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What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

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    #602
    Roger_007
    Registered Users Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    LeYouth wrote: »
    What will tye economy look like in six months time?

    Banjaxed!

    You don’t have to wait six months. It’s banjaxed already.


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    #603
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Has anyone moved their pension into cash or safer funds in advance of the economic depression?


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    #604
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Has anyone moved their pension into cash or safer funds in advance of the economic depression?
    My working assumption is that DC pension contributions are a dead loss anyway and hence have never topped them up.


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    #605
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    PommieBast wrote: »
    My working assumption is that DC pension contributions are a dead loss anyway and hence have never topped them up.

    Why do you think that?


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    #606
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Why do you think that?
    One look at the supposed growth figures within the pension fund marketing documents.


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    #607
    gnf_ireland
    Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭gnf_ireland


    PommieBast wrote: »
    One look at the supposed growth figures within the pension fund marketing documents.

    I think the problem with pensions is people expect miracles from them. Lots of people put in 3% and are matched by 3% by their employer, and believe this should sustain themselves in retirement. Add into this people only start them 10-15 years into their working life, and its a disaster.

    The harsh reality is most people work for 40 years and live about 20 years post retirement. If you start paying into your pension the day you start work, you are basically saying every 2 years work will pay for a year in retirement. Lets say you can live in retirement on 50% of your annual income, that means you would need to be paying in around 25% per annum. The growth in the funds basically covers the difference between your lower income at the start of your career and hopefully a higher income towards the end of it, and if you are lucky pays for some sort of lump sum payment also.

    There is a huge gap between the 6% most people pay and the 25% most people need to be paying to fund their retirement. And then people look at their statements and despair (rightly!!) about what the future holds


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    #608
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,281 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    PommieBast wrote: »
    My working assumption is that DC pension contributions are a dead loss anyway and hence have never topped them up.

    I don't think you're wrong. the worldwide money printing (QE) program thats going to be needed to jump start the economy and cause inflation after this might very well pended most peoples pensions not invested in floating assets as completely worthless.


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    #609
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,407 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Has anyone moved their pension into cash or safer funds in advance of the economic depression?

    Nah left all alone. I'm in my mid 30s so hopefully things will rise again and this will be but a memory


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    #610
    ESH01
    Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭ESH01


    Summer2020 wrote: »
    Nobody has a clue. Anyone who says they know is lying.

    That's right lad!


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    #611
    huddlejonny
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭huddlejonny


    TuringBot47 wrote: »
    That sort of hysteria would be met with a slap to the face in older times.
    I'm too lazy to link it to the Airplane movie clip where a load of them lined up to slap a hysterical woman in the face.

    There's a percentage of people who are overwhelmed with fear and anxiety and projecting it out to society in general that we'll all revert to animals and attack everything. That anarchy will reign.

    It won't.

    Hmmm, suspiciously sounds like my wife in the overwhelming percentage there....


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    #612
    huddlejonny
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭huddlejonny


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Has anyone moved their pension into cash or safer funds in advance of the economic depression?

    Litecoin, shifted everything into that 3 weeks ago... it's up and down but a good store for money right now....


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    #613
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    I don't think you're wrong. the worldwide money printing (QE) program thats going to be needed to jump start the economy and cause inflation after this might very well pended most peoples pensions not invested in floating assets as completely worthless.
    At least with my current pension provider things like Guilts already had a negative yield six months ago. I decided to put my allocation into the second most risky tech stock basket they offered, which ironically is the sort of thing most likely to gain from firing up of the printing presses.


    The most risky investment basket they had was dominated with the likes of Tencent, but I wanted to avoid mainland Chinese companies...


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    #614
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,319 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    huddlejonny wrote:
    Litecoin, shifted everything into that 3 weeks ago... it's up and down but a good store for money right now....


    You must like taking risks, I'm not convinced crypotos are there yet, they haven't been significantly tested yet in a crisis, I think it could go either way, I'd spread the load, if it was possible, as they just seem like another commodity, and a game that's just filled with sharks. Best of luck with it though, you could be right


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    #615
    gnf_ireland
    Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭gnf_ireland


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Has anyone moved their pension into cash or safer funds in advance of the economic depression?

    The problem with this type of strategy is its very difficult to time the markets. The peak was in early-mid February this year after an extended bull run lasting just over a decade. If I was 'trying' to time the market, I would have said the start of a correction in September 2018 was a time to sell - and would have been proven wrong. S&P500 is now back to the levels of a year ago, so its not that bad. It took a serious dip in mid-March however.

    I am in my early 40's, so the guts of 20 years off retirement. I am likely to see at least 2 if not 3 more of these events in the stock market before I retire, and will only try and do something in advance of the final one. I have given up trying to time the stock market a long time ago.

    The one thing to remember is the market is priced based on what people think will happen in the future - not what is happening now. Future movements are risk are priced into it, so unless you can tell whats going to happen then - its a pretty tough job. And I fully accept the use of the words think and future, as no one knows about either !


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    #616
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    LeYouth wrote: »
    What will tye economy look like in six months time?

    Banjaxed!

    The more I read, the more I realise that the global economy, and subsequently the Irish economy, will take years to recover from this virus. Several years. It will be a brutal recession. At first I thought some sectors might be immune but now I think even the 'safer' sectors (Medical Devices, Pharma, IT, Food&Beverage) will take a major hit too.


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    #617
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    The more I read, the more I realise that the global economy, and subsequently the Irish economy, will take years to recover from this virus. Several years. It will be a brutal recession. At first I thought some sectors might be immune but now I think even the 'safer' sectors (Medical Devices, Pharma, IT, Food&Beverage) will take a major hit too.

    In all honestly I expect tourism, the pub and restaurant and aviation sectors to take the hardest hit's more so than anything else, these will take a very long time to recover from and only really once a vaccine has been developed. Most other stuff is likely to be down across the board in the short term though other's might be able to recover much quicker.


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    #618
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Infini wrote: »
    In all honestly I expect tourism, the pub and restaurant and aviation sectors to take the hardest hit's more so than anything else, these will take a very long time to recover from and only really once a vaccine has been developed. Most other stuff is likely to be down across the board in the short term though other's might be able to recover much quicker.

    Bewleys on Grafton Street gone now too according to R.T.E.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0506/1136899-bewleys-grafton-street/


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    #619
    The_Honeybadger
    Registered Users Posts: 4,175 ✭✭✭The_Honeybadger


    Infini wrote: »
    In all honestly I expect tourism, the pub and restaurant and aviation sectors to take the hardest hit's more so than anything else, these will take a very long time to recover from and only really once a vaccine has been developed. Most other stuff is likely to be down across the board in the short term though other's might be able to recover much quicker.

    Yes very difficult to see how these businesses are going to be profitable for the foreseeable future.

    Personal services like dentistry, optical, hair and beauty are also facing a really difficult adjustment and we me may see significant price increases in an effort to rebalance margins. Between the cost of PPE, additional cleaning and hygiene protocols etc it’s a long road back for many sectors.


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    #620
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Bank of England saying the u.k. is entering a deep recession.


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    #621
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,478 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    Bank of England saying the u.k. is entering a deep recession.

    And Brexit yet to fully hit the economy


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    #622
    Glebee
    Registered Users Posts: 6,636 ✭✭✭Glebee


    This might be a silly question but someone might be able to comment.
    Can we take it that there will more than likely be a worldwide recession?
    If recession is the new normal everywhere what does that mean?


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    #623
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Glebee wrote: »
    This might be a silly question but someone might be able to comment.
    Can we take it that there will more than likely be a worldwide recession?
    If recession is the new normal everywhere what does that mean?

    Can we take it that there will more than likely be a worldwide recession? Yes, 100% guaranteed

    If recession is the new normal everywhere what does that mean? New normal means nothing in terms of economics but we are entering a very dramatic recession or more accurately, a long drawn out depression. A depression is deeper and longer-lasting than a recession, characterised by an extended period of high unemployment and low levels of economic activity (e.g. Great Depression of 1930s where US GDP fell by 33%).

    Ireland is very much dependent on the global economy so it might take a few years before we return to 2019 GDP levels.

    Just one example or perspective, we got 11,000,000 tourists in 2019. I doubt we'll even get 20% of that in 2020.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0506/1136889-phil-hogan-covid-19/

    Apologies but I dont think I answered your 'what does that mean?' part....
    It will mean high unemployment rates and lots of families falling into real poverty. It will stretch the welfare system to it's limits.
    Many businesses will not open after lockdown and others will struggle to stay solvent. People will default on loans and mortgages.
    It will mean the government will need to borrow very heavily. The borrowing rates are good now but that may change and our national debt is very large
    after very heavy borrowing in 2008-2014. The workforce will eventually be saddled with higher taxes in order to reduce borrowing levels.
    I think it will also lead to a significant increase in crime.
    .


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    #624
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Glebee wrote: »
    This might be a silly question but someone might be able to comment.
    Can we take it that there will more than likely be a worldwide recession?
    If recession is the new normal everywhere what does that mean?

    All a recession means is two quarters in a row with no economic growth.

    This recession is going to be a nasty one along with no growth there is going to be big decline in economic activity.


    The economy generates money.


    Money pays for Everything for most people we are going to see a very depressing drop in the standard of living felt hardest by those who finds themselves out of a job.

    It can take some time to come knocking at your door if you are working for example and your job limps on for two or three years you will find it very difficult to get another job and if you do the money will likely be very bad.

    The real pain happens when the headlines are forgotten.


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    #625
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,319 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    All a recession means is two quarters in a row with no economic growth.

    This recession is going to be a nasty one along with no growth there is going to be big decline in economic activity.


    The economy generates money.


    Money pays for Everything for most people we are going to see a very depressing drop in the standard of living felt hardest by those who finds themselves out of a job.

    It can take some time to come knocking at your door if you are working for example and your job limps on for two or three years you will find it very difficult to get another job and if you do the money will likely be very bad.

    The real pain happens when the headlines are forgotten.

    financial institutions create money, the activities of our economies creates the velocity of that money to move around, the velocity of money has virtually collapsed


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    #626
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    How high can those still in jobs be taxed ?
    The rate of USC for over 70K will have to be increased significantly from 8%?
    Is it right that a certain ethnic section of our society get welfare from cradle to grave and uncapped childrens allowance?


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    #627
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    financial institutions create money, the activities of our economies creates the velocity of that money to move around, the velocity of money has virtually collapsed

    You know what I meant,;)


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    #628
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,319 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    How high can those still in jobs be taxed ?
    The rate of over 70K will have to be increased significantly from 8%?
    Is it right that a certain ethnic section of our society get welfare from cradle to grave and uncapped childrens allowance?

    with interest rates at record low levels, some negative, theres effectively no need to raise taxes to pay for the increase in loans being needed, provided these loans are used for productive means, in order to stimulate economic growth, these loans can be rolled over for very long periods of time, and the principle can be paid back as the economy recovers, baring in mind, negative rates means the full principle is not needed to be paid back, just the majority of it.


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    #629
    mr_fegelien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭mr_fegelien


    Not to go off topic but I've was planning on looking for a job this summer at a shop. Just a minimum wage one seeing as I've never worked before. Is it going to be possible? When will shops open


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    #630
    accensi0n
    Registered Users Posts: 2,766 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    mr_fegelien wrote: »
    Not to go off topic but I've was planning on looking for a job this summer at a shop. Just a minimum wage one seeing as I've never worked before. Is it going to be possible? When will shops open

    Shops are open.


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    #631
    boring accountant
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭boring accountant


    justshane wrote: »
    I wonder will it be an advantage that it’s a global crisis, rather than a national or European one. The fact we will all be starting from the base might help us recover quickly.

    No that would make it take longer. If every country but us was doing well we’d recover faster as there’d be more demand for our goods.


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