CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

rob316

jamesf85 wrote: »

The Spanish economy won't last another 2 months of complete lockdown. Not only will their health servicefail, but the ar*e will fall out of their entire economy.

Same for airlines, none of them will be in business if this continues for 2 more months

Tourism is like 20% of Spain's GDP, they are in severe trouble, Italy and France aren't far behind on dependence of tourism.

Peruvian Flake

Peruvian Flake wrote: »

What is coming, for Ireland? In your opinion.

Realistically, more infections, more serious illness, more deaths, each of which will be a tragedy.

Also realistically, much less such tragedy if people cut out avoidable person to person contact and behave properly.

crossman47

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I just hope our leaders don't undermine their great work, with poor decision making!

Well so far they've done everything they've been asked to do by the medical experts. I think you're being unfair to politicians who have stepped up to the plate under enormous pressure. To be honest, i didn't think they had it in them. Remember the bags they made of the cervical check issue by offering repeat tests to all.

blade1

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

It's that time again. Paddy cosgrave uses twitter to say something. People call him a pr!ck.

Go nuts. I find the consistency across threads and days comforting.

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1243150282999189504?s=20

As his vainglorious tweets go that one is to be complimented and the stuff is here.

Snow Garden

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-spread-from-china-now-china-doesnt-want-the-world-spreading-it-back/2020/03/04/22a2ff7e-5dc8-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html

There are about 200,000 Chinese from Wenzhou and Qingtian living in Italy, most working in the restaurant business, the Zhejiang Daily reported this week.

That's a lot of Chinese working in Italy. I also know there are many Chinese owned factories in Northern Italy making leather goods with cheap Chinese labour. They make them there in order to get the 'Made in Italy' tag.

ednwireland

yourdeadwright wrote: »

I do wonder was the number of 15000 ever realistic or was it a number the government knew we wouldn't hit and thus make them look like there doing good but more importantly make the public not go into panic mode as "we are below where we should be "

Or on the other hand has closing schools and social distaining could be just worked wonders ,

that figure as far as i know was derived from a 30% infection rate.

there was an academic paper by the imperial college covid 19 response team which goes through lots of scenarios that came out on 16th march
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482

scary reading if you have notheing else to do

Red for Danger

Peruvian Flake wrote: »

What is coming, for Ireland? In your opinion.

About 3/4 that of italy if Italy get hammered for a month of misery we get about 3 wks

10000maniacs

josip wrote: »

I found this graphic from the BBC (originally John Hopkins Uni) interesting.

It's amazing how the Netherlands have gone from nothing to a serious situation in less than a month. That could be any country who's citizens act like idiots.
8 weeks self isolation is the only cure to avoid a very serious situation.

owlbethere

https://www.mpg.de/14610776/immune-boost-corona-virus


This looks very promising and hopefully it will work. Scientists in Germany are looking at the BCG vaccine. Originally its for TB. Studies on mice show it can protect against viral infections of the respiratory tract.

Fingers crossed it works. Although the BCG is not a vaccine against covid19, hopefully it will bridge a gap until a vaccine is available.

Talisman

ecoli3136 wrote: »

I would also agree that there is reason to be optimistic regarding the extent to which transmission has been slowed. I though the most positive indication was that contact tracing for new cases is showing that contacts per case is way down in the single digits.


Test results however seem pretty meaningless at the moment. You simply have to assume there is a high multiple of the confirmed positive cases are out there.


That's not the issue though. The figure I would be most concerned about is how many are hospitalised and how many require ICU care. I think the next 10 days to 2 weeks will tell a lot. Now is the time to double down on restricting person to person contact. It does work to slow the spread.

The number of positive cases in Ireland doubled in the last 4 days - The nightmare scenario was a doubling in 3 days.

Yesterday's figures said in total 305 (~20%) had been hospitalised, 39 in ICU (~2.5%).

Tallaght hospital is reported to be relocating paediatric services to Crumlin and Blanchardstown in order to facilitate accommodating more adults suffering from Covid-19.

Red for Danger

Wibbs wrote: »

Nope. Utter sky is falling down hysterical nonsense. Japan and Taiwan and closer to home Germany have not become Italy, Spain or France. There are many factors involved. Ireland has a few advantages. We have one of the lowest population densities in the western world. The majority live in one family dwellings rather than in very population dense vertical housing. That's a huge difference alone. Where are the real hotspots in other countries? Densely populated urban centres with lots of people mixing(compare London to the rest of the UK as an example) We're also low in numbers needing hospitalisation and low in those numbers when the partial lockdown was started. Will those numbers climb? Of course, but to suggest we're looking down the barrel of a Madrid, Lombardy, New York, London et al is hysteria at this stage.

I be back to this post in about 10 days
I haven't read much of the tread but you've been fairly far off the mark so far.

the.red.baron

Lavinia wrote: »

I presume re immunity its going to be same as any other flu. you do not get immune to any flu if you had it, maybe get slightly more resistant but it means nothing if your immune system gets low you can get it again no probs

me personally never got any vaccine either for anything

no immune system no immunity


that's a given

FVP3

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I never took much notice of that number anyway... they never gave indication of what they were basing it off.

We probably are slightly below where we could/should be at this moment in time. But I am more inclined to say this is down to the excellent doctors, nurses and army of support staff we have in this country... rather than the government measures, which have been a bit underwhelming tbh.
!

Really? Closing down most offices and pubs and restaurants is hardly underwhelming.

I had to go into work on Tuesday to pick up something I needed to bring home and there was literally not one other person on the Dart carriage in Pearse at 9AM. Cycling through Dublin yesterday afternoon a friend took a picture of a city that looked like a scene from 28 days later.

Thats a huge response, in fact a total lockdown would do very little more. What else to do, lock people in unless they have dogs to walk?

Stopping one person from infecting 2 or 3, but instead infecting slightly less than 1, is enough to stop the virus spread, and kill it off.

Nevertheless if the daily increase in deaths start to increase in a week, we should do more.

caveat emptor

Nice story about cuban doctors in Italy
https://twitter.com/Ruptly/status/1242436754692608011?s=20

dougm1970

Hurrache wrote: »

Following on from yesterday, paying to promote this tweet rather than just doing it for the sake of goodness and let it be shared naturally, he wants everyone to know.
[url]

https://twitter.com/WebSummit/status/1243100308076728320?s=19[/url]

Maybe the character he's shown the last few weeks has made me over cynical.

are they the 'proper 12' ones mcgregor got in ?

Snow Garden

Red for Danger wrote: »

I be back to this post in about 10 days
I haven't read much of the tread but you've been fairly far off the mark so far.

I think Wibbs has been one of the most coherent posters to be fair. He was entirely correct on the stupidity and selfishness of the crowded panic buying which thankfully seems to have abated.

kyote00

BCG vaccine was widely used in Ireland in the 70s/80s in schools, IIRC

owlbethere wrote: »

https://www.mpg.de/14610776/immune-boost-corona-virus


This looks very promising and hopefully it will work. Scientists in Germany are looking at the BCG vaccine. Originally its for TB. Studies on mice show it can protect against viral infections of the respiratory tract.

Fingers crossed it works. Although the BCG is not a vaccine against covid19, hopefully it will bridge a gap until a vaccine is available.

eddie73

FVP3 wrote: »

Really? Closing down most offices and pubs and restaurants is hardly underwhelming.

I had to go into work on Tuesday to pick up something I needed to bring home and there was literally not one other person on the Dart carriage in Pearse at 9AM. Cycling through Dublin yesterday afternoon a friend took a picture of a city that looked like a scene from 28 days later.

Thats a huge response, in fact a total lockdown would do very little more. What else to do, lock people in unless they have dogs to walk?

Stopping one person from infecting 2 or 3, but instead infecting slightly less than 1, is enough to stop the virus spread, and kill it off.

Nevertheless if the daily increase in deaths start to increase in a week, we should do more.

Unfortunately this is not how it works, but it is something to aspire to nonetheless. All we can do is reset the virus clock back to day one, from which it is free to spread once again. A vaccine is the only solution to this, or more effective treatment that is widely available, which is impractical given the scale of the pandemic.

Resetting the pandemic clock to day one buys us time, but it is never business as usual again, as we will see in the coming months in china. They will be fighting an ongoing battle against outbreaks, quarantines, tracing the infected, lockdowns, business closures etc until the vaccine arrives.

EDit

kyote00 wrote: »

BCG vaccine was widely used in Ireland in the 70s/80s in schools, IIRC

And the UK. I had the “stapler” test, but must have had immunity already as I didn’t need the big needle (and missed out on the big lumpy scar so many people of my generation have)

Beasty

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Boards version of exponential growth. As a matter of interest what topic holds the record for most threads/posts on this site? The 2008 financial collapse must be there or thereabouts.

I've just had a scan at thread view count across various forums

The largest I can find is 5.8 million in the daily weather forecast thread, over getting on for 12 years though

AH has had 10 threads at over 1 million

Soccer has had around 7 or 8, with a couple over the 2 million barrier

In Current Affairs we inherited the current Gangland Shooting thread which stands at 4.5m

8 of the 10 Coronavirus megathreads have had more than a million views!!

nacho libre

Red for Danger wrote: »

I be back to this post in about 10 days
I haven't read much of the tread but you've been fairly far off the mark so far.

I suspect you won't. He was right, you are posting hysterical nonsense which has no basis in fact. It's a stressful enough time for many people without you adding fuel to the fire with unsubstantiated rubbish

Red for Danger

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think Wibbs has been one of the most coherent posters to be fair. He was entirely correct on the stupidity and selfishness of the crowded panic buying which thankfully seems to have abated.

How relevant is panic buying discussion in the face of whats coming.
It more an online thing in that the discussion/memes jokes about the thing was bigger than the thing itself

DOCARCH

Beasty wrote: »

I've just had a scan at thread view count across various forums

The largest I can find is 5.8 million in the daily weather forecast thread, over getting on for 12 years though

You'll never beat the Weather Forum! Just don't allow chat in the threads, that's the key! :pac:

Red for Danger

nacho libre wrote: »

I suspect you won't. He was right, you are posting hysterical nonsense which has no basis in fact. It's a stressful enough time for many people without you adding fuel to the fire with unsubstantiated rubbish

You don't have to read the thread
Should i leave so you can read on and comfort yourself

Im talking about the future and whats gonna happen nobody has any facts

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

crossman47 wrote: »

Well so far they've done everything they've been asked to do by the medical experts. I think you're being unfair to politicians who have stepped up to the plate under enormous pressure. To be honest, i didn't think they had it in them. Remember the bags they made of the cervical check issue by offering repeat tests to all.

I don't think I am...

I think they've had the sense to get out of their own way, basically, and take the advice of people more knowledgeable than them.

But they have still made quite a few mistakes so far, and could make a few more... if we're lucky they won't be big costly ones!

We're not through this thing by a long shot. If they do manage to get the country through it and out the other end in reasonable shape... I will have no problem giving them the praise they deserve. But my scepticism about their abilities is very well placed.

branie2

I hope you are all healthy and safe

JP Liz V1

The news on about mortuaries already

FVP3

Wibbs wrote: »

Nope. Utter sky is falling down hysterical nonsense. Japan and Taiwan and closer to home Germany have not become Italy, Spain or France. There are many factors involved. Ireland has a few advantages. We have one of the lowest population densities in the western world. The majority live in one family dwellings rather than in very population dense vertical housing. That's a huge difference alone. Where are the real hotspots in other countries? Densely populated urban centres with lots of people mixing(compare London to the rest of the UK as an example) We're also low in numbers needing hospitalisation and low in those numbers when the partial lockdown was started. Will those numbers climb? Of course, but to suggest we're looking down the barrel of a Madrid, Lombardy, New York, London et al is hysteria at this stage.

Italy and Spain are in fact beginning to beat the exponential curve too.

You are totally correct on the fact that the deaths and hospitalizations here are not all that scary, so far.

kowloon

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Not sure if this has been posted yet - Covid Globe, it's fed live data from worldometers.

https://www.covidvisualizer.com/

That reminds me of UFO: Enemy Unknown, should I be sending teams to virus hit areas?