CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

froog

it's not cumulative, there is 88 in ICU right now.

Cork Boy 53

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is 88 in ICU today's number?

I understood that it was cumulative although other posters are claiming that it`s the current number.

BailMeOut

Irish Times two hours ago

The State’s highest-ranking healthcare officials, at a briefing on Sunday morning, said there were up to 1,200 ICU beds in the country’s public and private hospitals. But they were unable to say by how much ICU capacity in the system could be exceeded by in a surge of severe Covid-19 infections.

There are currently 88 critically ill patients with Covid-19 in ICU beds, of which 66 per cent are in Dublin hospitals. This is almost a seven-fold increase in the past 10 days.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Where does it say they are cumulative? That would seem pointless indeed.

Every other time they have released ICU numbers it has been cumulative, it’s being incorrectly reported everywhere as “in ICU today” but if you actually read the reports from the health emergency team it indicates this is a cumulative number since the beginning and pointless really as far as capacity is concerned.

The wouldn’t be surprised if the irish times article above was incorrect also but as I haven’t see the official working for the numbers given today I can’t be sure.

wakka12

Its hardly cumulative is it, that just seems beyond stupid to report it that way

pjohnson

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is 88 in ICU today's number?

Yesterday (thursday's figure) was cumulative and in the 50's so take away a few of the deaths and youd be in the 40's or less so unless there was 50+ cases today alone I cant see how 88 is the current figure.......

expectationlost

iguana wrote: »

But it's not wrong to test as many people as possible. That's exactly the right thing to do. What they got wrong was not having a fraction of the necessary testing capability. When they couldn't hide that, they didn't hold their hands up and say, 'sorry, we can't test like we should so we have to triage people waiting for tests far more stringently.' They just made out that it was the fault of the people with symptoms.

well if you listened to the briefing the CMO was more willing to say he got it wrong, it was one of the briefings, it was others who less clear about where the blame lay.

march 24th briefing

https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1vAxRBXVEoXxl at 19 minutes



although they are all saying its up to yous to isolate, not up to us have provided enough ICU beds even before this crisis...

OscarMIlde

iguana wrote: »

But it's not wrong to test as many people as possible. That's exactly the right thing to do. What they got wrong was not having a fraction of the necessary testing capability. When they couldn't hide that, they didn't hold their hands up and say, 'sorry, we can't test like we should so we have to triage people waiting for tests far more stringently.' They just made out that it was the fault of the people with symptoms.

These kits have expiry dates. The reagents for RT-PCR are very expensive and some components have to be stored in -20C freezers. The NVRL and other testing labs would have been buying at their usual capacity until recently. Now there is a surge in demand for these components worldwide, and manufacturing is struggling to keep up. It's not really fair to blame the labs if stock is taking longer to reach them or orders are not being fully fulfilled.

timmy_mallet

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Right now, I am really banking on the competitiveness of scientists (which many are) to drive the research in coronavirus. Whoever makes the big breakthrough will be a hero. C’mon, scientists, let your egos push you! You know you want that acclaim.

That's exactly what we need, an ego driving research, a claim been pushed through without adequate testing or, worse, hidden side-effects, fast-tracked FDA approval, and the same 97% of non-postivie test recipients lining to be injected by whatever it is that the mad pharma/scientist wanted to be first to market with.

froog

BailMeOut wrote: »

Irish Times two hours ago





https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029

1200 ICU beds? that's great news.

redarmy

Six more Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland

expectationlost

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I understood that it was cumulative although other posters are claiming that it`s the current number.

again in the briefing they said "88 today" https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1RDGlQRXwmMJL
although the phrase used in the docs is ICU admissions (to date) https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2028.03.2020v1.0_website%20version.pdf

threeball

timmy_mallet wrote: »

That's exactly what we need, an ego driving research, a claim been pushed through without adequate testing or, worse, hidden side-effects, fast-tracked FDA approval, and the same 97% of non-postivie test recipients lining to be injected by whatever it is that the mad pharma/scientist wanted to be first to market with.

I'll be at the back of that queue thanks very much

briany

briany wrote: »

What will Christmas look like in the wake of Coronavirus? We could be looking at something of a depressed economy at that time, but also because so many have missed lots of work and school, might those couple of weeks be treated just as a normal work/school period for everyone and not just those who work Christmas anyway?

Odd thing to worry about in March...
But Christmas will still be Christmas. We’re not going to keep the kids locked in for weeks or months and then tell them Santa isn’t real.

pjohnson

The ICU figure seems to chop and change daily re. cumulative or not. There were claims of 71 Friday in ICU.

blackcard

pjohnson wrote: »

Yesterday (thursday's figure) was cumulative and in the 50's so take away a few of the deaths and youd be in the 40's or less so unless there was 50+ cases today alone I cant see how 88 is the current figure.......

Paul Reid, CEO of the HSE, was quite specific today in stating that there are currently 88 people in ICU's

Mervyn Skidmore

briany wrote: »

What will Christmas look like in the wake of Coronavirus? We could be looking at something of a depressed economy at that time, but also because so many have missed lots of work and school, might those couple of weeks be treated just as a normal work/school period for everyone and not just those who work Christmas anyway?

Christmas music will be different this year. Chris Rea will be renaming and re-recording his classic, it'll be "Staying Home for Christmas".

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

iguana wrote: »

Research requires accurate data which we are working without. It's not about being patient or not. It's about wanting to do this as correctly as possible. It's about doing this while causing the least harm possible. Both harm from the virus and harm from having our economies stop. And the ****ing massive harm that 'cocooning' will cause to the mental health of the vulnerable. Loneliness is deadly to the elderly. Not as deadly as the virus but we shouldn't be cutting vulnerable people off from their loved ones for a second longer than we have to. And equally we shouldn't be lifting restrictions earlier than we should. But we are very, very unlikely to be able to make those accurate calls because we just don't know as much as we had the potential to.

How do you know that? I would be amazed if there aren’t epidemiologists and other researchers collating data and analysing it throughout all of this. The general public won’t be privy to that information. I know when I was a researcher, I never said much about what I was working on. And if I was working on coronavirus research, I’d definitely be keeping my mouth shut until I had something concrete.

And people DO have to be patient. Research can’t be magicked up. It will take time. A lot of time. That’s the reality.

I’m terminally ill so I hate how this is restricting my already restricted life further and that if I get the virus, it will almost certainly kill me. I am also a pragmatist.

timmy_mallet

igCorcaigh wrote: »

190 new deaths in England.

I wonder how many in London?

It has been only recently we have seen big cases in large cities such as London, New York, Madrid.

Bergamo in Italy was a fairly small city. These larger cities have a different type of public transport. Very worrying. Given the time lag.

Sorry again for my pessimism.

I'm not trying to poke holes in this, but why is it 'very worrying'? It's death, we deal with, we get on with it, worrying is, for me, a strange emotion. Am i wrong?

Corkgirl20

Does anybody know if we’ve tests on order or due to arrive?
Worrying reading about many tests cancelled today !

CIARAN_BOYLE

timmy_mallet wrote: »

That's exactly what we need, an ego driving research, a claim been pushed through without adequate testing or, worse, hidden side-effects, fast-tracked FDA approval, and the same 97% of non-postivie test recipients lining to be injected by whatever it is that the mad pharma/scientist wanted to be first to market with.

Remember Irish class action suit regarding problems in the swine flu vaccine just concluded last November. That was also rushed through.

wakka12

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html/ampRFA
Based on cremation rates, deaths from COVID 19 in Wuhan may be as high as 40,000

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T
British government believe cases in China may be 40 times higher than official figures

igCorcaigh

froog wrote: »

1200 ICU beds? that's great news.

As well as bringing in the privately owned resources, can we bring in the staff? Where is the bottleneck?

r93kaey5p2izun

The UK ICU/critical figure of 163 seems unrealistically low.

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

Odd thing to worry about in March...
But Christmas will still be Christmas. We’re not going to keep the kids locked in for weeks or months and then tell them Santa isn’t real.

It's not odd to ask what the knock-on effects will be.

FVP3

timmy_mallet wrote: »

That's exactly what we need, an ego driving research, a claim been pushed through without adequate testing or, worse, hidden side-effects, fast-tracked FDA approval, and the same 97% of non-postivie test recipients lining to be injected by whatever it is that the mad pharma/scientist wanted to be first to market with.

well, it would be a start.

FVP3

briany wrote: »

It's not odd to ask what the knock-on effects will be.

Work won't be different over christmas, for those that have jobs.

Mervyn Skidmore

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I'm not trying to poke holes in this, but why is it 'very worrying'? It's death, we deal with, we get on with it, worrying is, for me, a strange emotion. Am i wrong?

Yes, we're all going to die. The worrying thing is that it might be in couple of weeks rather than several years/decades.

Discodog

Health minister Simon Harris has said new lockdown measures which kicked in at midnight last night cannot be in place for “a very long period of time”.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar yesterday evening announced strict new rules which see that people must stay in their homes until Easter Sunday, April 12, apart from a few essential exceptions.

Simon Harris expressed hope there could be some relaxation of the measures after an initial two-week period of enforcement, but he warned that life will not be returning to normal in the short term.

Speaking on RTɒs Radio One weekend special of Morning Ireland this morning, minister Harris said that the strict measures, which kicked in at midnight, are “so significant” that they cannot be in place for “a very long time”.

“The measures that we put in place last night are so significant that they cannot be kept in place too long, you cannot ask people to sustain this for a very long period of time,” he said.

“That’s why we are really asking people to double down for the next two weeks, it’s going to be tough.”

He said that life will not “return to normal” once the two week period is over.

“Will we be in a position on April 12 where life in Ireland will return to normal? Absolutely not, let’s be honest with each other, these measures that we’re going to need to continue to work at,” he explained.

“Do we hope to be in a position in two weeks’ time to say that we made progress and some of the measures can be tweaked or moved or changed? Absolutely,” he said.

He acknowledged that this is may be a difficult time for people who have lost their jobs and are feeling worried or anxious.

“We do have to strip back all of the noise and actually remind people what we are trying to do here- we’re trying to keep each other alive.”

He said that the numbers of people in ICU units in the coming days will rise.

“Over the next number of days, we’re going to see that significantly rise, because remember, people who are admitted to ICU over the next week probably already have this infection,” he said.

“But we would expect, and our medical advisors will expect, that these measures that we’ve now put in place could start to slow down that curve in about 10 days to two weeks, that’s what we’re working towards.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-coronavirus-restrictions-not-sustainable-for-a-long-period-simon-harris-39083391.html

igCorcaigh

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I'm not trying to poke holes in this, but why is it 'very worrying'? It's death, we deal with, we get on with it, worrying is, for me, a strange emotion. Am i wrong?

Because there is a lot of "fuel" in a large city with a concentrated public transport system. That's all.

timmy_mallet

GooglePlus wrote: »

How did you come to that?

By looking at the CDCs stats for Flu.

timmy_mallet

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

Yes, we're all going to die. The worrying thing is that it might be in couple of weeks rather than several years/decades.

Well maybe that's were I differ. Whether it's next week, or next decade, and same for my family, so be it.

FVP3

timmy_mallet wrote: »

By looking at the CDCs stats for Flu.

100,000 would be a severe flu season, and 200,000 would only be achieved for COVID with the restrictions, otherwise it would be more than a million.

igCorcaigh

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I'm not trying to poke holes in this, but why is it 'very worrying'? It's death, we deal with, we get on with it, worrying is, for me, a strange emotion. Am i wrong?

Oh, worry is a strange emotion for me too. I very rarely worry. No point to it. I'm very detached.

I meant the word as the public use it. A cause for concern, reflection, etc.

timmy_mallet

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Remember Irish class action suit regarding problems in the swine flu vaccine just concluded last November. That was also rushed through.

I KNOW. Hence the post.

And you have Harris, a mandatory government mandated medical intervention lover in the driving seat for this.

rossie1977

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html/ampRFA
Based on cremation rates, deaths from COVID 19 in Wuhan may be as high as 40,000

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T
British government believe cases in China may be 40 times higher than official figures

Probably lot more cases in UK too not reported, mayor of Bergamo outright admitted the public numbers in Italy doesn't account for all infections/deaths.

Regardless whether the Chinese lied or not the British government have no-one to blame but themselves for the lax attitude towards the virus for months. The fact that the f**king football association were more proactive than the Tories says it all.

timmy_mallet

FVP3 wrote: »

100,000 would be a severe flu season, and 200,000 would only be achieved for COVID with the restrictions, otherwise it would be more than a million.

100,000 over 2 years, if you read the original post.

And neither of us have any clue what affect restrictions would or wouldn't have.

Talisman

Instagram profiles in Italy have been used to identify individuals who have violated the quarantine

Governments could track COVID-19 lockdowns through social media posts

FVP3

timmy_mallet wrote: »

100,000 over 2 years, if you read the original post.

And neither of us have any clue what affect restrictions would or wouldn't have.

Hi Timmy. Great post.

That said if the restrictions didn't have any effect I don't see why we would be doing them.

However assuming a 1% mortality rate, which is on the low end, it would clearly be higher than 200K in the US were they to "do nothing". At 60% infection of 327M with a mortality of 1% you get 327M * 0.006 =1962000

And here Dr. Fauci says exactly that

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-potential-deaths/index.html

beolight

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/fauci-tricks-trump-into-believing-there-is-no-easter-this-year/amp

Bit cynical

Christy42 wrote: »

While each death is tragic we have too few to really extrapolate to a larger population. Hopefully we won't get enough to properly track.

Also some seem to think it is accurate because bad cases are being found but I have my doubts that every death is being tracked in all countries. Many will be missed if they don't test in time. See the lack of test kits in some states in the US.

I take your point on the numbers. They need to be interpreted with caution especially when low. Nevertheless I think it is a useful number to keep an eye on going forward.

froog wrote: »

i'm not sure per capita comparisons are valid. it will spread much faster in smaller countries. san marino and andorra for example top the charts at deaths and cases per capita.
i'm no statistician though, maybe some with experience on here would have a take on that.

No statistician myself either but I think per capita numbers may in some respects be useful in assessing a countries ability to cope with the virus. Obviously a lot of other factors have to be taken into account too.

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Agreed, this is a better measure. Ireland can't be on the same trajectory as Spain in overall deaths. We really need to ralise our population and population density is far less. We have 1 mid size mid density city the rest of our cities are small with low population density.

It is very unlikely that we will see 700 people die in a single day here. More likely at the peak of this we will see maybe 50-100 people die in a day. Which is still dramatic given we are a small country.

I would guess that lifestyle is also important. We have a low population density but how many interactions does a rural dweller have in Ireland in a day? Possibly we have a lot of rural dwellers who live something more akin to a suburban lifestyle.

Also with regard to urban dwellers I think we probably have a lot more in house shares, room shares and the like than, say, Sweden.

Galway20188

So if I lost my job on 17th March and didn’t receive payment this week I should get 700 on Tuesday?

RandomName2

Yesterday marked the smallest % increase in new cases and deaths in Italy to date.

bilston

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html/ampRFA
Based on cremation rates, deaths from COVID 19 in Wuhan may be as high as 40,000

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T
British government believe cases in China may be 40 times higher than official figures

Sounds like elements within the UK govt are attempting to make political capital over the decision to allow Huawei into the UK 5G network.

That said there can't be many of us who really believe the Chinese statistics.

yourdeadwright

So how many do we think will unfortunately die in Ireland from thisyoud have to imagine it'll be a couple of Thousand in the best case,
Its going to be one of the saddest years in a very very long Tim

Humberto Salazar

bilston wrote: »

Sounds like elements within the UK govt are attempting to make political capital over the decision to allow Huawei into the UK 5G network.

That said there can't be many of us who really believe the Chinese statistics.

Still no official death toll from the Tiananmen Square protests over thirty years later. No I wouldn't accept their figures either.

Mervyn Skidmore

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Well maybe that's were I differ. Whether it's next week, or next decade, and same for my family, so be it.

So you'd have no issue at all if your entire family is wiped out in a fortnight? What's the point of living at all in that case?

OUTOFSYNC

Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

Coyote

Around testing numbers
if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 639
Switzerland 264
Austria 68
Denmark 65
Ireland 36

cases detected per death
Netherlands 15.2
Switzerland 53.3
Austria 121
Denmark 33.8
Ireland 67

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time
a contrary that we know are not testing is the UK they have 15.7 cases detected per death.
France is other contray that has 2314 deaths but only 16.2 cases found for each death

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths

how we deal with the growth and how we slow it are not the same as detecting the number of cases but we are testing better than most is seems

From the HSE press confrence
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0329/1127114-hse-briefing-covid/
A total of 10,700 people are currently waiting for Covid-19 tests here, with over 4,000 waiting to get a test appointment.
Ireland is now testing around 5,000 people a day.
The HSE said it had secured 60,000 more test kits this week and is expecting to procure a further 100,000 a week going forward.

The HSE had already tested more than 18K of people.
the total number of tested people should be close to 30K+ in the next few days



an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.



Normalized by Population
using Normalized by Population can have risks when working out numbers, look at China from a total of 1.6 billion the numbers are very low but the infection was only around one arae of 50 million people
the same can be said of Italy or Spain most cases are around a small parts
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Regards

Coyote

Antares35

/

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So how many do we think will unfortunately die in Ireland from thisyoud have to imagine it'll be a couple of Thousand in the best case,
Its going to be one of the saddest years in a very very long Tim

Why?