CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The true mortality rate is vastly lower than 1%

Most people who get it are not part of the statistical data.

Diamond Princess is the best and really only truly representative sample study and has a mortality rate of 1.5%. South Korea which did the most testing in the world by far also records a mortality rate of 1.4%. It is much more likely to be around this figure than significantly lower

bekker

owlbethere wrote: »

The change in testing criteria makes sense.

From what was mentioned during Tuesdays briefing, I think testing is approx 1300 a day but I might have that wrong. So far the biggest daily increase was approximately 240 people. It means a sizable portion that's being sent for testing, is testing negative and there's also a bit of a delay with the testing happening too from what I understand. So that would mean, the negatives truly are negatives because the infection should be taking hold in the body with a delay in testing.

With the criteria change to 2+ symptoms, it would mean they will hopefully be able to catch more people with the infection and hopefully quicker and get the contract tracing done quicker too.


It does make sense.


If I was to come down with symptoms I wouldn't be too pushed getting a test. I would self isolate and try and rest in bed instead of getting worked up about a test.

Unfortunately, no it doesn't.

It only means that more of the those testing positive will be have been subject to more impactfull reactions to the virus.

Self-reporting based testing only tells you about that cohort who have passed the current triage parameters.
+ and only of those whose tests have been taken, processed and reported.

It tells nothing beyond that.

growleaves

best case mortality rate: let's say 1%

No. Could be lower.

with no controls at all? business as usual?

easily 50% of world's population.

It could easily be worse than the Black Death? So this is now the worst pandemic in human history?

owlbethere

STB. wrote: »

We are unique. Our health system is not up to the same standards as other countries due to generations of not fixing it. We knew about this pandemic well in advance.

The HSE did not order enough in February of the basic PPE and Testing Equipment. The community testing regime has been abandoned as a result.

The first batch of a 28m shipment was clearly dithered about, but is now due on Friday (according to the HSE PR manager) a full month into the pandemic here.

247 healthcare staff have been infected, that's a large percentage of the medical staff to play russian roulette with. Its such an issue that they have taken to social media to get protective gear, because their employer has failed in their duties.

And please don't try and trivialise this matter, This is not an amateur debating society.

The virus was discovered in January so it wasn't well in advance.

It's only recently being described as a pandemic. It wasn't a pandemic in February (although many people here saw that it was going to go that way).

They probably didn't realize this was going to come into Europe and flood the place as quickly as it did and it happened very quickly. Like ebola was contained in Africa and never came our way.

Face masks were very quick to go from a lot of places because China was ahead of us needing gear and before it kicked off here. So that would have played a part too.

1800_Ladladlad

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

These parasites will only lap up the attention. Cretin


https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1242630562285670400

Cody Phister?


he'll get well phisted in prison

fritzelly

flynnlives wrote: »

I would love to see the stats of outcomes from referral letters to A&E's.

Id hazard a guess that the stats would bare out two huge groups:
a group that spent 12 hours in A&E and then went home
and
people admitted only 2/3 days suggesting they were admitted for tests and set home when nothing was wrong


I would then go further and see how many from each group are medical card holders.

Could always bring in an emergency level based fee - here's a plaster and that's €500 (€499 for medical card holders) thank you and then the genuine cases free

Jinglejangle69

Love the whole new swathe of medical overnight experts we have in Ireland all of a sudden.

All know better than the HSE, WHO.

You name it, they know better.

Maestro85

flynnlives wrote: »

The gp's are the problem.

Why did the numbers in A&E drop off miraculously last week?

because gp's stopped referring everyone with a sore knee to the A&E's thats why.

We dont have a trolley crisis in ireland we have a primary care crisis.

A friend of mine, a nurse, did her thesis for an administration course on this very topic. It is so very true. She points it out a lot.

flynnlives

I may be wrong and im open to correction but is the reason this went global because of the crusie ships?

I seem to remember a lull in the media exposure to Wuhan and China suggesting that the spread had slowed. then a few days later i start to see stories about these cruise ships.

Is it the case that chinese tourists went on cruises which in of themselves are petri dishes and spread it globally from there?

paul71

flynnlives wrote: »

Pubs hadnt closed yet.
HSE and gov broadcasted to everyone to only go to A&E for critical issues.

It will have an effect this week. I have once been in an A&E on a Friday evening with my brother who broke a collar bone playing football, its a bloody disgrace. Having spoke to my mother, a retired nurse afterwards she said it has always been the same.

paul71

cjmc wrote: »

Not related to Ireland, but NY send fcuked. I didn't realise the amount of cases there

Subways, watch London next week.

flynnlives

fritzelly wrote: »

Could always bring in an emergency level based fee - here's a plaster and that's €500 (€499 for medical card holders) thank you and then the genuine cases free

There is a fee but from my experience its not enforced and ends up in debt collectors.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Diamond Princess is the best and really only truly representative sample study and has a mortality rate of 1.5%. South Korea which did the most testing in the world by far also records a mortality rate of 1.4%. It is much more likely to be around this figure than significantly lower

Except the age profile was different to the average population

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Diamond Princess is best and only representative sample study and has a mortality rate of over 1%. South Korea which did the most testing in the world also records a mortality rate of over 1%

Diamond Princess was full of old people. If you coop up a bunch of old people I would accept that the mortality rate could be 1%

Since you claimed this is the best and most representative study, you must therefore now agree that the true mortality rate is vastly lower than 1%

murpho999

STB. wrote: »

We are unique. Our health system is not up to the same standards as other countries due to generations of not fixing it. We knew about this pandemic well in advance.

The HSE did not order enough in February of the basic PPE and Testing Equipment. The community testing regime has been abandoned as a result.

The first batch of a 28m shipment was clearly dithered about, but is now due on Friday (according to the HSE PR manager) a full month into the pandemic here.

247 healthcare staff have been infected, that's a large percentage of the medical staff to play russian roulette with. Its such an issue that they have taken to social media to get protective gear, because their employer has failed in their duties.

And please don't try and trivialise this matter, This is not an amateur debating society.

You're going on about ordering stuff in advance as if there's been loads of time.

China only notified WHO on December 31st of unusual pneumonia cases and had it's first death on January 11.

Europe or the world was not worried then.

First death in Europe occurred in France on February 14th.

Italy didn't report deaths until Febraury 22nd.

The first case in Ireland was confirmed on February 29th.

So where is all this time to prepare you are talking about?

And even if the HSE went looking for PPE in February, what makes you think other countries weren't as well and they were in short supply?

Also, Ireland's system of healthcare is behind other countries, I agree but it doesn't mean it's awful and also the care people get is second to none once they get a bed. It's not poor care but a poor system. But now it's fully ramped up in emergency mode for Covid-19 care.
Go to an Aftrican country to find out what poor healthcare is.

Considering the first case was here on Feb 29th and then Patrick's Day was cancelled early and scbools ordered closed on March 12th , I tink they've acted quite quickly and done well.
Testing is not perfect but is ramping up and come a very long way in a couple of weeks.

You're just putting everything Ireland does down for the sake of it whilst not being realistic.

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Except the age profile was different to the average population

In South Korea?
The average age passenger on the ship was 58, and 1/3 on board were workers.

krissovo

Yawn, wake up OP. Its clear we are an island of hypochondriacs so an additional layer of being fecked up is good to stop the 19,000 hypochondriacs a day spoofing a test to prevent the real candidates getting a shot plus minimise the contact tracing.

tuxy

flynnlives wrote: »

I may be wrong and im open to correction but is the reason this went global because of the crusie ships?

I seem to remember a lull in the media exposure to Wuhan and China suggesting that the spread had slowed. then a few days later i start to see stories about these cruise ships.

Is it the case that chinese tourists went on cruises which in of themselves are petri dishes and spread it globally from there?

No, it went global because of how contagious it is and no one has immunity.

Air travel accounts for far more travel than cruise ships.

What was happening on the cruise ships was just an easier to observe representation of what was happening in communities all over the world.

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Diamond Princess was full of old people. If you coop up a bunch of old people I would accept that the mortality rate could be 1%

Since you claimed this is the best and most represtantive study you must therefore now agree that the true mortality rate is vastly lower than 1%

So just ignore the fact that South Korea also recorded a similar figure, the fact the two most representative samples we have arrived at a similar figure further proves the point
Do you know anything about the ship occupants or just basing it on anecdotes that old people cruise ?
1/3 were workforce age,1200 people ,of the 2400 passengers the average age was 58, so there was a large number of younger people on board

STB.

frillyleaf wrote: »

Do you think the HSE tried but couldn’t get it on time? Or was it just left too late ?

Too late. 247 infected Healthcare staff later.

They claim they didn't order enough in February.

The HSE Director of Communications responded when a plea from St James Hospital was retweeted by Today FM.

Earlier this week several twitter accounts from other front line workers seeking PPE over Twitter were apparently temporarily frozen.

murpho999 wrote: »

Y
Testing is not perfect but is ramping up and come a very long way in a couple of weeks.

You're just putting everything Ireland does down for the sake of it whilst not being realistic.

Cuckoo land. That's where you are.

Salary Negotiator

ShatterAlan wrote: »

How does one, who wants to be tested for something qualify themselves as to whether or not to be tested?

They don’t, wanting a test for no reason is a waste of people’s time and resources.


Don’t be a dick OP.

Raconteuse

Are we an island of hypochondriacs? I think it's more just people having the fear they genuinely might have it, due to so much publicised about it being deceptively mild or even asymptomatic. They have to narrow it down, and research is taking place as we speak, to help do this.

Rob A. Bank

wakka12 wrote: »

Diamond Princess is best and only representative sample study and has a mortality rate of 1.5%. South Korea which did the most testing in the world also records a mortality rate of over 1.4%. It is much more likely to be around this figure than significantly lower

The Diamond Princess still has 115 active unresolved cases... 15 (13%) of those are still in a 'serious or critical condition'.

Sooo... It's to early to call the ship's mortality rate and it goes to show how long hospital beds may be needed for treating this damn virus.

https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/diamond-princess

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

So just ignore the fact that South Korea also recorded a similar figure

You said Diamond Princess was the most representative. I quoted the post above. I can quote it again if you like. So by your logic there is no need for me to examine South Korea stats or any others.

Do you know anything about the ship occupants or just basing it on anecdotes that old people cruise ?
1/3 were workforce age, of the 2700 passengers the average age was 58, so there was a large number of young people on board

How many staff members died ?

flynnlives

I think Ireland Germany and Switzerland have managed this crisis quite well.
By and large messaging has been consistent, firm and supportive.
There has been little confusion from gov and health officials.

The populace in all countries have by and large played their part too.

Weve had a hiccup in testing because they opened it up much too soon but they've quickly tightened it again.
Our curve is steady.


Contrast that to the UK and especially London. There is no testing outside hospitals.
Watch what happens to London in the next week or so.

Christy42

STB. wrote: »

Amazing anecdote.

The reason our infection numbers are not exponential, is because the testing regime has broken down.

If you have a limited number of kits, you cannot test people. Those infected become invisible and are therefore not reflected in the numbers.

Say for example you have 40,000 displaying symptoms (seems like a realistic number doesn't it). If you test none of that 40k at all, what will your rise in positive cases be tomorrow. Will it be zero ?

What will it be in two weeks later given you have taken no action to test and isolate these people.

We will see the people who present in a jocker in ICU, because they cannot breathe. But what about those that went back to work or spread it on to others ?

Community transmission is 49% of the positive tests. Another 25% are healthcare workers.

Not enough testing kits, not enough PPE gear.

That some mess and we are at a starting point.

Links?

Isn't our testing numbers above most per capital? (Baring places that were but much earlier obviously).

murpho999

STB. wrote: »

Too late. 247 infected Healthcare staff later.

They claim they didn't order enough in February.

The HSE Director of Communications responded when a plea from St James Hospital was retweeted by Today FM.

Earlier this week several twitter accounts from other front line workers seeking PPE over Twitter were apparently temporarily frozen.

How do you know when stuff was ordered, from whom, lead times, availability etc?

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

How many staff members died ?

How many required ICU - we'll probably not know for a long while if ever
And after having been in ICU what are their long term health issues
It's not all about how many died, lots will survive this but may have further complications putting more strain on the health services in the future.
We know very little about how this will affect people in the future after recovering - those that already have underlying conditions may have worse conditions if they survive
So many unanswered questions at the moment that we should not treat this as if it is just a bit worse than the flu.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Maestro85 wrote: »

A friend of mine, a nurse, did her thesis for an administration course on this very topic. It is so very true. She points it out a lot.

Primary care seems to consist mainly of either writing a prescription, or a referral or a letter for A&E.

Obviously there are gps that are excellent too but was interesting to see the number on trolleys plummet.

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You said Diamond Princess was the most representative. I quoted the post above. I can quote it again if you like. So by your logic there is no need for me to examine South Korea stats or any others.


How many staff members died ?

How would it being the most representative sample mean it invalidates any other contributing evidence such as the South Korean stats? They are important too. Anyway if you have any valid opposing evidence that this coronavirus has a mortality rate 'vastly lower' than 1% then share it