CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

caveat emptor

statesaver wrote: »

Sure Simon said we couldn't.

'We can't ban travel': Health Minister rules out screening for Covid-19 at Irish airports

https://www.thejournal.ie/we-cant-ban-travel-health-minister-rules-out-screening-at-irish-airports-as-covid-19-spreads-5022235-Feb2020/

Best boys in the EU class are the Irish

Massive mistake here. Even Conor mcgregor get's it. How many times was he knocked out? Fair fvcks to him.

https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/1244153220202725379?s=20

Gynoid

Jayzee. wrote: »

What happens with SK over the long-term?

I get that their slowing the spread with track and trace and distancing but what happens next?

Will they just end up as bad as Italy?

I heard someone, okay it was the venerable Noam Chomsky, this morning saying that if 100000 are going to die what we need to do is not have them all come at once to the ICU because that collapses the system, but have it spread out over longer time.
A few weeks ago I read about reseaech on social distancing in 1918 in US cities and while the different practices in different cities re distancing had a huge effect on peak deaths, overall the number of deaths in the long run was not AS highly impacted. If I get a chance will try to find link.

all about the mane

BluePlanet wrote: »

Oh i do ask them.
But never does one get a straight answer, only waffle.
Which is why i'll never vote for one of the 2 parties of the status quo.

The answer has been a number of times in the last 3 pages

Gynoid

sternn wrote: »

I'm in now way an expert I've got an opinion having immersed myself in content around this virus since the beginning. It's all to do with timings -> we had our first case later, we brought in different restrictions at different points of time, the virus was more prevalent in the world when we got our first case. Im just trying to get across the message that there's lots of factors at play than just to be worried that we are worse than Italy.

Got it. Thanks
Guess only time will tell the full story.

Jayzee.

Gynoid wrote: »

I heard someone, okay it was the venerable Noam Chomsky, this morning saying that if 100000 are going to die what we need to do is not have them all come at once to the ICU because that collapses the system, but have it spread out over longer time.
A few weeks ago I read about reseaech on social distancing in 1918 in US cities and while the different practices in different cities re distancing had a huge effect on peak deaths, overall the number of deaths in the long run was not AS highly impacted. If I get a chance will try to find link.

I'm beginning to wonder if the UK and US got it right

Stretch the system initially

May work out better over the longer term

all about the mane

Gynoid wrote: »

I heard someone, okay it was the venerable Noam Chomsky, this morning saying that if 100000 are going to die what we need to do is not have them all come at once to the ICU because that collapses the system, but have it spread out over longer time.
A few weeks ago I read about reseaech on social distancing in 1918 in US cities and while the different practices in different cities re distancing had a huge effect on peak deaths, overall the number of deaths in the long run was not AS highly impacted. If I get a chance will try to find link.

the virus will do what it will do. We are just trying to slow it. And trying to protect people with other issues that might not get the treatment they need otherwise.

all about the mane

Jayzee. wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder if the UK and US got it right

Stretch the system initially

May work out better over the longer term

Think Sweden are working with a similar hypothesis

igCorcaigh

Jayzee. wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder if the UK and US got it right

Stretch the system initially

May work out better over the longer term

I cannot see how. You were replying to a post that suggested the complete opposite?

caveat emptor

Woodsie1 wrote: »

While other EU countries were restricting the free movement of people in mainland europe,our bunch of morons deciding it was a good time to bow down and lick the feet of the EU when we are on an island with way easier ways of reducing the spread of the virus.
Fcuking fools.

Anybody coming here on a plane now needs their head examined. Stay fvcking home. The whole are Lingus picking up supplies looks great. Hate to put a dampener but it's effectively state aid. Airlines hurting big time, We got in trouble giving apple state aid so we can't just bail them out. (if they were USURES no probs though). I could be wrong. Sorry if I am.

Getting some cargo company to deliver probably way more efficient.

deisedevil

Does anyone know of a spreadsheet that compares countries at the same point in time? So from first cases detected onwards?

sternn

JRant wrote: »

Harris also said that the current escalated restrictions can only be used for short periods of time. You can't expect people to suddenly change human nature and go into solitary confinement for months on end voluntarily. It just ain't going to happen without a massive military/police operation to heavily enforce it.

At some stage this summer, probably May, at the latest, this country is going to have to get back to some level of normal operation. People need to feed their families, pay their bills etc.

A couple of other people have said it, but our life is different. Restrictions will relaxed then reintroduced. The point is we will always have "restrictions" until a vaccine is scaled globally, but these restrictions will vary as demand on our health system change.

Quantum Erasure

I know this was being discussed 100 pages back about NCT tests still going on, They were suspended a couple hours later, but didn't see an update in thread

COVID–19 Update 28th March 2020 – The Minister of Transport, Tourism and Sport, Shane Ross and the RSA have confirmed that the National Car Testing Service (NCT) is suspended until further notice with immediate effect. This is in order to comply with the new public restrictions to tackle the spread of the Coronavirus.

https://www.ncts.ie


applies to The National Driver Licence Service (NDLS), the National Car Testing Service (NCT) and the Commercial Vehicle Testing System

billyhead

I heard an expert say the other day it's pointless for the general public to wear a mask. It's only useful if you have the virus.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

Here is an interview from South Korea with Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital. The interview is subtitled so you can follow the conversation. A lot of this information given in the interview my already be known to you.

This is a condensed summary of the interview:

Who is most at risk?

• Highest death rate is in the elderly.
• 0.1% for 30 and 40 year olds

Can you get the flu again?

• Usually people who get the flu, the bodies develop antibodies and they recover in 2 weeks and don't get sick again.
• For Covid, some people who have been discharged are getting the virus again.

How do you get infected?

3 ways to get infected:


1. Droplet Transfer: Directly being coughed or sneezed on by someone and being with their droplets.


2. Indirect Transfer: When patient coughs or sneezes and the droplets land on keyboards/tables/doorknobs. Virus can survive up to 3-4 days on surfaces like tables/door knobs, and 1 day for fabric/clothes. Temperature and humidity affect these.


3. Direct Transfer: When someone coughs/sneezes on hands and you shake their hands and subsequently touch your face/mouth/eyes etc...


Can you get it just by breathing?

• Yes, Aerosol Transmission possible in certain cases (i.e. Airborne transmissions)
  
• Airborne transmission likely in densely packed areas. But, in outdoor environments and not in closed spaces, not as likely through airborne transmission.

What are the symptoms of the virus?

• Loss in appetite, mild aches, fevers, sore throat, difficulty breathing.
  
• 30% of those who get the virus can't smell or taste anything

Can you get infected if it's on skin?

• You get infected by virus going through eyes/mouth/nose because there are mucous membranes in those areas.
  
• However, you can't get the virus from it just being on your skin. That's why it's important to wash your hands.

How effective is wearing a face mask?

• Very effective.
• In the west, not many people wear masks which is odd. The US Surgeon General and WHO recommend people not to wear masks, but he disagrees. Wearing mask is extremely effective.
• They probably said that so medical people can have more masks and normal people stop hoarding.
• If everyone wears masks, there will be less infections in general. WHO encourages normal people not to wear masks. But in Asia, because of cultural differences, they encourage people to wear masks.
• As a result, US/Europe spreading much faster than Asia did.

If it gets warmer, will the virus go away?

• Hard to predict, but won't go away quickly.

Several scenarios:

• 1st Scenario: Covid ends like SARS did when it got warmer. SARS started in Nov 2002 and ended July 2003. But, back then people travelled less and infection was much smaller (mostly Asia + Canada only).
  
• For Covid, IF the whole world cooperates, it can end by July/August 2020 and it won't infect people again. However, only 10% probability this may come true.
  
• 2nd scenario: Covid stays in the summer and it'll spread to southern hemisphere when it's their winter and it'll come back again in our winter. Just like regular flu cycle.
  
• 3rd scenario: We develop a vaccine and put a end to it once and for all. But this scenario is difficult to achieve.
  
• Inventing a new vaccine usually takes 10-15 years and costs US$800M. Covid is not even 100 days old. Doctors have only had 2 months to understand their DNA structure so far.
  
• At fastest, IF everything goes smoothly (big if), and it'll take 18 months if all goes well to develop vaccine.
  
• However, even if US / China develops a vaccine, would they share the vaccine? Also, it'll be impossible for US with 320 million population to vaccinate everyone. It becomes a choice of priority. Who gets the cure first?

What cures are being used now?

• Best thing we can do is "drug repurposing":
  
• Try to find a drug that's being used to treat another disease that can also be effective for Covid.
  Ex. A drug that is used for Malaria was found to be somewhat effective in treating Covid and used for critical patients right now.
  
• Another way:
  
• Take the blood of patients who recovered and use the antibodies in the blood to give to critical patients. So recovered people should donate their bloods if they can.

Any last comments?

• Currently, doctors have been working 2 months non-stop and are very worn out. Their bodies are tired as a result so they can catch the virus from patients more easily. They are more vulnerable than normal people.

Last advice to people in teens, 20s, 30s?

• You may be fine, but if you spread to an elderly family member, it could be fatal.
• Wear a mask. Socially distance. You need to protect yourself so you can protect your family.

mouldybiscuits

Un1corn wrote: »

I think we in the west should pay much closer attention to China. We are too complacent with them.

Agreed. They donated a lot of much needed medical equipment to us we should definitely become closer with them as a nation after this situation has ended. From what I've heard all USA has done is tried to move EU medical supply companies to USA in the midst of this pandemic. As a country we need to get our priorities right. Russia and China have shown us they can be useful friends to the EU, we can't continue to be puppets for America in their economic wars. I hope going forward we will get these priorities right.

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

So your posts are a political agenda not a concern to correct the issues in our health service, drunks clogging A&Es, union intransigence, hospitals consultants earning more from private practice than their fulltime jobs.

People want to blame the China government for allowing wet markets to exist and the spread of the virus.

It's fair enough to lay blame on the state of the HSE preparedness at the door of the Irish government.

snoopboggybog

The world will be a lot less resilient on china when this blows over.

caveat emptor

Beasty wrote: »

If we manage to get 150,000 test results by the end of the month I suspect we would then be at 15,000 confirmed cases. Alas I suspect we will only have a third or less of that number of test results. We were never going to hit 15,000 while we were only ever testing 2,000 now increasing to 4,500 a day. The one (and possibly only) way to keep down confirmed figures is to keep down the numbers tested

Based on what's happening elsewhere we could well have 10s of thousands, perhaps add another 0 to that, of actual infections (bearing in mind up to 80% may not show symptoms but can still spread it which is why social distancing is critical to slow the spread)

Every country doing the same. 3 weeks and one day ago...... Seems like a life time,

Originally Posted by thomas 123 View Post
Yes - the hse rep said on the news today that most cases can be treated at home(assuming they least severe I’d imagine) that’s what he said, check it out on rte news now/player.

Are they putting everyone who tests positive into hospital now - yes it would seem.
[/QUOTE]

caveat emptor wrote: »

Could be. I don't know.


This will defo be a supply side problem though.


How many people have it? -> limiting factor how many tests do we have?
How many people are in hospital? -> How many beds do we have?
How many people in ICU? -> How many ICU beds do we have?
How many people will die? -> whatever is left over.

Coyote

deisedevil wrote: »

Does anyone know of a spreadsheet that compares countries at the same point in time? So from first cases detected onwards?

Hi deisedevil

it's not a spreadsheet but i think it covers what you are looking for

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/



Regards

Coyote

amadangomor

Jayzee. wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder if the UK and US got it right

Stretch the system initially

May work out better over the longer term

Can't agree. See how long the peak is lasting in Italy?

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

People want to blame the China government for allowing wet markets to exist and the spread of the virus.

It's fair enough to lay blame on the state of the HSE preparedness at the door of the Irish government.

And the unions, and the general population, and the drunks clogging A&Es, and consultants milking the system. What is not an issue is funding.

This whole crisis has exposed a deep underlying lack of personal responsibility in Ireland.

"I blame the guberment, I refuse to look at myself"

all about the mane

billyhead wrote: »

I heard an expert say the other day it's pointless for the general public to wear a mask. It's only useful if you have the virus.

They are right

snoopboggybog

Is 6% death toll in the UK be right going by RTE News. Can't be!

all about the mane

BluePlanet wrote: »

People want to blame the China government for allowing wet markets to exist and the spread of the virus.

It's fair enough to lay blame on the state of the HSE preparedness at the door of the Irish government.

Some people

caveat emptor

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Is anyone feeling the positives of the virus. I remember during the beast from the east everything shut down and I walked to the local shop and everyone was taking things slow and I spent days at home with the kids etc and I. I though how nice it would be if the snow stayed around a bit longer. I know there's a lot of horrific stuff that goes with this but there is some good. Like everything has stopped. People are at home. Most families aren't rushing their kids out in the morning and picking them up stressed in the evening. They sit with them during the day, teaching them.
A lot of the regular stress of life is gone away. It seems everything we do now has more importance.
Pollution is massively reduced. The rat race has ground to a halt. People aren't looking at the next city break or next holiday. No more shopping for crap we don't need. The positive of something like this is it gives everyone some real time to figure out what's important.

Great way of looking at things.

greenfield21

mouldybiscuits wrote: »

Agreed. They donated a lot of much needed medical equipment to us we should definitely become closer with them as a nation after this situation has ended. From what I've heard all USA has done is tried to move EU medical supply companies to USA in the midst of this pandemic. As a country we need to get our priorities right. Russia and China have shown us they can be useful friends to the EU, we can't continue to be puppets for America in their economic wars. I hope going forward we will get these priorities right.

I can't wait, say goodbye to all those US multinationals that our whole economy is built on. We'll be much better off.

caveat emptor

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Nobody should be paying Health Insurance right now. It's useless. It's money I don't have.

The Health Insurance Companies need to put a stay on payments.

Wow, good point!

Field east

MipMap wrote: »

Lived in Spain for 20 years. People use to bring Brennan's out and we froze it.
Not as good as fresh bread but better than the Spanish stuff.

Milk freezes but when thawed give it a shake - otherwise the first of it can be weary watery

DOCARCH

snoopboggybog wrote: »

Is 6% death toll in the UK be right going by RTE News. Can't be!

On the statistics we have, it is, but the real death rate is probably around 1%. UK just has a lot more unconfirmed cases than confirmed cases.

Harry Palmr

Another scrote (in Cork) got arrested for spitting at a Guard, due to court this morning.

Everyone of these ****ers should be put in stocks and yes spat at!

---

I've not followed this thread religiously as I'm not completely mad so can anyone tell me if the locations of the clusters has been specified?

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

And the unions, and the general population, and the drunks clogging A&Es, and consultants milking the system. What is not an issue is funding.

This whole crisis has exposed a deep underlying lack of personal responsibility in Ireland.

"I blame the guberment, I refuse to look at myself"

I don't go into A&E.
Was there one time in my life about 20 years ago.
So no i don't look at myself.

I agree that unions, drunks, consultants milking the system are a problem.
But that needs to be addressed at a high level (government).
Ireland is very much a top-down country.

caveat emptor

Talisman wrote: »

It gets the message across.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1243999886292463618

https://twitter.com/i/status/1243999886292463618

Love it

Gooey Looey

snoopboggybog wrote: »

Is 6% death toll in the UK be right going by RTE News. Can't be!

How can they tell when they're not testing for community infection?

paul71

BluePlanet wrote: »

I don't go into A&E.
Was there one time in my life about 20 years ago.
So no i don't look at myself.

I agree that unions, drunks, consultants milking the system are a problem.
But that needs to be addressed at a high level (government).
Ireland is very much a top-down country.

No it is not, it is exactly the opposite.

I will give you an analogy.

The people of Kerry vote in the Healeys Raes to get a road and hospital.

Healeys Raes filibuster legislation in the Dail for 2 years preventing new anti drink driving legislation so they can preserve profits in their pub.

Dozens of people are victims of dunk drivers costing our service millions.

No new hospital in Kerry.

caveat emptor

Talisman wrote: »

Would love to see something like this for mapping the potential fallout from the Cheltenham Festival.

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

All those idiots going to beach at same time. What could go wrong.
We clearly have the potential to spy on everyone. I had to kind of laugh when people tasing about contact tracing manually. These tools exist. We've bought them. We have people using them today. I don't agree with them but they are pretty handy at a time like this. Only reason we are not using them is they are a secret. Now they are not. Please use them thanks.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1243999886292463618

stockshares

mouldybiscuits wrote: »

Agreed. They donated a lot of much needed medical equipment to us we should definitely become closer with them as a nation after this situation has ended. From what I've heard all USA has done is tried to move EU medical supply companies to USA in the midst of this pandemic. As a country we need to get our priorities right. Russia and China have shown us they can be useful friends to the EU, we can't continue to be puppets for America in their economic wars. I hope going forward we will get these priorities right.

Netherlands have returned faulty equipment from China.
600,000face masks returned. Spain Austria and Czech Republic have had similar problems.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coroanvirus-holland-recalls-over-half-a-million-masks-imported-from-china-2020-3?amp&r=US&IR=T&__twitter_impression=true

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/262896058/600-000-mondkapjes-uit-china-afgekeurd-door-ministerie

paul71

paul71 wrote: »

We are 7th per capita in health expenditure in OECD. $5,200 per person compared to $5,300 in Germany, there is no underfunding.

Total nonsense to compare us with Germany. Like for like us with countries of similar population as procurement volume discount means that Germany get much more for their euro.
It'll still paint our HSE administration as a nightmare but will be a much more accurate/informative figure.

As for blaming unions? Unions are there to represent the best interests of their members, that (generally) FF bowed to them every election, during the Tiger Years, is weak leadership and not union's fault. They were doing their job, the politicians were not.

The national pay agreements also is a complete nightmare. To even attempt to properly pay our shift working frontline staff means that you have to worry about every other public service sector requiring a raise. Nurses, Paramedics, Fire, Garda should not be linked to the Mon-Fri set (and I include myself in this). Again, this is not the fault of unions. More weak leadership attempting to purchase elections.

The administrative section of the HSE is completely bloated (yes I have first hand experience of this). I am a proper lefty but even I can see that there is no efficiency there. I would never advocate for overworking people but there is also rampant underwork.

BluePlanet

paul71 wrote: »

No it is not, it is exactly the opposite.

I will give you an analogy.

The people of Kerry vote in the Healeys Raes to get a road and hospital.

Healeys Raes filibuster legislation in the Dail for 2 years preventing new anti drink driving legislation so they can preserve profits in their pub.

Dozens of people are victims of dunk drivers costing our service millions.

No new hospital in Kerry.

If filibuster is problem in legislating then it can only be fixed by legislation.
Put to referendum if need be.

Field east

the whole year inn wrote: »

I find it very easy to self isolate. People make up non sence trying to make it hard. We have internet access ,any streaming, gaming ,learning most part is for free. Music any song you want . You exercise unless a pro athlete 2km is more than enough , you can literally weight train with your own body.No shortage of food , no fear of evictions, clean water from the tap .
War times my hole, we are literally asked to do nothing and still people cant do that.

The various media presenters are no help either. They almost all start off by saying something along the lines of “ how are you today” , “ are you down”, “,Do you have good and bad days”, “ here are a few tips to help you make it “

Achasanai

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

1. People presenting at A&E with minor injuries that could be handled by small injury clinics, e.g. St. John's Hospital in Limerick instead of UHL.

2. Alcohol and drug related admissions. Saturday night fights.

3. Wards being used at old folks homes. Bed blocking.

As A&Es have been largely cleared by the corona virus, I have not heard reports of citizens dying by the thousand from regular ailments.

You also have a lot of elective surgeries having been postponed. They will have to be done at some point!

Roger_007

megabomberman wrote: »

Good post Coyote, I just want to mention that since the majority of our cases have been detected in the past week our cases per death is artificially high, South Korea's slid from 100+ to where it is now as cases slowly resolved to recovery or death. We still have a ways to go, but to be confident that we are detecting most of our cases that 67 should be 100+ ala Germany.

We are obvious doing far better than the UK, France etc.

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

caveat emptor

MipMap wrote: »

During the famine food was exported from Ireland.


Why do people think that a US company, based in Ireland, would serve our
needs first?


Do they Think our government would stand up to Trump?

About the ventilators. Countries are sequestering ****. (that's the right word. look it up) We should dip our toe in the water. I saw supplies from Italy were blocked. It's clear international norms are suspended. We need to grow a pair of balls and play big boy football.

PowerToWait

all about the mane wrote: »

They are right

Just think critically about why it is supposedly useless to wear a mask? And ask yourself why every official in every news clip you’ve seen from every country in the world, police, soldiers for example, and Gardaí here, not to mention all the rush to get masks for health care workers globally.

Is it to look cool?

caveat emptor

Sam Quentin wrote: »

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

Read Edward Snowdens book or understand technology at a fundamental level. Either way it's out there. Why to criminals use "burner phones"?

This is a a pandemic

paul71

Deleted User wrote: »

Total nonsense to compare us with Germany. Like for like us with countries of similar population as procurement volume discount means that Germany get much more for their euro.


It'll still paint our HSE administration as a nightmare but will be a much more accurate/informative figure.

Its a factual figure how much more accurate do you require than a straight fact? Would you propose we spend 10k per head?

Harry Palmr

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

Which is why if it's sheltered accommodation for the elderly and nursing homes that are accounting for a large part of ICU and deaths we should actually know that as it would help put some meaningful context on the stats.

all about the mane

PowerToWait wrote: »

Just think critically about why it is supposedly useless to wear a mask? And ask yourself why every official in every news clip you’ve seen from every country in the world, police, soldiers for example, and Gardaí here, not to mention all the rush to get masks for health care workers globally.

Is it to look cool?

I have to wear a mask as part of my job. I know the upsides and downsides of wearing them. Their usefulness is negligible in a situation like this.
What are you talking about every official in every clip. That is outright bullsh1t

caveat emptor

givyjoe wrote: »

But but but, masks don't help...

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

Signore Fancy Pants

Look at this flute.

Be careful out there.

https://twitter.com/GardaTraffic/status/1244140535360733186?s=19

all about the mane

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

Seriously. Quoting some bullsh1t twitter account. Drawing the conclusion that the graph you have up is laughable.