. Brexit is beginning to look like a very wise move perhaps pointless though as the EU will likely be irelevant when this is all over as countries will want to take their borders back.

smelly sock

Strazdas wrote: »

It's certainly an 'out there' theory. The Oxford guys are claiming the UK shouldn't even be under lockdown as Covid has been widespread in the country for months (!)

Covid19 imo has been around for 3-4 months. There was a bug doing the rounds that i had with all the symptoms of covid

threeball

threeball wrote: »

It makes no sense that they wouldn't have deaths til March if that was the case. Worrying that a university professor can not see the obvious flaws in his thinking.

The deaths are largely because of overcrowded hospitals. During the beginning stages, if you got it, you had a far higher chance of surviving than you do now.

So it does actually make sense. And deaths before this was a "thing" would have been put down as pneumonia etc.

davedanon

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Yes worse ever, needed two courses of steroids and antibiotics to finally clear, I'm asthmatic but never had that bad

Just curious. Why weren't you treated with antivirals, since flu is viral?

fritzelly

iguana wrote: »

Ok, so I went back and started reading some of the earlier threads. And back on thread two there was a little speculation about the really bad flu that was going around at Christmas with very, very similar symptoms to Covid-19. So out of curiosity I started googling and lots of countries were either reporting an unexpectedly early and large flu surge from December 27-31st 2019 or, like Malaysia denying claims they were experiencing a surge in flu cases.
...

If that was the case then the health systems across the world would have noticed all these people requiring ICU's
They also do plenty of tests to verify if people do have flu
So the theory is out the window - it was just a bad strain of flu

wakka12

threeball wrote: »

It makes no sense that they wouldn't have deaths til March if that was the case. Worrying that a university professor can not see the obvious flaws in his thinking.

Yeh I dont get it either. Like I heard people say its been circulating in Italy for months..undected...then suddenly when they start testing in February and find out there are a lot of cases it just so happens there are so many severe cases the entire country's hospitals become full in a week and thousands of people die in a matter of days? It seems like a ridiculous theory to me

frillyleaf

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

You're completely wrong there unfortunately. Check the HSE website. You are not supposed to go for walks alone if you are self isolating.

I understood this as not being able to go for walks too

tuxy

smelly sock wrote: »

Covid19 imo has been around for 3-4 months. There was a bug doing the rounds that i had with all the symptoms of covid

Is that the really bad one that was doing the rounds in Ireland that was confirmed to be a strain of influenza?

If COVID-19 was in Ireland back then the ICU's would be overflowing months ago.

bekker

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I think some strain of CoronaVirus was in Ireland in December January, that flu was brutal and strong

Were you referring to SARS2-COVID-19 or 'flu.

Coronaviruses are a large family of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses capable of infecting humans and a number of animal species. In humans, coronaviruses may cause a range of illnesses from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

JP Liz V1

davedanon wrote: »

Just curious. Why weren't you treated with antivirals, since flu is viral?

Sorry excuse my ignorance is that not antibiotics if not what is antivirals?

Corkgirl20

On South China morning post , it says that 43,000 in China tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms. These people were not included in the number of confirmed cases in China (81,000).
Seems a bit odd that 1/3 of the population had no symptoms.
Does anybody have any info if the asymptotic people can still pass it onto others ? Can they later get the virus with symptoms or are they immune?

I know nobody probably has the answers, I’m just trying to work this out in my head.

Mwengwe

frillyleaf wrote: »

I understood this as not being able to go for walks too

I think the NHS guidelines are more relaxed on this, may be where the confusion lies.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/TheGlare_TM/status/1242524564011257857

frillyleaf

Ace2007 wrote: »

Why - someone else whose child is in posted that it was true

Why would parents not be allowed in with kids if this is true?

lbj666

YFlyer wrote: »

I like the ole drink. Joke about it. Don't see it essential.

It not essential , just imagine the scene if the offies were to shut indefinitely tonight at 10:00pm. Thats the only reason theyll stay open.

Widdensushi

YFlyer wrote: »

Any proof?

that people died or that it was another strain of flu ?The exact strain was given in another thread in a convincing post, I can't remember which thread but it's a post I chose to believe

threeball

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The deaths are largely because of overcrowded hospitals. During the beginning stages, if you got it, you had a far higher chance of surviving than you do now.

So it does actually make sense. And deaths before this was a "thing" would have been put down as pneumonia etc.

In that case why is it decimating Italy but had no real traction here and only kicking off in the UK. If it's here since December and it only originated in late November how is Italy so far ahead.

They also know exactly the origin of the Italian infection and the problems spiralled from there. It's not plausible to say it's been around almost 4 months and no one noticed.

frillyleaf

murpho999 wrote: »

It's not really. Your statement is untrue. See below.



So how do you explain that. Travel abroad means Irish people who went abroad and came home and we can't stop that.

I doubt that there's many foreigners coming in.

Business meetings are cancelled, hotels are empty, tourist attractions shut down, Patrick's Day was cancelled.

No reason for people to come here.
Also they're staying at home too.

The claims about foreigners and shutting down airports is just xenophobia.

People were still coming to Ireland up until last weekend. Flights were full from America for example

MipMap

smelly sock wrote: »

Covid19 imo has been around for 3-4 months. There was a bug doing the rounds that i had with all the symptoms of covid

Every winter there is a "Bad Dose" going around. That is why everyone over 60 gets a flu jab.

Widdensushi

frillyleaf wrote: »

People were still coming to Ireland up until last weekend. Flights were full from America for example

be careful or trump will be calling it the Irish flu

JP Liz V1

bekker wrote: »

Were you referring to SARS2-COVID-19 or 'flu.

Coronaviruses are a large family of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses capable of infecting humans and a number of animal species. In humans, coronaviruses may cause a range of illnesses from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Is there many strains of CoronaVirus? Is Sars and Covid19 different strains?

I'm confusing myself more now

davedanon

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sorry excuse my ignorance is that not antibiotics if not what is antivirals?

Antibiotics are only for infections, caused by bacteria. They don't work on viruses.
I'm asthmatic as well, so I can appreciate the need for steroids. I was just curious about the anti-b's.

MipMap

Widdensushi wrote: »

be careful or trump will be calling it the Irish flu

fcking Shamrock

dePeatrick

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Yes worse ever, needed two courses of steroids and antibiotics to finally clear, I'm asthmatic but never had that bad

Interesting, GPs in Wuhan and Northern Italy have been saying that they had been seeing a particularly aggressive type of pneumonia in patients for three months before Coronavirus was identified.

JP Liz V1

MipMap wrote: »

Every winter there is a "Bad Dose" going around. That is why everyone over 60 gets a flu jab.

I'm not 60 but got seasonal flu jab and also a pneumonia jab but still got a really bad flu which now I think was a bad strain of a Coronavirus

darjeeling

iguana wrote: »

Ok, so I went back and started reading some of the earlier threads. And back on thread two there was a little speculation about the really bad flu that was going around at Christmas with very, very similar symptoms to Covid-19. So out of curiosity I started googling and lots of countries were either reporting an unexpectedly early and large flu surge from December 27-31st 2019 or, like Malaysia denying claims they were experiencing a surge in flu cases.

If Corononavirus was spreading in China from some point in November but not detected until the last week of January. Is it really so impossible that what was being assumed was a surge in flu cases on December 27th in the UK, Ireland and the US was at least in part an early spread of Covid 19? Were we really having an 'especially severe' flu outbreak in many regions of the world where "An early start to the season has left 2,092 people in England needing treatment for the contagious virus so far in 2019. By comparison, there were just 256 hospital admissions with flu at the same point 12 months ago." Right at the same time as a global pandemic of a virus which presents with flu like symptoms was already underway for several weeks?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-hospitals-breaking-point-after-21172185
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7810129/Flu-cases-EIGHT-TIMES-higher-point-UK-winter.html
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/video/639365
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/12/552217/influenza-infections-still-within-normal-parameters-says-health-dg
https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/

I've posted about this before in one or two of these threads, and I don't think it's possible that it was here before mid-Jan for several different reasons.


1) The reports of flu-like illness (red lines below) correlated perfectly with detected influenza viruses (bars) over the flu season, just like previous years.
It's only in the last two weeks that flu symptoms are increasing while detected flu is decreasing (circled).



2) There are now over a thousand complete viral genome sequences from patients all over the world, all showing mutations that pick up over time.
Tracking back computationally to find the common ancestor of all of them shows that it's genomes from China, including Wuhan, that are at the origin of everything, and that the origin dates to ~Nov-Dec 2019.
The sequences from the US, from Europe, from Australia etc all radiate out from that origin.

3) The pathology is different - doctors in China got very good at detecting COVID-19 using CT scans, and there are quite distinct cellular features seen on autopsy. These were not noted in Dec & Jan here.

ro_chez

Just watching Sky News there and we are actually in fact in full lockdown...glad that's cleared up so!

fritzelly

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is there many strains of CoronaVirus? Is Sars and Covid19 different strains?

I'm confusing myself more now

Both different but same family, same as the common cold is part of the same family

maebee

GT89 wrote: »

The EUs silence on this absolutely startling. Brexit is beginning to look like a very wise move perhaps pointless though as the EU will likely be irelevant when this is all over as countries will want to take their borders back.

Brexit is a nothing. We have a viral pandemic on our hands.

YFlyer

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sorry excuse my ignorance is that not antibiotics if not what is antivirals?

Go to sleep.

bodhrandude

Scientists and medical professionals have been saying for the last two months now that a vaccine could be 12/18 months away, deduct 2 months it should be either 10/16 months away.

saabsaab

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sorry excuse my ignorance is that not antibiotics if not what is antivirals?

Antibiotics work against bacteria only. Antivirals work against viruses only. However, if one gets a flu from a virus a bacterial infection can sometimes 'piggyback' on your weakened body thus the need for antibiotics as well.

JP Liz V1

davedanon wrote: »

Antibiotics are only for infections, caused by bacteria. They don't work on viruses.
I'm asthmatic as well, so I can appreciate the need for steroids. I was just curious about the anti-b's.

I had mucus / phlegm I couldn't get up, in the end I had pleurisy from the cough, sides sore

What are antivirals? I assume what I was given were antibiotics - Clonamox Augmentin or Amoxicillin etc.,

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

It's certainly an 'out there' theory. The Oxford guys are claiming the UK shouldn't even be under lockdown as Covid has been widespread in the country for months (!)

That would be the herd mentality...

MipMap

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I'm not 60 but got seasonal flu jab and also a pneumonia jab but still got a really bad flu which now I think was a bad strain of a Coronavirus

Sister in UK was the same. She is convinced she already had Covid 19.


I bet it has been around for ages before it was widely detected but I am not sure what the point is. People are dying all over Europe and it is wishful thinking that that is not coming here regardless of whether some of us are immune or not. The same levels of immunity would have existed in Italy and Spain.

Corkgirl20

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

On South China morning post , it says that 43,000 in China tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms. These people were not included in the number of confirmed cases in China (81,000).
Seems a bit odd that 1/3 of the population had no symptoms.
Does anybody have any info if the asymptotic people can still pass it onto others ? Can they later get the virus with symptoms or are they immune?

I know nobody probably has the answers, I’m just trying to work this out in my head.

Yes, this is being picked by a few news outlets.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200323_37/amp.html

https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/world/china-hides-one-third-of-120000-confirmed-coronavirus-cases/news-story/edeb5ed9a3ef474ef1af8917856f27bf

Big implications going forward trying to figure true mortality rates (if they can ever be figured out), speed of infection etc.

frillyleaf

Steve F wrote: »

Yes indeed...we all feel the same.
Sobering thought though is we are "probably" only at the beginning of a long haul.A couple of points
1. A successful vaccine is approximately 12 to 18 months away.
2.Social Distancing is here till then because if we don't keep it up the virus cases will Skyrocket again.
3.Experts keeping a close eye on what happens in China now restrictions are starting to be relaxed,this will be key to what happens here and elsewhere.
4.Two major developments on our side could be the use of Antivirals that kill the virus in infected patients or Covid19 mutates into a less potent strain and becomes less harmful to humans.
5.A hope that warmer weather slows the spread.

We live in hope

“Relaxed” in China is still doing more than what western countries seem to do. For example, They scan everyone’s temp before boarding buses or entering shops, they social distance still and have people disinfecting rails on buses after journeys, churches, streets etc. I think there are still regions that quarantine applies to when entering country

snotboogie

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is there many strains of CoronaVirus? Is Sars and Covid19 different strains?

I'm confusing myself more now

Yes and yes. Some of the varients of the common cold are also a corona virus.

dePeatrick

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I'm not 60 but got seasonal flu jab and also a pneumonia jab but still got a really bad flu which now I think was a bad strain of a Coronavirus

Well if it was a Rhinovirus (common cold) there are about 200 different strains of it varying from very mild to very severe, most people call them 'Flu' but in fact they are colds, to make matters worse, you can catch two at a time...

threeball

threeball wrote: »

In that case why is it decimating Italy but had no real traction here and only kicking off in the UK. If it's here since December and it only originated in late November how is Italy so far ahead.

They also know exactly the origin of the Italian infection and the problems spiralled from there. It's not plausible to say it's been around almost 4 months and no one noticed.

I don't know. Maybe Italians see their grandparents more. Maybe retirees see each other more. What I find bizarre is the fear people have of this thing spreading so easily, but at the same time, the idea that it got from China to Italy in November or December just isn't plausible.

In my unscientific opinion, so take this with a grain of salt, in a few years, the estimated death rate of this virus will be close to influenza, and it was the way it spread that led to so many deaths. No one immune, far too many people asymptomatic and spreading it, mild cases spreading it, and it finally reaching a large number of vulnerable people. I think most of us will have had it.

Kermit.de.frog

JP Liz V1

YFlyer wrote: »

Go to sleep.

I think that's best for me

bekker

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is there many strains of CoronaVirus? Is Sars and Covid19 different strains?

I'm confusing myself more now

Yes a family of viruses by description, corona is latin for crown, i.e. crown like.

Full description is novel coronavirus SARS II, virus COVID-19.

So it's an unknown (novel) coronavirus, closely related to SARS(I).

YFlyer

smelly sock wrote: »

Covid19 imo has been around for 3-4 months. There was a bug doing the rounds that i had with all the symptoms of covid

Maybe a bug. Not Covid19.

Nodster

frillyleaf wrote: »

People were still coming to Ireland up until last weekend. Flights were full from America for example

Speaking to a friend who returned on the 13th from the States, he said 90 american passengers cancelled in case they couldn't return in the event of flights being cancelled

YFlyer

bekker wrote: »

Yes a family of viruses by description, corona is latin for crown, i.e. crown like.

Full description is novel coronavirus SARS II, virus COVID-19.

So it's an unknown (novel) coronavirus, closely related to SARS(I).

The common cold is from the same family.

auspicious

-Americans still congregating on beaches or in shopping malls.
-Hospital’s equipment supply diminished, one anesthesiologist wore a plastic bag over his head during a procedure.
-One in 10 Americans have no health insurance, while a widespread lack of sick pay across the country has forced many ill people into work despite the risk of spreading the virus.
-Trump has signaled that he is prepared to wind down restrictions at the end of a 15-day window in an attempt to bolster the economy and a sagging stock market.
-Some hospitals already reaching full ICU capacity.

The future looks dire there. Trump has secured his legacy.

davedanon

Today, 00:19 #6859
GT89
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2020

GT89 wrote: »

The EUs silence on this absolutely startling. Brexit is beginning to look like a very wise move perhaps pointless though as the EU will likely be irelevant when this is all over as countries will want to take their borders back.

Hello, re-reg. The Never-Ending Brexit thread is thataway ---->