The strategy of favouring the old and the vulnerable will prove disastrous long term.

Nermal

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

When there’s lives at stake, the economy is so far down my list that it barely registers.

Lives are always at stake in all human activity. You're taking risk-aversion to ridiculous lengths, with statements like this. Should all activity that is not necessary for survival be stopped, in case it endangers someone?

AulWan wrote: »

Death is permanent.

The scars caused by depressions are permanent too.

Runaways

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Are you saying triage isnt happening in italy right now? I thought it was. I saw a doctor in an icu in bergamo interviewed on sky yesterday. He said this was something that would happen in normal times, maybe twice a week, now it was more times than he could count. It was harrowing viewing, but isnt that the reality of the situation?

The part about the over 60s not being treated is complete bull crap. Fake news spread on twitter for the most part by the usual sources to create discord.

Italian health service had to came out and refute it. That kind of fake news is designed to create panic and outrage.

You’d never guess who’s responsible but you probably can.

Maxpfizer

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

What will be will be.
When there’s lives at stake, the economy is so far down my list that it barely registers.

I think this is what they call "privilege".

It's so far down YOUR list so congratulations.
For others maybe they are not so well off.

There are plenty of people right now who will be hitting rock bottom in a few weeks as their money runs out but they still have food to buy and bills to pay. Many of them will already understand that work will be difficult to come by when this blows over and they will be looking at a bleak future for sure.

How can that barely register?

Beasty

Xertz wrote: »

My sense is it will be a lot more of the Dad’s Army spirit that drives the U.K. from this point on and those commentators will be rather rapidly pushed aside as that happens.

Put that bleedin' light out!

:pac:

Xertz

Beasty wrote: »

Put that bleedin' light out!

:pac:

It’s happening already - a couple on twitter were complaining that a woman in Dublin told them to stand further apart and get away from each other.

They pointed out they were a couple - sleep in the same bed etc, but she was having one of it. 2m apart!

TheCitizen

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

The absolute worst case scenario in Britain would involve an excess mortality of over 5 million over the next 12 months. Their best case scenario with their previous plan was about 250,000 dead with 500,000 being a much more likely number.

I find it difficult to believe that the damage to the economy would equate to that worst case scenario ( which would be made more likely by them not cocooning etc ). Parris doesn't understand medicine, epidemiology or virology if this is the sort of twaddle he is writing.

And FYI I'm perfectly fine with allowing people to die if economically justified. Life does not have infinite value. The NHS and HSE have absolutely quantified the value of human life using QALYs ( Quality Adjusted Life Years ). In the UK a QALY is equal to about 15,000 Pounds. What this means is that if it costs more than 15,000 pounds per year to keep you alive they should let you die. If you will live for 20 years with a one shot treatment then that treatment should cost less than 300,000 pounds.

Anyways, bottom line, the economic damage from up to 10% of the population dying in the next year with another 10% having interstitial lung disease/fibrotic complications and dying over the next 5 to 10 years would be far, far more than the economic damage which would occur from following the Singapore/Taiwan or even South Korean models.


It is rare that the better medical model is cheaper economically in the long term. We'd thus be foolish to choose the medically worse model which will be more expensive in the long term. Of course, when in groups people are often very foolish.

As Parris freely admitted himself when he stated; “what would I know?” :pac:

ILoveYourVibes

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

And again, you miss the point. The onus will be on those who are vulnerable to self isolate, as opposed to the majority who are not.

This is ludicrous.

NO AMOUNT OF SELF ISOLATION WILL PREVENT ANYONE GETTING THIS IF THE MAJORITY OF US GET IT ALL AT ONCE.

One million of us get it you think then self isolation will be possible?

Secondly ...WE ARE ALL going to get this at some point in our life time.

WE ARE DELAYING GETTING THIS. We are trying to stagger it out so we save the health service ...

Perhaps you don't know how small the health service is.

AND IF WE ALL GET IT AT ONCE ...ECONOMY BYE BYE ..ITS NOT THE FLU

AulWan

Maxpfizer wrote: »

Yet you've no problem twisting the words of others. See your first paragraph.

Not everyone will survive another economic downturn. Depending on the severity of course.

I don't believe that as many will die from the repercussions of an economic downtown, as will die from COVID-19, if its not slowed down.

I wonder if you even considered what the impact of so many deaths would have on the younger generation? Ever heard of survivor's guilt?

Losing a parent or grandparent is never easy, but potentially losing your parents and/or grandparents in a cluster to COVID-19 because older people would not be prioritised will not be good for mental health, either.

The economic downturn is going to happen, one way or another. Its inevitable at this point.

Nermal

I think people don't grasp how severe this downturn will be.

Liquidity is drying up, right now at this very moment. It's the weekend, and businesses all over the country are mapping out how to delay and avoid paying their employees, their suppliers, and the Revenue. People are figuring out how to stop paying their rent or the PCP - but their payment is someone else's pension. The liquidity problem will turn into a solvency problem in a very short space of time.

We're in a currency union, so we don't have the tools the UK does. An avalanche of bad debt has started to rumble, and it's going to bury us.

Xertz

On the mental health side of things, I’m trying very hard to reach out to people at the moment and just stay in touch.

I don’t care tbh if it might be a bit weird to send some guy from the pub a WhatsApp and ask him how he is, I’m just gonna do it in a non pushy way anyway to at least leave the door open.

These aren’t normal times and I’m just going to reach out and chat. I’ve no idea if that’s helpful or not, but I’m just of the view that I just want to make sure people know they can talk if they want and I’m keeping all casual lines of communication open be they with immediate family and close friends our my outer circle.

Even people I just know through online stuff are 100% welcome to chat anytime at this stage.

I’ve also been trying to keep certain events and fun stuff open and active. Like we’ve a regular few nights out and we now have turned them into online chats.

All that stuff is going to be extremely important over the days and weeks ahead.

TheCitizen

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

This is ludicrous.

NO AMOUNT OF SELF ISOLATION WILL PREVENT ANYONE GETTING THIS IF THE MAJORITY OF US GET IT ALL AT ONCE.

One million of us get it you think then self isolation will be possible?

Secondly ...WE ARE ALL going to get this at some point in our life time.

WE ARE DELAYING GETTING THIS. We are trying to stagger it out so we save the health service ...

Perhaps you don't know how small the health service is.

AND IF WE ALL GET IT AT ONCE ...ECONOMY BYE BYE ..ITS NOT THE FLU

This is the point that the economy stupid morons like Matthew Parris and the op don't get

WhiteLight20

Personally I think if people do not adhere to advice then this pandemic will go on for much longer than expected. Stop it all now and get this cleared up ASAP!! The majority of people are not cooperating! Businesses and schools will be closed long into the summer if people continue to carry on as if nothing is to be scared about. It’s very sad.

TheCitizen

Nermal wrote: »

I think people don't grasp how severe this downturn will be.

Liquidity is drying up, right now at this very moment. It's the weekend, and businesses all over the country are mapping out how to delay and avoid paying their employees, their suppliers, and the Revenue. People are figuring out how to stop paying their rent or the PCP - but their payment is someone else's pension.

We're in a currency union, so we don't have the tools the UK does. An avalanche of bad debt has started to rumble, and it's going to bury us.

We've had severe downturns before. This might be worse than any before but they said that about the last one the last time...remember.

Right now we're concerned with keeping people alive due to a new virus. It isn't an either or scenario, if we don't do everything possible to stem the tide then the chaos and resultant cost of an extreme contagion will have a massive influence on economic activity anyway.

Am wondering when the penny will eventually drop with some around here?

Joe_ Public

Runaways wrote: »

The part about the over 60s not being treated is complete bull crap. Fake news spread on twitter for the most part by the usual sources to create discord.

Italian health service had to came out and refute it. That kind of fake news is designed to create panic and outrage.

You’d never guess who’s responsible but you probably can.

Ah ok, fair enough. I dont recall the post in question specifically referring to over 60s not being treated, but cant recall for certain. Of course its not official policy to prioritise treatment but the reality is doctors in crisis hospitals in italy are forced to do it anyway because lack of beds, ventilators etc. I just hope we can avoid that scenario here, very worried not just for us but for UK as well.

TheCitizen

WhiteLight20 wrote: »

Personally I think if people do not adhere to advice then this pandemic will go on for much longer than expected. Stop it all now and get this cleared up ASAP!! The majority of people are not cooperating! Businesses and schools will be closed long into the summer if people continue to carry on as if nothing is to be scared about. It’s very sad.

Yep. Time for folk to cop on.

storker

Nermal wrote: »

I think people don't grasp how severe this downturn will be.

I think people don't grasp (or care?) how severe the death toll could be if we worry too much about the downturn.

My position would be, to paraphrase Al Pacino in Heat: "If the choice is between keeping you in a job or letting some poor bastard's wife become a widow, brother, you are signing on."

Lord TSC

WhiteLight20 wrote: »

Personally I think if people do not adhere to advice then this pandemic will go on for much longer than expected. Stop it all now and get this cleared up ASAP!! The majority of people are not cooperating! Businesses and schools will be closed long into the summer if people continue to carry on as if nothing is to be scared about. It’s very sad.

The vast majority of people on here seem to be following instructions.

I think there's some weird idea that anyone who wants to discuss the long term economics of the situation are advocating for generational genocide. As if there's zero room to discuss the world that will be on the other side of this crisis.

And that's massively unfair.

Maxpfizer hit the nail on the head imo. It's probably great if you're privileged enough that you can see the world shut down and not have to worry about not just the next three months but the next three years or thirty years.

I absolutely appreciate the fact lives take priority over economics.

But there's some who don't even seemingly want to acknowledge the fact there's hundreds pf thousands of people now who, as well as having a deadly virus hanging over their heads, don't know if they'll be able to afford to feed themselves or heat themselves in the short term.

Personally, I've been doing a lot of reading about UBI in recent days, and see a trend towards that in the UK, US and Canada, even if it's on different trial levels.

Xertz

I’d also argue that being in a currency union isn’t necessarily the bad thing some people say it is. That entire currency union is being impacted in exactly the same way and has to use the tools at its disposal to act in unison on this.

It’s most unlike the 2008 crash where some Eurozone countries were hit badly and others weren’t and a blame game started. This time we are all in this together for real and we have huge firepower through the ECB if it is activated, which it has already begun to be.

If we still had IEP floating what tools would we have? Devalue and be unable to afford imports ?! We’d potentially be in a lot more trouble. We’d be grand other than we’d be living on beef and spuds before long wondering how to pay the energy bills in Monopoly money.

The ECB can print money and we can still trade with the entire Eurozone at those same values. Also due to the sheer scale of it, and that it’s a value reference itself, the likelihood of massive inflation is much lower than for a smaller currency.

Bear in mind that after WWII and until the 1970s western currencies were locked to USD reference values and that in turn was locked to a gold value.

Whestsidestory

Really telling how people need to be told how to spend their time now that their expected to isolate to some degree. Are people really living such narrow lives that they cannot think of ways to spend their time without having someone spell it out for them. Is the meaning of life work,shopping, eating,drinking doing some organised activity ?

ITman88

WhiteLight20 wrote: »

Personally I think if people do not adhere to advice then this pandemic will go on for much longer than expected. Stop it all now and get this cleared up ASAP!! The majority of people are not cooperating! Businesses and schools will be closed long into the summer if people continue to carry on as if nothing is to be scared about. It’s very sad.

There is no ASAP.

People don’t understand that. This virus is here to stay. The doctor who posted here alluded to it in the AMA. He also said it’s going to be seasonal, every year like the flu.

So the point of this thread was to consider the economic effect. I agree with the current approach to flatten the curve as they say. Let’s not flood the hospitals.

BUT how long can the current approach continue???

Are we in lockdown for 10 years?

Kids off school until 2023 perhaps?

Let’s forget the economy, lots of posters say it’s irrelevant.

Where are we implementing this approach come July?

TheCitizen

Xertz wrote: »

I’d also argue that being in a currency union isn’t necessarily the bad thing some people say it is. That entire currency union is being impacted in exactly the same way and has to use the tools at its disposal to act in unison on this.

It’s most unlike the 2008 crash where some Eurozone countries were hit badly and others weren’t and a blame game started. This time we are all in this together for real and we have huge firepower through the ECB if it is activated, which it has already begun to be.

If we still had IEP floating what tools would we have? Devalue and be unable to afford imports ?! We’d potentially be in a lot more trouble.

The ECB can print money and we can still trade with the entire Eurozone at those same values. Also due to the sheer scale of it, and that it’s a value reference itself, the likelihood of massive inflation is much lower than for a smaller currency.

Yep, was a bad time for the Brits to push through on their Brexit lunacy. A question was asked on whether they would delay it last week and true to form the answer was a stiff upper lip stoic NO. Madness that they won't put it on the backburner even for the interim period but the sort of thing we've come to expect from them in recent times.

AulWan

Nermal wrote: »

The scars caused by depressions are permanent too.

Nothing is as permanent as death.

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

There is no ASAP.

People don’t understand that. This virus is here to stay. The doctor who posted here alluded to it in the AMA. He also said it’s going to be seasonal, every year like the flu.

So the point of this thread was to consider the economic effect. I agree with the current approach to flatten the curve as they say. Let’s not flood the hospitals.

BUT how long can the current approach continue???

Are we in lockdown for 10 years?

Kids off school until 2023 perhaps?

Let’s forget the economy, lots of posters say it’s irrelevant.

Where are we implementing this approach come July?

Why don't we flatten the curve first eh and cross the other bridges when we come to it.

ITman88

AulWan wrote: »

Nothing is as permanent as death.

Or as guaranteed

ITman88

TheCitizen wrote: »

Why don't we flatten the curve first eh and cross the other bridges when we come to it.

Exactly let’s bury our head in the sand. Eh

Maxpfizer

Maxpfizer wrote: »

I think this is what they call "privilege".

It's so far down YOUR list so congratulations.
For others maybe they are not so well off.

There are plenty of people right now who will be hitting rock bottom in a few weeks as their money runs out but they still have food to buy and bills to pay. Many of them will already understand that work will be difficult to come by when this blows over and they will be looking at a bleak future for sure.

How can that barely register?

Where did I say I was well off? I’m far from it, but there are way way more important things.

Very presumptuous of you.

Downlinz

It definitely seems like a late stage capitalism thing if we're even debating the monetary value of lives and discussing the merit of sacrifices of the few to maintain the comfort of the majority.

Western society could honestly do with a reset at this stage, this pandemic has laid bare the skewed priorities and obsessive greed of so many.

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

Exactly let’s bury our head in the sand. Eh

Think about ITman, it's the economy stupid and the economy will be decimated if we DON'T adhere to the current strategy, to put it in terms that you're hell bent on blathering on about. Have you got that? Is the penny dropping?

LillySV

TheCitizen wrote: »

Why don't we flatten the curve first eh and cross the other bridges when we come to it.

If Ireland listened to Italy even a week or two ago and closed down all flights , closed border and ordered everyone to stay in then we be in a lot better position than we are! The figures released are nonsense also... know of some still waiting over ten days for results!!

Meanwhile we still haven’t shut down leading to bigger recovery needed which will be worse for economy

ITman88

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

Where did I say I was well off? I’m far from it, but there are way way more important things.

Very presumptuous of you.

Indeed there are more important things but unfortunately many have to give consideration to

Mortgages
Car loans/maintenance etc
Health insurance
Household/utility bills

And at present those are right at the front of people’s minds. Lots of us live paycheck to paycheck.
Saying there is more important stuff is correct for some