Airbnb bubble bursts - properties to rent for everyone

micosoft

boege wrote: »

Irish independent 21st March. Conclusion was that AirBnB was of limited impact. Foreign students and workers (made redundant) leaving is likely to have a bigger impact on accommodation availability. Probably get a better view next month.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/homes-for-rent-climb-as-airbnb-market-tumbles-39063281.html


There has seen a 64pc rise in listings since the start of the month. There have been almost 400 adverts, compared with 242 in the same period last year.

Architect and assistant professor at UCD Orla Hegarty said increases in the number of properties for rent is likely to lead to a fall in costs. She said: "If there are more properties for rental, prices will be lower."

Migrants were leaving and students were returning home, freeing up properties, she said.

Economist Ronan Lyons, of Trinity College Dublin, said the increase in properties advertised for rent is likely to be related to the collapse in tourism, cutting demand.

"Most of the country has seen almost no change in properties advertised to rent, compared to a year ago. But the number of smaller properties in central Dublin, where demand for short-term lets is concentrated, has grown almost two-thirds," he said.

However, the capital's market needs 1,000 new homes a week to keep rents affordable.


"Thus, while a one-off shift from the short-term to long-term rental market may be welcome news for many, it does not change the huge underlying need to build new rental homes," he added.

So basically an increase of 158 properties in a city of over one million people.
- This is hardly a seismic figure. But if you have a preconceived notion it may be the supporting "evidence" you want.
- Corona Virus will impact a lot of immigrant families who wish to return home asap.
- Many landlords will rather sell than rent which still releases property but does not expand the rental market.

I'm not seeing a massive change her tbh. I'd wait another two months to see clearer impact. I know this is hard for some people to grasp... but... what matters is not the cost of renting (or houses) but affordability. If we enter a recession with mass unemployment in many sectors it does not matter if the prices halve or even quarter - people will not be able to afford it. And most/many landlords have a minimum cost structure so they will sell/hand back/face repossession.

In short. The folk that think a global pandemic and depression will fix our housing challenge (not crisis) may be in for a shock.

As an aside I know many folk who rent out a room or move out to rent via AirBnB to make ends meet. The cartoon vilification of AirBnB reflects a zero sum game played by some folk. It's helped many people generate an income from their only asset.

Yurt2

In reply to the above, I'd strongly disagree with the characterisation of it being a housing challenge rather than a crisis.

It's very much a crisis, albeit one that's unfolding slowly in front of us. Criseses don't always come like a meteor from above.

We've known for a long time that social cohesion has begun to fray with our housing provision model. That doesn't matter to the people who have a beggar thy neighbor approach to both the rental and property purchase market.

I'm one of the posters that has posted at length in often heated threads about housing. I'm of the strong belief that solutions to housing are within our reach, but certain sections of society are going to have to swallow that we can't have a business as usual approach any more. The alternative is unconscionable both economically and morally for our society.

And yes, I'd agree that Airbnb is only a small part of the picture, but on balance, it's a service that does more harm than good, and the state has every right to step in.

ShatterAlan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/airbnb-bubble-bursts-during-coronavirus-1.4209742?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Flife-and-style%2Ftravel%2Fairbnb-bubble-bursts-during-coronavirus-1.4209742

(no full linky)

Delighted with this flood of properties on to the rental market.

Airbnb has done huge damage to ordinary people here trying to find a roof and pay rent.

Apparently the number of homes/apartments for rent has soared 64% since the start of the coronavirus crisis.

This is a silver lining as these owners have no choice but to turn to long term renters.

A boon for the hotels no doubt.

ShatterAlan

punisher5112 wrote: »

What I'd love to see is the vulture funds getting a kicking and about time oh and the tax that many of them pay is only €200-€250 a year..... Not a cent on rental income.

These funds snapped up huge amounts of properties for buttons but then charge €2k €3k €4k and so on.....

The government needs to sort this mess and tax the fook out of them....

But sure isn't that capitalism? Great as it is.


Looney-lefty tree-fuggers like yourself p1ssing about unfair rules and winner takes all.


Go back to Venezuela, why don't ya.

ShatterAlan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Without the "vulture" funds there would not have been a brick laid on any house or apartment in the last 10 years.

Things are more complicated than you make out.

Really?


Could you elaborate?

ILoveYourVibes

whisky_galore wrote: »

Or they can just sit this out.

Haven't you heard?

They can't suspend rent for three months for coronavirus. So how could they live without AIRBNB RENT ? They must put those properties on the market at once or go broke.

punisher5112

ShatterAlan wrote: »

But sure isn't that capitalism? Great as it is.


Looney-lefty tree-fuggers like yourself p1ssing about unfair rules and winner takes all.


Go back to Venezuela, why don't ya.

Wtf

suicide_circus

i think a certain amount of non national workers have gone back home too, at least temporarily. As an example there were several chartered repatriation flights by Lot (Polish national airline) from Dublin to Warsaw over the last week. And there were probably others. These may also have freed up housing stock.

PopePalpatine

punisher5112 wrote: »

Wtf

I think someone's cranky that their income's been wiped out.

LuckyLloyd

suicide_circus wrote: »

i think a certain amount of non national workers have gone back home too, at least temporarily. As an example there were several chartered repatriation flights by Lot (Polish national airline) from Dublin to Warsaw over the last week. And there were probably others. These may also have freed up housing stock.

They might have, but I doubt the landlord made up their house like a hotel with little folded towels before putting them up on Daft.

The vast majority of new stock is Airbnb.

micosoft

Yurt! wrote: »

In reply to the above, I'd strongly disagree with the characterisation of it being a housing challenge rather than a crisis.

It's very much a crisis, albeit one that's unfolding slowly in front of us. Criseses don't always come like a meteor from above.

We've known for a long time that social cohesion has begun to fray with our housing provision model. That doesn't matter to the people who have a beggar thy neighbor approach to both the rental and property purchase market.

I'm one of the posters that has posted at length in often heated threads about housing. I'm of the strong belief that solutions to housing are within our reach, but certain sections of society are going to have to swallow that we can't have a business as usual approach any more. The alternative is unconscionable both economically and morally for our society.

And yes, I'd agree that Airbnb is only a small part of the picture, but on balance, it's a service that does more harm than good, and the state has every right to step in.

I was very deliberate in my usage of words because it is not a crisis and when we constantly misuse words they become meaningless. Moreover there is a specific group who constantly move on from "crisis to crisis" and make it their business to make things look like a crisis.

And for two good reasons we should not use the word crisis.

- Go to any other developed capital city and you will see the same. Copenhagen, San Francisco, Brussels and you have the same or worse challenge. The reality is that the figures are inline and most of the change is down to a break down in family units, lack of mobility (plenty of houses around the country), the rough sleeping culture which is a drugs/mental0health/antisocial behaviour issues.

- The crisis talk is a very easy way for people to avoid the fact that housing is a long term policy issue that cannot be waved away easily and relies on making difficult long term decisions about:
- Effective utility charges i.e. water that will fund making serviced land (actually one of the biggest challenges).
- Effective property and mid-income taxes to fund council services
- Changes in planning law to prevent the average voter from blocking new developments. The same people protesting for more housing need an *to indicate "except where I live".
- Building a skilled base in the building sector requires time and we still face the aftermath of 2008 which gutted this sector of businesses and skilled tradesmen.
- Unrealistic expectations of Irish who want low density, high cost, unsustainable public transport housing solutions.

These are all long term shifts that require 5-7 years of lead time to effect. Instead we have the crisis opportunists who propose badly thought out and unrealistic proposals which fail every time . You may have a strong believe that housing is "within our reach" but you'll excuse me if I am dubious and have heard it all before.

Idbatterim

Many saying people will leave Ireland. Won’t many Irish return here for the same reason? This isn’t done Irish phenomena!

reg114

micosoft wrote: »

So basically an increase of 158 properties in a city of over one million people.
- This is hardly a seismic figure. But if you have a preconceived notion it may be the supporting "evidence" you want.
- Corona Virus will impact a lot of immigrant families who wish to return home asap.
- Many landlords will rather sell than rent which still releases property but does not expand the rental market.

I'm not seeing a massive change her tbh. I'd wait another two months to see clearer impact. I know this is hard for some people to grasp... but... what matters is not the cost of renting (or houses) but affordability. If we enter a recession with mass unemployment in many sectors it does not matter if the prices halve or even quarter - people will not be able to afford it. And most/many landlords have a minimum cost structure so they will sell/hand back/face repossession.

In short. The folk that think a global pandemic and depression will fix our housing challenge (not crisis) may be in for a shock.

As an aside I know many folk who rent out a room or move out to rent via AirBnB to make ends meet. The cartoon vilification of AirBnB reflects a zero sum game played by some folk. It's helped many people generate an income from their only asset.

Yes it is very early days but landlords will really start to feel the pinch in the coming weeks if there is no rent coming in. Im predicting a collapse in the price of rental property in this country similar to the 30% plus drops we saw in 2008, the difference this time is the drops will come a whole lot quicker. You are going to see the economy contract massively, huge layoffs, with any building plans grinding to a halt. The upside will be the exodus of foreign workers which will free up alot of rental accommodation in the cities and again in the cities which will force rental prices down.

Remember tourism from abroad will be decimated at least for the rest of 2020 if not longer. We rely on huge numbers of tourist from the UK and north america every year so the air bnb landlords wont see a recovery any time soon. Once they float their assets onto the rental market they will most likely seek to tie them up for at least a calendar year. This is all excellent news for renters, providing of course these renters still have a job to enable them to avail of the reduced rent.

Edgware

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Haven't you heard?

They can't suspend rent for three months for coronavirus. So how could they live without AIRBNB RENT ? They must put those properties on the market at once or go broke.

Putting the properties back on the long term lease market is going to be an option taken upby a lot of landlords. An empty apartment is like an empty taxi i.e. not earning.
Whats wrong in earning 12000 to 16000 ( and more) a year from a property which in most cases is an investment anyway. Once you get tenants in that pay the rent the work is quite limited for the return.

The beauty of Airbnb was of course the reasonable rate we paid when using them compared to the extortionate rate charged by hotels especially in Dublin when there was a big concert, match etc.
There is a market for 4 star hotels but there is also a market for budget accommodation.
In any case I think that this Virus situation will turn a lot of people off travelling abroad.
The caravan in Courtown will look a good option.

Eric Cartman

Edgware wrote: »

Putting the properties back on the long term lease market is going to be an option taken upby a lot of landlords. An empty apartment is like an empty taxi i.e. not earning.
Whats wrong in earning 12000 to 16000 ( and more) a year from a property which in most cases is an investment anyway. Once you get tenants in that pay the rent the work is quite limited for the return.

The beauty of Airbnb was of course the reasonable rate we paid when using them compared to the extortionate rate charged by hotels especially in Dublin when there was a big concert, match etc.
There is a market for 4 star hotels but there is also a market for budget accommodation.
In any case I think that this Virus situation will turn a lot of people off travelling abroad.
The caravan in Courtown will look a good option.

The issue is that the type of properties on airbnb have a ling term rent of 3000 a month + , and were making 4500 + a month on airbnb , a lot have been out of the long term net for 2 years and can return at whatever rental price they want, I suspect most landlords will return them at a median figure around 3800+ and hope a corporate takes it

listermint

Idbatterim wrote: »

hang on! Government planning policy has resulted in the property crisis or opportunity dreamland, depending on your position! Airbnb have not created the farce around affordability, wanting rip off prices, is an irish government position...

that luxury social housing in dundrum, 25 year lease, jesus if it seemed insane before, its beyond belief now!

Erm.... how do you explain AirBnB being one of the problems the world over then? every major capital city in the world has an AirBnB problem (massively) and yet youve rounded it all down to Dublin Planning Laws.... ??

PommieBast

mariaalice wrote: »

I thought air BnB had been banned in Dublin?

From what I know AirBnB needs planning permission which DCC has a policy of not granting. Clearly an enforcement issue.

beauf

listermint wrote: »

Erm.... how do you explain AirBnB being one of the problems the world over then? every major capital city in the world has an AirBnB problem (massively) and yet youve rounded it all down to Dublin Planning Laws.... ??

It's certainly portrayed as such in the media. And in forums like this. Especially by the drama hounds. It certainly has its problems. But its a very small % of the rental market unless there's a massive un-reporting of the numbers in stats.

beauf

reg114 wrote: »

Yes it is very early days but landlords will really start to feel the pinch in the coming weeks if there is no rent coming in. Im predicting a collapse in the price of rental property in this country similar to the 30% plus drops we saw in 2008, the difference this time is the drops will come a whole lot quicker. You are going to see the economy contract massively, huge layoffs, with any building plans grinding to a halt. The upside will be the exodus of foreign workers which will free up alot of rental accommodation in the cities and again in the cities which will force rental prices down.

Remember tourism from abroad will be decimated at least for the rest of 2020 if not longer. We rely on huge numbers of tourist from the UK and north america every year so the air bnb landlords wont see a recovery any time soon. Once they float their assets onto the rental market they will most likely seek to tie them up for at least a calendar year. This is all excellent news for renters, providing of course these renters still have a job to enable them to avail of the reduced rent.

I'm not sure the building industry really got back to where it was. There won't be the same numbers leaving as was the last time.

A lot of foreign workers are in high paid multi nationals. They might weather the crisis. Might be better to stay here than go home.

Lots will change but I'm not convinced it will be obvious as people are suggesting.

Idbatterim

listermint wrote: »

Erm.... how do you explain AirBnB being one of the problems the world over then? every major capital city in the world has an AirBnB problem (massively) and yet youve rounded it all down to Dublin Planning Laws.... ??

dublins planning laws, massively curtain supply... Dont build more than a few floors in the docklands, have young professionals occupying family houses all over the city and commuting in from up to 100km away. A brilliant model :rolleyes:

walk around dublin, the sheer amount of property lying idle above shops or just in general, is ridiculous!

LuasSimon

beauf wrote: »

I'm not sure the building industry really got back to where it was. There won't be the same numbers leaving as was the last time.

A lot of foreign workers are in high paid multi nationals. They might weather the crisis. Might be better to stay here than go home.

Lots will change but I'm not convinced it will be obvious as people are suggesting.

Whilst there are a lot of foreign workers in multi national Facebook type jobs there are a far greater amount propping up the hospitality business on minimum wage , these people are living week to week and already are struggling to pay rent . These people many of them 3 and 4 to a room are going to be homeless people unless landlords show a bit of Christianity. If this Covid lasts 3-4 months you’ll have hospitality workers doing all they can to get back to their own countries . Not sure who’ll be left to work in hotels when they reopen unless Irish people start doing waiter or kitchen porter

paw patrol

Bambi wrote: »

Cat well and truly out of the bag now, time to ban Airbnb and short term rentals. No more messing around.

and eliminate a large chunk of tourism? short term view that.

hotels in Dublin (esp) are over booked and very expensive .
Airbnb allows people esp families afford trips here - we would be killing that golden goose for the economy.

beauf

LuasSimon wrote: »

Whilst there are a lot of foreign workers in multi national Facebook type jobs there are a far greater amount propping up the hospitality business on minimum wage , these people are living week to week and already are struggling to pay rent . These people many of them 3 and 4 to a room are going to be homeless people unless landlords show a bit of Christianity. If this Covid lasts 3-4 months you’ll have hospitality workers doing all they can to get back to their own countries . Not sure who’ll be left to work in hotels when they reopen unless Irish people start doing waiter or kitchen porter

For sure. Same thing happened last crisis/crash. A lot more will be in our social welfare system now, will they be able to get home, and will they be better off here. LL can't evict them. But there's a lot well off people too.

Captain Havoc

After my dad died, we looked at putting my mum's property into Airbnb, one of the thinkings was that it would keep me occupied while I look after her. We eventually came to the conclusion that the extra time needed to run it would not be worth the work it involved to put in. So the houses are long term rentals, which are not making a profit, so I can understand why people would look at Airbnb.

mariaalice

Possible a separate point, but what this shows is the number of people trying to live off the income from air BnB alone or combined with another precarious way of making money, everything for singing in a pub a few nights a week, to yoga, pilates classes, a bit of driving, self-employed catering and others.

All of which is now gone overnight, far more people doing this that you would realise.

mariaalice

mariaalice wrote: »

Possible a separate point, but what this shows is the number of people trying to live off the income from air BnB alone or combined with another precarious way of making money, everything for singing in a pub a few nights a week, to yoga, pilates classes, a bit of driving, self-employed catering and others.

All of which is now gone overnight, far more people doing this that you would realise.

There was an AirBnB host on liveline yesterday and that was his worry. No income. Mortgage to pay.

Jizique

paw patrol wrote: »

and eliminate a large chunk of tourism? short term view that.

hotels in Dublin (esp) are over booked and very expensive .
Airbnb allows people esp families afford trips here - we would be killing that golden goose for the economy.

They won’t be overbooked for a few years.
There won’t be a hotel built in Dublin for 5 years, no bank will finance it

LuckyLloyd

paw patrol wrote: »

and eliminate a large chunk of tourism? short term view that.

hotels in Dublin (esp) are over booked and very expensive .
Airbnb allows people esp families afford trips here - we would be killing that golden goose for the economy.

Having our workforce be able to get affordable accommodation within commutable distance of major employment areas is far more important than tourism. Particularly when we have seen a significant increase of hotel accommodation over the past 3 years.

We need to prioritise our tax paying citizens over the preference of tourists every time.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Having our workforce be able to get affordable accommodation within commutable distance of major employment areas is far more important than tourism. Particularly when we have seen a significant increase of hotel accommodation over the past 3 years.

We need to prioritise our tax paying citizens over the preference of tourists every time.

Tourism generates in the region of €7 billion for the Irish economy every year, so isn’t to be ignored.

Dyr

paw patrol wrote: »

and eliminate a large chunk of tourism? short term view that.

hotels in Dublin (esp) are over booked and very expensive .
Airbnb allows people esp families afford trips here - we would be killing that golden goose for the economy.

It's not a golden goose for country, the negatives have been huge.

You want to offer an alternative to hotels open an actual B&B