CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

stephenjmcd

shocksy wrote: »

I suggest you take a look at live departures on the dublin airport website and you will see that there are still many flights operating. Most notably the UK.

Also, closing off the north and south border would be impossible so making that point is irrelevant. But if it could have been done it would have been good because the UK will undo all our good work due to their ridiculous herd immunity approach in the early days.

The flights are near empty though, bus services to the airport basically stop today. That shows you where the demand is at and how many people are coming through the airport

Strazdas

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Lads what are the figures that are being used again.

What percentage of an entire population is expected to get infected?

Of the infected number is it 80% are expected with little to mild symptoms?

Then what is percentage of infected that needs hospital/ICU and deaths?

Was just trying to number crunch given out pop of 4,983,943

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

iwillyeah1234

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England..


https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

walking your dog , MILES away from anyone else, is deemed "non essential" by this branch of the British police force.

is_that_so

Liz Canavan, Assistant Secretary for Social Policy at the Department of the Taoiseach on construction sites.

Ms Canavan said the construction industry had been given 48 hours to comply with social distancing guidelines. She said each building site had to have a designated person to ensure compliance with social distancing.

Xertz

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

Rapid test kits for both active virus and antibodies are very likely to emerge quickly. They're already in existence just they need to upscale the manufacturing to get them out to people.

It should be possible to test someone for antibodies with a simple dot of blood on a test kit, much like some of those home diagnostic kits for doing your blood sugars. They already exist for things like antibodies for lots of other things.

token56

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

I think this is based on testing that has been carried out in Iceland who are essentially trying to test their entire population. But I think the number was closer to 50%.

iwillyeah1234

Deleted User wrote: »

If we are looking at attempting to delay the virus in order to stop ICU capacity being overloaded its quite possible there will be an on/off series of school/third level closures, not to mention continuance of social distancing etc out to the autumn of 2021. The trigger for renewed measures will be pressure on the ICU's. It seems more often than not these measures will be needed. The articles are US/GB projections. These measures might go on till a vaccine is (maybe) found, antiviral drugs can be found mitigate symptoms in the meantime etc.



https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

Xertz

token56 wrote: »

I think this is based on testing that has been carried out in Iceland who are essentially trying to test their entire population. But I think the number was closer to 50%.

Iceland's actually a really good place to trial testing like this btw because it's an island with a relatively small and genetically similar population. It's significantly smaller than say County Cork in terms of pop. So, you can work a lot of stuff out with just 1 hospital and lab facilities.

I was reading a paper yesterday that was also showing that they've seen very significant mutation of the virus into something like 40 distinct variations. Whether that means it will change in terms of how it interacts with people remains to be seen, but as an RNA virus effectively has no spell check system so it makes errors very rapidly as it copies itself.

One factor could be that as we socially distance / remove people from active circulation who are presenting symptoms, that strains that present few or no symptoms may become more dominant. That could be good if it means they just don't cause issues, or bad if it means hidden spread that subsequently blows up into dangerous symptoms later on.

You're looking at an organism that copies / reproduces generationally so quickly that it's evolving in real time. Virus life cycles are very, very short compared to more complex organisms so evolution is very rapid.

is_that_so

RTE School initiative from Monday 30th.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0320/1124339-rte-to-launch-school-on-tv-teaching-initiative/

jamesf85

Red for Danger wrote: »

How relevant is panic buying discussion in the face of whats coming.
It more an online thing in that the discussion/memes jokes about the thing was bigger than the thing itself

In the face of whats coming? It's going to be an absolute disaster, but you're talking like 500,000 are going to die.

There's a very large portion of the population that won't even know they've been in contact with the virus. Of the 20-30% that do develop symptoms, 10-20% of those will be severe, with around 1-3% of those being critical.

We need to spread these out, what we don't need is people assuming we will be another Italy.

big syke

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Some have used reserves for share buy backs as well as other costs that do not affect if they fly or not. Insurance costs, hedging fuel costs, have paid PDPs for aircraft deliverers and have commitments for more with penalties for backing out. Boeing and Airbus have already built the planes so they need this cash....

They also have high value contracts with suppliers again that cant be dropped.

Aircraft also need to go through periodic maintenance that cost huge money regardless of how often the places are used.

The business does not sit dormant. There will be huge casualties in this sector.

DOCARCH

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England.

Not sure why the confusion? UK message/instruction is stay at home!

is_that_so

Xertz wrote: »

Rapid test kits for both active virus and antibodies are very likely to emerge quickly. They're already in existence just they need to upscale the manufacturing to get them out to people.

It should be possible to test someone for antibodies with a simple dot of blood on a test kit, much like some of those home diagnostic kits for doing your blood sugars. They already exist for things like antibodies for lots of other things.

Not sure if any of them are ready or accurate enough yet. The quick tests the Spanish got are apparently 30% accurate.

FVP3

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England..


https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

walking your dog , MILES away from anyone else, is deemed "non essential" by this branch of the British police force.

They really need to worry about a lot more than that. The English police have dumbed down recently.

splinter65

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

You keep hoping and hoping for this for some reason....it’s getting a bit odd now

iwillyeah1234

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

I'm not sure its accurate to state that we should 'ignore' what the Chinese etc. have done. They are still in a suppression phase. What happens if/when they relax measures, there's another surge resulting in pressure on their ICU capacity? They will have to reintroduce measures again.

Xertz

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure if any of them are ready or accurate enough yet. The quick tests the Spanish got are apparently 30% accurate.

They'll get more accurate as it develops though.

iwillyeah1234

Xertz wrote: »

Iceland's actually a really good place to trial testing like this btw because it's an island with a relatively small and genetically similar population. It's significantly smaller than say County Cork in terms of pop. So, you can work a lot of stuff out with just 1 hospital and lab facilities.

I was reading a paper yesterday that was also showing that they've seen very significant mutation of the virus into something like 40 distinct variations. Whether that means it will change in terms of how it interacts with people remains to be seen, but as an RNA virus effectively has no spell check system so it makes errors very rapidly as it copies itself.

One factor could be that as we socially distance / remove people from active circulation who are presenting symptoms, that strains that present few or no symptoms may become more dominant. That could be good if it means they just don't cause issues, or bad if it means hidden spread.

You're looking at an organism that copies / reproduces generationally so quickly that it's evolving in real time. Virus life cycles are very, very short compared to more complex organisms so evolution is very rapid.

Corresponds with the stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Iceland has 2,160 cases per million. Quite high , relative to the rest of the world.

Blueshoe

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk.

Zuckerberg is some chancer. The IRS are suing him (Facebook)for 9 billion

is_that_so

splinter65 wrote: »

You keep hoping and hoping for this for some reason....it’s getting a bit odd now

I believe the poster lives there. Strikes me more as anxiety.

Xertz

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Corresponds with the stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Iceland has 2,160 cases per million. Quite high , relative to the rest of the world.

The difference though is they have done so much testing they're aware of how many they have.

Also, it's worth bearing in mind that Iceland is effectively just one isolated city. Way over 90% of the population lives in Reykjavik.

givyjoe

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Walking around without gloves doesn't matter in the slightest. Hand hygiene is much more important. It's been said time and time again the potential is there for gloves to be much more dangerous. Frequent hand washing much more effective.

Our testing isn't really a joke either, far too many people were being referred on for testing who weren't going to have covid. Testing criteria now makes it far more likely we can find people who are positive.

Regardless of the testing the main thing is, any symptoms you and those in the house self isolate. That's the most effective thing regardless of test result. Now if your in a bad way of course call the emergency services but self isolation is key to stopping this spread

That simply isn't true. 50% of confirmed cases in Iceland were asymptomatic. It will never be under control if we dont find those people.

is_that_so

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk

Posted this on the last thread but unlikely to be days as claimed in the piece.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-finger-prick-test-antibodies-available-in-days-2517825

fritzelly

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk

Antibodies

grogi

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

It tests for antibodies, not for the virus itself.

CaoinDory

Is there an end in sight?

I've been avoiding news channels sonim not sure. Are other countries free from it and back on track?

iwillyeah1234

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not sure why the confusion? UK message/instruction is stay at home!

no it's not.


The rules currently are

1. Shop for basic essentials infrequently
2. ONE form of exercise per day
3. Medical need or to provide help or care for a vulnerable person
4. Travelling to and from work, where this is absolutely necessary


"ONE form of exercise per day" can easily be interpreted as "take the dog for a walk"

wakka12

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Corresponds with the stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Iceland has 2,160 cases per million. Quite high , relative to the rest of the world.

Iceland intends to test it's entire population

Cee-Jay-Cee

Gods Gift wrote: »

George Lee is a bit of a doomsday merchant.

Every time I hear him I get depressed.

That's nothing new, he had the same effect on people long before anyone ever heard of corona virus or C-19.

cnocbui

This Biden advertisement seems to work on the principle of giving him enough rope and he will hang himself.
https://twitter.com/chrislongview/status/1242969490721210368

is_that_so

Xertz wrote: »

They'll get more accurate as it develops though.

Sure, as they said last night they are keeping an eye on this evolving technology but for now they are sticking with what they are using.

ceegee

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk.

Zuckerberg is some chancer. The IRS are suing him (Facebook)for 9 billion

Test for antibodies. You can see if the person has built up immunity

Strazdas

Xertz wrote: »

Rapid test kits for both active virus and antibodies are very likely to emerge quickly. They're already in existence just they need to upscale the manufacturing to get them out to people.

It should be possible to test someone for antibodies with a simple dot of blood on a test kit, much like some of those home diagnostic kits for doing your blood sugars. They already exist for things like antibodies for lots of other things.

Once this crisis has passed, it may become essential to discover just how many Irish people actually had Covid at some point. Presumably you wouldn't need a vaccine if you had already acquired the virus.

Mervyn Skidmore

wakka12 wrote: »

Iceland intends to test it's entire population

I wonder how they can enforce that legally? Say if someone doesn't want to be tested but they have no problem self isolating.

iwillyeah1234

splinter65 wrote: »

You keep hoping and hoping for this for some reason....it’s getting a bit odd now

three days in a row of packed London tube trains during a pandemic isn't "hope" - it's staring us right in the face.

Quantum Erasure

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not sure why the confusion? UK message/instruction is stay at home!

You can still go out for one walk / run a day...

ShyMets

CaoinDory wrote: »

Is there an end in sight?

I've been avoiding news channels sonim not sure. Are other countries free from it and back on track?

Right now at best, its the end of the beginning. This still has while to run

caveat emptor

jamesf85 wrote: »

In the face of whats coming? It's going to be an absolute disaster, but you're talking like 500,000 are going to die.

There's a very large portion of the population that won't even know they've been in contact with the virus. Of the 20-30% that do develop symptoms, 10-20% of those will be severe, with around 1-3% of those been critical.

We need to spread these out, what we don't need is people assuming we will be another Italy.

Not to put a dampener on it. More data is being made available.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1241591569385390080?s=20

cnocbui

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I wonder how they can enforce that legally? Say if someone doesn't want to be tested but they have no problem self isolating.

They will probably just put up lists everywhere of the names of the recalcitrants and a suggestion to avoid.

iwillyeah1234

cnocbui wrote: »

This Biden advertisement seems to work on the principle of giving him enough rope and he will hang himself.
https://twitter.com/chrislongview/status/1242969490721210368

i think you're onto something there. Joe has been noticeably very quiet recently.

Give enough rope, indeed.

Cork Boy 53

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I wonder how they can enforce that legally? Say if someone doesn't want to be tested but they have no problem self isolating.

As we have seen in this country emergency powers can be implemented quickly.

iwillyeah1234

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

three days in a row of packed London tube trains during a pandemic isn't "hope" - it's staring us right in the face.

The tubes in London are not packed. Traffic is down close to 95% according to Khan, and there are a lot of photos from days ago that are being presented as happening yesterday / today. It’s fake news. London is very quiet

cloudatlas

shocksy wrote: »

I suggest you take a look at live departures on the dublin airport website and you will see that there are still many flights operating. Most notably the UK.

Also, closing off the north and south border would be impossible so making that point is irrelevant. But if it could have been done it would have been good because the UK will undo all our good work due to their ridiculous herd immunity approach in the early days.

There is no good work to be undone the virus hasn't peaked here yet, also most people are going from Ireland to UK not vice versa.

You are complaining about spread but it was Dublin airport not the UK that allowed a spreader to go through that transport hub and has enabled community spread in the North not someone coming from the UK.

The WHO have long since said that there is no point in stopping flights now the damage has been done already.

Irish people should be more focused on domestic measures being taken and not on what is happening in the UK. Yes they mentioned herd immunity but other countries didn't mention the phrase 'herd immunity' but were essentially carrying out Herd Immunity by not locking down. The measures in the Republic at the moment are less restrictive than the U.K.

U.K have closed places of worship, Ireland has allowed them to remain open.
U.K. says only socialise with people you live with. Ireland socialise with people you don't live with as long as there are no more than 4 of ye.

wakka12

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk.

Zuckerberg is some chancer. The IRS are suing him (Facebook)for 9 billion

When you contract a virus you develop antibodies to fight it off, they remain in your body to fight the infecton if it returns. If you take a blood sample that shows those antibodies are present in your body it proves you had the virus

Mervyn Skidmore

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

As we have seen in this country emergency powers can be implemented quickly.

I wonder about this. There will always be people out there who will not want their DNA to be shared with any government agency. Criminals for one.

tobefrank321

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes I did....

Flight schedules have already been drastically reduced.

I'd be pretty confident that the vast majority of people taking flights these days are for essential purposes.

16 Aer Lingus flights from London to Dublin tomorrow. Check yourself if you don't believe me.

I'd love to believe everyone on them is an essential traveller.

However we found out with the Italian flights that tourists continued to flock here for a break or Italians flew here to stay with friends in Dublin when Italian infections started to take off.

DOCARCH

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

You can still go out for one walk / run a day...

Yes, but driving a distance, to the hills/mountains for walk/run could hardly be considered essential? Plus higher risk of involving the emergency services in your venture!

Going out for a walk/run in the vicinity of your home would be reasonable.

Wibbs

Gods Gift wrote: »

George Lee is a bit of a doomsday merchant.

Every time I hear him I get depressed.

I can't abide the sound of what passes for a human voice outa him. Even if he was telling me I'd won the euromillions. His voice grates. Forget waterboarding, I'd instantly fold under questioning if that wheezy old guff peddler was asking the questions.

FVP3

Blueshoe wrote: »

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

antibodies.

Hector Savage