CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

cameramonkey

Tea Shock wrote: »

The purpose of changing the testing criteria was to increase the positive results and not spend as much time finding negative results

How many test are being done per day and how many tests have been done to date? I mean done and processed.

Naggdefy

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Is there anyone else getting fcukin hounded with people sending them sh1te about all this on what’s ap.people at home with fcuk all to do except bounce what’s ap messages around the place.
Fcukin phone is going to end up in the bin soon.
The sooner people go back to normal the better

Absolutely. Stupid jokes, memes and BS.

Roger_007

dpat1l wrote: »

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

The only figure you can believe, (I think), is the number of deaths. Everything else is fudged. The number of cases is not the total number of cases. It’s the number of positive test results (maybe). We have no idea what ‘underlying conditions’ are, it could range from someone with mild asthma to someone with terminal cancer.
I think the figures being made public are more to reinforce the message than to inform us with accurate information.

BrianD3

Purple Mountain wrote: »

There's actually a lot of sense in your post.
Look at the trolley overcrowding where many old people had been left to be exposed to infection and a lack of dignity. (I'm not blaming our health care workers BTW for the overcrowding).
There was no rush to cocoon then.

Exactly. Just to expand on this, the HSE has been in existence since 2005, the economy was booming in 2005, then there was a massive bust, then a boom of sorts again. One of the constants in that time has been a shambolic health service which has undoubtedly resulted in "poor outcomes" for many people that have used the service. Reasons for this are complex and blame can be directed at HSE managers, successive governments, consultants, GPs, unions and the general public. But whatever the reasons, it is likely that suboptimal care has killed far more people in the 15 years since the formation of the HSE than will be killed by Covid19 in Ireland.

E.g. the shortage of ICU beds that has been going on for years, how many beds were added in the last few weeks vs in the last 15 years. The extra beds will undoubtedly help with Covid19 and this will be milked and spun for all its worth. We should have had those beds long before Covid19 appeared.

Rob A. Bank

Un1corn wrote: »

The Chinese Communist Party hasn't told the truth since 1949. They lie about everything.
A good rule of thumb and how to know they are lying is if they are talking.

A bit like Trump then !

cameramonkey

Un1corn wrote: »

The Chinese Communist Party hasn't told the truth since 1949. They lie about everything. A good rule of thumb and how to know they are lying is if they are talking.

https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/

We all know the CCP lie. The rest of your post is unfortunately hyperbole.



Now back to the question can you give an credible evidence that the virus is out of control in China?

bekker

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's mostly natural selection with some human selection. The virus kills old and weak people - that's a form of natural selection. The human element is that lucky doctors get to choose some deaths and some lives.

Strictly speaking it's not natural selection which as a process operates on the breeding age cohort.

After-thought there is nothing natural about any form of medical intervention.

Whatever it is it isn't genocide, which is means a deliberate policy designed to eliminate in whole or in part, a people, or nation.

YFlyer

Just at Aldi, Dublin road Limerick. Nice and quiet.

awec

The cumulative ICU figure is useful if you need to determine the percentage of hospitalisations that will need to go to ICU.

But if you are trying to determine the current status of the health system it’s no good.

There have been what, 36 deaths? If you imagine 50% of those happened in ICU (a low estimate IMO) then that must reduce our ICU figure by something like 20%?

That is assuming that nobody in ICU has recovered enough to leave ICU.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

Their new case numbers are falling.....they were reporting 11-12K a day this time last week

Italy? They never recorded anywhere near that many new cases.

The highest daily advance was 6,557 on March 21st...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Red for Danger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's central Paris.

Exactly
What does that tiny video (which isn't even that bad)tell us about a country of 70 million people with millions of markets, walkways, parks, supermarkets, Shopping arcades
Over a period of 12 days

igCorcaigh

Two weeks ago.
Only two weeks ago

https://twitter.com/MrTimDunn/status/1243969357945987073?s=19

cameramonkey

Roger_007 wrote: »

The only figure you can believe, (I think), is the number of deaths. Everything else is fudged. The number of cases is not the total number of cases. It’s the number of positive test results (maybe). We have no idea what ‘underlying conditions’ are, it could range from someone with mild asthma to someone with terminal cancer.
I think the figures being made public are more to reinforce the message than to inform us with accurate information.

Agreed that is the only number that seem close to real all else is speculation.

paul71

amadangomor wrote: »

I'm a suspected case. Test cancelled - (No temperature) Have symptoms since 3rd March. Think the infection is gone but I'm left with constant asthma and breathing difficulties.

Hoping it will be gone by 30 days.

Here's wishing you a full recovery.....

johnfás

dpat1l wrote: »

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

Because it is probably a waste of resources for the HSE (already stretched) to call everyone who has tested positive to check that they have recovered... particularly given that 90%+ of cases are mild and people just self isolate? The working assumption is presumably that if you test positive and aren’t in hospital 2 weeks later you have recovered.

The Hound Gone Wild

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The Pope points the finger at who is responsible for the shortages and scarcities.

TAX DODGERS



See also :- https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/tax-avoiders-coronavirus-bailouts

Can't wait for the churchs tax return so. Revenue will be delighted. Wonder how far they'll backdate it?

Sober Crappy Chemis

Reminder that's it's Saturday night people. Have a beer. Switch the brain off for a while. Take care folks.

standardg60

amadangomor wrote: »

I'm a suspected case. Test cancelled - (No temperature) Have symptoms since 3rd March. Think the infection is gone but I'm left with constant asthma and breathing difficulties.

Hoping it will be gone by 30 days.

Please take this constructively.

You are only a suspected case in your own head, you have not developed any other symptoms. Anxiety is a known cause of breathing difficulties.
Let the experts decide who should be tested.

Coyote

The One Doctor wrote: »

No offence, but you're pulling these figures out of your arse just to scare people who don't understand stats or probability.

These numbers look impressive but they're built on faulty assumptions. Most of your log curves are based on the assumption that there's no lockdown.

You have no idea what's going to happen, you're just plugging numbers into Excel based in a few basic formulae.

Leave the guessing to the experts and stop spouting magical numbers. Are you related to Eddie Hobbs by any chance?

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

ShooterSF

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Is there anyone else getting fcukin hounded with people sending them sh1te about all this on what’s ap.people at home with fcuk all to do except bounce what’s ap messages around the place.
Fcukin phone is going to end up in the bin soon.
The sooner people go back to normal the better

Why take it out on the phone? Get better friends only messages I've gotten are general chat and a few people checking in cause I've gone quiet. In a morbid way I'm enjoying the break from humanity after bartending for half my life!

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Part of that is probably because health workers are prioritised for test and rightly so. Due to their interactions with the public they levels of infection in health workers was always going to be higher, but also this suggest that the a more a lot more cases out there undetected.

Over 6400 HCPs in Italy have tested positive. 51 doctors have died in the past month.
The long term effects of Corona aren't well known, but lung fibrosis is a possiblilty.

nelly17

vladmydad wrote: »

Looks like a lot of people have committed suicide in Wuhan, God bless them. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChinaInFocusNTD/status/1243927427270807559

Boy thats grim

NuttKicker

FVP3 wrote: »

It is totally made up bollocks which reverberates around this thread like an echo chamber.

When I asked for a link, the link debunked the claim.

As for why Germany is experiencing lower death rates there are many explanations: because it hasn't been overwhelmed yet, because it spread amongst younger people. And so on.

Deaths are increasing there, however.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200318/germany-ramps-up-intensive-care-and-hospital-capacity-in-coronavirus-fight

I read last week Germany had 25k ICU beds and France had 5K, not sure how accurate the figures were as other sorces had them closer by ICU beds per 100k of population. A quick google found story above.
I've seen loads on here arguing over why German death rates are low and even sky news keep repoting that german death rates are artifically low because of testing ect.

They seem to have been the best equipped to deal with this in all of europe, I would also imagine that had the ability to increase this as needed. Nubmer of ICU beds with enough staff and equipment will make the greatest difference here.

I also seen Germany were taking in patients by helicopter grom italy and other surrounding regions, because they have spare capacity in their ICU wards
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-italy/germany-treats-first-italians-as-coronavirus-care-crosses-borders-idUSKBN21B2GL

RobertKK

I have done online grocery shopping since 2012, I have never seen it so busy, for obvious reasons, but it seems the longterm customers of this service are being sacrificed with the wave of new people who signed up.
It is the longterm customers who made it a success and then we have a minister saying those of us who have used this service and made it a success if under 65 should go to the supermarket now. I know this sounds selfish but this service is there because of people who supported it in the quieter times and for many years, and I don't think we should be sacrificed for people under 65 who never used the service before.
It is like a rat race for time slots for deliveries now.

Kermit.de.frog

Red for Danger wrote: »

Exactly
What does that tiny video (which isn't even that bad)tell us about a country of 70 million people with millions of markets, walkways, parks, supermarkets, Shopping arcades
Over a period of 12 days

It's not telling us anything about 70 million people.

It's a snapshot of the center of the capital city in a country that recorded 319 new deaths today in hospitals (outside not recorded).

That's all it is.

If it was some random village elsewhere your point might have validity.

Muahahaha

awec wrote: »

The cumulative ICU figure is useful if you need to determine the percentage of hospitalisations that will need to go to ICU.

But if you are trying to determine the current status of the health system it’s no good.

There have been what, 36 deaths? If you imagine 50% of those happened in ICU (a low estimate IMO) then that must reduce our ICU figure by something like 20%?

That is assuming that nobody in ICU has recovered enough to leave ICU.

The problem is everything after the ICU figure is just guess work full of assumptions. I dont get why they are not reporting it as ICU entrants minus recoveries + deaths. Thats really the figure that people want to know.

igCorcaigh

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

Reminder that's it's Saturday night people. Have a beer. Switch the brain off for a while. Take care folks.

Would it be unethical of me to go to Tesco for beer? I have plenty of food. Might pick up some more to make it seem fairer. Herbs or something.

pH

Did some graphs using today's data ...


Where we are:


Where we're going ...


When might we get there ...


(Treat this one with a grain of salt, it looks very optimistic)

wadacrack

https://mobile.twitter.com/dbongino/status/1243891111921209344

Sober Crappy Chemis

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Would it be unethical of me to go to Tesco for beer? I have plenty of food. Might pick up some more to make it seem fairer. Herbs or something.

I'm grand. I panic bought 12,000 cans when Leo made the announcement on Patrick's day.

amadangomor

standardg60 wrote: »

Please take this constructively.

You are only a suspected case in your own head, you have not developed any other symptoms. Anxiety is a known cause of breathing difficulties.
Let the experts decide who should be tested.

I have been diagnosed with asthma by a doctor caused by an infection of the chest. I'm in early 40s and never had asthma before. Had other symptoms in the beginning.

I don't know if the infection was caused by Covid-19 but the doctor said it was viral and highly unusual and is why he put me forward for the test.

I don't suffer from anxiety whatsoever.

joe_99

New Home wrote: »

It is genocide.

Stop the nonsense. The govt and staff in hospitals are doing their best for everyone in this country. Hence the huge restrictions we are all living under.

Genocide is understood by most to be the gravest crime against humanity it is possible to commit.

It is the mass extermination of a whole group of people, an attempt to wipe them out of existence.

boardise

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

I doubt that 'natural selection' applies here.
As far as I know that has to do with reproduction and transmission of genes which may enable the new organisms to have a better chance of surviving to hand on the 'good' genes and so on and so on. It operates over long time spans.
People who beat the average life expectancy have been successful anyway.
But why should there be a term for 'what's happening in ICUs' etc.-it's just people's bodies and constitutions weakening from age and multiple infirmities and then expiring ...as has happened since the dawn of time.

Roger_007

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Would it be unethical of me to go to Tesco for beer? I have plenty of food. Might pick up some more to make it seem fairer. Herbs or something.

Go for it.

ThePopehimself

A stay on Health Insurance payments would be welcome for the next couple of months.

Health Insurance is currently worthless, I'm wondering why I'm paying it.

Poorside

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Would it be unethical of me to go to Tesco for beer? I have plenty of food. Might pick up some more to make it seem fairer. Herbs or something.

Crisps.

Kermit.de.frog

pH wrote: »

Did some graphs using today's data ...


Where we are:


Where we're going ...


When might we get there ...


(Treat this one with a grain of salt, it looks very optimistic)

Problem with trying to do this for Ireland is we are still working off relatively small samples per day at just a couple of hundred. You could have a day where suddenly there is 800 cases...

Tony Hoolohan said this himself - the samples are not yet big enough.

Cody montana

YFlyer wrote: »

Just at Aldi, Dublin road Limerick. Nice and quiet.

Same in cork.

Roger_007

ThePopehimself wrote: »

A stay on Health Insurance payments would be welcome for the next couple of months.

Health Insurance is currently worthless, I'm wondering why I'm paying it.

It might be worthless for a long time.

paul71

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

I'm grand. I panic bought 12,000 cans when Leo made the announcement on Patrick's day.

I bought 12, some of them will date expire before I get to them.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

voluntary

wadacrack wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/dbongino/status/1243891111921209344

I'm skeptical at this stage. I've seen several optimistic messages about potential effective drugs just to see them fading away.

otnomart

Deleted User wrote: »

Their new case numbers are falling.....they were reporting 11-12K a day this time last week

I hope they can turn this around now,

your blood would run cold reading some of the stories coming out from there

Italy has never had 11-12K cases a day.
See chart here
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_1

declanflynn

Coyote wrote: »

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

keep doing the charts, ignore that d...head

This is it

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

They're likely on ventilators...

wakka12

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

I dont think its a mad notion I believe the deaths of several healthy young doctors have thought to be because of their exposure to such a high viral load multiple times

Rob A. Bank

Just listened to the news...

Who the hell came up with the advertising exec double speak "cocooning" ?

Have the powers that be considered the effects of this 'house arrest without trial' on the over 70s.

They have a one in five chance of dying due to coronavirus.

What chance have they without fresh air and exercise... DVT risk, pulmonary embolism, depression etc. ?

Less than one in five ?

It has been established that they will be triaged and not get a critical care bed or a ventilator if they present to hospital, no matter how ill they are.

What is the point in enforcing this charade ?

Beasty

Coyote wrote: »

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

You do realise your charts miss out one vital piece of information. It's information I'm not seeing anywhere, but without it we really cannot draw much in the way of conclusions

That piece of information is the number of tests undertaken. If today's increase is based on 4,500 tests it is actually very good news. If it's based on 2,000 to 2,500 tests it's bad news. They were upping the number of tests but it takes a few days for results to come through.

The graphs actually suggest similar numbers of tests throughout, which is quire worrying. If we see double the tests we may well start to see something in the order of 600 new confirmed cases each day

Has anyone seen the number of tests today's figures were based on?

Red for Danger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not telling us anything about 70 million people.

It's a snapshot of the center of the capital city in a country that recorded 319 new deaths today in hospitals (outside not recorded).

That's all it is.

If it was some random village elsewhere your point might have validity.

You're video the one you posted shows **** all high up or low down about whats happening in a country. It has zero info. It is a totally pointless video. It shouldn't shape anyone's opinion one way or another

Yet you posted it to make a point.

I'll say it again, everyone has a phone so if some rando, as happens, catches a video of a plane crash it doesn't make flying any more or less scary. It doesn't tell us anything

no.8

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

I heard today Germany are doing 500k tests a week , wtf are we like !

Impressive but Germany has a population of 80 million....so best to work it out per capita