CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

marilynrr

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

Why can't some people accept any promising news, and instead have to get all disappointed and frantic by putting so much negative spin and speculation on any positivity.

It is getting very fcucking tiring on this thread.

Wrecks my head too!
It's like they want to be able to say they 'called it' later on if the situation seriously worsens.

RugbyLad11

Logan Roy wrote: »

How do people not get it. The testing criteria is stricter so you’d expect to see more positive test results.

The majority of people who get this virus only have mild symptoms, the testing criteria now will only catch the most serious cases

FVP3

Wibbs wrote: »

Yet I think China specifically the Chinese government are a bunch of lying corrupt face saving bastards overseeing a totalitarian Orwellian state with a low value for human life, once it's not their own or their friends in the system.

So how does that work for your China is Great defence playbook?

Well if they had a low value on human life they would have let the economy rumble on in Wuhan and taken the deaths on the chin. Chinese culture seems to have a fairly deep respect for the elderly.

I don't think I would want to necessarily live in China, by the way, but like Putin's Russia and other countries disliked by the Americans, the attacks on the country tend towards hysteria. The countries are far more popular with their people than American imperialism suggests.

My reaction to the very real propaganda that emanates from the US ( largely) and drives its population to support every war, every overthrow or every government, every bomb raid, every sanction, every "moderate rebel" headchopping a nun, is disbelief to being with. I find that tends to work out long term.

In the case of China, if the US gets its ovine population ( and its foreign cheerleaders) as riled up as they have for every war or campaign in the last two decades, it will lead to the destruction of the world. I am inclined to oppose that.

in this particular case, the virus - I can't see that China has in fact done much wrong, while Trump has done everything wrong ( except and paradoxically in fact banning the Chinese flights).

The US wants to blame its own inadequacies on a "chinese virus" and those of us outside the zone of indoctrination should be alert to the bleatings of this decaying power.

murpho999

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

The new testing criteria will effectively result in increased positive, no?

So, the number of confirmed cases, relative to the number of testing being performed, will be higher.

The confirmed percentage here up to the change in criteria was just 4% here. Whereas it was closer to 10% in the UK. The UK were testing based on a narrower criteria.

How is that logical?

They changed the criteria as there were far too many negative tests and that only wasted tests.

So with new criteria then they're increasing the likelihood of people having it and therefore positives would increase.

BanditLuke

FVP3 wrote: »

I'd take the critics of the government more seriously if they had demanded a full lock down on Feb 29th. Which they mostly didn't of course. Nobody did. In fact quite a few who were cynics at the start were castigating the government later.

Not true. Plenty on here myself included called for a full lockdown well before Feb 29th. In fact a lot of posters as far back as the end of January where scoffed at when they said this would collapse the world economy but sure at the end of the day we are all just some plebs online and the government has to make the tough decisions.

careless sherpa

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

But lots of people have the virus and they only have one symptom, so now they won't get tested......

Added to that is the phenomenon of false negatives in relation to this strain of Corona virus. Are more than likely multiples of the official number infected. Hopefully the lockdown will Mena that the further spread is limited to intra household

FVP3

owlbethere wrote: »

Believe me, I would love to take all the positives here and I do my best to focus on the positives and loads of good posters here who really push this across with so much sense and putting people at ease. I'm really trying to pick out positives a lot of the time.

Not really seeing that.

TheDoctor

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

10,700 waiting on tests

It was 40,000 a week ago I thought I read.

Seems a big drop

Jim_Hodge

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

But lots of people have the virus and they only have one symptom, so now they won't get tested......

But they are testing as many as possible and doing so with the more likely cases.

Look, don't get caught up with the number of tests. Look at the number of people so unwell they need hospital care. If the rest of us stay home, whether feeling unwell or not, then we can keep a handle on this.

JP Liz V1

Ray Donovan wrote: »

My brother was tested on March 18th at 3.30. Still no result. 11 days later!

I thought if not contacted back in 48 hours then negative, only contacted back if positive

GooglePlus

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

The new testing criteria will effectively result in increased positive, no?

So, the number of confirmed cases, relative to the number of testing being performed, will be higher.

The confirmed percentage here up to the change in criteria was just 4% here. Whereas it was closer to 10% in the UK. The UK were testing based on a narrower criteria.

There's so many reports of people waiting on a test or results, I wouldn't be hopeful that the figures are a true reflection of our current situation.

ACitizenErased

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

10,700 waiting on tests

5% positive rate here (95% tested negative) suggests only 535 cases out of them.

endainoz

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

How can it possibly be contained in sh*tholes like India and African countries? People live on top of each other, is there even any point in introducing measures?

Sounds a bit like the Trumpy line of thinking there. Should we just let them all die so?

Professor Moriarty

marilynrr wrote: »

Wrecks my head too!
It's like they want to be able to say they 'called it' later on if the situation seriously worsens.

Haters gonna hate.

Marsden35

Happy4all wrote: »

Sadly I don't think death is so selective.

Yeah I read an article about the NHS once and statistically more people died on weekends in hospitals. They still don't quite know why, but perhaps the psychological process of someone barely clinging on is they can't be arsed going through another week of it.

trapp

RiseAbove4 wrote: »

Is there any rhyme or reason as to who this virus attacks more than others?

Turkey’s former goalkeeper and their most capped player - Rustu Recher - is just 46 and in critical condition with it.

No mentions in any articles of underlying health problems and surely he’d be much fitter than most of us given his former job

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52084741

Versus Boris Johnson who is 10 years older and has never looked like the healthiest of people or someone who looks after themselves. Yet his case is so mild he’s still working from home

So what’s going on with this thing?

I’m aware there’s two strains of it. Is one more lethal than others?

Seeing a footballer in critical care at the age of just 46 years old is giving me stress to be honest

With respect at 46 years of age he's not a footballer anymore.

Who knows how many footballers live their lives after playing. Many (not saying him in particular) have addiction issues, smoking, overeating etc.

Think of Gazza.

Again not suggesting this ex player wasn't in good health but it does seem fair to say that in almost all cases, relatively young and health people recover.

TheDoctor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

5% positive rate here (95% tested negative) suggests only 535 cases out of them.

No wonder they tightened the testing. Seems everyone with a sniffle was getting tested. Wasting time and resources

murpho999

TheDoctor wrote: »

It was 40,000 a week ago I thought I read.

Seems a big drop

Yes as the hypochondriacs blocking the system with head colds had their tests cancelled.

lbj666

ACitizenErased wrote: »

5% positive rate here (95% tested negative) suggests only 535 cases out of them.

Is that %tage before or after they changed the criteria for testing, think it was before

cameramonkey

Martina1991 wrote: »

You keep saying "doing". What do you mean?!

There wasn't near the amount of tests requested to be processed when we began. Testing has ramped up to try and meet demand. Getting the average number of tests done per day is useless. It makes it seem like we're testing f*ck all.

If the number of tests done as of the 23rd March was ~18,000 and now it is at ~33,000 that implies we have processed ~15,000 tests in the last week, averaging 2,143 a day.

With the number of tests being done per day increasing all the time

Well that would be much better , where did you get the figure for 33,000? It would be an improvement but nowhere near the 5000 they are claiming per day. Have you a link to the 33,000 figure.

FVP3

BanditLuke wrote: »

Not true. Plenty on here myself included called for a full lockdown well before Feb 29th. In fact a lot of posters as far back as the end of January where scoffed at when they said this would collapse the world economy but sure at the end of the day we are all just some plebs online and the government has to make the tough decisions.

I did a search, and to be fair, you did.

blackcard

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

Warning today's numbers might be a downward blip due to the change in testing

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

Thanks for the charts, it shows the forecast of what may happen. I would just query the projected amount of deaths. The last 2 days have seen 14 and 10 deaths yet you are projecting 3 deaths per day going forward?

Ray Donovan

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

he must be over it now?

Still has a dry cough. But no temperature.

Marsden35

Just a month ago, Erdogan of Turkey claimed they had no cases and that Turkey was a "model" of how to deal with it.


They're now at nearly 10,000 cases

JP Liz V1

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

The majority of people who get this virus only have mild symptoms, the testing criteria now will only catch the most serious cases

I don't think Simon Coveney had any symptoms only was in contact with a confirmed positive carrier

Roger_007

I wish those reporters on RTE would stop saying each day that half the the people were over or younger than the average age of death. They seem to think that half the values in a range have to be above the average and half below. It means no such thing.

jarvis

Mwengwe wrote: »

You know there are some epidemiologists who've contracted it? No matter how many precautions you take you can still 'get it'.

Yeah I get that. It’s very risky but when you’re the leader of a nation and you’re going around shaking hands and speaking if herd immunity etc before the panic kicks in you look like a total fool!!!

Quantum Erasure

TheDoctor wrote: »

It was 40,000 a week ago I thought I read.

Seems a big drop

they scrapped that list and started again...

scrubs33

First of all sympathies to the families of those who have passed away. However I think these are very positive numbers and give good reason to hope the end is in sight. If the HSE are giving mid April as peak I think we’ll see a slight relaxation of restrictions the first week in May but not before the bank holiday. Schools will stay closed but I think there might be a push for primary schools to open after the June weekend. That’s what 3 weeks before they close anyway? See how things are going for those few weeks and let them off again for July and August. Movement in and out of Ireland could be restricted but I really do think things will be getting someway back to normal by mid June.

ZX7R

marilynrr wrote: »

But initially rates would go up because of household infections, after a while we should see the benefits!

It depends on how widespread the invection is in the general public before lockdown.
51%of invections were community base before lockdown, the actual spread in the community is unknown.
So if the infection rate keeps dropping by next weekend it might indicate community infection may not be as widespread as feard

WhiteMemento9

Mr.S wrote: »

Haven't we curtailed testing due to lack of equipment though, so the low % increase is to be expected.

No?

We don't know. I have no idea why they can't release along with the number of cases how many tests that figure is calculated from. There is no data protection stuff preventing this and yet we never get that number until someone decides to at random point, fill us in a cumlative number to date. It leads to wild speculation over reasons for the numbers being up or down which could be avoided.

josip

Updating the graph for ICU bed projections with today's 88 number.
As has been mentioned, they said 88 is the number currently in ICU beds as opposed to admissions which they'd be stating on previous days.
I'm going to keep using the previous numbers since we don't any other numbers to use.
The graphs now better represent that which we are interested in, the current ICU bed usage, although they don't include non-Covid occupants.




These graphs are estimates based on the percentage increases over previous days and are dependent on multiple external factors that can't be modeled so should be considered as guesswork.

cameramonkey

murpho999 wrote: »

Last week the labs were processing 2000 a day, and it was to increase to 4,000 per day quickly and ultimately 15,000 a day.

have you a link to that?

Ten of Swords

cameramonkey wrote: »

Why dont they publish the exact amount that have been tested and the amount of test that have been processed to date? This would give us an idea of the if the amount per day has increased significantly. I don't see why if they have nothing to hide that they don't do this.

Northern Ireland put out a surveillance report every day, even at the weekend

https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/sites/default/files/2020-03/COVID-19%20Surveillance%20Bulletin%2029.03.20.pdf

pjohnson

blackcard wrote: »

Thanks for the charts, it shows the forecast of what may happen. I would just query the projected amount of deaths. The last 2 days have seen 14 and 10 deaths yet you are projecting 3 deaths per day going forward?

Nursing home deaths caused yesterdays spike.

JP Liz V1

CityWest Hotel and Conference Centre in Dublin will be an isolation centre and step down care centre, likely more hotels around the country will be the same

Coyote

blackcard wrote: »

Thanks for the charts, it shows the forecast of what may happen. I would just query the projected amount of deaths. The last 2 days have seen 14 and 10 deaths yet you are projecting 3 deaths per day going forward?

Hi Blackcard

l the number is in the top left, i picked 1% as it's about where S.Korea is at with high testing, it might be as high as 3% time will tell
numbers from Italy and Spain are distorted as they can't test everyone. I up date with the daily numbers in Bold each day.
it could be higher but it's very hard to tell as the start of an outbrake

Regards

Coyote

wakka12

https://meaww.com/china-wet-markets-coronavirus-wuhan-covid-19-bats-reopens
Reports of wet markets reopening in China

FullOf..IT

Dana Mealy Tyrant wrote: »

Several of the test centres closed without notice today because they ran out of kits. This will impact reported new cases in a few days. We cannot look at new case numbers as indicative of anything when testing is chopping and changing criteria, or suddenly put on hold. If testing criteria and capacity isn't consistent, then patterns in the cases reported are not meaningful.

Source???

blackcard

pjohnson wrote: »

Nursing home deaths caused yesterdays spike.

Fair enough but there was another 10 deaths today and supposedly clusters in a number of nursing homes

jesus_thats_gre

owlbethere wrote: »

On the other hand, we see what's happening in mainland Europe and beyond. What makes you think Ireland is going to be so special. So many people here are holding tight, hoping and praying that this doesn't explode. We're all hoping to see some sort of light at the end of the tunnel.

It is sort of being actively discussed here.

You could argue that the more optimistic (or less pessimistic) among us are desperately looking for hope in data - numbers that we might look back on as being worthless.

But, right now, the data is probably all that we can go on. And right now, there appear to be some reasons to be optimistic. Particuiarly relative to other countries.

It is possible for Ireland to be more like South Korea / Japan if we get this response right. We don't have to be like UK / USA. I specifically referred to the UK and US as their situations are still very much developing but there is mounting evidence to suggest that they entirely botched their response.

murpho999

cameramonkey wrote: »

have you a link to that?

You know I just google these things but here you go from The Irish Times.

Martina1991

cameramonkey wrote: »

Why dont they publish the exact amount that have been tested and the amount of test that have been processed to date? This would give us an idea of the if the amount per day has increased significantly. I don't see why if they have nothing to hide that they don't do this.

Because it is a continuous service that is running 24/7.
Some labs might get through 300 samples a day one day and 400 the next depending on staff levels, number of tests coming in, reagents available etc. It's not a fixed throughput, and more labs may be coming on stream or offering a limited service until all their staff are trained to run it.

cameramonkey wrote: »

Well that would be much better , where did you get the figure for 33,000? It would be an improvement but nowhere near the 5000 they are claiming per day. Have you a link to the 33,000 figure.

I got it from Coyote:

Coyote wrote: »

from Irish Times

he HSE disclosed that 15,500 people are waiting to be tested for Covid-19 since the Government changed the criteria for testing to people displaying two symptoms of the infection.

Among those waiting for a test 10,700 have an appointment and 4,800 are awaiting a test. There are 5,000 tests being carried out every day.

More than 33,000 people have been tested since March 16th.

The HSE has 46 testing centres in operation and a further six will come on stream next week. Up to 60,000 testing kits have been delivered and a further 100,000 will be delivered each week.

wakka12

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-minister-commits-suicide-after-virus-crisis-worries
German finance minister commits suicide over worries of coronavirus impact on national economy

pjohnson

blackcard wrote: »

Fair enough but there was another 10 deaths today and supposedly clusters in a number of nursing homes

Average age today is 77 and 6 east 3 northwest (where would that be? Donegal I guess would Connacht not just be west?) And 1 south.

Some of those east are probably more nursing home residents again. Possibly a younger person aswell to reduce the average.

iguana

murpho999 wrote: »

Yes as the hypochondriacs blocking the system with head colds had their tests cancelled.

Everyone without a confirmed close contact or underlying illness had their test cancelled regardless of symptoms.

cameramonkey

FullOf..IT wrote: »

Source???

They said Cork had run out of kits at the HSE press conference today. There are reports on twitter and boards.ie of other centers having no kits.

shinzon

https://kclr96fm.com/covid19-virus-to-peak-here-in-mid-april/

The spread of the Covid19 in Ireland is to peak in mid-April, according to Dr Sarah Doyle, consultant in Public Health Medicine with the HSE.
Dr Sarah Doyle gave the information during a virtual press conference earlier, along with a number of senior HSE team members.

A peak would come and go, she said, and Ireland would continue to have a high number of people availing of services once that peak has passed. The peak would occur between April 10 and 14.

Shin

smallfryy

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

How can it possibly be contained in sh*tholes like India and African countries? People live on top of each other, is there even any point in introducing measures?

Ah FFS cop onto yourself.

''****holes like India and African countries''.
I bet your only experience of the world is what you've seen on those exploitative Concern ads.

And yes there absolutely is a point in introducing measures to reduce the spread of this virus. Get out of your ma's boxroom and learn something.

wakka12

2 further passengers on the cruise ship in Panama have died, total 4 now. 130 other passengers are suspected, and showing flu like symptoms.