Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

KingdomRushed

Met Eireann website is showing >25mm for Dublin Friday evening into Saturday morning.

sryanbruen

Hosepipe ban in force starting midnight tonight.

pauldry

If BBC weather were to be believed that map above greatly overstates Sligos rain

According to their maps we will be lucky to see 5mm mostly from Tuesdays rain. Most showers miss us. Grounds like a rock. Just green coz of drizzles

The lake at Doorley Park you can walk to the pier that was under water in February

Gonzo

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Met Eireann website is showing >25mm for Dublin Friday evening into Saturday morning.

that would be very much dependent on the tracking of low pressures. There are lots of little areas of low pressure going to be floating around and hitting various parts of Ireland and the UK over the next 2 weeks, some places could get stuck under a low pressure for quite some time while others may miss them entirely.

Dublin likely to have a wet and cool day on Wednesday and into Thursday with that low possibly tracking north to south through the Irish sea and rotating as it does so. I'm not expecting alot of rain from it but there could be some moderate falls mixed in with showery bands of rain.

From Friday southern areas look at most risk from seeing heavy showers, but looking at how uncertain recent models have been showers could break out almost anywhere over the weekend.

nacho libre

pauldry wrote: »

If BBC weather were to be believed that map above greatly overstates Sligos rain

According to their maps we will be lucky to see 5mm mostly from Tuesdays rain. Most showers miss us. Grounds like a rock. Just green coz of drizzles

The lake at Doorley Park you can walk to the pier that was under water in February

Yes, if it pans out like the models are currently showing the west and north west will escape most of the rain this week. Some other places could see some thunderstorms and more organised thundery downpours at times.

Farmer2017

Gonzo wrote: »

that would be very much dependent on the tracking of low pressures. There are lots of little areas of low pressure going to be floating around and hitting various parts of Ireland and the UK over the next 2 weeks, some places could get stuck under a low pressure for quite some time while others may miss them entirely.

Dublin likely to have a wet and cool day on Wednesday and into Thursday with that low possibly tracking north to south through the Irish sea and rotating as it does so. I'm not expecting alot of rain from it but there could be some moderate falls mixed in with showery bands of rain.

From Friday southern areas look at most risk from seeing heavy showers, but looking at how uncertain recent models have been showers could break out almost anywhere over the weekend.

How midland areas Westmeath/Offaly goin fair out

Oneiric 3

Farmer2017 wrote: »

How midland areas Westmeath/Offaly goin fair out

A reasonable chance of some slight to moderate amounts before the end of the week. Prep forecast for Mullingar based on latest model run:

Gaoth Laidir

Met Éireann drought summary from yesterday.

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2020/06/DroughtSummaryJune20.pdf

Gonzo

The dry spell is more or less over now. Most places will see rain or showers from tomorrow over the next two weeks starting from tomorrow. GFS precipitation charts over the next 10 days are trending wetter, so this dry spell will soon be forgotten about.



It's looking increasingly unsettled too right up to the last week of June now with low pressures moving in off the north Atlantic right up to the end of FI. If this is correct we may finish up with a slightly cooler than average June and rainfall about average for the month to slightly above in places.

CirrusBusiness

There is hardly a blade of green grass left here in the south east. Hopefully we'll get a decent ground soaking between Friday and next Tuesday. Looks increasingly warm with heavy downpours feeding in from Biscay and France/UK. Hoping to see some sparks towards the weekend and into next week.

Neddyusa

Gonzo wrote: »

The dry spell is more or less over now. Most places will see rain or showers from tomorrow over the next two weeks starting from tomorrow. GFS precipitation charts over the next 10 days are trending wetter, so this dry spell will soon be forgotten about.



It's looking increasingly unsettled too right up to the last week of June now with low pressures moving in off the north Atlantic right up to the end of FI. If this is correct we may finish up with a slightly cooler than average June and rainfall about average for the month to slightly above in places.

Those charts look good for the East and South East, but not so good for drought relief in Midlands and West.

Oneiric 3

Neddyusa wrote: »

Those charts look good for the East and South East, but not so good for drought relief in Midlands and West.

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

Danzy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

Enough to keep grass growing but there is a lot of rain needed to bring it to the normal level.

Had an inch here over the last few days and ground is still kicking dust up rock hard and growth well below norm..but picking up.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would the (very) few spells of rain we got over the last couple of months not have lessened any potential damaging effects of this long running dry spell in the west? Walking around town today, and I didn't seen much in the way of 'yellowing' of grass for instance, despite the lack rain recently, and the nearby countryside still looks as green as ever as well.

The Dublin area and part of Mayo are the hardest hit when it comes to Absolute and Partial droughts. The rest of the country has not been as hardest hit and SMDs are running down as far as around half the level of the Dublin area.

http://climateservices.ie/2020_dryperiods.pdf
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs

Oneiric 3

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

Danzy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

I've fields with a foot of grass, yet there is nothing in them, no volume, no thickness. Lot of silage crops were back 50% this year

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Funny how Claremorris is in the 'danger zone' there, yet it has recorded more rain than me this year, and even this month so far (which is not much in itself) Grass looks healthy enough around here (seen it in much worse state early last summer for example) but I am no farmer and no doubt a good drop of rain is needed to help with crops etc.

The met eireann "drought" definitions are of limited use from an agricultural point of view as they are too crude and focussed too much on rainfall volume - factors like season, persistance of rain etc are not considered.
As one example - a meteorological drought in December is no problem for a farmer - however drought in May is very bad news.
The NUIM study posted by SRyan gave much more detailed analysis of the evapotranspiration conditions this spring.

You don't have to travel too far from Tuam now to see yellow grass.
Around here (Roscommon) on limestone land it's parched and mostly yellow. Anything on a south-facing incline is red.
In a normal summer we need about 30mm per week to maintain grass growth in June and July. And that's without starting June with an 80mm moisture deficit.
As Danzy says many silage crops yields are 50-60% of normal.

Some on this thread have asked why farmers cannot store rainwater. Many do, including myself. The reason grass can't be irrigated is cost. There is no farming system in Ireland capable of paying that diesel bill!
Potatoes, fruit and veg is different - they are a higher value crop and so irrigation can pay-off, up to a point.

Igotadose

Worked outdoors in rain showers throughout the day, here on the Dingle Peninsula. Seems like the ground got soaked overnight.
Looks like it'll shower again today.

Wettest hose ban weather in history

DOCARCH

1/3 into June now and still no appreciable rain in Dublin. Just 3.8mm so far this month in Dublin 16.

MJohnston

DOCARCH wrote: »

1/3 into June now and still no appreciable rain in Dublin. Just 3.8mm so far this month in Dublin 16.

What really matters for Dublin though is what's happening over the mountains. I'd say today will change those totals quite a bit, but it's a shame there are no official stations up there!

Oneiric 3

Came across this map on the Met Eireann twitter page that shows 'drought stress levels' around the country at the moment:



Seems very hi res to the point were you can actually pick out individual fields.

Higher res image here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaE1LM2WoAAMMqj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Mortelaro

Downpour here



https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1270664300005339136?s=19

nacho libre

It's going to turn humid over the weekend. It looks like there may not be enough rain to satisfy farmers in the west and North west over the next seven days, whereas farmers in the east and south east maybe sick of rain come next weekend.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Came across this map on the Met Eireann twitter page that shows 'drought stress levels' around the country at the moment:



Seems very hi res to the point were you can actually pick out individual fields.

Higher res image here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaE1LM2WoAAMMqj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

If you take that map at face value it looks as if most of the country was actually "wetter than normal" (green) in April/May.
Eg - look at Wicklow - almost all green.

We all know that pretty much nowhere in the country was wetter than normal in that time, so the researchers mis-interpreted the raw data.
What the satellite data showed was wet-lands and bogs appearing greener than normal due to being drier than normal (i.e. soils usually too waterlogged for growth now have vegetation growing on them as the ground dried and warmed).

Oneiric 3

Neddyusa wrote: »

If you take that map at face value it looks as if most of the country was actually "wetter than normal" (green) in April/May.
Eg - look at Wicklow - almost all green.

We all know that pretty much nowhere in the country was wetter than normal in that time, so the researchers mis-interpreted the raw data.
What the satellite data showed was wet-lands and bogs appearing greener than normal due to being drier than normal (i.e. soils usually too waterlogged for growth now have vegetation growing on them as the ground dried and warmed).

Yes, there did seem to be some misleading information in the actual text below the image alright. No where in Ireland (or areas around the Met Éireann recording stations at least) this last spring came out wetter than normal, or anywhere near it.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

It's going to turn humid over the weekend. It looks like there may not be enough rain to satisfy farmers in the west and North west over the next seven days, whereas farmers in the east and south east maybe sick of rain come next weekend.

One thing that thee and me can be sure of Nacho, is that while we may be going through a troubling for many dry spell at the moment, that when the rains do eventually come back to the west, they shall do in style.

Reckless Abandonment

MJohnston wrote: »

What really matters for Dublin though is what's happening over the mountains. I'd say today will change those totals quite a bit, but it's a shame there are no official stations up there!

My garden doesn't care whats happening in the mountains

Kutebride

How are we missing those showers all around us. Some colours of clouds all around us. Meath. I will surely jinx it as I step outside

Gonzo

The farmers have been crying out for rain for the past few weeks, they are certainly going to be getting their wish over the next 10 days.

Close to 90mm of rain expected to fall over the next 7 to 10 days. I've a feeling we will see places exceeding 100mm easily.



The GFS, ECM and GEM are now all unsettled right up the end of their runs.

Neddyusa

Gonzo wrote: »

The farmers have been crying out for rain for the past few weeks, they are certainly going to be getting their wish over the next 10 days.

Close to 90mm of rain expected to fall over the next 7 to 10 days. I've a feeling we will see places exceeding 100mm easily.



The GFS, ECM and GEM are now all unsettled right up the end of their runs.

A lot of talk of rain for the past 10 days but only very small amounts materialised - until today in the East.
Finally that's a chart that would bring drought relief for most farmers across the country. If its still there tomorrow I'll believe!