I want a shutdown NOW!

begbysback

Some people in here make Donald Trump look like a genius, chill with the lockdown people, it cannot logically be implemented and is nowhere near necessary.

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I am following several epidemiologists and i would like to stick with that thank you.

Well the ones you were quoting and commenting on were not epidemiologists.

Now which ones are you following that you have such bad comprehension of what is going on ?

WHO's mantra to test, test, test and isolate is the key to bringing rates of contagion down and controlling it so your health system does not get overwhelmed. Social distancing works in conjunction with that.

When that does not work, you need to tighten your measures, so that the spread doesn't accelerate, rather quickly.

We are weeks behind in testing. We are fighting blindfolded. We cannot identify who is infected and who to isolate. They are in the wild and so are their contacts, from weeks ago. That's how it snowballs.

oceanman

begbysback wrote: »

Some people in here make Donald Trump look like a genius, chill with the lockdown people, it cannot logically be implemented and is nowhere near necessary.

eh..yes it is, since about this time two weeks ago.

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

WHO's mantra to test, test, test and isolate is the key to bringing rates of contagion down and controlling it so your health system does not get overwhelmed. Social distancing works in conjunction with that.



When that does not work, you need to tighten your measures, so that the spread doesn't accelerate, rather quickly.

This is exactly what I am saying??? I have posted SEVERAL who articles in fact. But they say lockdowns alone will not work.

It is the WHO themselves i am quoting.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0322/1124657-who-coronavirus/

Here. Its not the RULE its the compliance. That is the issue.

What exactly are you going to do ??? People are already working from home and social distancing.

The ones who aren't are the issue ...and a lockdown probably wont make them ..you can try it. Its not the strictness of the rule ..its the community engagement and compliance.

Stricter rules don't necessarily make people comply more.

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

This is exactly what I am saying??? I have posted SEVERAL who articles in fact. But they say lockdowns alone will not work.

It is the WHO themselves i am quoting.

Yeah, you are still not getting it.

When the testing is over run and there are potentially 40 to 50,000 cases pending stretching back over 10 days and you can only deal with 2,000 per day, how long before contact tracing becomes irrelevant, because in the meantime anyone of the 40-50000 awaiting tests who are positive for covid19 have been in contact previously with others and it goes circular ?

Any lockdown would be to make sure that of the 40-50k awaiting the tests and subsequent lab results (days later again) or their families or their colleagues dont spread it any further !

You cannot do what WHO are suggesting. IE Test and isolate, repeat and rinse.

Are you getting it now ?

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

Yeah, you are still not getting it.


When the testing is over run and there are potentially 40 to 50,000 cases pending stretching back over 10 days and you can only deal with 2,000 per day, how long before contact tracing becomes irrelevant, because in the meantime anyone of the 40-50000 who are positive for covid19 have been in contact previously with others and it goes circular ?


Any lockdown would be to make sure that of the 40-50k awaiting the tests or their families or their colleagues dont spread it any further !


Are you getting it now ?

Then a lockdown won't work.And YOU don't get it.

You can't enforce a total lock down to the point of self isolation of 50k people.

They will not comply.
The failure of testing during the lockdown is disastrous.

I keep telling you its compliance.

Irish people aren't following the rules NOW they are not going to follow stricter rules and we certainly don't have enough guards to make them.

I wouldn't rely on lockdown if i were in the Irish govt.

People will just go on as there are now.

Either you get people to comply with the law ..or you have no law.

And the who are saying without doing as they are suggesting it will not work.

So that is a failure of GOVT.

Why do think these present measures are not working? Is it just they don't work and drs are wrong ..or that people aren't doing them?

I think tis the latter. People are not complying. And if they don't comply with a lockdown ..that won't work either.

And you get italy.

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Then a lockdown won't work.And YOU don't get it.

You can't enforce a total lock down to the point of self isolation of 50k people.

They will not comply.
The failure of testing during the lockdown is disastrous.

FFS. Get social distancing out of your head. You are confusing yourself.

The WHO instructions to test test test and isolate assumes and expects brevity.

If you do not test and isolate quickly and regularly, you are fighting blindfolded not knowing who is infected, and the numbers multiply through communities and work places. There is a backlog going back 10 days. The virus can escalate exponentially in a very short period of time.

HOW do you not get this ? Any suggested lockdown would be to protect those not infected so that it doesn't escalate to proportions that out health care system cannot cope with! Its THAT simple.

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

HOW do you not get this ? Any suggested lockdown would be to protect those not infected so that it doesn't escalate to proportions that out health care system cannot cope with! Its THAT simple.

I KNOW.

BUT PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING TO FOLLOW IT. THAT HAS BEEN MADE OBVIOUS

THEY HAVE HAD 50,000k people break the law in Italy. And that was only the ones they bothered arresting.

ITS NOT GOING TO MAKE PEOPLE DO IT.

You have to get people to comply that is the whole point. And right now that is proving difficult.

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

FFS. Get social distancing out of your head. You are confusing yourself.

The WHO instructions to test test test and isolate assumes and expects brevity.

If you do not test and isolate quickly and regularly, you are fighting blindfolded not knowing who is infected, and the numbers multiply through communities and work places. There is a backlog going back 10 days. The virus can escalate exponentially in a very short period of time.

HOW do you not get this ? Any suggested lockdown would be to protect those not infected so that it doesn't escalate to proportions that out health care system cannot cope with! Its THAT simple.

I didn't mention social distancing i mentioned self isolation which is stricter than any shutdown.

You realize in the UK shut down and in EVERY shutdown you can leave your house. You can go to work right now. You can go to the shops and go for exercise etc.

And people are still going out into PACKED london trains in the morning even with that it was all over the news.

Without testing ...a shutdown is not enough.

DO YOU GET THAT?

So those 50k people awaiting tests to be available would still be leaving the house potentially during a shutdown if they don't isolate.

I mean we have seen people have it but have no symptoms. But they are still shedding its why testing is so important. A lockdown is NOT a replacement for testing.
And during a lock down 20% of the population will still have to work ..health care workers ..for us to have food electricity water etc. The guards.
They will not be able to part-take in a shutdown.

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I didn't mention social distancing i mentioned self isolation which is stricter than any shutdown.

You realize in the UK shut down and in EVERY shutdown you can leave your house. You can go to work right now. You can go to the shops and go for exercise etc.

STOP, please. Read what I have posted and stop with the capital letters, like its a battle of wits. I am trying to explain something to you.

I understand fully the seriousness of the situation and have done for weeks.

Despite the Irish figures published, the figures themselves are hiding something. Pending tests, a lot of them. Our figures are much worse than those published. A lot worse. We haven't been testing people who have been presented themselves with symptoms. The number is now 40 to 50,000 awaiting tests and results showing some symptoms that need to be tested.

50,000 people who have been in contact with other family members and colleagues previously going back 10 days.

Covid 19 has a reproduction rate (RO) of 2.2. Meaning for every one person, they infect 2.2 people. In turn that number rises exponentialy.

Further tighter measures is to make sure that doesn't happen quickly because we are not testing and isolating people quickly enough. Otherwise in 2 weeks time, well......

DeVore

ILYVs.... chill dude, step away, be with your family. I'm not making a comment on your points, just you seem stressed as we all are. :^/

STB, might be no harm too

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

STOP. Read what I have posted.


I understand fully the seriousness of the situation and have done for weeks.


Despite the figures published, they are hiding something. Our figures are much worse than those published. We haven't been testing people who have been presented themselves with symptoms. The number is now 40 to 50,000 awaiting results showing some symptoms that need to be tested.


50,000 people who have been in contact with other family members and colleagues previously going back 10 days.


Covid 19 has a reproduction rate (RO) of 2.2. Meaning for every one person, they infect 2.2 people. In turn that number rises exponentialy.



Further tighter measures is to make sure that doesn't happen quickly because we are not testing and isolating people quickly enough. Otherwise in 2 weeks time, well......

Firstly its at least 14 days not ten. And it can be much much more.

Reproduction rates don't work like that. They are very flexible. Someone could infect no one ( I HAVENT LEFT THE HOUSE IN 8 DAYS) someone else could infect many.

People awaiting testing are being asked to self isolate.


https://www.thejournal.ie/should-self-isolate-while-waiting-for-a-coronavirus-test-5052287-Mar2020/

That is IF they are doing it. They can't be MORE shutdown than that.

Because simply shutting them down might not do anything as they will still be allowed to leave the house 3 times a day.

ILoveYourVibes

Firstly its at least 14 days not ten. And it can be much much more.

Actually i remember being told about a test in china where a woman was tested positive and had no symptoms and was tested over 30 days later ..and STILL had the virus and STILL had no symptoms.

ILoveYourVibes

DeVore wrote: »

ILYVs.... chill dude, step away, be with your family. I'm not making a comment on your points, just you seem stressed as we all are. :^/

STB, might be no harm too

I am fine. I will moderate my comments better. Sorry.:)

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Firstly its at least 14 days not ten. And it can be much much more.

Reproduction rates don't work like that. They are very flexible. Someone could infect no one ( I HAVENT LEFT THE HOUSE IN 8 DAYS) someone else could infect many.

People awaiting testing are being asked to self isolate.


https://www.thejournal.ie/should-self-isolate-while-waiting-for-a-coronavirus-test-5052287-Mar2020/

That is IF they are doing it. They can't be MORE shutdown than that.

Because simply shutting them down might not do anything as they will still be allowed to leave the house 3 times a day.

No. Last time.

People awaiting tests are those who have been experiencing symptoms and self isolating already for 4-10 days.

Those 40-50,000 people in turn appllied for tests and the results and are still waiting in some case 10 days later again. That will be delayed even further as we do not have the capacity (for reasons unknown) to test that many, so they take further weeks to clear.

They are not isolated. They are in their family homes and their families may in turn not be and are out in communities and in work.

Repeated Testing and Isolation expects brevity. I cannot make it any clearer.

El_Duderino 09

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

The uk hasn't a ****ing clue what they are doing.

The uk has a strategy. Everyone will get it but we need people to get it at a rate they can deal with (very ambitious and probably not realistic).

Johnson has avoided making a courageous decision at every point. Instead of being any way proactive He has waited for the situation to require everything he has done. Leaving pubs open and asking people not to go to them, was about the most cowardly decision I’ve ever seen a politician make.

Total coward.

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

No. Last time.

People awaiting tests are those who have been experiencing symptoms and self isolating already or 4-10 days.

Those 40-50,000 people in turn appllied for tests and the results and are still waiting in some case 10 days later again. That will be delayed even further as we do not have the capacity (for reasons unknown) to test that many, so they take further weeks to clear.

They are not isolated. They are in their family homes and their families may in turn not be and are out in communities and in work.

Repeated Testing and Isolation expects brevity. I cannot make it any clearer.

Hey ..I think Beasty wants us to be ...lighter when we post. I never thought you were being aggressive or anything. I think you are passionate which i like.

But i think if we want to continue posting we have to comply with his attitude.

I think you are mistaken. People who are waiting on tests the 40k. They are not waiting on results. They are awaiting actual tests still.

And they are self isolating. You can look in the thread about it. It has a poll...you have no symptoms or you do etc.

They are self isolating though.

If they get a positive result ...that doesn't change. They are still self isolating. That's it. They are not meant to go to the hospital.

They will just trace contacts etc. But this is very delayed too. (My brother is actually doing this now. He is a civil servant from another dept but he was brought in to do this).

Imo anyone waiting for a test could try and trace their own contacts it might help.

Self isolation is supposed to mean from your familiy too etc.

The guidelines are to use text etc. Not to touch things your family use etc.

begbysback

oceanman wrote: »

eh..yes it is, since about this time two weeks ago.

Believe me, if we had an enforced lockdown 2 weeks ago and had only 6 deaths up to today, people would start going bananas by now and asking what’s the point.

ILoveYourVibes

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The uk has a strategy. Everyone will get it but we need people to get it at a rate they can deal with (very ambitious and probably not realistic).

I know we are staggering to safe the health service. I was saying that for ages.

We will all get it. We are just trying to slow it.

But a UK style shutdown without testing won't do it.

Its been shown again and again testing is key.

That is what we need to pressure the govt on.

ILoveYourVibes

begbysback wrote: »

Believe me, if we had an enforced lockdown 2 weeks ago and had only 6 deaths up to today, people would start going bananas by now and asking what’s the point.

Exactly.

It has to be sustainable. Its sad but its reality.

And particularly if some in society would ignore the shutdown. People would then go why bother. And if they can't get tests etc why bother.

And if you keep seeing govt ministers not social distancing on social media pics for pr. :rolleyes: I mean they could at least keep the image up for the public.

People aren't obeying the rules now even. Even people posting #stay at home online all the time. I got a DM by one such person saying he is having people over etc.

Thing is a shutdown UK style won't change anything for people here who are doing what they should.

I am already self isolating practically! :P

I wish we’d go into lockdown and soon! Having tension in my own home over how to handle this.

Just tell people out straight what they can’t do. Bring in fines for people not following.

ILoveYourVibes

Deleted User wrote: »

Just tell people out straight what they can’t do. .

They already have though.

Bring in fines for people not following

Good idea.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I wish we’d go into lockdown and soon! Having tension in my own home over how to handle this.

Just tell people out straight what they can’t do. Bring in fines for people not following.

I think we should stop calling it a lock-down, because it's not a lock-down. We're not going to lock-down the way China did.

Enforced social distancing. Clear and unambiguous guidelines for how people should behave, with the police stepping in to enforce the rules. Hefty Fines initially, with prison time for those who re-offend. Clear up the confusion. Show a strong will behind the need to protect the public from itself.

MetzgerMeister

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

I for one, do not want my civil liberties removed.

Civil liberties won't be of much use to you when you're in a wooden box.

ILoveYourVibes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

MetzgerMeister wrote: »

Civil liberties won't be of much use to you when you're in a wooden box.

At tops 9% of people will be in a wooden box. That is why its not motivating.

Its only causing panic the wrong kind of action when you say it. It only encourages the hoarders etc.

Most people know ...they are going to be fine.

Even my parents are being hard to manage. My dad keeps going out playing golf.

ANd of course we have to protect the vulnerable etc. And the health service.

But i am young healthy etc ...i am not going to end up in a box. And that is what most are thinking.

The scaremongering is only going to work on the wrong people.

MetzgerMeister

MetzgerMeister wrote: »

Civil liberties won't be of much use to you when you're in a wooden box.

Just as it'll feel just wonderful when his parents are being cremated... At least, he stood up and defended his rights!

ILoveYourVibes

Deleted User wrote: »

Just as it'll feel just wonderful when his parents are being cremated... At least, he stood up and defended his rights!

Does he live with his parents?

Are his parents vulnerable? Just found out my parents arent. I am still staying home but still.

Its the mind game we have to win.

MetzgerMeister

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

At tops 9% of people will be in a wooden box. That is why its not motivating.

Its only causing panic the wrong kind of action when you say it. It only encourages the hoarders etc.

Most people know ...they are going to be fine.

Even my parents are being hard to manage. My dad keeps going out playing golf.

ANd of course we have to protect the vulnerable etc. And the health service.

But i am young healthy etc ...i am not going to end up in a box. And that is what most are thinking.

The scaremongering is only going to work on the wrong people.

That 9% could rise if people spread it. It's not about the figures as they are now but what they could be if people don't start copping on.

eviltimeban

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

We will all get it. We are just trying to slow it.

We won't all get it. 0.06% of the world's population have caught it to date. How do you see that going to 100%?

RandomViewer

Skyfloater wrote: »

The people who are calling for a lockdown "for however long it takes" should reacquaint themselves with the devastation caused by the Great Depression of the 1930's, the millions of lives foreshortened by malnutrition, hypothermia and lack of basic healthcare. Far, far more than covid 19 will ever claim.
On another point, the median age of the deceased in Italy is 80.5! That's a fine age to last for. What do some people here think happens when you hit your eighty's?
What happens is, you get sick and then you die. Why is that such a shock for some people.

It's your .job to dispose of the bodies, no PPE as you are obviously invincible