What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Elemonator

Elemonator wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

I wouldn't say so. The Chinese economy isn't predicted to surpass the USA until the 2030's. It's a global phenomenon. Militarily, there isn't a country that could hold a candle to the USA, even without NATO. They are the only country that truly has the logistics for global military intervention.

The US is heading towards civil war,if they keep up partisan politics surronding this virus


I know,if someone belonging to me died because some dipsh1t politian decided to take chances to piss people off over politics....noway i would let it lie

Edgware

I know a couple of "ladies" who work from home but they say it has never been so quiet

The One Doctor

Edgware wrote: »

I know a couple of "ladies" who work from home but they say it has never been so quiet

Maybe ask for a two for one?

TuringBot47

Deleted User wrote: »

The US is heading towards civil war,if they keep up partisan politics surronding this virus

That sort of hysteria would be met with a slap to the face in older times.
I'm too lazy to link it to the Airplane movie clip where a load of them lined up to slap a hysterical woman in the face.

There's a percentage of people who are overwhelmed with fear and anxiety and projecting it out to society in general that we'll all revert to animals and attack everything. That anarchy will reign.

It won't.

Yurt2

TuringBot47 wrote: »

That sort of hysteria would be met with a slap to the face in older times.
I'm too lazy to link it to the Airplane movie clip where a load of them lined up to slap a hysterical woman in the face.

There's a percentage of people who are overwhelmed with fear and anxiety and projecting it out to society in general that we'll all revert to animals and attack everything. That anarchy will reign.

It won't.

It's a message board. Speculation is permitted. You've engaged in it in the above post as well, so deal with it.

TuringBot47

Yurt! wrote: »

It's a message board. Speculation is permitted. You've engaged in it in the above post as well, so deal with it.

I have, in a positive way.

TuringBot47

TuringBot47 wrote: »

That sort of hysteria would be met with a slap to the face in older times.
I'm too lazy to link it to the Airplane movie clip where a load of them lined up to slap a hysterical woman in the face.

There's a percentage of people who are overwhelmed with fear and anxiety and projecting it out to society in general that we'll all revert to animals and attack everything. That anarchy will reign.

It won't.

Hmm....i dont think its hysteria tbh

Ive pointed out,how id react in such a scenario....

if your happy enough to let your relatives die for partisan issues,your welcome to do.so....i suspect yous are in a minority mind

diggerdigger

With the amount of money printing going on, I wouldn't be surprised if global central banks over egged it and we hit a sustained period of high inflation in a bounce back aftermath.

If the "event" is sustained for more than 2 quarters, then I'd speculate we'd blow structural holes in the global economy.

Sleeper12

Summer2020 wrote:

Nobody has a clue. Anyone who says they know is lying.

I know but I'm not telling

Yurt2

TuringBot47 wrote: »

I have, in a positive way.

The poster's speculation wasn't an unreasonable one; it was grounded in the state of affairs of the US and the severity of the problem facing the country.


There's no requirement to be positive or negative

Yurt2

diggerdigger wrote: »

With the amount of money printing going on, I wouldn't be surprised if global central banks over egged it and we hit a sustained period of high inflation in a bounce back aftermath.

If the "event" is sustained for more than 2 quarters, then I'd speculate we'd blow structural holes in the global economy.

It's an extremely difficult balancing act they have to perform. You'd wonder what central banks have modeled such an event, very few you'd think.

mariaalice

_Brian wrote: »

People said after 9/11 and even the 08 financial meltdown that things would be different. But they drifted back to the old system.
This will be little different.

The technology is different now though and it was already a trend this just accelerated it.

Montage of Feck

Like 28 days later, but hopefully without zombies.

Dorakman

Montage of Feck wrote: »

Like 28 days later, but hopefully without zombies.

There are zombies already that feast on change for a hostel.

xzanti

Edgware wrote: »

I know a couple of "ladies" who work from home but they say it has never been so quiet

Would you go buying Avon in this current climate?

Fred Cryton

Big bounce back in second half of year.

There are still around 2 million in work, presumably earning the same amount in March as in February.

By taking these measures, the government has essentially forced those 2 million workers to save cash like they've never saved before. Within 3-4 months, there will be an absolute tsunami of cash ready to be unleashed into the economy. Think of the number of people dining out, in pubs and taking holidays/hotel breaks later in the year.

This is very different to '08. I still think there's a chance the Irish economy will have overall positive growth in 2020, such will be the comeback in spending in Q3 and Q4.

jimmyrustle

Deleted User wrote: »

Id be suprised if it didnt sink at least one of the banks tbh and needing another bailout,

Here's something I've never quite understood.

What happens when someone owes a debt to a dead bank?

In the last crisis, I assume seeing if AIB et al had been allowed to die, people who took out mortgages during the boom would owe their payments to whoever AIB borrowed that money off.

But what about people in 2008 who had taken a mortgage in the early 90's, back when, I assume, things hadn't went mad and banks were using funds that belonged to them to loan out for mortgages? Would they have had the debt wiped, as they owed it to nobody?

My mate had a similar welcome twist of fate some years ago when a drug dealer he owed 300 euro to for coke had his head blown off :pac: If the creditor ceases to exist surely the debt dies?

jimmyrustle

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Big bounce back in second half of year.

There are still around 2 million in work, presumably earning the same amount in March as in February.

There are 2 million people working in total when the economy is good.

This morning that has been slashed to only a select few in food retail, healthcare, deliveries.

Anyone outside of these sectors who can't work from home is now unemployed. Some wil get this 70 percent income top up, a lot, like myself, will not. Which doesn't seem very fair.

I agree though, there is a lot of shopping and drinking to be done in a few weeks.

One thing I do wonder is whether we will see the permanent raising of the price of a pint/ a takeaway etc in order to recoup the losses they have been experiencing by and large since before paddy's day.

Palmach

jimmyrustle wrote: »

Here's something I've never quite understood.

What happens when someone owes a debt to a dead bank?

In the last crisis, I assume seeing if AIB et al had been allowed to die, people who took out mortgages during the boom would owe their payments to whoever AIB borrowed that money off.

But what about people in 2008 who had taken a mortgage in the early 90's, back when, I assume, things hadn't went mad and banks were using funds that belonged to them to loan out for mortgages? Would they have had the debt wiped, as they owed it to nobody?

My mate had a similar welcome twist of fate some years ago when a drug dealer he owed 300 euro to for coke had his head blown off :pac: If the creditor ceases to exist surely the debt dies?

The liquidator would come looking for the debts if a bank went bust. Usually when banks are failing they sell off assets which includes monies owed and the buyers usually other banks would persue these debts.

McGiver

MadYaker wrote:

I think the government are going to give us all a wad of cash each to get it started again.

You think?

Irish public debt is 110% as % of GNI. Heavily indebted. Go to any higher and a crash worse than the FF one is imminent.

jimmyrustle

Palmach wrote: »

The liquidator would come looking for the debts if a bank went bust. Usually when banks are failing they sell off assets which includes monies owed and the buyers usually other banks would persue these debts.

So.....instead of bailing out the banks, shouldn't the state have bought these assets/ debts at a knock down rate and set up new semi state banks? Use some of the income from mortgage repayments to run the banks, use any leftovers for state programmes like social and affordable housing? Or use their power to reduce the monthly repayments for people who foolishly took out too large of a loan between circa 2005 to 2007?

Or would this be too sensible and cost effective for an Irish government to consider?

jimmyrustle

jimmyrustle wrote: »

Here's something I've never quite understood.

What happens when someone owes a debt to a dead bank?

In the last crisis, I assume seeing if AIB et al had been allowed to die, people who took out mortgages during the boom would owe their payments to whoever AIB borrowed that money off.

But what about people in 2008 who had taken a mortgage in the early 90's, back when, I assume, things hadn't went mad and banks were using funds that belonged to them to loan out for mortgages? Would they have had the debt wiped, as they owed it to nobody?

My mate had a similar welcome twist of fate some years ago when a drug dealer he owed 300 euro to for coke had his head blown off :pac: If the creditor ceases to exist surely the debt dies?

This is how it should work in theory,but in reality this isnt allowed to happen as states gaurantee bad debts for banks in name of liberialism

J_1980

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/covid-19-finances-we-can-afford-it-but-doubts-would-begin-to-emerge-after-six-months-990153.html


15bn deficit for a minimum in 2020, and the missing income tax receipts will only really hit in 2021.
Hopefully that shuts up the more dole/ free gaffs PBP/SF brigade for the next 5years. It’ll all be about kickstarting/growing the economy again.

J_1980

jimmyrustle wrote: »

So.....instead of bailing out the banks, shouldn't the state have bought these assets/ debts at a knock down rate and set up new semi state banks? Use some of the income from mortgage repayments to run the banks, use any leftovers for state programmes like social and affordable housing? Or use their power to reduce the monthly repayments for people who foolishly took out too large of a loan between circa 2005 to 2007?

Or would this be too sensible and cost effective for an Irish government to consider?

Theoretically yes, but the state wasn’t exactly awash with cash at that time....

Overspending in good times always carries a terrible price. Luckily Ireland dodged that bullet this time (at least to some degree).

Palmach

jimmyrustle wrote: »

So.....instead of bailing out the banks, shouldn't the state have bought these assets/ debts at a knock down rate and set up new semi state banks? Use some of the income from mortgage repayments to run the banks, use any leftovers for state programmes like social and affordable housing? Or use their power to reduce the monthly repayments for people who foolishly took out too large of a loan between circa 2005 to 2007?

Or would this be too sensible and cost effective for an Irish government to consider?

The problem was the debts the bank owned especially to senior bond holders. They would have to pay them and the state didn't have the money. Most of these are purchased on the London market and English law applies so Senior Bondholders are to be treated the same as depositors. Burn the bondholders you must burn the depositors. No government is going to give every individual and business account in BOI and AIB a substantial haircut. There'd be war.

Palmach

J_1980 wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/covid-19-finances-we-can-afford-it-but-doubts-would-begin-to-emerge-after-six-months-990153.html


15bn deficit for a minimum in 2020, and the missing income tax receipts will only really hit in 2021.
Hopefully that shuts up the more dole/ free gaffs PBP/SF brigade for the next 5years. It’ll all be about kickstarting/growing the economy again.

The loony left are toast politically. Awol throughout this crisis.

jimmyrustle

J_1980 wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/covid-19-finances-we-can-afford-it-but-doubts-would-begin-to-emerge-after-six-months-990153.html


15bn deficit for a minimum in 2020, and the missing income tax receipts will only really hit in 2021.
Hopefully that shuts up the more dole/ free gaffs PBP/SF brigade for the next 5years. .

This is hardly a good thing.

You may loathe the likes of Margaret Cash, but giving her a council house takes her out of the private subsidised rental market.

Remove social tenants from private rental = more affordable rental for the rest of us.

And there has barely been a brick laid on an affordable purchase scheme after 6 years of talking about them. There are few if any new developments within Dublin on sale for less than 340k.

The state simply has to find away to keep meeting its social and affordable housing targets despite this disaster or we are all screwed.

jimmyrustle

Edgware wrote: »

I know a couple of "ladies" who work from home but they say it has never been so quiet

A bizarre quirk of Irish law is that prostitution is not illegal, but paying for it, or running an establishment that could be regarded as a brothel, or loitering on the street attempting to sell it, are all illegal.

There was an American activist wan on a few days ago saying they should be entitled to the covid19 dole. I wonder do any of them declare tax?

J_1980

jimmyrustle wrote: »

This is hardly a good thing.

You may loathe the likes of Margaret Cash, but giving her a council house takes her out of the private subsidised rental market.

Remove social tenants from private rental = more affordable rental for the rest of us.

And there has barely been a brick laid on an affordable purchase scheme after 6 years of talking about them. There are few if any new developments within Dublin on sale for less than 340k.

The state simply has to find away to keep meeting its social and affordable housing targets despite this disaster or we are all screwed.

It’s called lowering the living standards. Ms Cash can also live in Donegal.
There are 3.5bn Asian people who study harder, work harder and give away less for social welfare (and are hence cheaper for companies to employ) than people in Europe.

It’s a global competition: compete or become irrelevant. I prefer an early wake up call to sleepwalking into disaster. Money printing and QE can only do so much. At some point serious decisions need to be taken.

jimmyrustle

J_1980 wrote: »

It’s called lowering the living standards. Ms Cash can also live in Donegal.
.

Maybe she should.

But what is your suggestion for the people who stack the shelves of Dublin Tescos? The lad who drives the forklift at Aldi?

These people are paid the living wage at best. That is 27k per year. Where in Dublin are they to live? Or do you believe all these jobs should be done by Moldovans living 10 to a house?

Social housing was built for the working class, it's bad enough that large swathes of houses in Crumlin, Kimmage, Cabra are now re purposed for hipsters.

And while Cash is a traveller, why should some town in Leitrim become a ghetto for unemployable neer do wells from Dublin under your plan?

Ireland, but Dublin in particular, needs social and affordable housing. And preference for it should be given to the Irish lower income earner, not to Margaret Cash and her ilk.


On the flip side, Donegal needs relatively little social housing. I haven't looked in a while but in large swathes of the BMW region a single earner on as low as 20k would qualify for a mortgage on a 3 bed house in many towns.