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Is it just me or have SF vanished?

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    #3182
    all about the mane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    Sound a bit high, no view, 3 bed box,110 k going rate for house round here and they aren't selling

    Wow, that’s seems very cheap. That’s about half the national average?

    Edit: just checked. Average is 267k and average in Dublin in 433k!


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    #3183
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    Yurt! wrote: »
    It's covered in the linked podcast. Half of the above unites are already budgeted for in the NDP.


    NDP proposes...
    Deliver 112,000 new social houses by 2027

    Or about 12,500 units per year. Or 50,000 over 4 years, or 62,500 over 5 years.

    Bumping that to 100,000 means building between 37,500 and 50,000 extra units, giving a cost of unit of between about €175k and €130k

    Even at €175k per unit, how do you build a home?


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    #3184
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    Sound a bit high, no view, 3 bed box,110 k going rate for house round here and they aren't selling

    Problem is SF have people convinced they can have their forever homes wherever they want.

    Plenty of affordable homes available, but people won't move to them.


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    #3185
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sultan_of_Ping wrote: »
    Problem is SF have people convinced they can have their forever homes wherever they want.

    Plenty of affordable homes available, but people won't move to them.


    The SF housing plan isn't a forever home charter in the least.


    That's political guff you're peddling.


    People should be able to discuss serious policy on serious issues without having that kind of stuff introduced.


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    #3186
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    Yurt! wrote: »
    The SF housing plan isn't a forever home charter in the least.


    That's political guff you're peddling.


    People should be able to discuss serious policy on serious issues without having that kind of stuff introduced.

    No comment on how to build a home for €170k.......


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    #3187
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sultan_of_Ping wrote: »
    No comment on how to build a home for €170k.......


    You didn't listen to the podcast I take it...


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    #3188
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    all about the mane wrote: »
    Wow, that’s seems very cheap. That’s about half the national average?

    Edit: just checked. Average is 267k and average in Dublin in 433k!

    40 k from main county town, limited work in local industrial estate , used to be holiday home heaven but now the Nordies have f'all to spend either. Nice views and people which is a good point


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    #3189
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    Yurt! wrote: »
    You didn't listen to the podcast I take it...

    Yes, and it didn't answer the question of how you build a home for €170k during what was then a surging economy


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    #3190
    all about the mane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    40 k from main county town, limited work in local industrial estate , used to be holiday home heaven but now the Nordies have f'all to spend either. Nice views and people which is a good point

    They should never have been allowed to build there. The countryside is destroyed.


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    #3191
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sultan_of_Ping wrote: »
    Yes, and it didn't answer the question of how you build a home for €170k during what was then a surging economy


    I'm not spoonfeeding you. The costings and model of delivery are covered in the podcast. They are found to be credible by the country's number 1 economist on the subject. The figure you have above is your own concoction.


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    #3192
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    Yurt! wrote: »
    I'm not spoonfeeding you. The costings and model of delivery are covered in the podcast. They are found to be credible by the country's number 1 economist on the subject. The figure you have above is your own concoction.

    Concoction?

    I think I showed the working out quite clearly......and I'm being generous as I ve assumed 0% construction inflation, and 0% cost of funds.

    I don't doubt that there are parts of the country where you can build at those costs, but they are not near where the housing demand is.

    ......and that's even before we get to the wisdom of pushing an extra €6.5 billion worth of spending into (what was) a booming economy - not exactly counter-cyclical, is it?


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    #3193
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sultan_of_Ping wrote: »
    Concoction?

    I think I showed the working out quite clearly......and I'm being generous as I ve assumed 0% construction inflation, and 0% cost of funds.

    I don't doubt that there are parts of the country where you can build at those costs, but they are not near where the housing demand is.

    ......and that's even before we get to the wisdom of pushing an extra €6.5 billion worth of spending into (what was) a booming economy - not exactly counter-cyclical, is it?


    Your workings are Fisher Price calculator stuff.

    You have an economist whose career is to research this very subject who has scrutinized the plan and you think your back of an envelope working is superior to his.

    I know who I'm listening to on this.


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    #3194
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Yurt! wrote: »
    It's actually Morning Ireland, so as not to send my friends on a wild goose chase I'll provide the link.


    https://soundcloud.com/morning-ireland/housing-what-does-change-look-like


    Lorcan Sirr takes you through it. The figures stack up sorry to tell you.

    Do they?
    What I heard in that were 2 academics unchallenged waxing lyrical on their theories and the first thing I was thinking was how many houses have they ever built?
    The practicalities and the real world wouldn't be long making a mish mash of that pie in that sky
    It's not actually rocket science to cure housing
    Demand and supply
    First supply the skilled builders
    Second supply the incentive to build
    Third said supply outstrips demand
    Price falls


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    #3195
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Do they?
    What I heard in that were 2 academics unchallenged waxing lyrical on their theories and the first thing I was thinking was how many houses have they ever built?
    The practicalities and the real world wouldn't be long making a mish mash of that pie in that sky
    It's not actually rocket science to cure housing
    Demand and supply
    First supply the skilled builders
    Second supply the incentive to build
    Third said supply outstrips demand
    Price falls


    This is the most simplistic assessment possible, and it's only possible to think this way by being willfully deaf.

    It's the reason we ended up in the mess we got into.


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    #3196
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Yurt! wrote: »
    This is the most simplistic assessment possible, and it's only possible to think this way by being willfully deaf.

    It's the reason we ended up in the mess we got into.

    Why? What we will end up with is a compromise of a lot of solutions anyway, hopefully ending in a reasonable result


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    #3197
    Sultan_of_Ping
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Sultan_of_Ping


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Your workings are Fisher Price calculator stuff.

    You have an economist whose career is to research this very subject who has scrutinized the plan and you think your back of an envelope working is superior to his.

    I know who I'm listening to on this.

    Which bit of my calculations was wrong?


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    #3198
    aido79
    Registered Users Posts: 5,374 ✭✭✭aido79


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Oh ? Where would the other 14 billion come from to build the rest of the 100k houses ? (Assuming a cost of 200k per unit)

    I'll give you a clue...they don't make android phones or use a windows operating system in their computers...


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    #3199
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,959 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Yurt! wrote: »
    You didn't listen to the podcast I take it...


    Hang on, we have dozens of articles producing hard figures on the cost of building homes, we have the actual costs incurred by DCC, we have the results of many tender processes, yet one journalist speaking with back of the envelope calculations on a single podcast trumps all of the expertise.

    That pretty much sounds exactly how SF does policy, pretty Trumpian in essence.


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    #3200
    all about the mane
    Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    aido79 wrote: »
    I'll give you a clue...they don't make android phones or use a windows operating system in their computers...

    And feck all those employed by them in this country. And all those in businesses directly and indirectly depending on them.


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    #3201
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Hang on, we have dozens of articles producing hard figures on the cost of building homes, we have the actual costs incurred by DCC, we have the results of many tender processes, yet one journalist speaking with back of the envelope calculations on a single podcast trumps all of the expertise.

    That pretty much sounds exactly how SF does policy, pretty Trumpian in essence.


    He's a housing economist actually, the best regarded one in the country. Sorry.


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    #3202
    Nitrogan
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Yurt! wrote: »
    He's a housing economist actually, the best regarded one in the country. Sorry.


    A Housing Economist?



    Which University or professional guild accredits that qualification?


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    #3203
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Yurt! wrote: »
    He's a housing economist actually, the best regarded one in the country. Sorry.

    He's one economist, dont be exaggerating his importance, many esteemed economists differ on many things,similar education, has he any practical experience of budgets and building houses?
    Thought not
    Was there any cross examination, contrary opinion or investigation of facts offered in your podcast? No
    Ergo more hot air


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    #3204
    tikkahunter
    Registered Users Posts: 1,052 ✭✭✭tikkahunter


    Yurt! wrote: »
    He's a housing economist actually, the best regarded one in the country. Sorry.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/real-deal-modular-housing-shows-the-cost-of-construction-34652295.html

    They are the ones beside Ikea . The end cost was scandalous. They are an absolute shambles. You can buy house in that area for 50-60 k less .


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    #3205
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,339 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Yurt! wrote: »
    An additional 6.5bn added to current spending commitments on social and affordable to reach 100k units over the stated period.



    This was covered exhaustively around the election on both traditional media an social media.

    It must not have been exhaustive enough as it's clearly stated 6.5bn to deliver 100k social and affordable units, in addition to what? Care to give the breakdown on how many social and affordable houses are currently being delivered and at what cost?

    You know quite well that SF policy is to make unrealistic, unreasonable promises for that sizeable portion of the electorate who believe in the Venezuelan dream.


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    #3206
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,339 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Yurt! wrote: »
    The SF housing plan isn't a forever home charter in the least.


    That's political guff you're peddling.


    People should be able to discuss serious policy on serious issues without having that kind of stuff introduced.

    Social housing in this country is a 4ever home. You're correct in saying that it isn't SF policy as it's current policy. Their policy is to make it an even bigger cheap giveaway.


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    #3207
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    jimmycrackcorm wrote: »
    Social housing in this country is a 4ever home. You're correct in saying that it isn't SF policy as it's current policy. Their policy is to make it an even bigger cheap giveaway.


    You obviously didn't read the policy document or listen to the linked item from Morning Ireland

    The vast majority of builds are intended to be affordable purchase under the Cluid model. Another significant portion will be affordable rental, and the minority of units social housing as we now know it.

    So yes, you're spouting complete political guff.


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    #3208
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    He's one economist, dont be exaggerating his importance, many esteemed economists differ on many things,similar education, has he any practical experience of budgets and building houses?
    Thought not
    Was there any cross examination, contrary opinion or investigation of facts offered in your podcast? No
    Ergo more hot air


    You've provided no credible cross examination yourself. Just a poor understanding of the facts laid out and doctrinaire nonsense. Fairly typical brughaha and bully-boy tactics from FG supporters.

    It's why you got shellacked at election time.


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    #3209
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Yurt! wrote: »
    It's actually Morning Ireland, so as not to send my friends on a wild goose chase I'll provide the link.


    https://soundcloud.com/morning-ireland/housing-what-does-change-look-like


    Lorcan Sirr takes you through it. The figures stack up sorry to tell you.

    You don't have to be sorry to me for anything, I've no skin in this game.

    I'm all for affordable social housing, same as everyone else.

    The O'Cualann model is essentially an asset transfer from the State to private individuals at cut prices but if it works, how bad. Will be interesting to see if it can be scaled from 50 units to 10,000 units. Goes to show that the State can rely on the market to find solutions if the incentives are right.

    Thanks for the link. Can you answer the other two questions btw.


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    #3210
    Nitrogan
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Yurt! wrote: »
    You've provided no credible cross examination yourself. Just a poor understanding of the facts laid out and doctrinaire nonsense. Fairly typical brughaha and bully-boy tactics from FG supporters.

    It's why you got shellacked at election time.


    Donald Trump and the Brexit Party came from nowhere to achieve enough support to take over their countries. Why do a safe majority Irish people vote for anyone but Sinn Fein?


    How bad do you have to be to be more unpopular than Trump and Farrage?


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    #3211
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    jimmycrackcorm wrote: »
    Social housing in this country is a 4ever home. You're correct in saying that it isn't SF policy as it's current policy. Their policy is to make it an even bigger cheap giveaway.

    In a nutshell, yes. O'Cualann houses are sold at cut price to the purchaser. Essentially the state forgoes the value of rates and the price of the land. The developer makes a small profit and the home owner gets a cheaper house.

    It's an asset transfer of public land to private ownership. It's remarkably unsocialist, imo.

    You can have debates about whether the state should give away public assets in such a fashion, but it's not correct to call it social housing, imo. Affordable housing would be a better term.


This discussion has been closed.
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