CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

igCorcaigh

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

When did we know that? Didn't hear anyone talking about it until January.

Last ten years, there was a lot of talk about pandemic preparedness. Especially since the H5N1 scare.

Ultimanemo

nimrod86 wrote: »

Anything being made in this country is at best probably 3-6 months away from being used in a final product though, and that's assuming it leaves the factory today. Manufacturing itself takes weeks. I can't understand why a few weeks shutdown to protect staff isn't being done, and we can all pick up where we left off later, but suppose it's not my profit margins on the line...

That is under normal circumstances, Also nobody knows how long the situation will last.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/coronavirus-medtronic-aiming-to-make-500-ventilators-a-week-1.4212085

rossie1977

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I don't understand, what do you mean nothing has changed? Nothing really should have changed that much apart from obviously no people gathering together.

The same places that were open Wednesday were open today. Chemist I needed to go doesn't allow you inside they take order just inside door but there was 4-5 women in small space coming in after me so obviously social distancing wasn't being probably adhered to.

I walked more than 2 miles, not one person stopped or questioned me.

Just Saying

expectationlost wrote: »

but you have to reckon most of the deaths occurred in ICU beds so its a lot more new people needing ICU

It's hard to know what constitutes the ICU figure...the belief on this thread is that is is the numbers requiring ICU from the start rather than the number currently in ICU..

ifElseThen

cameramonkey wrote: »

Can you give us some examples from credible sources that this is the case. In what part of China do you think the virus is out of control?

5000 urns delivered over 2 days to 1 mortuary out of 7 in Wuhan.
Wuhan reported 2500 deaths.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

Professor Moriarty

Kerry25x wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that you guys are talking about 2 different things?

New Home is talking about elderly people having their ventilators removed in favour of younger patients in Italy and Professor is talking about triaging patients for ICU beds in Ireland?

No. I'm saying that what is happening in hospitals that are overwhelmed is triage (as a general principle). It is not genocide (as a general principle and by definition). New Home says it is genocide. It is not.

This is it

Macdarack wrote: »

How are you a Moderator?

No need for that.

ACitizenErased

Just Saying wrote: »

It's hard to know what constitutes the ICU figure...the belief on this thread is that is is the numbers requiring ICU from the start rather than the number currently in ICU..

It has been confirmed by Richard Chambers that this is true.

I suppose they're trying to prevent a panic on the nursing homes as well by obfuscating figures. If families think their loved ones are in more danger inside a nursing home they might start taking them home.

paleoperson

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In many ways, triage is natural selection. The virus is killing mostly sick or elderly people. Doctors must decide who has a better chance of survival when there are limited resources. Awful, but that's just how it is. It is not genocide.

That's artificial selection, not natural selection. It would be natural selection if they all gave them the same chance and the weakest died.

paul71

paleoperson wrote: »

That's artificial selection, not natural selection. It would be natural selection if they all gave them the same chance and the weakest died.

The resources don't exist to do that.

Professor Moriarty

paleoperson wrote: »

That's artificial selection, not natural selection.

It's mostly natural selection with some human selection. The virus kills old and weak people - that's a form of natural selection. The human element is that lucky doctors get to choose some deaths and some lives.

MonkstownHoop

rossie1977 wrote: »

I walked more than 2 miles, not one person stopped or questioned me.

The update about what is and isn't essential travel says that it will be relaxed until 6pm Monday to allow people get affairs in order, that said my cousin was stopped in Dublin city today and there were cars pulled over on the n11 near cabinteely this morning.

sameoldname

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no enforcement of pretty much anything in Ireland so this can not be a surprise.

It's not only Ireland though

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1243950623374151681

To be fair, most people in that video are maintaining a decent distance from one another ...with the notable exception of the person actually filming

WhiteMemento9

rossie1977 wrote: »

The same places that were open Wednesday were open today. Chemist I needed to go doesn't allow you inside they take order just inside door but there was 4-5 women in small space coming in after me so obviously social distancing wasn't being probably adhered to.

I walked more than 2 miles, not one person stopped or questioned me.

Are these places that are open outside of the guidelines? I wouldn't have expected much to have changed if I was out and about today other than people taking more care with regards grouping together.

I think it is going to be rare that people are stopped unless your in a high population dense area. We don't have the police force to have this kind of presence on the streets. We are relying on people showing social obedience to a large degree with the new guidelines. I am sure it will be self policing to some degree in that if areas become a problem other people will report them.

cameramonkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

China makes bloody well sure there is no credible sources. Hence they have banned western journalist from internal travel in the country whilst some have been expelled from the country entirely in recent months after writing critical articles of the situation.

They don't tolerate dissent or a free media.

I suppose that is a no then.



Why would China be relaxing the lock downs if the virus was not controlled? Why would China be exporting vital medical equipment if the virus was not controlled?
Why would China be letting doctors and nurses travel to other countries to help if the virus was not controlled?
Why would WHO be saying that China's figures are correct if the virus was not controlled?
Why would drug companies be short of patients to test new methods on because of lack of cases if the virus was not controlled?

Why are the hospitals that were build not being used if the virus was not controlled?

Why would China be letting Ireland buy 60 aircraft loads of PPE and other equipment if the virus was not controlled.


Can you give even one example with a credible link to say that the virus is not contained and not controlled?

Tea drinker

Wife got called today for contact tracing. Work colleague she had shared a taxi with and had meetings with got some symptoms a day later.
was tested after a few days and got the positive test result today 2 weeks later. We weren't advised to self isolate as it's beyond 2 weeks asymptomatic.

dpat1l

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

New Home

This is it wrote: »

Is the video verified as real?

Where is this happening? I understand the video relates to Madrid but is it happening elsewhere?

Serious questions, not agreeing or disagreeing one way or another.

All over Spain, all over Italy, all over the US, for instance. There are innumerable videos and letters and tweets and reports of doctors from all over the place reporting the same thing. As a for instance, one Italian doctor who was treating patients without wearing gloves because they had run out died of Covid earlier this month.

IrishStuff09

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Putting together a page with some online services that have been made free during this whole thing. Might interest some here


https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/giveback/

Further to this, if anyone knows of any other free services and wants to contribute the info - I've made that a bit easier.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/giveback/submit/

pjohnson

Cumulative ICU is bizarre. Presumably you could subtract a fair number of the deceased from that figure to get the current. Then theres recoveries aswell to remove from that cumulative figure. By purposefully over-reporting it it gives a much bleaker impression of the situation here and suggests we are much closer to filling ICU completely than we actually are.

How can they tell us to focus on an ICU figure that is false? Hope to god we dont but we could easily end up with an ICU figure that far exceeds our ICU capacity when in reality we arent over capacity reporting this way. I dont see the purpose of it....

paul71

dpat1l wrote: »

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

30 days for for this virus to run its course I think.

Scuid Mhór

dpat1l wrote: »

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

It takes like four to five weeks to recover completely, and even when you're recovered, they need to test you two or three times to make sure you've recovered from it, so this results in a statistical lag versus the speed of infection/fatality rates. It also means our "fatality" rate is a misnomer - or the ones being used more generally - because no one is comparing them against the "recovered cases" as they are in the future tense.

lawred2

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Further to this, if anyone knows of any other free services and wants to contribute the info - I've made that a bit easier.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/giveback/submit/

Good stuff

wakka12

Does ireland really only still have 5 recovered people? That is dozens or even hundreds of people that have had the virus for like a month now , if that figure is true

Just Saying

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It has been confirmed by Richard Chambers that this is true.

Must have missed that while I was on another thread!!!

igCorcaigh

Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

JP Liz V1

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

XsApollo

Well the criteria would increase the numbers.

Nonoperational

New Home wrote: »

The difference is that now Over 65s aren't being treated. There's a damn big difference between someone who's 65 and someone who's 85 or 95.

We have a lot of capacity yet before that happens here. Fingers crossed.

Tea Shock

The first hospitalised case in Italy was only discharged during the week

There was a video going around of the medical staff applauding as he left

standardg60

Deleted User wrote: »

So will an economic catastrophe, with all the addiction, despair, depression, anxiety, suicides, public health deterioration, huge health inequalities and catastrophically underfunded HSE (even more than now) that would go along with that catastrophe. The only question is would that cause more deaths than the Coronavirus. Probably, if the lockdown goes on for more than a month or so

This is the essance of the debate, it's just a matter of deciding which side you're on.

otnomart

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Germany are doing community testing like we are.

Spain Italy Belgium Netherlands and the UK are only testing people in the hospitals. Their numbers in terms of cases are a lot more accurate than many other countries.

Italy has conducted just shy of 430 000 tests in total.
Today 35 400 tests which identified the nearly 6 000 new positive cases.
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6



I have checked the Robert Koch institute website, and can not find the total number of tests there, so can not compare with Germany.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

The One Doctor

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

No offence, but you're pulling these figures out of your arse just to scare people who don't understand stats or probability.

These numbers look impressive but they're built on faulty assumptions. Most of your log curves are based on the assumption that there's no lockdown.

You have no idea what's going to happen, you're just plugging numbers into Excel based in a few basic formulae.

Leave the guessing to the experts and stop spouting magical numbers. Are you related to Eddie Hobbs by any chance?

cameramonkey

ifElseThen wrote: »

5000 urns delivered over 2 days to 1 mortuary out of 7 in Wuhan.
Wuhan reported 2500 deaths.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

So you think people are still catching this virus in Wuhan? We know thousands died in Wuhan, how is this news?



This is from the article


"The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being ferried in."

amadangomor

paul71 wrote: »

30 days for for this virus to run its course I think.

I'm a suspected case. Test cancelled - (No temperature) Have symptoms since 3rd March. Think the infection is gone but I'm left with constant asthma and breathing difficulties.

Hoping it will be gone by 30 days.

WhiteMemento9

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

That isn't expected to be seen for weeks after the measures are introduced. The percentage increase everyday shows we are doing very well still.

Pablo Escobar

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

A lot of people didn’t change much up until today. If the new rules are changing the way you’re going about you’re daily life you likely weren’t doing all you could.

I wouldn’t expect to see a tangible benefit for at least 2 weeks and the numbers will likely escalate severely before then.

Red for Danger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no enforcement of pretty much anything in Ireland so this can not be a surprise.

It's not only Ireland though

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1243950623374151681

Cant stand all these kind of total bull**** videos!!
70 million people live in france they're in lockdown for 11 or 12 days now. That video cherry picks the very worst place at the very worst time and no mention of the 70 million people who've been at home since the lockdown
Everybody has a camera in their pocket so all streets are covered at all times!!!
Its like filming a murder taking place in a country and posting online saying this is what life is like in X

Hobgoblin11

I heard today Germany are doing 500k tests a week , wtf are we like !

paul71

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

You do know that people being diagnosed today caught it a week to 10 days ago don't you?

Tea Shock

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

The purpose of changing the testing criteria was to increase the positive results and not spend as much time finding negative results

Un1corn

cameramonkey wrote: »

Can you give us some examples from credible sources that this is the case. In what part of China do you think the virus is out of control?

The Chinese Communist Party hasn't told the truth since 1949. They lie about everything. A good rule of thumb and how to know they are lying is if they are talking.

https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/

Muahahaha

pjohnson wrote: »

Cumulative ICU is bizarre. Presumably you could subtract a fair number of the deceased from that figure to get the current. Then theres recoveries aswell to remove from that cumulative figure. By purposefully over-reporting it it gives a much bleaker impression of the situation here and suggests we are much closer to filling ICU completely than we actually are.

How can they tell us to focus on an ICU figure that is false? Hope to god we dont but we could easily end up with an ICU figure that far exceeds our ICU capacity when in reality we arent over capacity reporting this way. I dont see the purpose of it....

Yeah cumulative ICU stats are next to useless and if the figure goes over the 500 odd ICU beds actually available it is going to set in panic. Its a false figure, Im not sure who came up with reporting it that way but its not a bright idea.

wakka12

Turkey likely the next spot of a major epidemic , over 1700 new cases today and total of 7500 cases and 108 deaths overall, had it's first case just 2 weeks ago

Doctors room ghost

Is there anyone else getting fcukin hounded with people sending them sh1te about all this on what’s ap.people at home with fcuk all to do except bounce what’s ap messages around the place.
Fcukin phone is going to end up in the bin soon.
The sooner people go back to normal the better

Kermit.de.frog

Red for Danger wrote: »

Cant stand all these kind of total bull**** videos!!
70 million people live in france they're in lockdown for 11 or 12 days now. That video cherry picks the very worst place at the very worst time and no mention of the 70 million people who've been at home since the lockdown
Everybody has a camera in their pocket so all streets are covered at all times!!!
Its like filming a murder taking place in a country and posting online saying this is what life is like in X

That's central Paris.

otnomart

otnomart wrote: »

Italy has conducted just shy of 430 000 tests in total.
Today 35 400 tests which identified the nearly 6 000 new positive cases.
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6



I have checked the Robert Koch institute website, and can not find the total number of tests there, so can not compare with Germany.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

Their new case numbers are falling.....they were reporting 11-12K a day this time last week

I hope they can turn this around now,

your blood would run cold reading some of the stories coming out from there

Macdarack

Macdarack wrote: »

425 covid 19 patients here are health workers, that's frightening.

Part of that is probably because health workers are prioritised for test and rightly so. Due to their interactions with the public they levels of infection in health workers was always going to be higher, but also this suggest that the a more a lot more cases out there undetected.

vladmydad

Looks like a lot of people have committed suicide in Wuhan, God bless them. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChinaInFocusNTD/status/1243927427270807559