CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Kermit.de.frog

Some positive news, looks like today's figures for deaths in Italy may be lower than yesterday's. Lombardy region which is worst affected says they have 417 deaths in the last 24 hrs which is down from 546 yesterday.

This should feed positively in to national figures. Still horrific though.

loughside

RobertKK wrote: »

Ireland is just buying more from them...PPE.

The Netherlands bought PPE from China which was defective, Ireland is buying hundreds of millions of euro worth...quality better be checked.

A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



thick as champ.

cloudatlas

holyhead wrote: »

Please outline for me how he has changed tack. I'm really curious now?

From go out and meet in groups of four to only go 2k outside your front door? Yeah?

Mervyn Skidmore

RobertKK wrote: »

It is easier to control borders if one chooses to on an island even with a shared border as we saw during the foot and mouth disease outbreak.

Where the Irish government were able to seal the border to protect the animals that were at risk.
There was nothing like this done to stop another virus.
More was done in the past to protect animals than was done to protect humans in this country in trying to stop a virus entering the country.

Sorry but I completely disagree with you. The virus was likely in this country long before the first confirmed case was reported. The reaction cannot be compared to foot and mouth also. It is much easier to control animals than humans who have significant rights. Also, animals had to be culled during the foot and mouth outbreak, imagine trying to propose that for humans.

timmy_mallet

wakka12 wrote: »

Dunno what flu stats you were looking at?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
12000-60,000 deaths in the US from flu annually. Significantly more than twice as deadly as flu going by the 100-200k death estimate form the coronavirus pandemic in the US. So between a minimum of 3x times and up to 16x times as deadly, thats with major interventions to stop the spread

Over 2 years was what Fauci said..

So based on his estimates, it may be claim less lives than the flu.

Deep Thought

Coyote wrote: »

Hi Blueshoe

I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

here is the one from yesterday

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

What’s your background? Stats? Computer modeling? AI?

By their own admission, they expected us to have hit 10,000 by Friday and we were just over 2000

holyhead

cloudatlas wrote: »

From go out and meet in groups of four to only go 2k outside your front door? Yeah?

Everywhere has gradually scaled back interaction. We are not unique in this.

Martina1991

Coyote wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/player/onnow/66546216065

HSE Covid-19 Briefing Sunday 29/3/2020

after new critral = 15K to be tested
tested 11K have appointment
4K waiting for appointment
5K a day testing
opening more

plan to have 15K per day by end of the week


they also reported they planed to have 1200 bed for critical care, I'm not sure quite what the difference from ICU beds there is if any

cameramonkey wrote: »

Why do they not release how many test have been done up to now or how many tests are being done per day. according to another poster they have run out of kits. I dont know if its true but they are not telling it as it is. 700 per day seems to be the number which is not acceptable.

Can you clarify what you keep referring to about tests "being done". Do you mean people being swabbed or tests actually performed? Because they are two different things and lots of people use the term "testing" for both.

Coyote has posted numbers from RTE today. ~5,000 tests are being carried out a day in labs across the country. Even if certain centres are running low on swabs, it will give the labs a chance to catch up with the backlog until more swabs arrive.

Talisman

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So has anybody used the free postcards that An Post delivered during the week?

Never got them. Only two items of post were received in our house last week - the yellow Covid-19 handbook and an Amazon order.

timmy_mallet

loughside wrote: »

A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



thick as champ.

Unlikey. That's not how procurement in the government works.

BluePlanet

RobertKK wrote: »

The surge in support for FG shows that if you do a really bad job and do very little to stop a virus taking hold of a country, it has political benefits.
The crisis can be used to brainwash people when they had and are doing a bad job.
It is a reward for the failure that has led us to this position.
Not enough ICU beds, medical equipment, PPE etc, but they talk well, lets forget they helped make this happen through inaction...

The same is happening in other countries, failure is being rewarded.

Let's not forget the laissez faire, neoliberal economic ideology that put us here too:

Reward hoarding private wealth and to hell with the public good.

Jim_Hodge

loughside wrote: »

A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



thick as champ.

As you seem to be the expert at this...where would you have sourced the PPE and how would you do your due diligence in a speedier manner?

Jim_Hodge

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Unlikey. That's not how procurement in the government works.

Now now! He obviously knows better.

Funkfield

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

report it?

jimmycrackcorm

RobertKK wrote: »

Excellent in making it worse than it needed to be, this has led and will lead to far more deaths that could have been avoided.

Simon Harris said it was fine for people from Northern Italy to be "out and about" in Dublin when the virus was ravaging Lombardy at the time.
No one including Irish people coming from Northern Italy were quarantined and this is where initial cases came from.

This is not good leadership in health, it is selective memory by people.
It has cost lives.

As far as I'm aware, no one in Wuhuan died because of flights from Italy.

It's a simplistic way of thinking that we could prevent CV from coming here just by stopping some flights.

The threat from CV everywhere has always been from community spread. It wouldn't have been possible for us to successfully lockdown earlier because people wouldn't have taken it as seriously until we got to a point where the numbers of cases have made it imperative.

Jinglejangle69

BluePlanet wrote: »

Let's not forget the laissez faire, neoliberal economic ideology that put us here too:

Reward hoarding private wealth and to hell with the public good.

A shortage off PPE during a global pandemic?

Who would have thought it ay.

Same as most countries.

Not enough ICU beds during a global pandemic?

They should have seen it coming ay.

Like most countries.

Oh wait most countries didn't either.

pH

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Yeah, I'd like to know this too.
What causes the downward curve in epidemics, apart from herd immunity or lack of "fuel", social distancing etc.

Or just all those things?

It's basically just the R0 (r-nought) changing over time. If it's above 1 then the disease is in theory spreading (an epidemic) it it's below 1.0 then the disease should die out just as fast.

This R0 is not just an inherent property of the biology of the disease (though obvious this does contribute) but also behaviour of people.

So the spread is measured something like:

(Base 'biological infectiousness' / Infection mitigation) * contacts with uninfected.

So we can reduce this 'R0' in 2 main ways:
- Reduce the number of contacts an infected person has with uninfected people (social distancing/lockdown etc.)

- Reduce the chance of infection when contacts occur (hand washing/masks etc.)

As this R0 decreases because of the above measure, 'new cases per day' will also decrease, and if we get it below 1.0 the numbers should plumet very quickly.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1244286796055359489?s=20

Jim_Hodge

Martina1991 wrote: »

Coyote has posted numbers from RTE today. ~5,000 tests are being carried out a day in labs across the country. Even if certain centres are running low on swabs, it will give the labs a chance to catch up with the backlog until more swabs arrive.

And our testing looks good compared to the UK struggling to do 7000 per day.

Coyote

Martina1991 wrote: »

Can you clarify what you keep referring to about tests "being done". Do you mean people being swabbed or tests actually performed? Because they are two different things and lots of people use the term "testing" for both.

Coyote has posted numbers from RTE today. ~5,000 tests are being carried out a day in labs across the country. Even if certain centres are running low on swabs, it will give the labs a chance to catch up with the backlog until more swabs arrive.

Hi Martina1991

from this link and the HSE briefing this morning
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029

The HSE disclosed that 15,500 people are waiting to be tested for Covid-19 since the Government changed the criteria for testing to people displaying two symptoms of the infection.

Among those waiting for a test 10,700 have an appointment and 4,800 are awaiting a test. There are 5,000 tests being carried out every day.

More than 33,000 people have been tested since March 16th.

being done i would count as appointment booked last week and have not gotten the results yets

I am one of them i was booked in and then canceled, I had to rering my GP on Tuesday, Friday i got a text saying i had an appointment in 3 hours and am now waiting for results

greenpilot

voluntary wrote: »

The same world where people die of hunger in Africa and we don't even get any news about them.

Eh. We do, through constant charity adverts on TV asking for donations for Trocaire etc, collection boxes etc.

Xertz

owlbethere wrote: »

Fcuking hell. I hope the batch of PPE that's due for us will be good quality.

Unfortunately that’s going to happen and keep happening. Supply chain a are pushed to their limits. Shortcuts are being taken and even in normal times this seems to happen with unscrupulous suppliers.

How many times have we seen fake certifications, including gross misuse of things like the CE approvals stamp with that “Chinese export” stamp that was designed to look so similar that consumers weren’t able to identify the difference and that China wouldn’t do anything about.

I don’t understand why this sudden trust of Chinese officialdom has suddenly happened over the last few months. They have a long history of lies, coverups, massive oppression, whistle blowers literally disappear. There have been enormous health and public safety scandals like the baby milk issue etc being a typical example.

China has great people, but at official level it’s still a paranoid, authoritarian state that manages information in much the same way as the Soviet Union did only with far better technology and coercive abilities.

The fact that Trump has completely undermined America with the endless references to “deep state” and engaging with every conspiracy theory and theorist in the book hasn’t helped over the last few years and I think you’re getting a general distrust of information in the West as a result of what’s happened with the driving of “fake news” and media manipulation.

That seems to be creating a perfect storm where you’ve people happily believing Chinese officialdom and Russia Today, because the normal channels that were trusted in the west have been completely undermined over the last decade.

Anyway, I don’t know anymore. I think “we” (and I mean the west in general) has jumped down so many social media inspires rabbit holes that I’m not sure we will get out of them again. Ireland’s not too bad as it’s a small country that still has a fairly homogenous media that balances things out a bit but the likes or the US, the U.K. and even elements of say France are off chasing shadows on Facebook groups and buying into all sorts of propaganda from various sources online.

I mean take a look at the anti vaccine thing in the US in particular but there are elements of it here too. I had a fairly sensible mother from Dublin tell me that I needed to “speak to my brother” about how he is “pumping that child full of chemicals” because he was getting her vaccinated. That’s the kind of crazy stuff that’s floating around and being taken seriously.

Unfortunately, when you have a political movement (and I’m not just talking about trump - he’s just one of many) who lie, mislead and deliberately confuse fact and fiction, then you open the door for all sorts of crazy and misleading info.

I think we are in a very strange place and having COVID-19 land when several countries, that are normally the world’s leaders on technical issues like this, off in la la land really is unprecedented.

Also the EU needs to snap out of it and get going on some strong coordinated leadership and communication. There’s been far too little action coming from Brussels. Europe normally should have the social democratic structures to cope with this better than most of the world; yet we are off in an ideological muck raking match over Eurobonds with the NL Finance Minister finger pointing at “the south”.

You couldn’t make it up. Perfect storm. Every crack is being exposed.

gormdubhgorm

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

BanditLuke wrote: »

Point our exactly how he's "risen massively"

Also lots of health care officials and governments around the world are working tirelessly btw.

I assume the poster means in comparison to other countries handling of it UK, USA. Brazil etc. There is a decisiveness. calmness and assuredness about the Dail's 'caretaker' governments approach to this.
Regardless of what political party anyone supports, we should be thankful we have people who are performing well in this crisis situation.

Debating political impact, polls and so on, is a matter for another day.

JP Liz V1

redarmy wrote: »

Six more Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland

RIP

Any day now without a death in Ireland will be a good day

Marsden35

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some positive news, looks like today's figures for deaths in Italy may be lower than yesterday's. Lombardy region which is worst affected says they have 417 deaths in the last 24 hrs which is down from 546 yesterday.

This should feed positively in to national figures. Still horrific though.

Deaths mean nowt really in terms of trends. Thousands in severe condition which means deaths will fluctuate daily.

New infections is the stat to monitor.

cloudatlas

holyhead wrote: »

Everywhere has gradually scaled back interaction. We are not unique in this.

Yes but the way it is spun is different. Ire government make changes= responding to the crisis well done.

British government make changes = ah they made a mistake before so now they are changing things.

loughside

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1244286796055359489?s=20

Ha Ha Ha.....wouldnt be too quick taking the carpet away, if it`s anything like what the Spanish and Czech governments received you`ll be dumping this chinese tat back for a return journey.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/china-delivered-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic-120032800056_1.html


https://www.nationalreview.com/news/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic/

cloudatlas

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I assume the poster means in comparison to other countries handling of it UK, USA. Brazil etc. There is a decisiveness. calmness and assuredness about the Dail's 'caretaker' governments approach to this.
Regardless of what political party anyone supports, we should be thankful we have people who are performing well in this crisis situation.

Debating political impact, polls and so on, is a matter for another day.

The defunding of healthcare is a pan political problem.

JP Liz V1

Is China the only country mass producing PPE?

Coyote

Deep Thought wrote: »

What’s your background? Stats? Computer modeling? AI?

By their own admission, they expected us to have hit 10,000 by Friday and we were just over 2000

computer science, day job is normal running a team of people looking after systems that move 100's of million euro a day/week in IT.
but right now i have been in isolation for the last two weeks so you could say i have too much time to look at covid19

regarding the 15K number, we would have hit it if we did not drop the rate of infection from 30% growth per day which we were at to 13.9 were at and dropping

Vicxas

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is China the only country mass producing PPE?

Everywhere else is shutting down, China is opening back up.

thomas 123

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

As far as I'm aware, no one in Wuhuan died because of flights from Italy.

It's a simplistic way of thinking that we could prevent CV from coming here just by stopping some flights.

The threat from CV everywhere has always been from community spread. It wouldn't have been possible for us to successfully lockdown earlier because people wouldn't have taken it as seriously until we got to a point where the numbers of cases have made it imperative.

We live on an island mate. Everything not grown here is imported.

I know you know this but the source of the virus was Wuhan? So your point is not really valid.

The government was slow to act and took no initiative early on, they could have screened flights from Italy, China etc early on but didn’t, and that includes Irish people coming back around January- February.

At the very least we should now be temperature screening at the airports and other points of entry like they did aggressively in Wuhan.

Xertz

Marsden35 wrote: »

Deaths mean nowt really in terms of trends. Thousands in severe condition which means deaths will fluctuate daily.

New infections is the stat to monitor.

There needs to be proper surveying of the general population using a representative sample to do that and it should be happening in all countries that can do that.

Even a sample of a couple of thousand would give you a very clear picture of what was going on if they were being tested weekly based on a proper selection criteria that did not involve triaging symptoms.

I assume epidemiologists are doing this?

You’d do it if you were even trying to conduct any kind of poll or marketing analysis and it’s the only way you’ll get a picture of the population.

Testing the entire population is impractical or impossible but you can do sampling using good modelling and selection and then extrapolate to an entire population.

If it’s only symptom based, you will be getting a fairly meaningless picture of what’s going on in the population.

jesus_thats_gre

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is China the only country mass producing PPE?

Read somewhere that before this crisis they were manufacturing 50% of all PPE equipment worldwide (might have been masks specifically now that I think of it).

But that they have increasing production by 300%.

Kermit.de.frog

Good news, the EU is pledging 450 mln euro to Italy and Spain Morroco to help them in their battle against Coronavirus.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N2BK71Y?__twitter_impression=true

barneyrub

Does anyone know if there is a transcript of the press statement or link to it from yesterday....... the one that was by dept of taoiseach with further clarity on the new measures?
Thanks

maninasia

Xertz wrote: »

I think we are in a very strange place and having COVID-19 land when several countries, that are normally the world’s leaders on technical issues like this, off in la la land really is unprecedented.

Also the EU needs to snap out of it and get going on some strong coordinated leadership and communication. There’s been far too little action coming from Brussels. Europe normally should have the social democratic structures to cope with this better than most of the world; yet we are off in an ideological muck raking match over Eurobonds with the NL Finance Minister finger pointing at “the south”.

You couldn’t make it up. Perfect storm. Every crack is being exposed.

The EU pushed hard to keep borders and flights open with the EU. They led to the virus spreading very rapidly out of Northern Italy..
That now they have no answer to the desperate need for PPE shows the problems in the EU in a very concrete form.


The Irish government made a huge mistake in not stopping flights from Italy earlier even though it was a known epidemic center .....Even now they allow flights to come in with no quarantine tracking of individuals. I look on from outside in disbelief.

Xertz

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Read somewhere that before this crisis they were manufacturing 50% of all PPE equipment worldwide (might have been masks specifically now that I think of it).

But that they have increasing production by 300%.

Given that the majority of global manufacturing ability has been migrated to China and elsewhere in Asia over the last few decades it’s not surprising.

A lot of PPE is basically relatively simple, bulk manufacturing of plastics and textiles. The “West” has long since given up on that kind of thing, in favour of non core stuff like software and financial services.

If anything, this should point out the folly of deindustrialisng developed economies. This stuff becomes strategic in a crisis.

Bob24

Funkfield wrote: »

report it?

Indeed. At this stage it is not only irresponsible but also illegal. So just call the guards.

igCorcaigh

Talisman wrote: »

Never got them. Only two items of post were received in our house last week - the yellow Covid-19 handbook and an Amazon order.

I'm disappointed by the postcards. They're ugly. Anyway, least of my worries.

Deep Thought

barneyrub wrote: »

Does anyone know if there is a transcript of the press statement or link to it from yesterday....... the one that was by dept of taoiseach with further clarity on the new measures?
Thanks

Hse.ie?

jimmycrackcorm

RobertKK wrote: »

The surge in support for FG shows that if you do a really bad job and do very little to stop a virus taking hold of a country, it has political benefits.
The crisis can be used to brainwash people when they had and are doing a bad job.
It is a reward for the failure that has led us to this position.
Not enough ICU beds, medical equipment, PPE etc, but they talk well, lets forget they helped make this happen through inaction...

The same is happening in other countries, failure is being rewarded.

The strength of the economy under FG over the last decade has made it possible for the government to put in place the financial package to support people out of work. The country's strong credit rating means that we will be in a better position to get out the other end.

No country has adequate ICU and other resources. This is not a "failure" any more that a failure to prepare for an earthquake.

Your point just demonstrates how deluded people were in the election believing the hype of SF about building 100k social houses, and how right FG were about saying you can't do any of that without a strong economy.

wakka12

Marsden35 wrote: »

It will be nowhere near that once the dust settles. I think South Korea is at 0.4%

South Korea is 1.5%

Duke of Url

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is China the only country mass producing PPE?

I would have thought Irema in Limerick could have handled the face masks for the HSE.

Marsden35

Xertz wrote: »

There needs to be proper surveying of the general population using a representative sample to do that and it should be happening in all countries that can do that.

Even a sample of a couple of thousand would give you a very clear picture of what was going on if they were being tested weekly based on a proper selection criteria that did not involve triaging symptoms.

I assume epidemiologists are doing this?

You’d do it if you were even trying to conduct any kind of poll or marketing analysis and it’s the only way you’ll get a picture of the population.

Testing the entire population is impractical or impossible but you can do sampling using good modelling and selection and then extrapolate to an entire population.

If it’s only symptom based, you will be getting a fairly meaningless picture of what’s going on in the population.

Well by conducting the same amount of tests every day and seeing fewer positive results, that would indicate a trend. Coupled with lower hospital admittance.

Muahahaha

The Derbyshire police are in crackdown mode. They're using drones to spot people out for a walk in the Peak District. They took their reg plate numbers and traced them back to Sheffield which is a 30 minute drive away

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241


And then there is a beauty spot called the Blue Lagoon. To stop people congregating there they went and put black dye in the water

JP Liz V1

How many hospitals in total in Dublin between public and private?

cameramonkey

voluntary wrote: »

The last week the media were saying we're going to do 15,000 tests per day from this week. This week just ends today and I'm reading only around 5,000 tests per day is being done. What happened to the additional planned 10,000?

We seem to be doing about 700 test a day average from the time the outbreak arrived in Ireland.

loughside

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good news, the EU is pledging 450 mln euro to Italy and Spain Morroco to help them in their battle against Coronavirus.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N2BK71Y?__twitter_impression=true

Morocco?? When did it become a member state?


So while we`re on the subject how much have they allocated to Spain, Italy, and of course Ireland??

youandme13

thomas 123 wrote: »

The government was slow to act and took no initiative early on, they could have screened flights from Italy, China etc early on but didn’t, and that includes Irish people coming back around January- February.

I don't know how you expect the government to screen everyone coming back from China when we don't have direct flights, most people go through the big EU hubs like Paris, Amsterdam, London etc. So should we have just screened every single person coming in to Dublin?