CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

Lets hope this is the case, if a 100,000 or so are infected so far and hospitals are not at breaking point, this has to be great news.

But going by the 80/14/6 percentage breakdown thats been used to divide mild/severe/critical cases up to now here, wouldn’t we have 14,000 severe cases and 6000 critical cases by now, ie, our health system would be utterly swamped?

joeysoap

Can you get home heating oil delivered ?

bekker

Un1corn wrote: »

For what it's worth I think Ireland is handling this well. But the origins of this virus are very relevant.

La pangolin a la guillotine!

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dubai on the verge of requesting a financial bailout from Abu Dhabi.


Whether they get it or not is open to question...

Where you reading this? Doesn't surprise me anyway

JP Liz V1

Beasty wrote: »

If we manage to get 150,000 test results by the end of the month I suspect we would then be at 15,000 confirmed cases. Alas I suspect we will only have a third or less of that number of test results. We were never going to hit 15,000 while we were only ever testing 2,000 now increasing to 4,500 a day. The one (and possibly only) way to keep down confirmed figures is to keep down the numbers tested

Based on what's happening elsewhere we could well have 10s of thousands, perhaps add another 0 to that, of actual infections (bearing in mind up to 80% may not show symptoms but can still spread it which is why social distancing is critical to slow the spread)

Also seeing on the other thread about testing, that some test swab samples going missing so no results is worrying

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Ocionnaith/status/1243552137981890563

Jesus Christ, there aren't even words to cover this. That poor poor man. Those YouTube videos are equal measure heartbreaking and lovely.

I not the least bit ashamed to say his entire story made me shed more than one tear

The account is truly heartbreaking. No matter how small it seems, I will have to write a letter to the man if it's what he needs to get through this.
https://twitter.com/conorsclips/status/1243889791504187392

Tea drinker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS you aren't seriously comparing Dyson with Musk companies??

One makes vacuam cleaners. The other is trying to put a man on Mars and built the biggest Rocket since Saturn 5 while also delivering over a million electric cars.

I don't get the out of proportion reaction? The other poster mentioned a lot of "hot air" being made around both producing Ventilators, with zero product thus far. We in Ireland can't put a man even in the stratosphere yet make 50% of the worlds ventilators.

Quantum Erasure

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1243691094304608256?s=20

The Spanish numbers are cumulative there

Deeper Blue

joeysoap wrote: »

Can you get home heating oil delivered ?

Yes

ThePopehimself

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

What's the actual law preventing employers from still running their businesses?
Or say if these runners that want to run past 2km - what penalty will they get for breaking the rule?
The police can't fine you if there is no law against what you're doing.
So far what Leo said is just advice.

You could open your business tomorrow, walk or run past 2 k tomorrow, you could hang out in a group of twelve tomorrow or throw a party tomorrow...

But should you? I guess it's not an actual law, more a moral one and those laws are "written on the tablets of eternity.”

It's a do the right thing - thing.

lillycakes2

This is a very interesting forum, but can people stop being rude to eachother

BanditLuke

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

their plan for world domination is almost complete

They'll never take (or want) Roscommon.

Westernyelp

joeysoap wrote: »

Can you get home heating oil delivered ?

Yes

MipMap

lillycakes2 wrote: »

This is a very interesting forum, but can people stop being rude to each other

Big ask. People are afraid! and this is how it manifests itself.

tobefrank321

Tea drinker wrote: »

I don't get the out of proportion reaction? The other poster mentioned a lot of "hot air" being made around both producing Ventilators, with zero product thus far. We in Ireland can't put a man even in the stratosphere yet make 50% of the worlds ventilators.

Medtronic make the ventilators, a US company, just like Intel make complex chips.

Agreed on zero product. Probably best if Medtronic ramped up production.

Westernyelp

lillycakes2 wrote: »

This is a very interesting forum, but can people stop being rude to eachother

I doubt it. but it's a nice thought

wakka12

45 new cases in China and 5 deaths, almost the exact same figure for at least two weeks straight now. It sounds so... fake

sheepsh4gger

wakka12 wrote: »

Massively spiked mortality rates in Lombardy compard to typical years shows that coronavirus is causing enormous excess death where it is rampant

Yes, but you first need to have old people.
In Africa people don't have the luxury to live 80+ years

Kermit.de.frog

lillycakes2 wrote: »

This is a very interesting forum, but can people stop being rude to eachother

No

Talisman

bekker wrote: »

La pangolin a la guillotine!

Could be a future Rick Stein show.

sheepsh4gger

ThePopehimself wrote: »

You could open your business tomorrow, walk or run past 2 k tomorrow, you could hang out in a group of twelve tomorrow or throw a party tomorrow...

But should you? I guess it's not an actual law, more a moral one and those laws are "written on the tablets of eternity.”

It's a do the right thing - thing.

If you're an accountant you can go to your work in a hazmat suit.

threeball

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Medtronic make the ventilators, a US company, just like Intel make complex chips.

Agreed on zero product. Probably best if Medtronic ramped up production.

Medtronic can produce about 500 units per week and that's double what they were producing before this. That won't even keep us stocked, never mind the 250000 ventilators needed worldwide.

humberklog

How is the retesting done?
As in- if I get a test and prove positive but am happy enough to go home and isolate. I assume there's a test again in about 2 weeks and if that's negative I'll need a second one in a few days to confirm that I'm negative. (You need a double negative to be officially cleared).
Is there any anecdotal evidence into how this part of the important process is going?

ThePopehimself

joeysoap wrote: »

Can you get home heating oil delivered ?

Yes you can.

Pick an oil delivery company like - lets say - Corrib oil and phone them.

They will see you straight. They will deliver to you.

Tomrota

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Is anyone feeling the positives of the virus. I remember during the beast from the east everything shut down and I walked to the local shop and everyone was taking things slow and I spent days at home with the kids etc and I. I though how nice it would be if the snow stayed around a bit longer. I know there's a lot of horrific stuff that goes with this but there is some good. Like everything has stopped. People are at home. Most families aren't rushing their kids out in the morning and picking them up stressed in the evening. They sit with them during the day, teaching them.
A lot of the regular stress of life is gone away. It seems everything we do now has more importance.
Pollution is massively reduced. The rat race has ground to a halt. People aren't looking at the next city break or next holiday. No more shopping for crap we don't need. The positive of something like this is it gives everyone some real time to figure out what's important.

It’s an argument for Universal Basic Income and the 4 day workweek. The way our current society works is disgusting. Nobody has time for anyone or anything.

wakka12

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

Yes, but you first need to have old people.
In Africa people don't have the luxury to live 80+ years

Well it is killing people in developing countries too, Indonesia has an average age of 28 and over 100 people have died there in just two weeks

Bit cynical

Beasty wrote: »

Yes it's speculative, but based on information that is in the public domain. When you overlay the way this has spread in other jurisdictions, I do not consider it to be an unreasonable view. If they gave us the numbers tested and the dates tests were taken when releasing their updates things would be quite a lot clearer in terms of how this is evolving.

There's probably quite a lot of numbers available to planners. It would be interesting to know the number of calls to GPs from those who suspect infection and the proportion thereof referred for testing on a daily basis. Although hard to interpret, these would be a sort of early warning system and would also be an early indicator that the various measures are having an effect. Having said that, it is probably best that we, the public, don't see them.

MipMap

threeball wrote: »

Medtronic can produce about 500 units per week and that's double what they were producing before this. That won't even keep us stocked, never mind the 250000 ventilators needed worldwide.

During the famine food was exported from Ireland.


Why do people think that a US company, based in Ireland, would serve our
needs first?


Do they Think our government would stand up to Trump?

Westernyelp

wakka12 wrote: »

45 new cases in China and 5 deaths, almost the exact same figure for at least two weeks straight now. It sounds so... fake

if it was fake do you think they would make it sound so fake?

People are driving themselves crazy watching numbers, graphs and tables.

Look after yourself and your own home and follow guidelines that's all you can do.

wakka12

Westernyelp wrote: »

if it was fake do you think they would make it sound so fake?

People are driving themselves crazy watching numbers, graphs and tables.

Look after yourself and your own home and follow guidelines that's all you can do.

I get you but youd have to say its weird that its almost exactly 45 cases and 5 deaths every day from a country of 1.3 billion for literally weeks..what are even the chances of that?

sheepsh4gger

Tomrota wrote: »

It’s an argument for Universal Basic Income and the 4 day workweek. The way our current society works is disgusting. Nobody has time for anyone or anything.

Ireland should implement UBI at least for the period of this emergency.

ThePopehimself

humberklog wrote: »

How is the retesting done?
As in- if I get a test and prove positive but am happy enough to go home and isolate. I assume there's a test again in about 2 weeks and if that's negative I'll need a second one in a few days to confirm that I'm negative. (You need a double negative to be officially cleared).
Is there any anecdotal evidence into how this part of the important process is going?

No, there is no second test. If you get a test that proves positive, that is the only test you will get.

There is no second test after a positive.

You won't get a retest to show you are now better. (ie. negative)

MipMap

Westernyelp wrote: »

if it was fake do you think they would make it sound so fake?

People are driving themselves crazy watching numbers, graphs and tables.

Look after yourself and your own home and follow guidelines that's all you can do.

Chinese are lying - what's new? Italians, Spanish are not - focus on what matters

Jinglejangle69

Wait until it starts raining.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

kowloon

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

93% of people who die are elderly. It won't be recorded otherwise.

Plenty of people with health conditions to take up the slack.

jesus_thats_gre

Westernyelp wrote: »

if it was fake do you think they would make it sound so fake?

People are driving themselves crazy watching numbers, graphs and tables.

Look after yourself and your own home and follow guidelines that's all you can do.

The reality is that the entire western world desperately want to catch them out on this lie. The US in particular isn't comfortable with the concept that China responded in a more effective manner.

For all the "theories" about China, why is what happened in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore legitimate?

sheepsh4gger

wakka12 wrote: »

Well it is killing people in developing countries too, Indonesia has an average age of 28 and over 100 people have died there in just two weeks

The average life expectancy is I think what matters most.

humberklog

ThePopehimself wrote: »

No, there is no second test. If you get a test that proves positive, that is the only test you will get.

There is no second test after a positive.

You won't get a retest to show you are now better. (ie. negative)

Is that fact? As in HSE approved info you're giving?

cameramonkey

BanditLuke wrote: »

China have banned a lot of travel to their country. Its funny how their government condemned other countries for doing exactly that to them only a short time ago. But yeah let's not criticise the CCP, great bunch of lads.

D you think they are right to ban travel for other countries?

Coyote

an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.


Edit: this has been updated as PH pointed out i made a mistake in the 3% numbers
not trying to hide it just want to correct it

bekker

Deleted User wrote: »

But going by the 80/14/6 percentage breakdown thats been used to divide mild/severe/critical cases up to now here, wouldn’t we have 14,000 severe cases and 6000 critical cases by now, ie, our health system would be utterly swamped?

AKAIK that's confirmed cases, i.e. tested positive on the basis of (triaged in Ireland) self-reporting.

Generally accepted is 60/1 infected/confirmed, personally believe it's probably far higher.

So 14% of 40k = 5.6k, and 6% of 40k = 2.4k. But it has been wild in this country since late Feb. so who knows.

We need hard data to say with any accuracy and we keep being fed ****e. The only certain figure is of the dead.

threeball

MipMap wrote: »

During the famine food was exported from Ireland.


Why do people think that a US company, based in Ireland, would serve our
needs first?


Do they Think our government would stand up to Trump?

That wasn't my point. But I don't expect us to keep many of the units made. We will keep some. People in Galway are not going to risk getting coronavirus so the product they make bypasses their granny and goes to trump. If that happens I expect they'll down tools and go home.

MipMap

kowloon wrote: »

Plenty of people with health conditions to take up the slack.

By "Taking up the Slack" do you mean "Dying in Agony"

Sam Quentin

Talisman wrote: »

Would love to see something like this for mapping the potential fallout from the Cheltenham Festival.

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

BorneTobyWilde

john4321 wrote: »

Why would they get off the aircraft? Not sure what you are trying to push here?

I'm guessing its someone picking up on the BS from people like this calling the whole thing a false flag.

https://twitter.com/gemmaod1/status/1244026466083450881?s=20

What would these people expect to do in Ireland, roam the empty streets?

wakka12

Sam Quentin wrote: »

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

What do you mean? The graphic was not to show the spread of infection but to show how interconnected our world is and how widely disperesed those people at one beach became after going home, and the impact that could have countrywide and worldwide if even some of them were infected

sheepsh4gger

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

humberklog

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

Any chance you can give a brief description of what you're linking to?

MipMap

humberklog wrote: »

Any chance you can give a brief description of what you're linking to?

No too much to ask

pH

Coyote wrote: »

an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.

Surely the cases number in the 3% column should be smaller than the cases number in the 1% column.

Take Italy for example, if there have been 10,000 deaths and a death occurs in 3% of cases then the number of cases is around 330,000.