CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

expectationlost

is your ability to handle the virus related to your lung capacity or immune response or both?

wakka12

Shn99 wrote: »

HSE predicting a peak in mid April, would the peak likely last for weeks?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0329/1127114-hse-briefing-covid/

Yeah, hardly anybody in Italy is going outside, and yet still there are thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths daily. Its been (3 weeks?) since Italy locked down and looks like itll be at least another week or two until cases drop to a manageable level

mick987

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I would consider those numbers on the low side.
I apologise for my pessimism, I have felt that way from the start.

The British government would take you hand off for 20000 Died

blackcard

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

A Dub in Glasgo

recyclebin wrote: »

Plane spotters still out in force by the looks of it!

I counted 2 in that video clip and they may be media. Not really 'out in force'

wakka12

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

Nobody has natural immunity to an unknown/new virus. You never get flu because you either had the strain before or were lucky enough to simply not catch it, its nothing to do with your natural immunity to it, and absolutely no bearing on whether you will catch covid or not. Perhaps you do have a strong immune system and may suffer mild or no smptoms from flu and or covid, but that is not the same thing as being immune.

People sneeze even when they are not sick, hay fever, nose irriation, something spicy/some water up your nose, whatever.

briany

wakka12 wrote: »

It may not be decreasing but it is plateauing in many countries, and that was the goal. A sudden drop was never expected, it is a flattening of a curve, not stopping cases dead in their tracks

So, if we get this thing to plateau, then that's obviously a step in the right direction. The question then comes as to what the next step is. People will want restrictions on movement eased as soon as possible, but what good will that be if it causes a worse second wave which necessitates another lockdown as bad as before? That's where we need to be careful.

owlbethere

Marsden35 wrote: »

What's tourism like in Ireland during January - March? I'd suspect low. I think this was an advantage Ireland and the likes of Sweden, Denmark and Norway have. Little in the way of seeding. You almost certainly won't see an Italy/Spain style outbreak in any of these countries. Although Sweden seems to be taking quite a lax attitude and may pay for it through community spread.

I hope you are right but I fear it might be only a matter of time but it explodes on us here. Community transmission is occurring and really some things I see, well there's no cure for stupid and yeah, we're fcuked.

CIARAN_BOYLE

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

Chances are that someone with covid 19 will touch stuff they coght on. Then the virus will be on their hand. If they then touch something it will be on the surface. If you then touch the surface you can get it.

Bit cynical

Coyote wrote: »

Hi deisedevil

it's not a spreadsheet but i think it covers what you are looking for

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Regards

Coyote

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:



On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in. The death figures lag behind.

Source: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

donfers

niallo27 wrote: »

Well at least postive cases cant go up if you cant test anyone!!!!!!

which will increase morale, thereby reducing levels of anxiety and stress, thereby lessening damage to the immune system...all part of the masterplan, please bear with us, we are operating on a level way beyond the day to day thinking of mere mortals

GooglePlus

timmy_mallet wrote: »

So somewhere around 2x as deadly as flu.

How did you come to that?

JeffKenna

donfers wrote: »

which will increase morale, thereby reducing levels of anxiety and stress, thereby lessening damage to the immune system...all part of the masterplan, please bear with us, we are operating on a level way beyond the day to day thinking of mere mortals

A cunning plan indeed.

SharpshooterTom

Just to emphasise how bad the situation is in New York, deaths as of yesterday:

New York +277
Other 49 states +238

ettravel

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

cameramonkey

ettravel wrote: »

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

Seems Ireland has no test kits left either.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. It provides for figures normalized by population. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:



On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in.

While each death is tragic we have too few to really extrapolate to a larger population. Hopefully we won't get enough to properly track.

Also some seem to think it is accurate because bad cases are being found but I have my doubts that every death is being tracked in all countries. Many will be missed if they don't test in time. See the lack of test kits in some states in the US.

Mervyn Skidmore

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

People infected/healthy sneeze anyway. As far as I know there is no proof of any immunity.

pjohnson

88 in ICU would be cumulative again? So why say in ICU today?

The figures are a mess.

igCorcaigh

ettravel wrote: »

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

The world's most "developed" nation.
We have some serious rethinking to do.

SharpshooterTom

Spain already at +546 at noon is not a good sign, might surpass +1000 later today.

thecomedian

GooglePlus wrote: »

How did you come to that?

Something like over 50000 die from flu in the US.

kilkenny31

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:



On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in.

Agreed, this is a better measure. Ireland can't be on the same trajectory as Spain in overall deaths. We really need to ralise our population and population density is far less. We have 1 mid size mid density city the rest of our cities are small with low population density.

It is very unlikely that we will see 700 people die in a single day here. More likely at the peak of this we will see maybe 50-100 people die in a day. Which is still dramatic given we are a small country.

Reckless Abandonment

briany wrote: »

So, if we get this thing to plateau, then that's obviously a step in the right direction. The question then comes as to what the next step is. People will want restrictions on movement eased as soon as possible, but what good will that be if it causes a worse second wave which necessitates another lockdown as bad as before? That's where we need to be careful.

I'd say and relaxing will be done slowly. Any business currently closed will be let reopen if they can follow the same system shops and pharmacies are using at the moment. . Customer separation etc. I can also see this been fine tuned. Anyone with a closed business would be advised to see if something similar can be done in theirs. As I can't see them getting back open without it.

FVP3

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

1) nobody is immune to everything. In fact its best to get some immunity over time by getting sick occasionally for common colds and flus. You may be asymptomatic though and had them without realising.
2) it could be transmitted by touching if the infected person had recently sneezed or coughed into his hand.
3) Sneezing doesnt seem to be that common but people could sneeze anyway with it, if they have some other allergy, or whatever.

expectationlost

do we run out of ICU beds for flu (plus complications) patients in normal (bad) flu year?

JP Liz V1

cameramonkey wrote: »

Seems Ireland has no test kits left either.

Where are the test kits coming from, China? Can Ireland not manufacture any?

iguana

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

People need to be patient. It’s still very early days. Just because people want the restrictions lifted ASAP doesn’t mean it’s going to be possible. There are still many unknowns and it will take a while to make breakthroughs and make sense of the considerable data being generated. Research is laborious. This could go on for months and months and people need to adjust to the idea of that.

Research requires accurate data which we are working without. It's not about being patient or not. It's about wanting to do this as correctly as possible. It's about doing this while causing the least harm possible. Both harm from the virus and harm from having our economies stop. And the ****ing massive harm that 'cocooning' will cause to the mental health of the vulnerable. Loneliness is deadly to the elderly. Not as deadly as the virus but we shouldn't be cutting vulnerable people off from their loved ones for a second longer than we have to. And equally we shouldn't be lifting restrictions earlier than we should. But we are very, very unlikely to be able to make those accurate calls because we just don't know as much as we had the potential to.

Widdensushi

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Spain already at +546 at noon is not a good sign, might surpass +1000 later today.

the majority of their numbers are in early in day usually

FVP3

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I'd say and relaxing will be done slowly. Any business currently closed will be let reopen if they can follow the same system shops and pharmacies are using at the moment. . Customer separation etc. I can also see this been fine tuned. Anyone with a closed business would be advised to see if something similar can be done in theirs. As I can't see them getting back open without it.

I have a feeling that people who can WFH better get used to it for months. I dont see pubs being opened for months either, and not without major social distancing efforts, ie a low maximum number of people allowed in, probably only by booking.

owlbethere

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Chances are that someone with covid 19 will touch stuff they coght on. Then the virus will be on their hand. If they then touch something it will be on the surface. If you then touch the surface you can get it.

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

CIARAN_BOYLE

stockshares wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if Paul Reid said Hse is testing 5000 people a day currently

and

has testing has been suspended in Cork and Dublin today because there's no more testing kits.

The first point was said this morning. Yes.

Testing has been suspended due to a shortage of specialised equipment. I am unsure if this is test kits or ppe for staff.

froog

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:



On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in. The death figures lag behind.

i'm not sure per capita comparisons are valid. it will spread much faster in smaller countries. san marino and andorra for example top the charts at deaths and cases per capita.

i'm no statistician though, maybe some with experience on here would have a take on that.

FVP3

owlbethere wrote: »

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

Was thinking that yesterday, I often look at best before dates by picking things up but didn't do it yesterday. So shops need to make that more visible somehow and yes, if you touch you buy.

SharpshooterTom

Does anyone find the figures in Iran a bit iffy?

They had +129 deaths back in March 16th, and today they're at +123.

They've been constantly in the 120-150 range for 2 straight weeks. It's just looks weird compared other countries in Europe and North America, no exponential rise.

JP Liz V1

pjohnson wrote: »

88 in ICU would be cumulative again? So why say in ICU today?

The figures are a mess.

Is 88 in ICU today's number?

wakka12

expectationlost wrote: »

do we run out of ICU beds for flu (plus complications) patients in normal (bad) flu year?

No, flu would kill a maximum of 500 in a really bad flu year in Ireland. Generally its around 350 or so a year
https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

FVP3

pjohnson wrote: »

88 in ICU would be cumulative again? So why say in ICU today?

The figures are a mess.

Cumulative is pointless. Utterly useless.

woohoo!!!

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Does find the figures in Iran a bit iffy?

They had +129 deaths back in March 16th, and today they're at +123.

They've been constantly in the 120-150 range for 2 straight weeks. It's just looks weird compared other countries in Europe and North America, no exponential rise.

No doubt that they're lying to save their necks

Cork Boy 53

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Where are the test kits coming from, China? Can Ireland not manufacture any?

No, the equipment coming from China is PPE (face masks, gloves, goggles etc). No testing kits are coming from there on the flights.

BLIZZARD7

pjohnson wrote: »

88 in ICU would be cumulative again? So why say in ICU today?

The figures are a mess.

Where does it say they are cumulative? That would seem pointless indeed.

JP Liz V1

owlbethere wrote: »

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

But if you need to look at ingredients or best before date

JP Liz V1

owlbethere wrote: »

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

But if you need to look at ingredients or best before date

FVP3

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

One wonders how China got this under control so quick when other no European countries could, they didn't even go through a prolonged flattening phase, it's was down as quickly as it was up. Miraculous really.

A full on totalitarian lockdown brought in when they had a few hundred cases. Next.

This thread is full of people not believing the figures from countries they dont like.

kilkenny31

wakka12 wrote: »

No, flu would kill a maximum of 500 in a really bad flu year in Ireland. Generally its between 350 or so a year
https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

I asked this question last night. Does flu have the same complications as COVID-19. I.e. Do most people who die of the flu end up with breathing difficulties and pneumonia thus need ventilation or do they die of other complications?

threeball

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The world's most "developed" nation.
We have some serious rethinking to do.

That's just propaganda and spin. It's the most unequal society on earth. Pockets of unimaginable wealth only a thousand meters from areas that wouldn't be a miss in sub Saharan Africa. Entire third world cities within first world cities. It's one of the reasons America will be decimated, no help for these people. A woman who had insurance was still landed with a 31k hospital bill the other day as her cover wasn't wide enough.

JP Liz V1

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No, the equipment coming from China is PPE (face masks, gloves, goggles etc). No testing kits are coming from there on the flights.

Where does test kits come from so?

blackcard

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is 88 in ICU today's number?

The statement from the HSE today stated that there are 88 people in ICU today so not a cumulative figure

JP Liz V1

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No, the equipment coming from China is PPE (face masks, gloves, goggles etc). No testing kits are coming from there on the flights.

Where does test kits come from so?

briany

What will Christmas look like in the wake of Coronavirus? We could be looking at something of a depressed economy at that time, but also because so many have missed lots of work and school, might those couple of weeks be treated just as a normal work/school period for everyone and not just those who work Christmas anyway?