CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's not the euro amount though that matters is it.

It's the lack of preparedness and the legacy of certain parties underfunding the HSE.

We are 7th per capita in health expenditure in OECD. $5,200 per person compared to $5,300 in Germany, there is no underfunding.

sternn

Gynoid wrote: »

I think it was Raconteuse yesterday who saud something like calculating from patient 1 in Ireland to now our numbers are worse than Italy ir Spain if you go to 4 week point for them. I saw it as a quoted post and could not find original or link. But since the idea was horrifying I checked it out, and we had 1st case about 4 weeks ago whereas Italy was January 31st. And indeed by 4 weeks later they had LESS numbers than we have now. (!!!!!!)

You cannot compare the trajectories of countries that had their first cases several weeks apart. Late January was just the start of the virus and there were not many carriers so spreading was slower. When Ireland started getting the virus, there were several clusters that established pretty quickly in the country due to air travel from affected regions.

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

We are 7th per capita in health expenditure in OECD. $5,200 per person compared to $5,300 in Germany, there is no underfunding.

So why the recruitment and overtime freeze?
Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

Gynoid

sternn wrote: »

You cannot compare the trajectories of countries that had their first cases several weeks apart. Late January was just the start of the virus and there were not many carriers so spreading was slower. When Ireland started getting the virus, there were several clusters that established pretty quickly in the country due to air travel from affected regions.

Late January was not the start of the virus. Early December, maybe even mid November in China. Comparing trajectories is surely exactly what one can do? Air travel did the same in Italy. I dunno, maybe I am misunderstanding some fundamental epidemiology but your points dont make sense to me.

Level 42

ettravel wrote: »

guards put in force on village main street checking where u going and coming from.

:rolleyes:

where :rolleyes:

celticWario

paul71 wrote: »

We are 7th per capita in health expenditure in OECD. $5,200 per person compared to $5,300 in Germany, there is no underfunding.

how much of that 5,200 goes to resources and wages for front line services?

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

So why the recruitment and overtime freeze?
Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

Bad management, not underfunding.

sternn

Gynoid wrote: »

Late January was not the start of the virus. Early December, maybe even mid November in China. Comparing trajectories is surely exactly what one can do? Air travel did the same in Italy. I dunno, maybe I am misunderstanding some fundamental epidemiology but your points dont make sense to me.

I meant late January in Italy, not the world. Think about how many cases there were globally when Italy started vs how many cases globally there were when Ireland started. The growth rates will be higher when there is a higher base. We probably had more imported cases in our first couple of weeks compared with Italy. You also have volume of testing as an unknown factor too.

paul71

celticWario wrote: »

how much of that 5,200 goes to resources and wages for front line services?

Again bad management not underfunding.

sternn

Gynoid wrote: »

Late January was not the start of the virus. Early December, maybe even mid November in China. Comparing trajectories is surely exactly what one can do? Air travel did the same in Italy. I dunno, maybe I am misunderstanding some fundamental epidemiology but your points dont make sense to me.

I meant late January in Italy, not the world. Think about how many cases there were globally when Italy started vs how many cases globally there were when Ireland started. The growth rates will be higher when there is a higher base. We probably had more imported cases in our first couple of weeks compared with Italy. You also have volume of testing as an unknown factor too.

Bob24

BluePlanet wrote: »

So why the recruitment and overtime freeze?
Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

Without knowing the system in details it is hard to say which is the most impactful between this and a possible lack of funding, but I’d say the quality of care is also impacted by a lack of efficiency and money being spent and things which are no -essential or don’t directly relate to providing healthcare to the public (there are developed countries with similar cost of living which seem to be spending less than us and to have a better health service).

JRant

sternn wrote: »

Our government through medical advisors are doing exactly as many other countries are doing: slowly introducing the measures and giving short term dates (I.e. measures in place for 2 weeks and will be reviewed).

This is our new way of life for what I think will be the rest of the year at least. If measures are lifted and life goes back to normal, the virus kicks back up and we are in the same scenario again. I think the test for antigens may allow some people to start going back to normal again, but as we haven't been through a full year if this virus, we don't yet know if it has the ability to mutate like the flu virus.

Yesterday in his briefing, Simon Harris coyly said that measures are not going to be suddenly lifted on Easter Sunday, they are likely to be with us for many weeks and months. There is likely to be restrictions in place until there is a vaccine that has the capability of being produced for the global population and is 100% safe.

Air Travel will be severely affected for the rest of the year at least as governments will want to control the virus in their own country. This virus spread through air travel so quickly, unlike any other virus.

This is such a surreal situation, something we will talk about in many many years to come. I trust the advice we are being given by the scientists / medical teams and know that we will all get used to these restrictions and pull together as a community to support each other. There will be a vaccine and the virus is likely to be with us for many years to come, but spread will be contained through vaccines (similar to the flu).

Harris also said that the current escalated restrictions can only be used for short periods of time. You can't expect people to suddenly change human nature and go into solitary confinement for months on end voluntarily. It just ain't going to happen without a massive military/police operation to heavily enforce it.

At some stage this summer, probably May, at the latest, this country is going to have to get back to some level of normal operation. People need to feed their families, pay their bills etc.

igCorcaigh

snoopboggybog wrote: »

Not uncommon there for dogs to be thrown into boiling water alive and the lid shut or cooked alive with a small flame gun. The agony with both is unthinkable.

Its ****ing disgusting

Is this really true? Unbelievable.
Do they not have laws about animal cruelty?

Gynoid

sternn wrote: »

I meant late January in Italy, not the world. Think about how many cases there were globally when Italy started vs how many cases globally there were when Ireland started. The growth rates will be higher when there is a higher base. We probably had more imported cases in our first couple of weeks compared with Italy. You also have volume of testing as an unknown factor too.

Right.
Maybe you are right. But extending your reasoning means we would continue now to have much higher growth rates than those places because the base is ever higher.
Plus I do not think we had more imported cases in the beginning than Italy. Has the narrative not been that Italy had huge numbers of Chinese workers flying in and out?
Are you an expert or just an opinion haver like me? Just asking so I can know the weight to put on your opinion. It could be as light as the weight I accord to my own, which is basically that of a person who does not know.

CIARAN_BOYLE

BluePlanet wrote: »

So why the recruitment and overtime freeze?
Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

We're spending too much for what we get.

I'm not an expert in medical administration but there's some obvious areas there are problems where we are throwing money away.

There also non obvious areas where we have to be throwing money away.

I'd love to see a plan drawn up to fix the health service but the problems are not financial. There are also more important things to worry about in the short term.

igCorcaigh

JRant wrote: »

Harris also said that the current escalated restrictions can only be used for short periods of time. You can't expect people to suddenly change human nature and go into solitary confinement for months on end voluntarily. It just ain't going to happen without a massive military/police operation to heavily enforce it.

At some stage this summer, probably May, at the latest, this country is going to have to get back to some level of normal operation. People need to feed their families, pay their bills etc.

Cycles of restriction and opening. Going to be with us for quite some time. A year or two is what I'm expecting.

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

Bad management, not underfunding.

Ok and why don't successive governments do something about that management problem?

Coyote

Around testing numbers
if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 639
Switzerland 264
Austria 68
Denmark 65
Ireland 36

cases detected per death
Netherlands 15.2
Switzerland 53.3
Austria 121
Denmark 33.8
Ireland 67

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time
a contrary that we know are not testing is the UK they have 15.7 cases detected per death.
France is other contray that has 2314 deaths but only 16.2 cases found for each death

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths

how we deal with the growth and how we slow it are not the same as detecting the number of cases but we are testing better than most is seems
the number of test done by the 23 was 18K, at 1.5K a day since we should be around 25.5K tests done



Regards

Coyote

amadangomor

paul71 wrote: »

Bad management, not underfunding.

Bad management plays a big part alright but the unions that represent the workers/consultants block reforms.

The whole system needs to be reset. One example would be 7 day operation of expensive equipment. No wonder there are waiting lists when we have such equipment sitting idle apart from Monday to Friday for 8 hours a day.

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ok and why don't successive governments do something about that management problem?

I don't know, why don't you ask a politician. Still does change the fact that the health service is not underfunded.

Away With The Fairies

JRant wrote: »

Harris also said that the current escalated restrictions can only be used for short periods of time. You can't expect people to suddenly change human nature and go into solitary confinement for months on end voluntarily. It just ain't going to happen without a massive military/police operation to heavily enforce it.

At some stage this summer, probably May, at the latest, this country is going to have to get back to some level of normal operation. People need to feed their families, pay their bills etc.

There's no normal anymore. It's a hard thing to balance but we need everyone now to cop the fcuk on. There's still people who's ignoring advice given. People going to other people's houses.

Field east

Coyote wrote: »

A total of 11 million masks, one million face shields and one million goggles for workers are on order.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-coronavirus-tests-5054225-Mar2020/

this brings up an intresting questions what are they going to use 11 million mask for, can't be for the HSE can it?
send them out to every house in Ireland?

Coyote

Any medic wearing a mask is strongly advised to change it after dealing with a certain no of, for example, patients or after a certain no of hours. So , for example, if 10,000 medics change their masks 4 times a day , then in one week- 7 days working for ease of calculation - you would go through 280,000 masks.
My figs might be a bit out but you get the drift

facehugger99

paul71 wrote: »

We are 7th per capita in health expenditure in OECD. $5,200 per person compared to $5,300 in Germany, there is no underfunding.

We also have a very young population, so the amount we are paying into the health service is absolutely criminal compared to the service we get from it as a country.

Ironically, the economic impact of this virus is likely to mean we'll have far less to spend on health in the coming years.

amadangomor

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ok and why don't successive governments do something about that management problem?

The unions block reform, no one has the balls to take on the unions as it would be political suicide.

paul71

amadangomor wrote: »

Bad management plays a big part alright but the unions that represent the workers/consultants block reforms.

The whole system needs to be reset. One example would be 7 day operation of expensive equipment. No wonder there are waiting lists when we have such equipment sitting idle apart from Monday to Friday for 8 hours a day.

Thats getting closer to the truth, than the blind incorrect statements about underfunding. I did income tax returns for about 40 hospital consultants for a few years. I was constantly bemused by the fact that people on enormous state salaries actually had the time to earn multiples of 2 times or more of that salary from private practice while working fulltime for the HSE.

facehugger99

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ok and why don't successive governments do something about that management problem?

Any Government that was serious about systemic reform would have to smash the unions and vested interest that make up the health service and would face waves of industrial action.

The Irish electorate would then promptly fcuk them out of office. Every Irish political party knows this so there is no appetite to solve the problem

If you want to know why our health service is so ****e, start by looking in the mirror.

Gooey Looey

BluePlanet wrote: »

Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

We have a triage problem. GPs and nursing homes are responsible for overcrowding a&e.

Coyote

Field east wrote: »

Any medic wearing a mask is strongly advised to change it after dealing with a certain no of, for example, patients or after a certain no of hours. So , for example, if 10,000 medics change their masks 4 times a day , then in one week- 7 days working for ease of calculation - you would go through 280,000 masks.
My figs might be a bit out but you get the drift

I do get your drift, two points tho that would be masks for 40 weeks at that rate.
the government has other suppliers that have been providing for the HSE for years already so the 11 million are all extra, and i'm sure they have been ordering extra from the normal suppliers for weeks/month

I not saying they are for general use but it does seem a very high number

all about the mane

BluePlanet wrote: »

So why the recruitment and overtime freeze?
Why all the people on trolley's in hallways?

There is no one on trolleys now

lawred2

paul71 wrote: »

I don't know, why don't you ask a politician. Still does change the fact that the health service is not underfunded.

Even more criminal when you think what people are also asked to pay in insurance premiums and direct contributions to GPs, EDs, Consultants etc..

It's a scandal.

all about the mane

amadangomor wrote: »

Bad management plays a big part alright but the unions that represent the workers/consultants block reforms.

The whole system needs to be reset. One example would be 7 day operation of expensive equipment. No wonder there are waiting lists when we have such equipment sitting idle apart from Monday to Friday for 8 hours a day.

This is a huge problem. the unions are killing us.

Field east

paleoperson wrote: »

yep, you wear one out painting and noone bats an eyelid. You enter a packed supermarket wearing one during the most serious and deadly and contagious virus threat in the history of the republic of ireland and suddenly you're getting notions. Though I think in the past week or two people are finally starting to get it - very few wearing masks still though.

Apart from the mask providing a physical barrier to the virus entering or leaving your Mouth/nose it acts as a reminder not to touch your face with your hands - and more importantly it does not allow you to be able to do it anyway.
On that basis therefor and because Gov, etc, are constantly saying about not touching our face , it makes a lot of sense to wear one so that we will not touch our faces

Jimbob1977

1. People presenting at A&E with minor injuries that could be handled by small injury clinics, e.g. St. John's Hospital in Limerick instead of UHL.

2. Alcohol and drug related admissions. Saturday night fights.

3. Wards being used at old folks homes. Bed blocking.

As A&Es have been largely cleared by the corona virus, I have not heard reports of citizens dying by the thousand from regular ailments.

megabomberman

Coyote wrote: »

Around testing numbers
if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 639
Switzerland 264
Austria 68
Denmark 65
Ireland 36

cases detected per death
Netherlands 15.2
Switzerland 53.3
Austria 121
Denmark 33.8
Ireland 67

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time
a contrary that we know are not testing is the UK they have 15.7 cases detected per death.
France is other contray that has 2314 deaths but only 16.2 cases found for each death

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths

how we deal with the growth and how we slow it are not the same as detecting the number of cases but we are testing better than most is seems
the number of test done by the 23 was 18K, at 1.5K a day since we should be around 25.5K tests done



Regards

Coyote

Good post Coyote, I just want to mention that since the majority of our cases have been detected in the past week our cases per death is artificially high, South Korea's slid from 100+ to where it is now as cases slowly resolved to recovery or death. We still have a ways to go, but to be confident that we are detecting most of our cases that 67 should be 100+ ala Germany.

We are obvious doing far better than the UK, France etc.

macnug

One positive from all this is the health service, for the moment has become super efficient. My daughter broker her leg yesterday and shes going into get in realigned this morning. A&E is empty and you are seen very quickly. Maybe we should stop blaming the HSE and have a look at ourselves, the HSE hasnt changed much but our inclination to run to A&E has. I think GP's have a major part to play in this as well.

BluePlanet

all about the mane wrote: »

There is no one on trolleys now

It's almost like the problem just needed a little nudge.
Now why didn't FFFG make that nudge..

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

If we looked at any other country and saw almost 2500 cases and 36 deaths, we’d be wondering what they were doing right.

Things are going very well so far but obviously we need to try bolt in the elders and avoid infecting nursing homes.

Let's answer that. How could that possibly be?

1. don't test everyone who has it
2. test them and then cancel test
3. say people were going to die anyway and nothing to do with virus

CIARAN_BOYLE

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

1. People presenting at A&E with minor injuries that could be handled by small injury clinics, e.g. St. John's Hospital in Limerick instead of UHL.

2. Alcohol and drug related admissions. Saturday night fights.

3. Wards being used at old folks homes. Bed blocking.

As A&Es have been largely cleared by the corona virus, I have not heard reports of citizens dying by the thousand from regular ailments.

It's my understand that A&E still gets a significant number of patients. Just that they are able to call on resources usually used for routine procedures and deal with the patients quicker.

Last year my father had medical issues. He collapsed and there was no known reason. The doctors said he needed full time care until they got him a brain scan. It took 8bdays to get him a scan during which time he spent 5 days on a trolley and 3 on a ward.

If something similar happened today (OK maybe not today but Monday) he would be told that since the routine scans had been cancelled he would scanned immediately.

He would have been in and out within a few hours.

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

I don't know, why don't you ask a politician. Still does change the fact that the health service is not underfunded.

Oh i do ask them.
But never does one get a straight answer, only waffle.
Which is why i'll never vote for one of the 2 parties of the status quo.

shocksy

Blaming the Anericans

https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078

Jimbob1977

I have private health insurance. If I turn up at A&E, I pay a €100 fee which can't be claimed.

A medical card (handed out like snuff at a wake) pays zilch.

Coyote

megabomberman wrote: »

Good post Coyote, I just want to mention that since the majority of our cases have been detected in the past week our cases per death is artificially high, South Korea's slid from 100+ to where it is now as cases slowly resolved to recovery or death. We still have a ways to go, but to be confident that we are detecting most of our cases that 67 should be 100+ ala Germany.

We are obvious doing far better than the UK, France etc.

Hi megabomberman

a very good point, i try to get across in all my posts they are not 100% truth they are estimates, open to being incorrect.
i do feel they help people to try and put context to where we are and where we can go to.
100% agree i would like to see the number of test double and i think they are working towards that.

Coyote

snoopboggybog

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

I have private health insurance. If I turn up at A&E, I pay a €100 fee which can't be claimed.

A medical card (handed out like snuff at a wake) pays zilch.

Are you a narcissist by any chance?

caveat emptor

kilkenny31 wrote: »

12 operating rooms. Most hospitals in Ireland wouldn't have that.

Yeah but the size of that boat. 1000 beds? Italy and now apain have converter gymnasiums. Uk has converted a convention centre.

Name of the game is ICU. look at Germany, No Big fancy boats. Just a **** load of testing and capacity,

Jayzee.

What happens with SK over the long-term?

I get that their slowing the spread with track and trace and distancing but what happens next?

Will they just end up as bad as Italy?

paul71

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

1. People presenting at A&E with minor injuries that could be handled by small injury clinics, e.g. St. John's Hospital in Limerick instead of UHL.

2. Alcohol and drug related admissions. Saturday night fights.

3. Wards being used at old folks homes. Bed blocking.

As A&Es have been largely cleared by the corona virus, I have not heard reports of citizens dying by the thousand from regular ailments.

And there is another part of the problem. Us. We use the health service when we don't need it.

sternn

Gynoid wrote: »

Right.
Maybe you are right. But extending your reasoning means we would continue now to have much higher growth rates than those places because the base is ever higher.
Plus I do not think we had more imported cases in the beginning than Italy. Has the narrative not been that Italy had huge numbers of Chinese workers flying in and out?
Are you an expert or just an opinion haver like me? Just asking so I can know the weight to put on your opinion. It could be as light as the weight I accord to my own, which is basically that of a person who does not know.

I'm in now way an expert I've got an opinion having immersed myself in content around this virus since the beginning. It's all to do with timings -> we had our first case later, we brought in different restrictions at different points of time, the virus was more prevalent in the world when we got our first case. Im just trying to get across the message that there's lots of factors at play than just to be worried that we are worse than Italy.

all about the mane

amadangomor wrote: »

The unions block reform, no one has the balls to take on the unions as it would be political suicide.

This. The health brief needs to be protected from the election cycle. Only way someone is going to go after it.

all about the mane

Field east wrote: »

Apart from the mask providing a physical barrier to the virus entering or leaving your Mouth/nose it acts as a reminder not to touch your face with your hands - and more importantly it does not allow you to be able to do it anyway.
On that basis therefor and because Gov, etc, are constantly saying about not touching our face , it makes a lot of sense to wear one so that we will not touch our faces

I wear a mask for work. You touch your face more, not less, if you are wearing one.

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

Oh i do ask them.
But never does one get a straight answer, only waffle.
Which is why i'll never vote for one of the 2 parties of the status quo.

So your posts are a political agenda not a concern to correct the issues in our health service, drunks clogging A&Es, union intransigence, hospitals consultants earning more from private practice than their fulltime jobs.