CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Kivaro

For India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and most if not all countries in Africa, this virus will cause utter devastation. The numbers of dead will be unimaginable.
These countries will need the western world's help if/when we recover.

timmy_mallet

ACitizenErased wrote: »

UK release full testing numbers so far.
https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1244253460025036801?s=21

15% positive. Farce.

BanditLuke

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That top picture is not of an EI flight. Has been doing the rounds on social media.

It's a Lufthansa flight

You are actually kidding me? Ah come on that can't be true just because it's on Twitter

timmy_mallet

Kivaro wrote: »

For India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and most if not all countries in Africa, this virus will cause utter devastation. The numbers of dead will be unimaginable.
These countries will need the western world's help if/when we recover.

Well this is it. They'll be left to fend for themselves. And the lockdown, pretend do gooders on here will be nowhere to be seen.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

iguana wrote: »

But it's not wrong to test as many people as possible. That's exactly the right thing to do. What they got wrong was not having a fraction of the necessary testing capability. When they couldn't hide that, they didn't hold their hands up and say, 'sorry, we can't test like we should so we have to triage people waiting for tests far more stringently.' They just made out that it was the fault of the people with symptoms.

That is what they said. The fever+other symptom thing was clearly done because they couldn’t test more people than that. I don’t see any denial there.

stockshares

Can anyone confirm if Paul Reid said Hse is testing 5000 people a day currently

and

has testing has been suspended in Cork and Dublin today because there's no more testing kits.

JP Liz V1

Wolf359f wrote: »

Is that 20k a guess or have you a source?
Last count was 17,992 on the 24th. Averaging 1622 tests a day.
I'd guess we're at least at 25k tests (conservative estimate)
That's 5175/mil population.
UK are at 1827/mil
We're not going at a snail's pace

If PUC Cork is doing 1000 tests a day surely Dublin would be doing 2000 to 3000 tests a day with all it's centres

iwillyeah1234

Portuguese schoolboy , 14 , with no underlying conditions , dies from covid19

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164787/14-year-old-boy-Portugals-youngest-coronavirus-victim-Ovar-near-Porto.html

fritzelly

Hrududu wrote: »

Not really. I know someone who was diagnosed and his wife and kids have no symptoms. This is about a week post confirmation. Maybe they’ll get it, maybe not. But I wouldn’t assume that everyone in a house will get it if one does.

No symptoms means nothing, you assume you have it

Happy4all

timmy_mallet wrote: »

15% positive. Farce.

Why so?

Multipass

Hrududu wrote: »

Not really. I know someone who was diagnosed and his wife and kids have no symptoms. This is about a week post confirmation. Maybe they’ll get it, maybe not. But I wouldn’t assume that everyone in a house will get it if one does.

Most likely they are infected but asymptomatic

silverharp

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Portuguese schoolboy , 14 , with no underlying conditions , dies from covid19

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164787/14-year-old-boy-Portugals-youngest-coronavirus-victim-Ovar-near-Porto.html

i'd say ignore all these stories, generally somewhere embedded it will mention that an autopsy has yet to be performed.

stephenjmcd

BanditLuke wrote: »

You are actually kidding me? Ah come on that can't be true just because it's on Twitter

Well seeing as Lufthansa posted it the other day its 1 instance of social media.

Irish flight due to arrive in the next half an hour into dub

cameramonkey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/priscillalynch/status/1244227835503534082?s=21

https://twitter.com/sharonmlynch/status/1244228767368671234?s=21

They say they are doing 5000 a day tests. HSE also said the Cork facility had closed because of lack of testing kits, those statements dont seem to be compatible. also said lab facilities are expanding, They did not say how many test they have processed.No overall figure for amount of test processed.

Marsden35

Kivaro wrote: »

For India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and most if not all countries in Africa, this virus will cause utter devastation. The numbers of dead will be unimaginable.
These countries will need the western world's help if/when we recover.

Middle East bar Iran seem to be coping so far.

JP Liz V1

stockshares wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if Paul Reid said Hse is testing 5000 people a day currently

and

has testing has been suspended in Cork and Dublin today because there's no more testing kits.

What, Why Suspended?

igCorcaigh

Kivaro wrote: »

For India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and most if not all countries in Africa, this virus will cause utter devastation. The numbers of dead will be unimaginable.
These countries will need the western world's help if/when we recover.

My fear too. Hasn't really spiked yet in these regions. Might the climate help? Rhetorical question, I know.

fritzelly

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

So what if I need to go to hospital, surely wearing a face mask then is needed?

Why you going to hospital?

iguana

Ger Roe wrote: »

Stay in and you won't have to be tested.

And we're supposed to do that forever? Testing is extremely, extremely important when it comes to being able to reduce restrictions. We need to have an accurate idea about who has recovered and what kind of immunity they have in order to be able to make accurate predictions about when it's safe to reduce which restrictions. We're in damage limitation mode right now. And the longer and stricter a damage limitation period, the more damage we do to other sectors of society. Without proper data, we do other damage and people will get sick and die because of that too.

There is a reason that 'knowledge is power' is such a truism. We can't properly fight this virus without knowledge. And we are sorely lacking so, so much of it right now.

MD1990

it is a bit worrying that the lockdown is Europe has seen no decline in cases & deaths in any country so far.

Have my doubts it will work as well in Europe as in China. They were more meticulous with theirs

igCorcaigh

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What, Why Suspended?

Testing has been suspended in PUC Cork due to lack of testing kits.

SharpshooterTom

Dr.Fauci thinks ultimately the US will end up somewhere between 100,000-200,000 deaths when this is all said and done, presumably over the next two years.

The US has 5 times the population of the UK so their projections of at least 20,000 looks in the same ballpark.

bekker

Thought this testing issue had been put to bed, the number of tests daily either trumpeted or actually carried out is irrelevant.

It is the number of test that the labs can process to results daily that is the determining factor for the potential tracing and cluster identification benefits that could come from testing.

There is no basis for saying how Ireland is doing viz-a-vie other countries because there is no reliable, comparable data available.

Personally I think we have fared better than some and not as well as others, but it's early days here, and I am very concerned that virus has been in the wild since late February and community transmission is now over 52%.

From the HSE public interactions, it is apparent that nothing has changed within HSE, Health and IMO CMO hierarchy.

Kivaro

igCorcaigh wrote: »

My fear too. Hasn't really spiked yet in these regions. Might the climate help? Rhetorical question, I know.

It is a good question.
Keep an eye on the situation in Thailand, and how it is spreading in that warm/hot country.

coolshannagh28

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What, Why Suspended?

There is an inevitable point where testing is overwhelmed , we should not have reached that because of our low numbers but there are other factors.

Strazdas

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Portuguese schoolboy , 14 , with no underlying conditions , dies from covid19

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164787/14-year-old-boy-Portugals-youngest-coronavirus-victim-Ovar-near-Porto.html

The suspicion would be with these young people sadly dying that they have undiagnosed medical problems and were not as healthy as they appeared.

john_doe.

silverharp wrote: »

i'd say ignore all these stories, generally somewhere embedded it will mention that an autopsy has yet to be performed.

Why ignore , the disease causes respiratory issues . It can't be said for certain but it's very likely that was the cause.

bilston

MD1990 wrote: »

it is a bit worrying that the lockdown is Europe has seen no decline in cases & deaths in any country so far.

Have my doubts it will work as well in Europe as in China. They were more meticulous with theirs

It takes time for a lockdown to work.

And for the record there has absolutely been a decline in the percentage of new cases in both Italy and Spain.

igCorcaigh

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Dr.Fauci thinks ultimately the US will end up somewhere between 100,000-200,000 deaths when this is all said and done, presumably over the next two years.

The US has 5 times the population of the UK so their projections of at least 20,000 looks in the same ballpark.

I would consider those numbers on the low side.
I apologise for my pessimism, I have felt that way from the start.

Away With The Fairies

fritzelly wrote: »

Why you going to hospital?

With breathing difficulties

Kivaro

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Dr.Fauci thinks ultimately the US will end up somewhere between 100,000-200,000 deaths when this is all said and done, presumably over the next two years.

The US has 5 times the population of the UK so their projections of at least 20,000 looks in the same ballpark.

And I was extrapolating that for Ireland earlier this morning ..... approximately 1,540 deaths in Ireland?

wakka12

ACitizenErased wrote: »

UK release full testing numbers so far.
https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1244253460025036801?s=21

Very similar rate of positives to Ireland then. About 15% or so. Most continental nations seem to be averaging 20-25% positve rate, it seems the virus is simply not as widespread in Ireland and UK as mainland Europe

igCorcaigh

Strazdas wrote: »

The suspicion would be with these young people sadly dying that they have undiagnosed medical problems and were not as healthy as they appeared.

I would imagine so, yes.

Bob24

MD1990 wrote: »

it is a bit worrying that the lockdown is Europe has seen no decline in cases & deaths in any country so far.

Have my doubts it will work as well in Europe as in China. They were more meticulous with theirs

bilston wrote: »

It takes time for a lockdown to work.

And for the record there has absolutely been a decline in the percentage of new cases in both Italy and Spain.

I think you’re both right in a way. Lockdowns in Europe are having an effect to slow the spread of the virus (without the lockdown Italy would have way more deaths), but the effect is not as visible as in China as European lockdowns are not as strict (plus in China everyone going out of their home has been wearing masks).

Christy42

wakka12 wrote: »

Very similar rate of positives to Ireland then. About 15% or so. Most continental nations seem to be averaging 20-25% positve rate, it seems the virus is simply not as widespread in Ireland and UK as mainland Europe

A far lower % of the population tested though (were we not on about 3.7 per thousand a while back). This would put them on 2 in every thousand tested.

Marsden35

Strazdas wrote: »

The suspicion would be with these young people sadly dying that they have undiagnosed medical problems and were not as healthy as they appeared.

Some perfectly healthy people's immune systems go into overdrive when fighting a virus and end up causing major complications.

There will always be statistical anomalies. This mostly affects older people but will kill perfectly healthy people too.

And conversely that 101 year old Italian who had Covid-19, survived.

iguana

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

With breathing difficulties

Have you called ahead and been advised to come in? I've been having breathing difficulties for 12 days and wouldn't go near a doctor/hospital for fear of infecting a hcp or someone potentially vulnerable. If you haven't already, start with a telephone check up with an out of hours doctor or if it's extremely bad an emergency operator.

igCorcaigh

190 new deaths in England.

I wonder how many in London?

It has been only recently we have seen big cases in large cities such as London, New York, Madrid.

Bergamo in Italy was a fairly small city. These larger cities have a different type of public transport. Very worrying. Given the time lag.

Sorry again for my pessimism.

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/RCarrollTV/status/1244256898737754112?s=19

Flight due in around 10 mins

woohoo!!!

Flight is going past Drogheda now

CIARAN_BOYLE

bilston wrote: »

It takes time for a lockdown to work.

And for the record there has absolutely been a decline in the percentage of new cases in both Italy and Spain.

Does anyone have a regional breakdown for Italy and Spain? Now and for say two weeks ago.

It's my understanding that the number of new cases in lombardy and Madrid have fallen significantly while the numbers in other regions have increased significantly.

In both countries when the lockdown came into effect in the worst regions first we saw millions travel home to their families in midly effected regions spreading the disease.

otnomart

ACitizenErased wrote: »

UK release full testing numbers so far.
https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1244253460025036801?s=21

127 700 total is still far off the Italian number of nearly 430 000 total as per yesterday.
Italy has kept the testing effort, yesterday alone: 35 400 tests
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6

Quantum Erasure

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Portuguese schoolboy , 14 , with no underlying conditions , dies from covid19

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164787/14-year-old-boy-Portugals-youngest-coronavirus-victim-Ovar-near-Porto.html

the 21 year old woman that was meant to have died of Coronavirus in England, it seemed it the virus wasn't the cause,

‘Middleton was taken to Wexham Park hospital in Slough last weekend after she had a heart attack. Attempts to resuscitate her failed and she was pronounced dead soon after arriving… A Berkshire coroner said the death was related to Covid-19 after being told Middleton had a cough, the source said. But this surprised medics at the hospital, who have not recorded it as a coronavirus incident.’

An NHS source tells the Guardian that ‘the coroner’s move “raised eyebrows” at the hospital because [Middleton] had not tested positive for the disease’.

but then that article was removed from the Guardian website pending review, so...

recyclebin

Plane spotters still out in force by the looks of it!

Kivaro

Marsden35 wrote: »

Some perfectly healthy people's immune systems go into overdrive when fighting a virus and end up causing major complications.

There will always be statistical anomalies. This mostly affects older people but will kill perfectly healthy people too.

And conversely that 101 year old Italian who had Covid-19, survived.

Important to remember.

wakka12

MD1990 wrote: »

it is a bit worrying that the lockdown is Europe has seen no decline in cases & deaths in any country so far.

Have my doubts it will work as well in Europe as in China. They were more meticulous with theirs

It may not be decreasing but it is plateauing in many countries, and that was the goal. A sudden drop was never expected, it is a flattening of a curve, not stopping cases dead in their tracks

Shn99

HSE predicting a peak in mid April, would the peak likely last for weeks?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0329/1127114-hse-briefing-covid/

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

iguana wrote: »

And we're supposed to do that forever? Testing is extremely, extremely important when it comes to being able to reduce restrictions. We need to have an accurate idea about who has recovered and what kind of immunity they have in order to be able to make accurate predictions about when it's safe to reduce which restrictions. We're in damage limitation mode right now. And the longer and stricter a damage limitation period, the more damage we do to other sectors of society. Without proper data, we do other damage and people will get sick and die because of that too.

There is a reason that 'knowledge is power' is such a truism. We can't properly fight this virus without knowledge. And we are sorely lacking so, so much of it right now.

People need to be patient. It’s still very early days. Just because people want the restrictions lifted ASAP doesn’t mean it’s going to be possible. There are still many unknowns and it will take a while to make breakthroughs and make sense of the considerable data being generated. Research is laborious. This could go on for months and months and people need to adjust to the idea of that.

timmy_mallet

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Dr.Fauci thinks ultimately the US will end up somewhere between 100,000-200,000 deaths when this is all said and done, presumably over the next two years.

The US has 5 times the population of the UK so their projections of at least 20,000 looks in the same ballpark.

So somewhere around 2x as deadly as flu.

flashforward

Martina1991 wrote: »

When you say "doing"

Did they say taking 5000 swabs a day or processing 5000 swabs a day

They are taking 5000 swabs a day.
They sidestep or avoid questions regarding how many of these are been converted to results.

One conference mentioned capacity to convert 1350 tests a day. Another poster said he had seen 700 swabs converted go results per day.

I cant understand how everyone is not focusing on this key topic. The number of swabs taken per day does not matter a sh1te unless we are converting them to results.
Of course we are going to sit on ~300/ day until this changes