CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

darjeeling

Roger_007 wrote: »

There seems to be a trend emerging about the approach to testing in some countries including Ireland and the UK. This could be due to the virtual impossibility of carrying out timely tests on anyone who displays any symptoms of the virus.
Even though only people displaying symptoms were being tested, we have learned that 95% of tests are negative. There can only be two reasons for this:-
1. The subjects do not have, and never had, the virus or
2. They have had it and recovered with no detectable virus load by the time the test is done.

If the second reason is what has been happening, then it would indicate that the virus is very widespread in the population already and the numbers of cases being reported is just fiction. It would also indicate that unless tests are timely, they are a waste of time unless the subject developes serious symptoms and needs to be hospitalised.

I think the medical boffins have come to the conclusion that mass testing would achieve nothing. Where serious symptoms emerge they will come to attention anyway. The exception would be frontline medical staff.

What is likely to happen with this disease is that it will run its course whatever we do and will fade into the background along with the various other seasonal infections that circulate in the community all the time. An effective vaccine will probably become widely available in the next year or so and any vulnerable people can be protected from any future outbreak.

That looked to be the picture in the UK until a couple of weeks ago, but they have changed what they're doing since.

At yesterday's Commons science select committee hearing, Neil Ferguson, (epidemiologist advising UK govt) said that the UK is now following a suppression strategy.
He expects the epidemic to peak within 3 weeks, with max 10% infected in London (the worst affected area) during the first wave. Himself among them as it happens.

The govt chief science advisor Patrick Vallance said the strategy was to break transmission between households.
He repeatedly emphasised the goal is now shrinking the epidemic, not just slowing down the growth.

All agreed that the best end point is a vaccine.
Two vaccine experts said they thought this would take 12-18 months.
On prompting, one said 6 months was the minimum, if everything worked seamlessly.

Meanwhile, no-one could say for certain how to lift the lockdown without a second epidemic wave.
Ferguson thought mass testing and contact tracing might work, as done in S Korea.
Vallance talked of relaxing restrictions while monitoring to see if a second wave started, reintroducing them if necessary.
He also said they're ramping up testing, both for active infections (only in-patients and NHS staff tested currently) and also antibody testing for previous infection, indicating immunity.
Both said we'd learn lessons from other countries also trying to end their lockdowns.

Ferguson dismissed the possibility that the virus has already spread to half the population without anyone seeing it, citing evidence from towns in Italy that were tested intensely, and at different stages of the epidemic.

FWIW I also think this is extremely unlikely.
Current testing is still only finding low numbers, so this scenario would require a very rapid silent initial phase of the epidemic, then a slow-down, and people getting severely ill only after that.
None of that would make sense.
Also, screening programs running for weeks haven't picked up the new virus until recently -
e.g. samples from patients with flu symptoms in Germany tested since mid-February only started showing COVID-19 3 weeks ago, and at very low levels.


The whole hearing was uploaded by The SUN (!)
Not their usual fare, so we really are in an upside-down world.
Be warned, it's 3 hours long and the sound is often terrible, so only watch if you've exhausted everything on Netflix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScwzBnmsXBI

cdgalwegian

Toffeeboy wrote: »

I assume this has already been asked and answered, but when do people think this will end? I know this is like asking how long is the piece of string, but I assume the Gov/HSE have some plan in place for when they forecast this happening, just like I assume they knew when they were going to implement closing schools etc, based on the number of cases they were seeing.

What has to happen for us all to be allowed to go back to work?
Zero new cases for X number of days/Zero deaths/Capacity increasing in ICU?
When will this happen this happen?
If new cases happen does that mean WFH/close business again?
Do we have to wait for a vaccine before everything goes back to "normal"?

Ah here. A busy thread, with lots of repeated questions, and you want to rehash the same? Take some time and go through previous q + a's- you'll see plenty of posters pointing out people clogging things up like A/E and testing procedures, not to mention here.

Jin luk

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

On a positive note . We definitely seem to be flattening the curve.

How?

jamesf85

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't think this is likely. Only 6% of tests positive up to now , yes? And presumably most of those tested would have some reason to think they had it.

I imagine, like the flu, some people don't contract it despite being exposed to it.

Again, think of the cruise ship. Patient zero was onboard with a cough for 5 days, most of the ship would have been exposed in some form yet only 19% contracted it.

gabeeg

Jin luk wrote: »

How?

By testing a very narrow band of people

is_that_so

Jin luk wrote: »

How?

That it is hovering at just under 20% and not going fully exponential at 30%. Small comfort but any comfort is worth taking.

kilkenny31

ZX7R wrote: »

Voucher system will never work , the ESRI are predicting on worse case scenario from the peak of the stock market to now we are at levels of 5 years ago , you will hear people say we are at levels of 2008 but that is not the true reality of it.
At the moment the ECB is creating stimulus for business and banks , more money is being printed.
They are concentrating on getting the European economy going when the virus is more under control.
Then the cash will flow to intise people to spend.
Most money pumped into the world economy at the moment is just causing knee jerk reaction with investors trying to make a quick buck

The ESRI prediction is not worse case scenario. It is their prediction. They say the economy will shrink by "At Least 7.1%" and that those predictions are based on the economy returning to growth in Q3 and Q4 which is highly doubtful.

cfuserkildare

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

Seamai

wadacrack wrote: »

Use common sense. Go for exercise outside and avoid going near anyone. Try not to touch anything. Railings or metal fences in parks. Its not hard and will greatly help people's mental health and obviously fitness levels. The benefits massively out weigh the risks

Agreed, taking care of mental health is vital, I'm sure a lot of peoples anxiety levels are much higher right now and being cooped up with 3, 4 or 5 others is pretty testing for many. It's warm and sunny here in Cork today which on a side note gives people the opportunity to get a bit of vitamin D, something many of us are lacking after the winter and which may be beneficial in strengthening our immune systems.
Just stick to the guidelines and keep your distance.

leavingirl

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

On a positive note . We definitely seem to be flattening the curve.

The UK have completely downgraded the status of COVID19.

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is NO LONGER considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."

A complete downgrade. We should see a removal of the lockdown and everyone can go back to work.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#definition-of-hcid

Jin luk

is_that_so wrote: »

That it is hovering at just under 20% and not going fully exponential at 30%. Small comfort but any comfort is worth taking.

Its under 20% because they cant process the tests quick enough restrictions theyve taken wont be seen for a few week

murpho999

gabeeg wrote: »

By testing a very narrow band of people

Our testing process is well ahead of other countries.

Also, look at the death rate and numbers of people in ICU. Still low.

Numbers are going to increase but we seem to be doing well at this stage.

kalkat2002

As per spanish newspaper looks like the fast test bought to china is useless...only 30% accuracy
They will open an aliexpres dispute.
What a business is doing China!!

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html?ssm=whatsapp

is_that_so

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

235 was the daily number, the latter the total to date.

BattleCorp

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

On a positive note . We definitely seem to be flattening the curve.

Our official numbers of people with the virus are a load of boll1x. Hospitals starting to fill with people with the virus but no results back so even though they are in hospital with the virus, they aren't officially counted in our figures.

Social distancing and people obeying the rules is flattening the curve somewhat but time will tell how effective it is.

Christy42

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

An additional. Aka. 235 new cases with 1564 total.

So they are accurate.

Hrududu

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

235 new cases, added to our previous known cases bringing the total to 1564.

murpho999

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

That's easy. there's 235 additional cases here bringing the total to 1564.

I really don't see what your problem here is.

Harry Palmr

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."

are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

What's the problem here? Additional and in total are pretty clear and distinct.

wakka12

Lavinia wrote: »

i am not seeing this?

In the notifications at the bottom of the worldometres page not the table

is_that_so

kalkat2002 wrote: »

As per spanish newspaper looks like the fast test bought to china is useless...only 30% accuracy
They will open an aliexpres dispute.
What a business is doing China!!

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html?ssm=whatsapp

That question was asked, at least twice last night, and they commented of the accuracy of tests. They still keep an eye on what's going on in the area.

Wombatman

Couple of questions.

Why no case numbers for England yesterday?

Does anybody else think meet ups with up to 4 people, that you don't live with, is defeating the purpose?

wakka12

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

That seems very clear to me

yourdeadwright

You'd imagine by next week or the week after you we will see mostly just cases where people have picked it up from there own families member

Surely at this stage everyone people are avoiding anyone who is not a family member only for visit to the shops and being extremely careful while they are there ,

Beasty

gabeeg wrote: »

By testing a very narrow band of people

We went into this effectively testing on request - how could a GP turn down someone who was worried and claimed they had symptoms?

There is now an acceptance this was completely unworkable. Now we have much narrower testing protocols, probably much more in line with elsewhere. hence a lot more will go undiagnosed. hence it appears as if we are not getting as many positives as we were

Of course Leo predicted possibly 15,000 confirmed cases by the end of the month. We've barely carried out that many tests to date. If w tested all those seeking under prior guidelines we may have ended up with 150,000 tests and 15,000 positives. All conjecture of course but moving the goalposts often has an impact on the "result"

Quantum Erasure

wakka12 wrote: »

In the notifications at the bottom of the worldometres page not the table

I know they do it for first deaths in a country, or region

ZX7R

kilkenny31 wrote: »

The ESRI prediction is not worse case scenario. It is their prediction. They say the economy will shrink by "At Least 7.1%" and that those predictions are based on the economy returning to growth in Q3 and Q4 which is highly doubtful.

Read there full report not the little article report in the news

is_that_so

Jin luk wrote: »

Its under 20% because they cant process the tests quick enough restrictions theyve taken wont be seen for a few week

We shall see. They seem "encouraged" every day!

Beasty

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

235 additional cases reported yesterday bringing the total to date to 1,564

And funnily enough that's exactly how it's been interpreted in this thread, the thread title, and the daily summary sticky in the forum

ShyMets

yourdeadwright wrote: »

You'd imagine by next week or the week after you we will see mostly just cases where people have picked it up from there own families member

Surely at this stage everyone people are avoiding anyone who is not a family member only for visit to the shops and being extremely careful while they are there ,

Unfortunately not. A lot of people are still going to their place of work. So there is the possibility to contract the virus there or on public transport if they have to use it

yourdeadwright

Just a quick one.,
I was thinking would your green and black bins be a hot spot for catching the virus ?
The bin men who collect them must touch hundreds of bin handles on there rounds then you go out and bring it in by the handle ,
Just something people might have looked past ,

Blueshoe

ShyMets wrote: »

Unfortunately not. A lot of people are still going to their place of work. So there is the possibility to contract the virus there or on public transport if they have to use it

I'm in work as per usual. As are many many people

Quantum Erasure

Hospital management of confirmed HCID cases
Once an HCID has been confirmed by appropriate laboratory testing, cases in England should be transferred rapidly to a designated HCID Treatment Centre.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19,

leavingirl wrote: »

The UK have completely downgraded the status of COVID19.

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is NO LONGER considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."

A complete downgrade. We should see a removal of the lockdown and everyone can go back to work.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#definition-of-hcid

Probably more to do with the management of the situation, than anything else

Boggles

cfuserkildare wrote: »

Sad news, i know,

But you would think RTE would be accurate with reporting current events?


" Last night, the Department of Health announced that two more patients diagnosed with Covid-19 had died.

It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to nine.

There were an additional 235 confirmed cases of the virus in Ireland and 1,564 in total."



So are there 235 cases? or 1564 cases?

Which is it?

That seems pretty clear to me.

splinter65

Lots of wage cuts on the way again for public sector workers. Lots of SW cuts too. The left wing politicians who are crowing today about how obvious it is today that “socialism works” won’t later on stand up in the Dail and admit that the big spending that’s going on today has to be paid for down the line. No, they’ll stand up and roar and shout about savage cuts to vulnerable workers.

Seamai

Blueshoe wrote: »

I'm in work as per usual. As are many many people

Do you work in an area that's considered essential?

iwillyeah1234

latest UK figures:

9,500 cases , up from 8,022 yesterday

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

gabeeg

murpho999 wrote: »

Our testing process is well ahead of other countries.

Also, look at the death rate and numbers of people in ICU. Still low.

Numbers are going to increase but we seem to be doing well at this stage.

Yeah our testing process is well ahead of some countries, and yet it's miles behind the countries that are dealing with this crisis well.

Due to our limited capacity to test I completely understand the need to prioritise those that are most likely to have the virus.
However, you can't read the testing criteria and not see that countless people with covid will not meet the criteria, and subsequently not be tested and their contacts will not be traced. Hopefully they'll all stay in quarantine.

From a shambolic start, our testing process has improved, but it's a long way from giving us a clear picture of what's going on out there. And therefore drawing any confidence from the relatively low daily number of cases is I feel misplaced.

I agree that the ICU and mortality rate is of some comfort though

Fr_Dougal

Beasty wrote: »

We went into this effectively testing on request - how could a GP turn down someone who was worried and claimed they had symptoms?

There is now an acceptance this was completely unworkable. Now we have much narrower testing protocols, probably much more in line with elsewhere. hence a lot more will go undiagnosed. hence it appears as if we are not getting as many positives as we were

Of course Leo predicted possibly 15,000 confirmed cases by the end of the month. We've barely carried out that many tests to date. If w tested all those seeking under prior guidelines we may have ended up with 150,000 tests and 15,000 positives. All conjecture of course but moving the goalposts often has an impact on the "result"

If anything our confirmed cases should increase dramatically as now we’re testing people with real symptoms and not the hypochondriacs.

Same number of tests carried out, more confirmed cases.

DOCARCH

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

latest UK figures:

9,500 cases , up from 8,022 yesterday

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

That is actually yesterdays figure. No figures today, yet.

wakka12

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

latest UK figures:

9,500 cases , up from 8,022 yesterday

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

That is from yesterday. Uk release their figures in the afternoon for Wales, Scotland NI and then around 5 oclock for England, UK as a whole

iwillyeah1234

is_that_so wrote: »

Are you doing video calls with people? Finding that is both enjoyable and necessary all round.

working from home here ( company has gone into lockdown for past 2 weeks) - our regular daily calls are now fully video ( Microsoft Teams).

really does improve the morale to actually see your other team mates.

caveat emptor

Thanks. There is a Tesco. Similar delivery situation i.e next month. I've not tried the click and collect. Still about a week wait time. I'm ok on long conservation for 2 weeks. Just need fruit veg and meat really. Have a little fella and mrs who was expecting this delivery. Me of all people was saying it would be grand for past 2 weeks on this front. Not filled with confidence now but trying to keep a straight face on it for their sake.

Again I'm not worried about today. I'm worried about next fortnight. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it though.

Real Life

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Just a quick one.,
I was thinking would your green and black bins be a hot spot for catching the virus ?
The bin men who collect them must touch hundreds of bin handles on there rounds then you go out and bring it in by the handle ,
Just something people might have looked past ,

They would, I got an email from our bin company about this. Asking to please clean the bin handles before leaving them out and after bringing them back in etc but this is definitely something you should be aware of yourself and washing your hands properly after it.

Rob A. Bank

First case of Covid-19 identified in Cox's Bazaar, Bangladesh, which is right beside some huge Rohingya refugee camps. The medical system is rudimentary and with over 1/2 million people living on top of one another... The outcome will be disastrous.

A lot of cities in the Third World are surrounded by overcrowded shanty towns like this, yet another disaster in the making caused by this damn virus.

iwillyeah1234

wakka12 wrote: »

That is from yesterday. Uk release their figures in the afternoon for Wales, Scotland NI and then around 5 oclock for England, UK as a whole

yes indeed - the England figures tend to come out around 5pm each day.

those stats are what they are as of right now this morning.

cfuserkildare

No choice for us,

Desk-Side Support can't really work remotely.

boardlady

KiKi III wrote: »

I did that yesterday and I did have a good day, but there's only so long I can ignore reality for.

I think it's the lack of human interaction that's getting to me. I see my housemate for about two hours in the evening in between him coming from work and going to bed and otherwise not a soul in about 8 days now.

Lots of whatsapp messages etc, but it's not the same.

Can you arrange to meet a friend outdoors? Like at the beach or park or even your garden wall? You each bring your own thermos cup and snack and sit/stand at least 2m apart and have a catch up? I am doing this with family.

Beasty

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If anything our confirmed cases should increase dramatically as now we’re testing people with real symptoms and not the hypochondriacs.

Same number of tests carried out, more confirmed cases.

They are actually upping the number of tests as well, but also by eliminating the "backlog" we will get much more up to date information

However the "exponentiality" of the "curve" will be diminished

If we had eaten into the backlog by upping the testing clearly we would have shown a much starker "curve" and by the time(/if) they did catch up a hell of a lot more confirmed cases

SleetAndSnow

Spain at +6673 and +442 deaths already, with more numbers to come.during the day most likely as usual.

Shocking.