CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

dublin99

Spain returning faulty test kits from China:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160931/Spain-returns-faulty-coronavirus-testing-kits-bought-Chinese-company.html

Holland recalls poor quality (fake?) masks from China:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/29/netherlands-recalls-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-chinese-face-masks

Lots of these sweatshop type "sub contractors" producing face masks all over Asia. Look at this one in India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QAWNautQMA

Do we assume the Chinese PPE are all up to standards?

Blueshoe

holyhead wrote: »

I see a poster whining about how the Government is handling this crisis. All I can say is I would rather be here than in the UK or the USA. Yes the Government have made mistakes but the said poster also omitted the extent to which idiotic behaviour by people, i.e. going to cheltenham, also contributed to the crisis we are living through. I think our Government is doing right by the country and us as a people.

Whatever gives you hope. I trust you will remember this period when the austerity inevitably comes with the bill. Pay the piper and all that.

People always say well I wouldn't like to be in the US or UK right now (Trump and Boris) . Would you rather be in Italy or Spain? Never seems to be mentioned

Happy4all

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

My mother just told me she was in Tesco yesterday and was chatting to the cashier when a couple of men paid for a few items and LICKED the notes before handing them to the cashier. POND SCUM. :mad::mad::mad:

Where? Presume security guard and Garda were called?

bekker

Inquitus wrote: »

I think there is enough evidence that China is playing fast and loose with its numbers, they don't count asymptomatic positives for instance.

And we don't even test them.

China may have different methodologies, China may well be glossing figures, unfortunately that is not an uncommon reaction in face of potential adverse criticism.

China may have deliberately under reported cases but so is everybody, testing is by and large based on self-reporting and even deliberate screen testing can have a high number of 'not positive' results, no such thing as a 'negative result'.

Micky 32

growleaves wrote: »

For context:

Influenza - estimated 650,000 deaths per year

Asian Flu - estimated 2 million deaths

Encephalitis lethargica - estimated 1.5 million deaths

Swine Flu - estimated between 150 and 500,000 deaths

Here's the thing. 30,000 does sound low in comparison but we're only a few months with this. If nothing is done what would you reckon the death toll from Covid would be by the end of the year? it's too early for comparisons.

holyhead

cloudatlas wrote: »

Every 20 posts or so someone compares the U.K. to Ireland. The two cannot be compared different population sizes and density. No idea about Cheltenham but the first case in Northern Ireland travelled through Dublin airport as Ireland had not closed it's border. There is no right or wrong approach in this crisis. These comparisons are not helpful.

Yes there is a wrong approach. Boris was happy to knock off old people in the insane pursuit of herd immunity. He changed tack thankfully! I'm simply saying that our Govt is serving us well in this crisis and sometimes you have to point out situations where others are not handling something well to make your point. This isn't about Brit bashing or hating the US.

Ralphyroo

Marsden35 wrote: »

If psoriasis counts as an underlying condition, then we're all f*cked. I've got sinus issues and take a steroid nasal spray, but discontinued use as soon as the first case was confirmed in the UK. Got my wits about me

It's the treatment for psoriasis that's the problem, not the condition. A lot of people with psoriasis are in the group asked to cocoon because they are on immunosuppressants

growleaves

Death rate of flu is about 0.2%
Death rate of Covid-19 is about 3%

No the death rate of Covid-19 is unknown. In Australia the death rate of those tested positive for covid-19 is 0.393% so far. When this is over we'll be able to average the universal death rates and get a true number.

For context the death rate of the Black Death was 60% (admittedly that is the highest estimate).

igCorcaigh

DubInMeath wrote: »

For some people money is life.

My dad did work on a stockbrokers house in the late 70s early 80s, an apprentice on the job asked him for tips on making money and the broker told him to take his tools and throw them in the nearest river as he would only make it by buying and selling.

I don't know what happened to the apprentice apart from he emigrated to Australia, but the broker ended up killing himself after his investments went tits up.

Just...

Nowt as queer as folk.

cloudatlas

holyhead wrote: »

Yes there is a wrong approach. Boris was happy to knock off old people in the insane pursuit of herd immunity. He changed tack thankfully! I'm simply saying that our Govt is serving us well in this crisis and sometimes you have to point out situations where others are not handling something well to make your point. This isn't about Brit bashing or hating the US.

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

owlbethere

holyhead wrote: »

I see a poster whining about how the Government is handling this crisis. All I can say is I would rather be here than in the UK or the USA. Yes the Government have made mistakes but the said poster also omitted the extent to which idiotic behaviour by people, i.e. going to cheltenham, also contributed to the crisis we are living through. I think our Government is doing right by the country and us as a people.

100% spot on with this. I'm not a fan of FG but seeing what they have in the states and in the UK, I think we are lucky we have some one half decent to lead us out from this. They were slow to act and implement decisions in the beginning but they moved.

Spot on about the second part too about people bearing some sort of personal responsibility too. I know if I had plans for Cheltenham or plans for a holiday or a cruise - the risk would be too much and I wouldn't do it. I'd probably lose money but I wouldn't care.

threeball

Talisman wrote: »

Instagram profiles in Italy have been used to identify individuals who have violated the quarantine

Governments could track COVID-19 lockdowns through social media posts

Good, stupid enough to go out and even more stupid to record it. There should be an option to report too. Stupid people deserve to pay for their idiocy, society has been carrying them far too long

igCorcaigh

growleaves wrote: »

No the death rate of Covid-19 is unknown. In Australia the death rate of those tested positive for covid-19 is 0.393% so far. When this is over we'll be able to average the universal death rates and get a true number.

For context the death rate of the Black Death was 60% (admittedly that is the highest estimate).

Yes. We may never know the true mortality rate, even in this modern era.

But it will vary according to the context too. We are only now seeing ICU spaces fill up. This will be a factor in the equation.

pH

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.


(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).



(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?


(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

RobertKK

owlbethere wrote: »

100% spot on with this. I'm not a fan of FG but seeing what they have in the states and in the UK, I think we are lucky we have some one half decent to lead us out from this. They were slow to act and implement decisions in the beginning but they moved.

Spot on about the second part too about people bearing some sort of personal responsibility too. I know if I had plans for Cheltenham or plans for a holiday or a cruise - the risk would be too much and I wouldn't do it. I'd probably lose money but I wouldn't care.

Why compare to bad examples?
To make it look better?

Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

iwillyeah1234

NHS England have announced the death of a frontline consultant , age 55, in Derbyshire , from covid19. He passed away on Saturday night.

He is the first NHS fatality from Corona.

weldoninhio

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Leo’s PR team is working then.

Gynoid

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html/ampRFA
Based on cremation rates, deaths from COVID 19 in Wuhan may be as high as 40,000

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T
British government believe cases in China may be 40 times higher than official figures

Jesus

Blueshoe

pH wrote: »

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.


(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).



(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?


(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

Is there an Irish one? This being Ireland and all I'd be interested.

BanditLuke

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

My mother just told me she was in Tesco yesterday and was chatting to the cashier when a couple of men paid for a few items and LICKED the notes before handing them to the cashier. POND SCUM. :mad::mad::mad:

I wouldn't be against a "The Running Man" type scenario (children of the 80's wil understand) for these vermin. We all need some entertainment in these difficult times.

Marsden35

First confirmed death in Syria from Corona.

J. Marston

This is bullshít weather for a quarantine, not a cloud in the sky. Where's the rain when you want it?

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Happy4all wrote: »

Where? Presume security guard and Garda were called?

The west of Ireland. I’m not sure what happened after that. But what kind of miscreant do you have to be to do that?

Gynoid

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Well maybe that's were I differ. Whether it's next week, or next decade, and same for my family, so be it.

Ahhh, sweet, sweet fatalism on a sunny Sunday afternoon...

holyhead

cloudatlas wrote: »

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

Please outline for me how he has changed tack. I'm really curious now?

Mervyn Skidmore

RobertKK wrote: »

Why compare to bad examples?
To make it look better?

Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

Ireland is nothing like Taiwan either. People need to forget this notion that being an island means anything.

BanditLuke

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Point our exactly how he's "risen massively"

Also lots of health care officials and governments around the world are working tirelessly btw.

What Username Guidelines

pH wrote: »

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.


(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).



(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?


(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

rossie1977

cloudatlas wrote: »

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

UK government completely ignored WHO advice for weeks.

RobertKK

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Excellent in making it worse than it needed to be, this has led and will lead to far more deaths that could have been avoided.

Simon Harris said it was fine for people from Northern Italy to be "out and about" in Dublin when the virus was ravaging Lombardy at the time.
No one including Irish people coming from Northern Italy were quarantined and this is where initial cases came from.

This is not good leadership in health, it is selective memory by people.
It has cost lives.

owlbethere

dublin99 wrote: »

Spain returning faulty test kits from China:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160931/Spain-returns-faulty-coronavirus-testing-kits-bought-Chinese-company.html

Holland recalls poor quality (fake?) masks from China:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/29/netherlands-recalls-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-chinese-face-masks

Lots of these sweatshop type "sub contractors" producing face masks all over Asia. Look at this one in India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QAWNautQMA

Do we assume the Chinese PPE are all up to standards?

Fcuking hell. I hope the batch of PPE that's due for us will be good quality.

iwillyeah1234

Interesting presser in the U.K. right now.

Regional command centres being set up , using military planners , to co-ordinate all fire , ambulance , police and other emergency services.

growleaves

Fcuking hell. I hope the batch of PPE that's due for us will be good quality.

How dare you question the integrity of Chinese manufacturers.











/sarc

holyhead

In terms of updates and detailed reports I highly recommend the guardian uk newspaper site. It's excellent reading but harrowing.

Xertz

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

My mother just told me she was in Tesco yesterday and was chatting to the cashier when a couple of men paid for a few items and LICKED the notes before handing them to the cashier. POND SCUM. :mad::mad::mad:

What was the response from the store?
I hope they called Gardaí and that action was taken.

I mean that’s up there with deliberately contaminating food or consumer goods.

owlbethere

RobertKK wrote: »

Why compare to bad examples?
To make it look better?

Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

Politics has played a part in this crisis. I'm not familiar with Taiwan politics. I'm more familiar with politics from home and from counties closer to home like the UK.

rossie1977

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

Quarantine measures. After 3 weeks you should see cases peak then fall if implemented correctly

Coyote

Blueshoe wrote: »

Is there an Irish one? This being Ireland and all I'd be interested.

Hi Blueshoe

I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

here is the one from yesterday

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

RobertKK

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

Ireland is nothing like Taiwan either. People need to forget this notion that being an island means anything.

It is easier to control borders if one chooses to on an island even with a shared border as we saw during the foot and mouth disease outbreak.

Where the Irish government were able to seal the border to protect the animals that were at risk.
There was nothing like this done to stop another virus.
More was done in the past to protect animals than was done to protect humans in this country in trying to stop a virus entering the country.

Blueshoe

Coyote wrote: »

Hi Blueshoe

I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

here is the one from yesterday

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

Thanks chief

kowloon

ThePopehimself wrote: »

My eyes!

Yeah, sorry it turned out like that!

BanditLuke

Interesting read from a health sector worker in the UK.




I'll be honest, as I see it due to working in Intensive Care. The lack of ventilators, which the government is falling over itself to sort, is not the biggest issue at the moment, it'll be the lack of suitably trained people to operate the ventilators effectively, as part of overall care for a critically unwell patient.

You can give (and we are) non-Intensive Care nurses basic training on ventilators but, as experience is showing, many Covid-19 patients that are being ventilated on Intensive Care Units are effectively in multi organ failure, requiring wider treatment than 'just' ventilation.

Even those patients who aren't in multi organ failure require more complex treatment regimes due to the nature of the high pressures required for effective ventilation and to keep patients as sedated as we can in order that they are compliant with the ventilation settings.

(My apologies but some 'shop talk' will appear now, I'll link to articles explaining what I'm talking about where I can)

We are having to heavily sedate patients far deeper than the levels we usually aim for.

Usually we try to sedate patients to a RASS of 0 to -2, which means patients are very lightly sedated, often able to breath spontaneously under the sedation. This helps maintain strength in muscle groups required for breathing and means that hospital stays are shortened, less rehabilitation is required and patients outcomes are overall much better.

With Covid-19 though we are having to ventilate patients with much higher pressures than we normally would in order to counter the effects of the pneumonia that it causes. These higher pressures cause issues with patients not 'sycronising' with the events, in short because the body finds it uncomfortable and triesto resist (desyncronising). As a result we're generally having to sedate patients to a RASS of-4 to -5 (so-called "flattening them out") and are very often also having to use paralysing medications to ensure total compliance.

This level of sedation then introduces other issues, predominately sedation-related hypotension (low blood pressure), for which we then have to give other medications (inotropes) in order to vasoconstrict the vascular system and keep blood pressure high around the core organs to keep them perfused (well oxygenated via blood flow).

Using inotropes though has a knock-on issue of it's own, or rather two predominate ones; lower blood pressure in kidneys and poor blood flow at the extremities. The former causes a reduction in urine production, leading to poor excretion of harmful waste products within the blood stream, the latter can lead (in extreme case) to necrosis (cell death from oxygen starvation).

To add to this, we are unable to directly treat Covid-19 as there is currently no cure, so we're relying upon patients own immune system to deal with it. This causes other issues, among them; the immune response requiring large amounts of glucose to be released into the blood system to 'feed the body' and, as a consequence of so much glucose being used metabolically, an increase in the amount of Ketones within the blood.

The large amount of glucose needs to both be supplemented (through Nasogastric Feeding) and controlled (with Insulin) to try and restrict the levels of blood glucose. If left unchecked the body will just keep glucose (causing Hyperglycemia) and 'burning it' metabolically and in doing so releasing increasing amounts of Ketone (which is an acid, so causing Ketoacidosis). This rise in acidity, compounded by a drop in urine output, causes a drop in blood Ph, which is incredibly damaging to all parts of the body at a cellular level.

Whilst there is far more involved in looking afte a patient on Intensive Care I hope that this brief explanation shows that 'merely' putting someone on a ventilator has a knock-on to multiple organ groups, all that in turn have a knock-on to other ones.

Teaching someone to operate a ventilator is (comparatively) simple. Teaching someone how to titrate medications, adjust ventilator settings, when to give additional medications to address issues with observed patient 'vitals' etc is not. This is why, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, it can take 12-18 months of additional specialist training before a registered nurse can operate safely as an Intensive Care nurse.

We have to be able to keep the most dependant patients alive without the benefit of calling a doctor for advice all the time. Indeed, generally, the junior doctors will cede to the knowledge of nurses with regards to Intensive Care patients as we're often far more experienced in such s specialist ares than they are (due to the nature of their training/placement program).

- Ventilators are not the sole issue.

ACitizenErased

Coyote wrote: »

Hi Blueshoe

I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

here is the one from yesterday

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

Is there a reason you're using 500 as the number for ICU? HSE saying 1200.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029

igCorcaigh

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

Yeah, I'd like to know this too.
What causes the downward curve in epidemics, apart from herd immunity or lack of "fuel", social distancing etc.

Or just all those things?

rossie1977

10s of thousands of animals were slaughtered on this island during foot and mouth

thebaz

I found this troubling and sad (ther will be other tragedies apart from virus deaths alone ) :-

Thomas Schaefer, the finance minister of Germany’s Hesse state, took his own life apparently after becoming “deeply worried” about how to cope with the economic fallout from the epidemic.

gabeeg

holyhead wrote: »

I see a poster whining about how the Government is handling this crisis. All I can say is I would rather be here than in the UK or the USA. Yes the Government have made mistakes but the said poster also omitted the extent to which idiotic behaviour by people, i.e. going to cheltenham, also contributed to the crisis we are living through. I think our Government is doing right by the country and us as a people.

But the government should have intervened in the case of Cheltenham, advised not to go, and said anyone returning would have to quarantine for two weeks.

I think they're doing their level best now, but we're in this sorry situation because they, like so many other governments in the west, sat on their hands for the first weeks of this crisis and told us all it was grand.

If you want people to stop criticising them then perhaps you could be a little less effusive in your praise.

RobertKK

owlbethere wrote: »

Politics has played a part in this crisis. I'm not familiar with Taiwan politics. I'm more familiar with politics from home and from counties closer to home like the UK.

The UK is a country like Ireland that made it up as they went along and now the Tories are surging in the polls.
It is easy to make people think one is doing a good job.

Coyote

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Is there a reason you're using 500 as the number for ICU? HSE saying 1200.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029

Hi

from the link

There are close to 500 dedicated ICU beds in the public and private hospitals

I believe that they are trying to incres the number and the 1200 number was critical care beds, I don't clam to know what the difference is from ICU to critical care beds

blackcard

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

This is selfish, ignorant and criminal behaviour. When the vast majority of people are following the guidelines for isolation and are doing so at a high personal financial cost, idiots like these are undermining the national effort to manage the epidemic. It is possible that their actions will lead to people losing their lives