CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Cork Boy 53

Naggdefy wrote: »

I remember as word spread throughout May 1986 the fear at the time. I was 10. Countries like Sweden were beginning to show a raise in radioactive material in milk there, then Britain and finally us.

Today Tonight told us while radioactive traces were in our grass from rain it was safe to drink milk I can't recall the East Coast been told to stay indoors but just a lot of fear initially which subsided by late May.

It wasn`t too bad for Ireland then. Sure we weren`t even told that we needed iodine tablets.:rolleyes:

Boggles

An appeal has been launched in the Czech Republic to "save" the equivalent of 1,305,552 pints of craft beer that will go off "within weeks" if it is not drunk

Things just got real serious in the Czech Republic.

MipMap

kyote00 wrote: »

BCG vaccine was widely used in Ireland in the 70s/80s in schools, IIRC

I got this when I was a kid. Still got 3 small dots on my arm.

Tacitus Kilgore

shocksy wrote: »

There is a huge majority of them that are disgusting anyway.

I seen 8 or 9 of them yesterday all huddled up at lunchtime, laughing, joking, hugging and play fighting. Absolute fools, showing complete disregard to social distancing.

First bit - nice. :rolleyes:



What difference does it make bollixing at lunchtime when you're like sardines on site for 8 hours a day, and crammed into a van on the way in and home?

Scaffolding is 3foot wide - how are you supposed to even pass by a lad and observe social distancing?

All the big sites being open is a disaster, now they'll start closing one by one and make an even bigger economic mess than if they all just shut at once.

Naggdefy

I feel for Leaving Certs.

99% sure it will go. But they need clarity. I'd find it impossible to focus on studying, trying to filter out all that's going on in the background.

Kunkka

I just can't believe it's just been two weeks since the schools closed. It feels like months...

We are going to remember this the rest of our lives.

Thelonious Monk

whiskeyman wrote: »

Same.
I just walked to the shop at lunchtime, but far more cars out on the road.
The Government must be aware of ultimately how we behave, which is why they know they can't enforce a 'lockdown'.

We're not in a lockdown anyway - just a range of various measures needed to slow the spread of the virus.

Yeah it's just weird that every other country seems to have army with guns on the streets and empty city centres, i dont get why we are an outlier.

is_that_so

Kunkka wrote: »

I just can't believe it's just been two weeks since the schools closed. It feels like months...

We are going to remember this the rest of our lives.

Leo's speech was 11 days ago.

Spook_ie

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

When the lunatic 'Herd Immunity' tactic was dreamed up, as a way to hurry the pandemic along to keep the money men happy, the science behind the idea was very thin on the ground.
(Snipped)
They changed tack and are now trying to minimize the death rate, but the damage has already been done... by Cheltenham, Crufts, football matches, concerts etc.

Are we still allowing the Brits entry without checks at the border ?

Are we asking them to isolate or quarantine ?

If not, we are effectively engaging in the same nasty underhand 'Herd Immunity' by stealth.

To be fair, the Brits weren't the ones travelling from Ireland to Cheltenham or Premiership matches, so perhaps that blame should lay on Irish shoulders.

Duke of Url

6 more deaths in Wales.

Boggles

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah it's just weird that every other country seems to have army with guns on the streets and empty city centres, i dont get why we are an outlier.

Because we haven't had to convert ice rinks into morgues.

Be happy we don't have them on the streets, it means we are in trouble if they are.

Naggdefy

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah it's just weird that every other country seems to have army with guns on the streets and empty city centres, i dont get why we are an outlier.

They're too busy recording Ultimate Special Forces Hell Week:D

Rob A. Bank

Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 26 March 2020



Blue = China, Orange = Rest of the world

I remember a time when we thought the Chinese numbers were bad.

Looks like uncontrolled exponential growth in the rest of the world now.

:-(

Larger version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

shesty

Varadkar said in some speech or another that we don't rule with arms in this country - which we don't....and they intend to keep it that way.
Look, whether it's "right" or "wrong" ( and really, what is these days) I don't know,but I can see the logic of where he is coming from.

Hurrache

whiskeyman wrote: »

Same.
I just walked to the shop at lunchtime, but far more cars out on the road.
The Government must be aware of ultimately how we behave, which is why they know they can't enforce a 'lockdown'.

We're not in a lockdown anyway - just a range of various measures needed to slow the spread of the virus.

The streets of the city have been relatively empty since Paddy's day, definitely not far more cars on the road.

kingshankly

is_that_so wrote: »

Leo's speech was 11 days ago.

Was two weeks ago today

tikkahunter

Back from a test in Croke Park , absolute clockwork and ran with minimal fuss .

cloudatlas

shocksy wrote: »

Exactly my point. It is far too late for the UK now. What's about to come their way can't be stopped now. However, if we close our borders from them we at least have some hope, otherwise we're importing all these cases that are going to explode in the coming days.

Community spread is already occuring in Ireland. The WHO said that concentrating on stopping flights is not important at this stage, not that there are many flights if at all. The first case of coronavirus in Northern Ireland came from the Republic. Looks like they should have closed the border to the South.

Snow Garden

Red for Danger wrote: »

How relevant is panic buying discussion in the face of whats coming.
It more an online thing in that the discussion/memes jokes about the thing was bigger than the thing itself

Because the panic buying was exactly what the virus needed to spread exponentially. Crowded shops with frantic people falling over each other to grab and paw food - senseless idiocy. For absolutely no reason too, the shelves are still fully stocked. It also scared old people who are the most vulnerable. We will never know how much transmission was done during the panic days around the ides of March. Wibbs and a few others here did their best to warn people of the futility and danger.

Rob A. Bank

AllGunsBlazing wrote: »

It looks like the exodus of people fleeing the north of Italy has now begun a second wave of infections in the south.

Very worrying... The health infrastructure in the south of Italy is poor, compared to the North. Another disaster in the making.

is_that_so

kingshankly wrote: »

Was two weeks ago today

You mean the first one? I'm talking about the big one to the nation.

Duke of Url

tikkahunter wrote: »

Back from a test in Croke Park , absolute clockwork and ran with minimal fuss .

What symptoms are you suffering?

Xertz

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah it's just weird that every other country seems to have army with guns on the streets and empty city centres, i dont get why we are an outlier.

Honestly, despite all of our moaning about ourselves and navel gazing about 'only in Ireland' we are actually a very socially cohesive country and never relied on a presence of heavy handed policing or anything like that to keep order.

We tend to just be rather capable of being cooperative and getting on with things without much fuss and there isn't a big scary government trying to sit on stuff.

I'm not saying there's no element of scumbags - of course we do, but compared to a lot of places, it's not a case of Robocop style policing keeping a lid on what would otherwise melt into chaos. You certainly get the sense that a lot o US and even some continental cities are far more like that.

Our normally poor planning and lack of dependence on public transport may also be playing some role in this too. Other than a few narrow tight spots in the bigger cities, we have relatively low density housing and a lot of garden space and so on, which is probably keeping us able to self isolate a lot more easily than most, particularly when you compare to to say Spain or Italy where apartment living is normal and communal spaces are used a lot more than here.

I mean if you think about it, most of us do actually live in suburban houses, not apartments and most of us can actually self isolate quite easily in those. There's self contained space, green space and so on to use. Also, while the average size of new build apartments here is too small, the average size of dwelling overall is quite large by EU standards.

Even if you've a small back garden here, it's going to keep you sanely able to isolate yourself a bit and keep the kids entertained.

Snow Garden

tikkahunter wrote: »

Back from a test in Croke Park , absolute clockwork and ran with minimal fuss .

Did they use Hawkeye? Ta or Nil?

AllGunsBlazing

tikkahunter wrote: »

Back from a test in Croke Park , absolute clockwork and ran with minimal fuss .

How long before a result?

Hoping it's a negative for you as well.

cloudatlas

shocksy wrote: »

Regardless of restrictions in place, we are continuing to allow flights into Ireland from Hotspots, the UK being the main one. Until a stop is put to imported cases we will continue to have more confirmed cases. Its scandalous that we still have open borders with the UK which will be an absolute cluster**** in a couple of weeks. The government truly f*cked up there because they were weak and always have been, and hopefully when things improve they will be held accountable for their f*ck up.

First case in Northern Ireland came via Dublin. 'Chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said the adult had travelled from northern Italy via Dublin'.

kingshankly

is_that_so wrote: »

You mean the first one? I'm talking about the big one to the nation.

That’s when schools closed

FVP3

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah it's just weird that every other country seems to have army with guns on the streets and empty city centres, i dont get why we are an outlier.

The city centre is pretty empty.

pawdee

shocksy wrote: »

There is a huge majority of them that are disgusting anyway.

I seen 8 or 9 of them yesterday all huddled up at lunchtime, laughing, joking, hugging and play fighting. Absolute fools, showing complete disregard to social distancing.

How was their grammar and diction? Any observations you could share?

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1243179742087569408?s=20

Cork Boy 53

Naggdefy wrote: »

I think a real problem in 2 weeks by the Easter Weekend will be lockdown fatigue. If that corresponds with 16-20C weather it will be hard to keep people at home.

If you haven`t done so already take a look at M.T.`s forecast thread in the Weather forums and you will see that he is predicting something along those lines for the Easter weekend.

Cee-Jay-Cee

jamesf85 wrote: »

The Spanish economy won't last another 2 months of complete lockdown. Not only will their health servicefail, but the ar*e will fall out of their entire economy.

Same for airlines, none of them will be in business if this continues for 2 more months

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

caveat emptor

Spook_ie wrote: »

To be fair, the Brits weren't the ones travelling from Ireland to Cheltenham or Premiership matches, so perhaps that blame should lay on Irish shoulders.

classic "Field of Dreams" defence. if you build it they will come. :pac:

Snow Garden

Duke of Url wrote: »

What symptoms are you suffering?

He has a match program rolled up in his hand and he is frothing and screaming profanities at the ref. Your average Tipp fan really.

Cee-Jay-Cee

10000maniacs wrote: »

Darwinism coming to the fore again.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/doctor-warns-innocent-people-will-die-coronavirus-challenge__trashed-12450472/

It should actually be encouraged as there are too many stupid people on the planet, the more we get rid of the better.

Rob A. Bank

Spook_ie wrote: »

To be fair, the Brits weren't the ones travelling from Ireland to Cheltenham or Premiership matches, so perhaps that blame should lay on Irish shoulders.

That is all water under the bridge at this stage. I am referring to what we can do now to minimize future spread.

We need to stop the spread at the border from a developing hotspot... otherwise all our social isolation, distancing etc. is just window dressing.

yourdeadwright

cloudatlas wrote: »

First case in Northern Ireland came via Dublin. 'Chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said the adult had travelled from northern Italy via Dublin'.[/QUOT

We have know this for weeks ? A women and she got a taxi from airport to Connelly then a train to Belfast ,

Jurgen Klopp

Lads what are the figures that are being used again.

What percentage of an entire population is expected to get infected?

Of the infected number is it 80% are expected with little to mild symptoms?

Then what is percentage of infected that needs hospital/ICU and deaths?

Was just trying to number crunch given out pop of 4,983,943

Naggdefy

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

If you haven`t done so already take a look at M.T.`s forecast thread in the Weather forums and you will see that he is predicting something along those lines for the Easter weekend.

I have looked at. Being a fortnight away though any little pattern change could bring different weather.

billybonkers

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Airlines run on extremely small margins and no that's just not how it works or can ever work. Most don't even own their aircraft the lease them and have to continue to do so, they leases warehouse space, fuel storage etc they are highly leveraged and don't have many assets they can sell to prop them up. They are kept going by the bookings being made daily and right now there are none...

shocksy

cloudatlas wrote: »

not that there are many flights if at all.

I suggest you take a look at live departures on the dublin airport website and you will see that there are still many flights operating. Most notably the UK.

Also, closing off the north and south border would be impossible so making that point is irrelevant. But if it could have been done it would have been good because the UK will undo all our good work due to their ridiculous herd immunity approach in the early days.

Xertz

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Actually on that the more flexible ones like Ryanair may ultimately bounce back because they simply have no commitment to anything and will drop staff and suppliers without much difficulty. The larger, high cost airlines may ultimately end up needing to be renationalised.

Also there are very few "national airlines" anymore in Europe. They're almost all privatised.

I could certainly see a lot of state aid being pumped into them again and EU rules being drastically relaxed on allowing that to happen.

Ficheall

Not voicing opinion on whether the border with NI should be closed, but the "Well actually, NI's first case came from Dublin" argument doesn't really work, because had the border been closed, she wouldn't have been able to go via Dublin, so..

FVP3

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Many have liquidity problems though, cash flow. If something is done there, it would be helpful.

Cork Boy 53

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

As far as we are concerned the ESRI predicted that the Irish economy`s GDP will fall by at least 7% in a best case scenario this year.

FVP3

Snow Garden wrote: »

He has a match program rolled up in his hand and he is frothing and screaming profanities at the ref. Your average Tipp fan really.

I know little of nothing about the GAA except watching the odd munster and All Ireland final, but isn't that more like a Kilkenny fan?

Thelonious Monk

I would imagine a lot of the smaller airlines will go bust, and a lot of the routes to smaller regional places will no longer be viable. Aer Lingus, BA etc will all be fine as it will be in the governments interest to keep them going, at least the major routes anyway.
But we may be saying goodbye to flights to your holiday home in the arsehole of Bulgaria for a while.

Xertz

The riskiest businesses are often high volume, low margin ones. Anything that disrupts their volume of sales can destroy them in a very short time as they just become insolvent, particularly if they've a large fixed overhead to maintain - leases on premises etc.

I would suspect the "high street" brands will be wiped out. We could be coming back to a completely different retail landscape, with huge dominance of online. Effectively this could accelerate the trends that were happening anyway and cause a huge cull of physical retail.

Businesses like cafes, restaurants, bars, all of those kinds of things may ultimately just pick up quite rapidly once things are safe and money starts to flow again, but I could definitely see the big high street retailers disappearing and possibly never coming back in the same way again due to technological change and this having just pushed the whole thing forward by about 10 to 15 years.

I think you're going to find companies with strong online presence will also survive. So you could be saying goodbye to a lot of well known physical brands.

murpho999

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Had to cycle to work to get some things, just now. There are people all over the streets in Dublin city centre. Groups of junkie types drinking in the sun and loads of pedestrians. Doesnt feel like a lockdown at all.

That's because it's not a lockdown.

Dublin still very empty when compared to normal.

If we are looking at attempting to delay the virus in order to stop ICU capacity being overloaded its quite possible there will be an on/off series of school/third level closures, not to mention continuance of social distancing etc out to the autumn of 2021. The trigger for renewed measures will be pressure on the ICU's. It seems more often than not these measures will be needed. The articles are US/GB projections. These measures might go on till a vaccine is (maybe) found, antiviral drugs can be found mitigate symptoms in the meantime etc.

For example, the Imperial College model projected that 510,000 people would die in two years in Great Britain without action. But the death toll would fall to 39,000 if the social distancing measures restarted every time the patient count in ICUs hit 400, or could shrink to 8,700 deaths if the trigger were 60 ICU patients.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf