CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Professor Moriarty

New Home wrote: »

Triage gets into play before you get a bed into ICU, not after.



Give this person a strawman!



Choices on this scale are new. And so far we haven't needed a ventilator for each and every citizen, but for the most part whoever needed one got it.

Look, I'm not saying that they set out with the intention of letting every old or sick person die, but that's the end result of what's been happening for the most part. Old or frail people may not be a nation, but they are a class of people, and they're being culled because of the circumstances.

I know when triage is used. My point is that triage is not genocide. What's happening in hospitals is not genocide.

BanditLuke

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

There's no doubt in my mind, they should have locked down earlier...

3 weeks ago, they weren't even sure if they should cancel paddy's day! This was a big indicator to me (and others) that they didn't really fully grasp the seriousness of what was happening elsewhere in Europe!

But there is no point in dwelling on the past. Hopefully they grasp how bad things are now, and we still might have a chance of not turning into the next Italy or Spain...

It all really depends how well we all play our part throughout the country. We've all got to play a blinder now, collectively as a nation. I am confident that we can do it - I see lots of people making a real genuine effort.

Absolutely and its up to us as a people to call out the ones not playing their part, the Gardaí can't do it all themselves this is a nationwide effort.

con747

nimrod86 wrote: »

Anyone want to take a go at explaining to me how manufacturing of semiconductors is an essential service? Please? Anyone? I work in that industry and cannot understand it myself... Almost feel sick reading it, and the thought that my co-workers are still being expected to go in.

Take a look here, https://www.hitachi-hightech.com/global/products/device/semiconductor/life.html

RayCon

Nermal wrote: »

Your industry can keep dust out of a room. You should be able to manage not to be a source of many further infections.

Not where the staff have to de-gown , canteen, toilets etc.

Inquitus

ifElseThen wrote: »

Morphine pain management and sedation most likely.

Morphine depresses the respiratory system, so not sure if it would be used in this case, but certainly sedation.

New Home

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I know when triage is used. My point is that triage is not genocide. What's happening in hospitals is not genocide.

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

Doc07

New Home wrote: »

It is genocide. This is not a matter of deciding what's better for the individual, this is being done due to lack of resources and due to the health services being overwhelmed. I know perfectly well that choices have been made before now, but only during war times, or times of epidemics (and not in Western Europe in recent times) have resources being removed from one patient who might (might, not will) to be given to another who might (might, not will) have a better chance of survival. I'm not talking about palliative care here. You wouldn't see all those doctors and nurses in tears over this, if this had been routine (and I'm not saying they're not sad when somebody dies in normal circumstances).

It’s not genocide

voluntary

Was the 8:45 HSE announcement already?

johnfás

cameramonkey wrote: »

We dont really know if it skews ICU numbers because we don't know if the nursing home patients made it that far.


I suppose all the numbers are skewed .



We dont know how many people have the virus because testing is not enough and then we had the fiasco with the system here. Do we even know how many test have been carried out and then processed?



We don't know how many are in ICU because it seem they don't put the numbers that are actually there at the moment, they add up all that have needed ICU treatment at say that is the number. Some people must have left ICU through improvement or death. So their figure is meaningless in many ways.


I think the HSE are being deliberately vague on some issues. They seem to answer questions about testing or equipment shortages with answers that are about what they will hope be the situation in a day or week.


I would like to know, how many ICU beds have we? How many test are being carried out and processed a day? How many test have been carried out? It does not see that difficult answers those questions.

I expect not many have yet left ICU. The average stay in ICU in Italy was nearly 2 weeks and working on the assumption you don’t need ICU for a couple of days after you contract it you are talking 2.5/3 weeks after contraction before leaving ICU.

1641

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Similar choices have been made in every country where the virus is rampant. No country has a ventilator for each and every citizen. Never will.

My point was that such choices are not new at all, they have been going on forever.

There was an Italian doctor on the other night who indicated that people (I am not sure if he meant just elderly people) who need ventilation usually require it ongoing for about 2 weeks and even then a high proportion die. So the frontline doctors are faced with the choice of who is more likely to survive if given scarce ventilation.

cameramonkey

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

Old age and decline.

BrianD3

Great how the state is so concerned about the elderly all of a sudden and wants them to "cocoon" at home. Nice comforting terminology - but have the practicalities of this cocooning been addressed?

If the 10 deaths the other day and the 14 today were nursing home residents, questions have to be asked about standards of care in nursing homes but also, more fundamentally, about how many elderly are in nursing homes because of the shambles that is home care in this country.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/hses-over-reliance-on-nursing-homes-is-not-just-bad-news-for-elderly-its-bad-for-economics-too-34968684.html

There should have been a "Fair Deal" for home care years ago.

In the Budget last October, a million extra hours of home care were announced. A few weeks ago, pre Covid19, I was talking to a consultant geriatrician (who is at the coalface when it comes to discharging patients from hospital into the community) about this and they said that there is no sign of these extra hours and there are still thousands of people waiting on home care packages. Even if they do get them it will usually be a meagre number of hours and very possibly a poor service. The experience described in the below linked thread is apparently common.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045564

The result of all of this is "bed blocking" in acute hospitals (which affects the Covid19 crisis) and also people clustered together in nursing homes when they may have been able to manage at home with some help.

nimrod86

Nermal wrote: »

Your industry can keep dust out of a room. You should be able to manage not to be a source of many further infections.

That's true yeah, but for maintenance tasks people do be crawling over eachother getting parts into awkward spaces. Like a building site
social distancing can't be done properly in the work. A mail the other day from a corporate level told us that if we had to break social distancing for over 30 minutes then we should talk to our manager, they're essentially telling us they know better than HSE guidelines. I'm most worried about getting from the car to the cleanroom through the halls and canteen.

niallo27

RayCon wrote: »

Not where the staff have to de-gown , canteen, toilets etc.

Our canteens have been redesigned and we have a marquee out the front. Every seat 2 meters from each other.

Stheno

New Home wrote: »

The difference is that now Over 65s aren't being treated. There's a damn big difference between someone who's 65 and someone who's 85 or 95.

Where is this happening? I know it is in Italy

Are you saying it's happening in Ireland and if yes, what's your proof?

paul71

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

Professional medical decisions based on the merit of each case, in the face of limited resources.

Un1corn

Some footage from the border of Hubei and Jiangxi. Hubei people are pissed. It also looks like a perfect place for the virus to spread further.

Riot in Hubei

The context appears to be that the Hubei restrictions were lifted but the police from neighbouring Jiangxi province refused to allow people from Hubei access. There are videos of the police forces from Hubei fighting the police force from Jiangxi. Lots of reports coming from Wuhan of lots of new infections also.

For a bit of a look at racism in China I recommend the following. Having worked and been to China many times myself I can assure you what he is saying is true as bizarre as it seems.

Serpentza Racism Video

Hobgoblin11

BrianD3 wrote: »

Great how the state is so concerned about the elderly all of a sudden and wants them to "cocoon" at home. Nice comforting terminology - but have the practicalities of this cocooning been addressed?

If the 10 deaths the other day and the 14 today were nursing home residents, questions have to be asked about standards of care in nursing homes but also, more fundamentally, about how many elderly are in nursing homes because of the shambles that is home care in this country.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/hses-over-reliance-on-nursing-homes-is-not-just-bad-news-for-elderly-its-bad-for-economics-too-34968684.html

There should have been a "Fair Deal" for home care years ago.

In the Budget last October, a million extra hours of home care were announced. A few weeks ago, pre Covid19, I was talking to a consultant geriatrician (who is at the coalface when it comes to discharging patients from hospital into the community) about this and they said that there is no sign of these extra hours and there are still thousands of people waiting on home care packages. Even if they do get them it will usually be a meagre number of hours and very possibly a poor service. The experience described in the below linked thread is apparently common.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045564

The result of all of this is "bed blocking" in acute hospitals (which affects the Covid19 crisis) and also people clustered together in nursing homes when they may have been able to manage at home with some help.

cocoons don't need food, ever seen a larvae eat a hamburger?

New Home

cameramonkey wrote: »

Old age and decline.

So no point in treating anyone over 65 for anything, then, because they'd very likely die anyway? Let's make that over 60, should save us some more trouble.

cameramonkey

johnfás wrote: »

I expect not many have yet left ICU. The average stay in ICU in Italy was nearly 2 weeks and working on the assumption you don’t need ICU for a couple of days after you contract it you are talking 2.5/3 weeks after contraction before leaving ICU.

Many reports say that if you need ICU treatment it is about from the 11 days on. So people getting the virus now who are vulnerable will need high level care in around the 11 days to two weeks time scale.

coastwatch

Is the percentage of community transmissions known or reported for the daily reported new cases?
That will be the real measure of the effectiveness on the new restriction measures introduced last night.
I thought I heard a figure of 52% mentioned on the 6 news, but not sure if that for total cases or for new confirmed cases.

cameramonkey

cameramonkey wrote: »

We dont really know if it skews ICU numbers because we don't know if the nursing home patients made it that far.


I suppose all the numbers are skewed .



We dont know how many people have the virus because testing is not enough and then we had the fiasco with the system here. Do we even know how many test have been carried out and then processed?



We don't know how many are in ICU because it seem they don't put the numbers that are actually there at the moment, they add up all that have needed ICU treatment at say that is the number. Some people must have left ICU through improvement or death. So their figure is meaningless in many ways.


I think the HSE are being deliberately vague on some issues. They seem to answer questions about testing or equipment shortages with answers that are about what they will hope will be the situation in a day or week.


I would like to know, how many ICU beds have we? How many test are being carried out and processed a day? How many test have been carried out? It does not seem that difficult answers those questions.

Is the HSE even being straight with figures to the Government? If I was Leo or Simon I'd be considering redeploying guys from department of finance or CSO to independently audit these numbers.

It would be a better use of resources than the HSE commissioning market research on a public health emergency from Red C Live.

cameramonkey

New Home wrote: »

So no point in treating anyone over 65 for anything, then, because they'd very likely die anyway? Let's make that over 60, should save us some more trouble.

That is very inhumane.

Purple Mountain

BrianD3 wrote: »

Great how the state is so concerned about the elderly all of a sudden and wants them to "cocoon" at home. Nice comforting terminology - but have the practicalities of this cocooning been addressed?

If the 10 deaths the other day and the 14 today were nursing home residents, questions have to be asked about standards of care in nursing homes but also, more fundamentally, about how many elderly are in nursing homes because of the shambles that is home care in this country.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/hses-over-reliance-on-nursing-homes-is-not-just-bad-news-for-elderly-its-bad-for-economics-too-34968684.html

There should have been a "Fair Deal" for home care years ago.

In the Budget last October, a million extra hours of home care were announced. A few weeks ago, pre Covid19, I was talking to a consultant geriatrician (who is at the coalface when it comes to discharging patients from hospital into the community) about this and they said that there is no sign of these extra hours and there are still thousands of people waiting on home care packages. Even if they do get them it will usually be a meagre number of hours and very possibly a poor service. The experience described in the below linked thread is apparently common.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058045564

The result of all of this is "bed blocking" in acute hospitals (which affects the Covid19 crisis) and also people clustered together in nursing homes when they may have been able to manage at home with some help.

There's actually a lot of sense in your post.
Look at the trolley overcrowding where many old people had been left to be exposed to infection and a lack of dignity. (I'm not blaming our health care workers BTW for the overcrowding).
There was no rush to cocoon then.

Professor Moriarty

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

In many ways, triage is natural selection. The virus is killing mostly sick or elderly people. Doctors must decide who has a better chance of survival when there are limited resources. Awful, but that's just how it is. It is not genocide.

is_that_so

voluntary wrote: »

Was the 8:45 HSE announcement already?

At weekends I think they just release them without a briefing, usually in time for the early evening news.

helimachoptor

joeysoap wrote: »

Neighbours near me had visitors all day, including children. Cluster waiting to happen. 3 cars currently. They won’t change.

Neighbours two doors down, up until today the teenage girls boyfriend has been over with mates, today it's just him.

Her mom is probably early 50s and morbidly obese so..

briany

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Have we got today's numbers yet

No, the next Lotto draw is on at 7.45.

Ultimanemo

nimrod86 wrote: »

Anyone want to take a go at explaining to me how manufacturing of semiconductors is an essential service? Please? Anyone? I work in that industry and cannot understand it myself... Almost feel sick reading it, and the thought that my co-workers are still being expected to go in.

If they are used in ventilators or other equipment used in hospitals then they are very essentials

JP Liz V1

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Have we got today's numbers yet

14 deaths (RIP)

New Home

cameramonkey wrote: »

That is very inhumane.

My point exactly.


Anyway, this Spanish doctor called it a genocide, too, and he's faced with it every single day.

(The video someone else posted the other day was removed from YouTube)

Bannasidhe

is_that_so wrote: »

I think there was one mentioned where a medical professional had tested positive.

Many health professionals are testing positive.
My own first cousin works in a Community Care Hospital for the elderly and was sent home last week after a patient tested positive.

Cousin found out today she tested positive. She said it was a matter of time really. They work 12 hour shifts on a ward caring for over 30 elderly and physically very frail people who need help with all their needs. This requires close contact.
The staff are lucky if they have facemasks never mind full PPE.

My cousin has been living in her camper van hooked up to the house leccy since all this began to try and avoid picking up/passing on the virus. Her husband leaves her meals at the door for her. He's a plumber and jury-rigged a loo/shower that she can access from outside.

For the last few weeks, like her colleagues, her life has been working/sleeping and praying that when the virus got in - they knew it would - they could be there for those who would die without their families .

And she will go back to work as soon as she is cleared because she loves her job and the people she cares for. She wants to go back to be there so confused, terrified people have a familiar face there calming them, and so some of those people don't die without seeing a face they know.

Coyote

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

nimrod86

Ultimanemo wrote: »

If they are used in ventilators or other equipment used in hospitals then they are very essentials

Anything being made in this country is at best probably 3-6 months away from being used in a final product though, and that's assuming it leaves the factory today. Manufacturing itself takes weeks. I can't understand why a few weeks shutdown to protect staff isn't being done, and we can all pick up where we left off later, but suppose it's not my profit margins on the line...

rossie1977

I just walked into town to go to chemist which is about a mile and nothing seems to have changed. I would have expected Gardai to be patrolling but no.

Quieter than usual for Saturday evening but don't see big change compared to last day I left house which was Wednesday

tobefrank321

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Your grammar is atrocious. You could have said

" Getting away from us now. Predictable given our one step behind the virus policies over the last month. "

or

"Getting away from them now. Predictable given their one step etc etc"

I respect that you have been hell bent on stirring up shight on this forum. But at least get it right.

Whose side are you actually on. Ours or theirs? Simple question.

RIP to all victims.

Who gives a damn about grammar? People often make mistakes with grammar on here because they are busy.

But he is right about us being entirely reactive and being one step behind. Holohan wanted the restriction on nursing home visits lifted. Good job he was ignored on that one. If he was that relaxed about nursing homes we have serious cause for concern.

Rob A. Bank

1641 wrote: »

There was an Italian doctor on the other night who indicated that people (I am not sure if he meant just elderly people) who need ventilation usually require it ongoing for about 2 weeks and even then a high proportion die. So the frontline doctors are faced with the choice of who is more likely to survive if given scarce ventilation.

The Pope points the finger at who is responsible for the shortages and scarcities.

TAX DODGERS

I was very impressed by the article Fabio Fazio wrote for Repubblica on what he is learning in these days”.

What, in particular?

“Various passages, but in general the fact that our behaviour always affects the lives of others. He is right, for example, when he says: ‘It has become evident that those who do not pay taxes do not only commit a felony but also a crime: if there are not enough hospital beds and artificial respirators, it is also their fault’. I was very impressed by this”.

https://www.repubblica.it/vaticano/2020/03/18/news/coronavirus_pope_francis-251572693/

See also :- https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/tax-avoiders-coronavirus-bailouts

Kermit.de.frog

rossie1977 wrote: »

I just walked into town to go to chemist which is about a mile and nothing seems to have changed. I would have expected Gardai to be patrolling but no.

Quieter than usual for Saturday but don't see big change compared to last day I left house which was Wednesday

There is no enforcement of pretty much anything in Ireland so this can not be a surprise.

It's not only Ireland though

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1243950623374151681

snotboogie

Manach wrote: »

Historically speaking no. There have been cycles of development were China as in sync with Europe and other times it lagged behind. However it is the Chinese people's ill luck that in this era to have a friable authoritarian government with a veneer of one of the most ill-starred ideologies communism. To believe that mainline China has this virus under control or is acting honestly within this current crisis is not creditable.

Historically speaking yes though :S China has been ahead of Europe for most of the history of civilization. There have been ups and downs but for the most part China was more advanced. The one instance where Europe and East Asia clashed in this time period, the East Asian power obliterated the Europeans. Colonisation and the industrial revolution tipped the balance of power to the West but previous to this the East and its primary power China were the more advanced civilization.

The CCP (an unelected ruling party, I don't like calling them "China" as they do not legitimately represent the people) made a number of huge errors. They didn't learn from the Sars warning and failed to clamp down on wet markets and the sale of bush meat in major cities. Once the outbreak started the initial focus was on containing information rather than the spread of the disease, another huge error. The world will pay for these two grave mistakes. However, just because the CCP messed up at the start, does not invalidate that their subsequent response to the disease has been extremely successful. I don't believe the overall numbers but I believe the trend, the CCP have, at least temporarily, got covid-19 under control. Just because they are an unelected, authoritarian ruling party who failed to mitigate risk and messed up the initial response doesn't mean that they cannot or did not subsequently take accurate and successful measures.

cameramonkey

Manach wrote: »

To believe that mainline China has this virus under control or is acting honestly within this current crisis is not creditable.

Can you give us some examples from credible sources that this is the case. In what part of China do you think the virus is out of control?

WhiteMemento9

rossie1977 wrote: »

I just walked into town to go to chemist which is about a mile and nothing seems to have changed. I would have expected Gardai to be patrolling but no.

Quieter than usual for Saturday evening but don't see big change compared to last day I left house which was Wednesday

I don't understand, what do you mean nothing has changed? Nothing really should have changed that much apart from obviously no people gathering together.

splinter65

jarvis wrote: »

Why were the mother, grandmother, 2 kids and dogs considered to be rule breaking?

If they’re the one household then they’re allowed, no? I have two kids and my wife and I will probably go for a walk with them which is fine as far as I know.

Because we are a small town i can confirm that the granny with the two dogs DOESNT live with the mother with the 2 children. I’ve had to leave my 85 year old mother alone now for the 8th day and I really should have left her alone earlier. But apparently doing the right thing is a matter of choice, not compulsory.

New Home

New Home wrote: »

Give this person a strawman!

Someone states (twice)that not giving an old person a ventilator is genocide, I call it out, and you attack me?

A friend of mine in Milan got out of hospital today. He's had CV19 symptoms since 2/3 and had to call the emergency services over 2 weeks ago to go to hospital to be put on oxygen. He was social distancing before the Italian government had mandated it.

Macdarack

New Home wrote: »

So no point in treating anyone over 65 for anything, then, because they'd very likely die anyway? Let's make that over 60, should save us some more trouble.

How are you a Moderator?

tobefrank321

@coyote, great work as always.

Kerry25x

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In many ways, triage is natural selection. The virus is killing mostly sick or elderly people. Doctors must decide who has a better chance of survival when there are limited resources. Awful, but that's just how it is. It is not genocide.

Am I right in thinking that you guys are talking about 2 different things?

New Home is talking about elderly people having their ventilators removed in favour of younger patients in Italy/Spain whereas Professor is talking about triaging patients for ICU beds in Ireland?

No wonder ye can't agree.

This is it

New Home wrote: »

My point exactly.


Anyway, this Spanish doctor called it a genocide, too, and he's faced with it every single day.

(The video someone else posted the other day was removed from YouTube)

Is the video verified as real?

Where is this happening? I understand the video relates to Madrid but is it happening elsewhere?

Serious questions, not agreeing or disagreeing one way or another.

WhiteMemento9

Macdarack wrote: »

How are you a Moderator?

Kermit.de.frog

cameramonkey wrote: »

Can you give us some examples from credible sources that this is the case. In what part of China do you think the virus is out of control?

China makes bloody well sure there is no credible sources. Hence they have banned western journalist from internal travel in the country whilst some have been expelled from the country entirely in recent months after writing critical articles of the situation.

They don't tolerate dissent or a free media.